The Wild top line has the biggest line matchup edge on the board tonight, +19.2 against a San Jose team still playing without Alexander Wennberg. We build around the Minnesota top power play unit (MIN PP1) and put Jesper Wallstedt in net behind it. The Ducks and Sabres power plays fill out our second and third builds. With only three games tonight, we take the chalk instead of fighting it.
Last Night
Andrei Vasilevskiy won with 25 saves for 20.0 DK points, and EDM PP1 scored 104.3 DK points, first of the 22 PP1 units on the slate. Kasperi Kapanen paid off with 13.0 DK points at $3,300, but Mavrik Bourque scored only 4.5 at $2,900. MacKenzie Weegar blocked five shots, and Alexandre Carrier blocked two, so we split the blocks picks. Since 10/29, our cash goalie is 6-2, the primary stack has hit 5 of 8, the value plays 4 of 16, the blocks picks 2 of 8 and the props 5-4.
Slate Overview
Lock is 7:00 PM ET, when Columbus and Buffalo drop the puck. Switch tabs for the goalies, the injuries and the line matchup edges.
| Game | Total | Favorite | Implied goals | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ @ BUF | 6.5 | BUF -178 | CBJ 2.84, BUF 3.51 | CBJ back-to-back with travel |
| ANA @ CGY | 6.5 | CGY -150 | ANA 3.00, CGY 3.45 | ANA back-to-back with travel |
| SJS @ MIN | 6.5 | MIN -250 | SJS 2.60, MIN 3.72 | SJS kill ranks 28th |
| Goalie | Status | Win chance | Opp. goals | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesper Wallstedt (MIN) | Expected | 68.3% | 2.60 | $8,400 |
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (BUF) | Confirmed | 61.2% | 2.84 | $8,100 |
| Dustin Wolf (CGY) | Expected | 57.5% | 3.00 | $7,800 |
| Lukas Dostal (ANA) | Expected | 42.5% | 3.45 | $7,600 |
| Jet Greaves (CBJ) | Expected | 38.8% | 3.51 | $7,300 |
| Yaroslav Askarov (SJS) | Expected | 31.7% | 3.72 | $7,000 |
| Player (team, pos) | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Wennberg (SJS, C) | Injured Reserve (upper body) | 6 | Celebrini, Smith, Toffoli |
| Igor Chernyshov (SJS, LW) | Injured Reserve (upper body) | 6 | Celebrini, Smith, Toffoli |
| Filip Gustavsson (MIN, G) | Injured Reserve (hip) | 6 | Wallstedt |
| Alex Lyon (BUF, G) | Injured Reserve (upper body) | 6 | Luukkonen |
| Line | Players | Edge | Main opponent | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN F1 | Kaprizov, Boldy, Eriksson Ek | +19.2 | SJS F1 (45% of 5v5 time) | Full line, 362 min |
| MIN D1 | Hughes, Brodin | +14.7 | SJS F1 (44% of 5v5 time) | Full pair, 190 min |
| MIN F2 | Coleman, McCarron, Brink | +14.0 | SJS F1 (38% of 5v5 time) | Full line, 54 min |
Minnesota has the best special teams spot of the night: its power play ranks 7th in expected goals, and San Jose's kill ranks 28th. A line edge is the share of 5v5 expected goals a line should win against the lines it will see most, minus 50; we use it as a tiebreaker. You can check every number on the NHL team matchups, NHL injuries and NHL line matchups pages.
Starting Goalies
Jesper Wallstedt (MIN, $8,400), cash and GPP
Wallstedt is expected to start, not yet confirmed, and with Filip Gustavsson on injured reserve the Minnesota net is his. San Jose ranks 28th in 5v5 expected goals, and he should face about 25 shots and make 22 or 23 saves. His 9% shutout chance is the best of any starter tonight, so he is our pick in cash and GPP. If Minnesota turns to its backup, switch to Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, who is confirmed for Buffalo. Watch for the morning news on our NHL starting goalies page.
Stacks to Target
MIN PP1: Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, Quinn Hughes ($32,500 for the unit)
Yaroslav Askarov is expected in net for San Jose, and the Wild forwards carry a SMASH tag, which means they rate well above the Sharks forwards they will face. Kaprizov, Boldy and Joel Eriksson Ek win 54.5% of the 5v5 shot attempts when they are on the ice, and Max Shabanov joins them on PP1 against that 28th-ranked kill. Minnesota also comes in on two days of rest. This unit can reach about 109 DK points on a big night, the highest of any stack tonight. It is our cash core and our GPP base.
ANA PP1: Cutter Gauthier, Beckett Sennecke, Leo Carlsson ($33,400 for the unit)
Dustin Wolf is expected to start for Calgary, not yet confirmed. Both Anaheim units carry a SMASH tag against the Flames, and the Gauthier line with Mikael Granlund wins 50.7% of the 5v5 shot attempts when it is on the ice. The power play ranks 15th in expected goals against a kill that also ranks 15th, so special teams give us no help here. The bigger worry is the schedule: the Ducks play the second half of a back-to-back after travel, their third game in four nights. The unit can still reach about 92 DK points on a big night, and we use it in GPP.
