Cleveland plays the second night of a back-to-back without Jarrett Allen, Sam Merrill and Jaylon Tyson, and Mario Hezonja at $4,300 is where almost every NBA DFS cash lineup starts tonight. On DraftKings and FanDuel the Cavaliers' close game with the Knicks is the cash game, and Orlando at Golden State is the quiet tournament spot the field is skipping. Five games is a short card, so the cheap players do most of the work.
Updated 4:58 PM CT: Desmond Bane is out for Orlando with an illness, so Anthony Black ($6,400) takes his guard minutes and should play about 35. Mario Hezonja isn't in Cleveland's expected starting five, but he should still get about 27 minutes, and I'm keeping him in my cash core. Anthony Davis, Draymond Green and Gui Santos are still questionable.
At a Glance
- Cash core: Mario Hezonja, Kyshawn George, Karl-Anthony Towns, Alperen Sengun
- Best GPP pivot: Jalen Johnson ($9,900), back on the active list and low owned next to the Sengun chalk
- Best cheap play: Alex Sarr ($4,800), starting center against an Oklahoma City team without Chet Holmgren
- Check before lock: Anthony Davis (questionable, ankle), Dybantsa and George get his minutes if he sits
- Late swap: Houston at Phoenix, tips 9:00 PM ET
Slate Overview
Switch tabs for tonight's injuries and how last night's picks did.
| Game | Tip (ET) | Spread | Moneyline | Total | Away Total | Home Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKN at ATL | 7:30 PM | ATL -7.5 | BKN +261 / ATL -324 | 228.5 | BKN 110.5 | ATL 118.0 |
| NY at CLE | 8:00 PM | NY -5.5 | NY -204 / CLE +170 | 223.5 | NY 114.5 | CLE 109.0 |
| WSH at OKC | 8:00 PM | OKC -12.5 | WSH +443 / OKC -597 | 222.5 | WSH 105.0 | OKC 117.5 |
| ORL at GS | 8:30 PM | GS -5.5 | ORL +180 / GS -217 | 222.5 | ORL 108.5 | GS 114.0 |
| HOU at PHX | 9:00 PM | HOU -6.5 | HOU -270 / PHX +221 | 223.5 | HOU 115.0 | PHX 108.5 |
| Impact | Player | Status | Role | Who benefits (minutes with to without) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Anthony Davis (WSH F) | Questionable, ankle | 33.1 MIN, 23.4/9.3/2.0 | AJ Dybantsa ($6,300); Kyshawn George ($5,900) |
| 8 | Desmond Bane (ORL G) | Out, illness | 34.0 MIN, 19.8/4.2/3.8 | Anthony Black ($6,400); Jevon Carter ($3,700) |
| 8 | Josh Hart (NY G) | Out, ankle | 30.8 MIN, 11.4/7.7/4.7 | Miles McBride ($3,900) 22.0 to 27.4; Mohamed Diawara ($3,400) 8.1 to 13.4 |
| 8 | Jarrett Allen (CLE C) | Out, knee | 27.5 MIN, 14.6/8.1/1.6 | See NY at CLE |
| 6 | Draymond Green (GS F) | Questionable, elbow | 27.6 MIN, 7.8/5.4/5.7 | Will Richard ($3,900) 17.9 to 26.1; Malevy Leons ($3,000) 9.5 to 12.1 |
| 6 | Jordan Goodwin (PHX G) | Out (doubtful), calf | 22.3 MIN, 8.7/4.8/2.1 | Rasheer Fleming ($3,000) 10.2 to 18.1; Dillon Brooks ($6,300) 30.6 to 33.7 |
| 6 | Sam Merrill (CLE G) | Out, elbow | 24.7 MIN, 11.1/2.4/2.1 | Tyrese Proctor ($3,900) 10.3 to 12.6 |
| Call | Player | Salary | Minutes | DK Pts | Pts per $1K | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash core | Kyshawn George | $5,800 | 39 | 56.00 | 9.7x | Hit |
| Cash core | LeBron James | $7,500 | 32 | 24.25 | 3.2x | Miss |
| Cash core | Rudy Gobert | $5,500 | 25 | 23.75 | 4.3x | Miss |
| Cash core | Grayson Allen | $5,100 | 22 | 9.00 | 1.8x | Miss |
| GPP pivot | Zion Williamson | $7,600 | 36 | 33.00 | 4.3x | Miss |
| GPP pivot | Joel Embiid | $8,700 | 25 | 19.25 | 2.2x | Miss |
| Value play | Bones Hyland | $3,700 | 10 | 5.75 | 1.6x | Miss |
| Avoid | Jaden McDaniels | $6,500 | 40 | 44.00 | 6.8x | Wrong call |
Green is the best scoring spot on the slate, yellow is the middle and red is the weakest. A green spread means a close game.
