Vancouver brings the weakest penalty kill in the league to Edmonton tonight, and the Oilers power play ranks second in expected goals. That mismatch makes the Edmonton top power play unit (EDM PP1) our main stack, with Pyotr Kochetkov in goal for Carolina against Chicago. Dallas PP1 and a Tampa Bay unit few people will play round out the stacks, and a nine-game board gives us room for that contrarian third build.
Last Night
Jesper Wallstedt won with 23 saves for 18.6 DK points, and MIN PP1 scored 97.6 DK points, first of the six PP1 units we tracked. The value plays missed: Bobby Brink scored 2.8 at $2,800 and Michael McCarron 1.3 at $3,300. Since 10/29, our cash goalie is 7-2, the primary stack has hit 6 of 9, the value plays 4 of 18, the blocks picks 2 of 8 and the props 5-4.
Slate Overview
Lock is 7:00 PM ET, when Ottawa, the Islanders and Toronto start the first three games. Switch tabs for the goalies, the injuries, the line matchup edges and the blocks picks.
| Game | Total | Favorite | Implied goals | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA @ OTT | 6.5 | UTA -125 | UTA 3.40, OTT 3.21 | none |
| NJD @ NYI | 5.5 | NJD -146 | NJD 3.08, NYI 2.69 | NYI kill ranks 27th |
| MTL @ TOR | 6.5 | MTL -120 | MTL 3.39, TOR 3.26 | TOR on three days of rest |
| CHI @ CAR | 6.5 | CAR -450 | CHI 2.22, CAR 4.04 | CHI third game in four nights |
| SJS @ DAL | 6.5 | DAL -310 | SJS 2.41, DAL 3.79 | SJS back-to-back with travel |
| TBL @ MIN | 6.5 | TBL -134 | TBL 3.43, MIN 3.14 | MIN back-to-back |
| PIT @ LAK | 6.5 | LAK -120 | PIT 3.14, LAK 3.27 | none |
| DET @ COL | 6.5 | COL -230 | DET 2.69, COL 3.72 | Larkin out for DET |
| VAN @ EDM | 6.5 | EDM -360 | VAN 2.67, EDM 4.34 | VAN kill ranks 32nd |
| Goalie | Status | Win chance | Opp. goals | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pyotr Kochetkov (CAR) | Expected | 78.3% | 2.22 | $8,500 |
| Devon Levi (EDM) | Confirmed | 74.8% | 2.68 | $8,400 |
| Jake Oettinger (DAL) | Confirmed | 72.3% | 2.41 | $8,100 |
| MacKenzie Blackwood (COL) | Expected | 66.8% | 2.69 | $8,000 |
| Jake Allen (NJD) | Confirmed | 56.9% | 2.70 | $8,300 |
| Dennis Hildeby (TBL) | Confirmed | 54.8% | 3.14 | $7,400 |
| Karel Vejmelka (UTA) | Expected | 53.1% | 3.21 | $7,800 |
| Jacob Fowler (MTL) | Confirmed | 52.2% | 3.26 | $8,200 |
| Anton Forsberg (LAK) | Expected | 52.2% | 3.14 | $7,700 |
| Arturs Silovs (PIT) | Expected | 47.8% | 3.27 | $7,600 |
| Sergei Bobrovsky (TOR) | Confirmed | 47.8% | 3.39 | $7,200 |
| Samuel Ersson (OTT) | Confirmed | 46.9% | 3.40 | $7,500 |
| Calvin Pickard (MIN) | Confirmed | 45.2% | 3.43 | $7,900 |
| Ilya Sorokin (NYI) | Confirmed | 43.2% | 3.08 | $7,000 |
| John Gibson (DET) | Expected | 33.2% | 3.72 | $7,300 |
| Alex Nedeljkovic (SJS) | Expected | 27.7% | 3.79 | $7,100 |
| Leevi Meriläinen (VAN) | Expected | 25.2% | 4.35 | $6,900 |
| Spencer Knight (CHI) | Expected | 21.7% | 4.04 | $6,900 |
| Player (team, pos) | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Larkin (DET, C) | Injured Reserve (suspension) | 9 | DeBrincat, Arvidsson, Raymond |
| Kirill Marchenko (TOR, RW) | Injured Reserve (lower body) | 8 | Matthews, Nylander, Roslovic |
| Bryan Rust (PIT, RW) | Injured Reserve (lower body) | 8 | Rakell, Crosby, Novak |
| Miro Heiskanen (DAL, D) | Out (upper body) | 8 | Lundkvist, Bichsel, Harley |
| Zach Hyman (EDM, LW) | Injured Reserve (neck) | 8 | Podkolzin, McDavid, Draisaitl |
| John Tavares (TOR, C) | Injured Reserve (lower body) | 8 | Matthews, Nylander, Roslovic |
| Patrick Kane (CHI, RW) | Out (upper body) | 7 | Teravainen, Mangiapane, Bedard |
| Mats Zuccarello (LAK, RW) | Injured Reserve (upper body) | 7 | Moore, Panarin, Kempe |
| Line | Players | Edge | Main opponent | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR F1 | Carrier, Aho, Svechnikov | +18.8 | CHI F1 (46% of 5v5 time) | Full line, 170 min |
| EDM F1 | McDavid, Draisaitl, Podkolzin | +17.7 | VAN F1 (44% of 5v5 time) | Full line, 230 min |
| NJD F2 | Bratt, Hughes, Gritsyuk | +11.1 | NYI F1 (42% of 5v5 time) | Full line, 139 min |
| Player | Pair | PP | Blocks | 3+ chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moritz Seider (DET, $5,200) | D1 | PP1 | 2.6 | 48.9% |
| MacKenzie Weegar (UTA, $4,400) | D1 | PP2 | 2.2 | 39.8% |
Dallas has the other big special teams spot: its power play ranks first in expected goals, and the San Jose kill ranks 30th. A line edge is the share of 5v5 expected goals a line should win against the lines it will see most, minus 50; we use it as a tiebreaker. You can check every number on the NHL team matchups, NHL injuries and NHL line matchups pages.