BUF PP1: Tage Thompson, Rasmus Dahlin, Jack Quinn ($30,400 for the unit, third stack)
Jet Greaves is expected in net for a Columbus team on the second night of a back-to-back with travel. The Blue Jackets kill ranks 29th in expected goals against, and the Buffalo defense carries a SMASH tag. The Thompson line with Zach Benson and Peyton Krebs wins 52.2% of the 5v5 shot attempts when it is on the ice. This unit can reach about 91 DK points on a big night and costs the least of our three stacks. Play it in GPP, or as a cheaper second stack in cash. Check every unit on our NHL lines page.
Chalk and Pivots
Chalk stack: MIN PP1. Pivot: ANA PP1 ($33,400). We play the Minnesota chalk in our main build, and the Ducks unit gives us a second build that far fewer people will play, with a big-night number close behind.
Chalk goalie: Jesper Wallstedt. Pivot: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen ($8,100). Luukkonen is confirmed, wins about three times in five against Columbus, and fewer people will play him. He pairs well with a Buffalo stack.
Fades
CGY PP1 ($22,400 for the unit). It is the third most popular stack on the slate, but the Calgary power play ranks 30th in expected goals and gets the fewest power play minutes per game in the league. We would rather pay up for a better unit.
Macklin Celebrini ($8,700). He is popular with Wennberg out, but the San Jose forwards carry a TOUGH tag against Minnesota, which means they rate well below the Wild unit they will face. The Sharks power play also ranks 28th in expected goals.
Skaters
Centers
Joel Eriksson Ek ($6,300): cash. He centers the Minnesota top line and plays on PP1, and he should play about 19 and a half minutes with three or four shots. He is the most popular skater in single entry, and we are happy to stay with the field.
Leo Carlsson ($7,100): GPP. Carlsson centers the Anaheim top line, stays on PP1 and should play about 20 minutes. Few people will spend $7,100 on him with the back-to-back, and that is the leverage.
Wingers
Kirill Kaprizov ($8,300): cash. Kaprizov plays on the top line and PP1, should play about 21 minutes and should get three or four shots. He has the highest projection of any skater on the slate.
Tage Thompson ($8,400): GPP. Buffalo uses Thompson on the top line and PP1 for about 19 minutes. He has a 28% chance at five or more shots against a tired Columbus team, and far fewer people will play him than the Wild wingers.
Defensemen
Quinn Hughes ($6,800): cash. Hughes runs the top pair and PP1 and should play almost 29 minutes, the most of any skater tonight. His pair with Jonas Brodin also has one of the three biggest edges on the board.
Zach Werenski ($7,600): GPP. Werenski runs the Columbus top pair and PP1 for about 25 and a half minutes, should get about three shots and has a 23% chance at three or more blocks. The Columbus defense carries a SMASH tag, and he is low-owned.
Value Plays
Bobby Brink (MIN W, $2,800): he plays on the Minnesota second line, which has a +14.0 edge against San Jose, and he also plays on PP2.
Michael McCarron (MIN C, $3,300): he centers that same second line with Blake Coleman and Brink, so he gets the same edge at a price that frees up money for the Wild top unit.
Before Lock
- Wallstedt is expected to start but is not confirmed. If Minnesota goes to its backup, switch to Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, the only confirmed goalie on the slate.
- Wolf, Dostal, Greaves and Askarov are also expected but not confirmed.
- Anaheim and Columbus both play the second half of a back-to-back with travel, and it is the third game in four nights for each.
- Alexander Wennberg and Igor Chernyshov stay out for San Jose, which pushes more minutes to Celebrini, Will Smith and Tyler Toffoli.
Final Thoughts
Our cash core is Wallstedt, Kaprizov, Boldy, Eriksson Ek and Hughes. For GPP, build from MIN PP1 and add ANA PP1 or BUF PP1, use Carlsson, Thompson or Werenski as one-offs, and skip CGY PP1 and Celebrini. All the numbers are on our NHL projections page.
NHL DFS FAQ
Should you pair your goalie with your skater stack?
A goalie from the same team as your stack is a good pair, because a win and goals for that team help both. A goalie who faces your stack works against it. Tonight Wallstedt and MIN PP1 come from the same team, so they score together.
Why do you stack a forward line in NHL DFS?
The three forwards on a line are on the ice together, so one goal often gives two or three of them points. That shared scoring raises the ceiling of a lineup. The Wild top line with Kaprizov, Boldy and Eriksson Ek is the line we stack tonight.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the BankrollSZN NHL tools: today's NHL DFS projections, the NHL lineup optimizer, NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks, today's NHL starting goalies, and NHL odds and player props.