Nothing on this board is a track meet. I'm building tonight around the injury report.
Last night was rough. Kyshawn George paid off big at 9.7x, but Grayson Allen came off the bench and played 22 minutes, and Bones Hyland got only 10, so two of my cheap calls died on minutes. Season record: Cash core: 32 of 59 at or above the slate average, 5.4x per $1K against a 5.1x slate average. GPP pivots: 20 of 38 at or above the slate average and 7 at 6x or better, 5.0x per $1K against a 5.1x slate average. Avoids: 11 of 27 right, 5.4x per $1K against a 5.1x slate average. The slate average counts every player who played 20+ minutes. A GPP pivot is a Hit at 6x per $1K or better and Solid at or above the slate average. Full results are on the NBA DFS results page.
Full injury report, updated all day: NBA injury report for DFS
Games to Target
New York at Cleveland: 223.5 total, NY -5.5
Cash game. Cleveland ranks 7th in pace and New York 27th, but the spread is close and both teams are missing rotation players, so the minutes are easy to find. Out: Hart, Allen, Merrill, Tyson. Questionable: None.
- Mario Hezonja ($4,300): He has played 27, 23 and 27 minutes in his last three games, up from 15 to 20 earlier in the year, and he put up 15/10/1 against Philadelphia last night. Cleveland has played him about 24 minutes a night without Tyson, and tonight Merrill and Allen are out too. The risk is the back-to-back. At this price I'm not leaving him off a cash lineup.
- Karl-Anthony Towns ($8,500): He has 10 or more rebounds in all eight games this season, and Cleveland has no Allen to keep him off the glass. He played 25, 35 and 35 minutes in his last three. Foul trouble is the real risk here, since he picks up whistles. I love him here.
- Jalen Brunson ($8,200): He dropped 33 in 28 minutes last game and 38 against Chicago the week before. Hart averages almost five assists, so Brunson has to create more of the offense tonight. He's a strong play in both formats.
- Evan Mobley ($7,800): He put up 22/6/4 in 32 minutes last night and 16/10/3 the game before. His minutes stay about the same with Allen out, so the bump is smaller than it looks. He's solid, but I'd rather spend the money on Towns.
- Peyton Watson ($5,700): He is expected to start and should play about 31 minutes, after 28, 22 and 22 in his last three. The betting market is lower on him than we are, so the minutes are the question. I'd play him in GPPs and skip him in cash.
Matchups to target: Hezonja, Towns, Brunson
Matchups to avoid: None
Washington at Oklahoma City: 222.5 total, OKC -12.5
Cash game. Washington ranks 14th in pace and Oklahoma City 20th, and the cheap Wizards starters are too good at their prices to skip, even in a likely blowout. Out: Holmgren, J. Williams, Wallace. Questionable: Davis.
- Kyshawn George ($5,900): He has played 39, 35 and 37 minutes in his last three games and scored 33, 25 and 22. Washington has given him about 36 minutes a night over its last five, per the NBA rotations and minutes tracker. The risks are the 12.5-point spread and the second night of a back-to-back. He's still a lock for me.
- Alex Sarr ($4,800): He went 13/8/3 in 30 minutes last night and 11/9/1 in 23 the game before, and he should play about 24 tonight. Oklahoma City has no Holmgren, so the frontcourt is thinner than usual. Blowout risk cuts both ways for him. He's the best cheap play on the slate.
- Ajay Mitchell ($6,600): He scored 35 in 30 minutes last night, 23 the game before and 20 before that. Oklahoma City has used him about 28 minutes a night without Jalen Williams, and his share of the possessions jumps to about a quarter. I like him a good bit.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,400): He scored 42 and 43 against Cleveland earlier this week, then 28 in 30 minutes last night. Oklahoma City has the second-highest team total on the slate, but a blowout could pull him early. The field is staying away from him, and I get why. He's a GPP-only play.
- AJ Dybantsa ($6,300): He has played 36, 32 and 33 minutes in his last three, but he starts for a team getting 12.5 points. If this gets away in the third quarter, his minutes go first. I'd pass at this price.
Matchups to target: George, Sarr, Ajay Mitchell
Matchups to avoid: Dybantsa
Orlando at Golden State: 222.5 total, GS -5.5
GPP game. Orlando ranks 21st in pace and Golden State 19th, and this is one of the two least popular games on the slate, even with a close spread and Paolo Banchero out for weeks. Out: Banchero, Bane, Suggs, Porzingis, Butler. Questionable: Green, Santos.
- Franz Wagner ($8,700): He has played 38 minutes or more in four of his last five, with 15/8/15 against Phoenix in the last one. Orlando has given him about 35 minutes a night without Banchero. Foul trouble is the one risk I see. I love him in tournaments.
- Stephen Curry ($8,400): He has scored 29, 34, 31 and 44 in his last four games and made at least five threes in each. He sits at about 29 minutes, so the ceiling depends on the shooting. He's my favorite pivot off the Towns chalk at the same price.
- Jase Richardson ($4,700): He is expected to start again, with 26, 29 and 26 minutes in his last three. Orlando has played him about 19 minutes a night without Suggs, and now Banchero is out as well. The box scores are thin, 10, 9 and 4 points. I'd use him as a cheap tournament dart and keep him out of cash.
- Yaxel Lendeborg ($8,000): He scored 37 against the Clippers last week, then 16 and 17 in his next two. He should play about 30 minutes. He's solid in GPPs.
The pace in this game sits right at the league average on our NBA pace stats, so the scoring has to come from the minutes, and Orlando has them to give.
Matchups to target: Franz Wagner, Curry, Richardson
Matchups to avoid: None
Game to fade: Houston at Phoenix. It projects as the slowest game on the slate, with Houston 28th in pace and Phoenix 23rd. Sengun is the one Rocket I'm playing, and I'm skipping the rest of both teams.
Player Props
These are tonight's top player props from our Monte Carlo prop simulation, priced against the DraftKings line. Switch tabs to see how last night's picks did.
| Player | Prop | Odds | Our Number | Model | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scoot Henderson (POR vs SA) | Under 3.5 Assists | -132 | 2.6 | 59.7% | 53.4% | +6.4% |
| Kevin Durant (HOU vs PHX) | Over 3.5 Assists | +118 | 4.2 | 47.8% | 43.0% | +4.9% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC vs WSH) | Over 5.5 Assists | -118 | 6.9 | 55.5% | 50.7% | +4.8% |
| Anthony Black (ORL vs GS) | Under 4.5 Assists | +118 | 4.0 | 49.5% | 43.0% | +6.4% |
| Damian Lillard (POR vs SA) | Over 4.5 Assists | +116 | 5.6 | 49.6% | 43.4% | +6.3% |
| Player | Prop | Odds | Actual | Result | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Spencer | Over 1.5 Threes | +158 | 1 | Loss | +4.7 |
| Jaylen Brown | Over 1.5 Threes | +117 | 2 | Win | +1.0 |
| Darius Acuff Jr. | Over 3.5 Rebounds | +109 | 3 | Loss | +5.1 |
| Jamal Shead | Under 5.5 Assists | -115 | 16 | Loss | -23.4 |
| Jayson Tatum | Under 6.5 Assists | -110 | 9 | Loss | +2.5 |
Last night went 1-4, and the Jamal Shead under was the ugly one at 16 assists.
- Scoot Henderson Under 3.5 assists: In four games without Ja Morant his share of the possessions dropped from about a quarter to under a fifth, while Damian Lillard got more of the ball, so I like the under.
- Kevin Durant Over 3.5 assists: He has four or more assists in only three of his nine games this season, so this is the thinnest of the five, but the price makes it worth a look.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 5.5 assists: He had eight assists in both games against Cleveland this week, but a 12.5-point spread could cut his minutes short, so I'm lukewarm on it.
- Anthony Black Under 4.5 assists: He has gone over this number in three of his five games, and Suggs being out gives him more of the ball, so this pick runs against my read of Orlando's guards.
- Damian Lillard Over 4.5 assists: With Morant out, Lillard's minutes rise to about 32 a night and his share of the possessions goes up, and I like this one.
Season record on these props: 38-42, -3.1 units at one unit each. Closing line value: +1.9 points of win probability on average, and the closing price moved our way on 47 of 75 picks.
Our Number is the simulation's average for that stat. Model and Market are the chance the bet wins, with the market's vig removed. CLV is how many points of win probability the DraftKings closing line moved toward our side after we posted the pick.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Top Plays by Position
| Pos | Rank | Player | Matchup | Salary | Min | Field | Play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | 1 | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | OKC vs WSH | $10,400 | 32 | Low | GPP |
| PG | 2 | Jalen Brunson | NY at CLE | $8,200 | 35 | Chalk | Cash |
| PG | 3 | Stephen Curry | GS vs ORL | $8,400 | 29 | Popular | GPP |
| SG | 1 | Donovan Mitchell | CLE vs NY | $8,100 | 35 | Popular | GPP |
| SG | 2 | Kyshawn George | WSH at OKC | $5,900 | 32 | Chalk | Cash |
| SG | 3 | Jalen Green | PHX vs HOU | $6,200 | 28 | Mid | GPP |
| SF | 1 | Franz Wagner | ORL at GS | $8,700 | 38 | Popular | Cash |
| SF | 2 | Michael Porter Jr. | BKN at ATL | $7,300 | 33 | Popular | Cash |
| SF | 3 | Yaxel Lendeborg | GS vs ORL | $8,000 | 30 | Mid | GPP |
| PF | 1 | Alperen Sengun | HOU at PHX | $8,900 | 33 | Chalk | Cash |
| PF | 2 | Jalen Johnson | ATL vs BKN | $9,900 | 34 | Low | GPP |
| PF | 3 | Karl-Anthony Towns | NY at CLE | $8,500 | 31 | Popular | Cash |
| C | 1 | Onyeka Okongwu | ATL vs BKN | $6,800 | 31 | Low | GPP |
| C | 2 | Wendell Carter Jr. | ORL at GS | $6,500 | 35 | Mid | GPP |
| C | 3 | Isaiah Hartenstein | OKC vs WSH | $6,100 | 25 | Mid | GPP |
| Pos | Rank | Player | Matchup | Salary | Min | Field | Play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | 1 | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | OKC vs WSH | $10,400 | 31 | Mid | GPP |
| PG | 2 | Jalen Brunson | NY at CLE | $8,100 | 34 | Popular | Cash |
| PG | 3 | Jamal Murray | DEN at IND | $8,300 | 35 | Popular | GPP |
| SG | 1 | Donovan Mitchell | CLE vs NY | $7,800 | 35 | Mid | GPP |
| SG | 2 | Dyson Daniels | ATL vs BKN | $6,800 | 30 | Popular | GPP |
| SG | 3 | Dylan Harper | SA at POR | $6,600 | 33 | Mid | GPP |
| SF | 1 | Franz Wagner | ORL at GS | $8,300 | 37 | Chalk | Cash |
| SF | 2 | Deni Avdija | POR vs SA | $8,600 | 33 | Popular | GPP |
| SF | 3 | Michael Porter | BKN at ATL | $7,100 | 33 | Popular | GPP |
| PF | 1 | Jalen Johnson | ATL vs BKN | $9,300 | 34 | Popular | GPP |
| PF | 2 | Anthony Davis | WSH at OKC | $9,500 | 31 | Low | GPP |
| PF | 3 | Evan Mobley | CLE vs NY | $7,700 | 34 | Mid | GPP |
| C | 1 | Victor Wembanyama | SA at POR | $12,500 | 30 | Popular | GPP |
| C | 2 | Nikola Jokic | DEN at IND | $12,000 | 34 | Popular | GPP |
| C | 3 | Alperen Sengun | HOU at PHX | $8,800 | 34 | Chalk | Cash |
Min is projected minutes. Field is how popular the player should be: Chalk, Popular, Mid or Low.
The FanDuel slate adds Denver at Indiana and San Antonio at Portland, so Jokic, Wembanyama and Murray show up there and nowhere on DraftKings. Franz Wagner is chalk on FanDuel at $8,300, while on DraftKings at $8,700 he is only popular, and that gap makes him a better tournament play on DraftKings.
Every projection lives on today's NBA DFS projections, and you can build around these in the free NBA lineup optimizer.
Before Lock
- Anthony Davis (ankle): He is questionable after missing last night. If he plays, he starts and soaks up the Washington frontcourt touches. If he sits, AJ Dybantsa ($6,300) and Kyshawn George ($5,900) take his minutes, and George becomes an even stronger cash play.
- Draymond Green (elbow): If he plays, Golden State stays the same. If he sits, Will Richard ($3,900) goes from 17.9 to 26.1 minutes.
- Gui Santos (knee): He is questionable and listed as an expected starter. If he sits, Stephen Curry ($8,400) goes from 30.3 to 32.7 minutes.
- Back-to-back: Hezonja and George are both on the second night of a back-to-back, and so are Atlanta and Oklahoma City. Check the minutes news before lock.
- Late swap: Houston at Phoenix tips last at 9:00 PM ET, so leave room to swap off Sengun if late news hits. Jalen Johnson plays in the first game, Brooklyn at Atlanta, and he is back on the official active list after missing three games with an ankle injury.
Final Thoughts
The cash build starts with Hezonja and George, two cheap players in line for big minutes because of injuries around them. Towns and Sengun give the lineup two big men who rebound at a high level, so the floor holds. The risk I accept is the back-to-back for Hezonja and George and a blowout in Oklahoma City.
In tournaments, Jalen Johnson at $9,900 is the pivot off Sengun, because the field is loading up on Sengun and leaving Johnson alone. Jase Richardson at $4,700 is the cheap way into Orlando at Golden State, the game nobody is stacking.
More slates in the NBA DFS articles archive.
NBA DFS FAQ
What is late swap in NBA DFS?
Late swap lets you change players in your lineup until each player's own game tips off. Tonight that matters for Houston at Phoenix, which tips last at 9:00 PM ET. Keep one or two flexible spots for players in that game, so you can react to late news from the earlier games.
What is a GPP pivot in NBA DFS?
A GPP pivot is a player you use instead of a popular player at about the same price. You give up a little safety, but if the pivot hits and the chalk misses, you pass most of the field. Tonight Jalen Johnson at $9,900 is my pivot off Alperen Sengun at $8,900.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN NBA tools: today's NBA DFS projections, the free NBA lineup optimizer, the NBA injury report for DFS, the NBA rotations and minutes tracker, and NBA pace stats.