Starting Goalies
Pyotr Kochetkov (CAR, $8,500), cash and GPP
Kochetkov is expected to start, not yet confirmed. Chicago ranks 31st in 5v5 expected goals, and he should face about 20 shots and make 17 or 18 saves. His 13% shutout chance is the best of any starter tonight, so he is our pick in both formats even at the top goalie salary. If Carolina turns to its backup, switch to Jake Oettinger, who is confirmed for Dallas against a San Jose team on a back-to-back. Watch our NHL starting goalies page before lock.
Stacks to Target
EDM PP1: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Kasperi Kapanen ($35,700 for the unit)
Leevi Meriläinen is expected in net for Vancouver, not yet confirmed. The Oilers forwards and defense both carry a SMASH tag, which means they rate well above the Canucks units they face. The McDavid line with Vasily Podkolzin wins 56% of the 5v5 shot attempts when it is on the ice, and the power play gets the worst kill in the league. This unit can reach about 108 DK points on a big night, the most of any stack. Spending $35,700 on one unit hurts, but this is the unit worth the pain. It is the chalk, our cash core and our GPP base.
DAL PP1: Jason Robertson, Mikko Rantanen, Wyatt Johnston, Thomas Harley, Roope Hintz ($29,400 for the unit)
Alex Nedeljkovic is expected for San Jose, and the Sharks play the second half of a back-to-back after travel, their third game in four nights. The Dallas forwards carry a SMASH tag, and the Robertson line with Hintz and Arttu Hyry wins 51.6% of the 5v5 shot attempts when it is on the ice. With Miro Heiskanen out, Harley picks up more of the blue line work. The unit can reach about 103 DK points on a big night. Use it as the second stack in GPP, or next to Edmonton pieces in cash.
TBL PP1: Nikita Kucherov, Jake Guentzel, Brayden Point, John Carlson ($26,900 for the unit, contrarian)
Calvin Pickard is confirmed for Minnesota, Dennis Hildeby is confirmed for Tampa, and the Wild play the second night of a back-to-back. The Kucherov line wins 54.8% of the 5v5 shot attempts when it is on the ice. Special teams are close to even here (the Tampa power play ranks 11th, the Minnesota kill 15th), so we are betting on the line and the tired opponent. The unit can reach about 87 DK points on a big night, and far fewer people will play it than the top two. Keep it to GPP.
Check every unit on our NHL lines page.
Value Stack
DAL PP2: Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, David Perron, Esa Lindell, Justin Hryckowian ($14,300 for the unit)
This is the cheapest unit with a big-night number in the top half of the slate, about 53 DK points. It saves salary next to EDM PP1 and still gets the same tired Sharks team.
Chalk and Pivots
Chalk stack: EDM PP1. Pivot: COL PP1 ($31,000). We play the Edmonton chalk in our main build, and the Colorado unit with Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar is the second build at a similar price with far less ownership.
Chalk goalie: MacKenzie Blackwood. Pivot: Pyotr Kochetkov ($8,500). Kochetkov has the better win chance and the better shutout chance, and fewer people will play him.
Fades
Cole Caufield ($6,700). He is one of the most popular wingers on the slate, but the Montreal power play ranks 26th in expected goals. We would rather spend that salary on a top power play.
Skaters
Centers
Connor McDavid ($9,400): cash. He centers the top line, runs PP1 and should play about 21 minutes with three or four shots. He has the highest projection on the slate, and the field is on him.
Jack Hughes ($8,100): GPP. Hughes centers the New Jersey second line and plays PP1, and that line has one of the biggest edges on the board. He should get three or four shots with a 28% chance at five or more, and he is low-owned.
Wingers
Leon Draisaitl ($9,100): cash. Edmonton plays him next to McDavid at even strength and on PP1 for about 20 minutes. He has a 26% chance at five or more shots.
Alex DeBrincat ($7,200): GPP. With Dylan Larkin suspended, DeBrincat gets more top line and PP1 work, and his teammates' season numbers do not show that yet. He should get three or four shots, and few people will play him in Colorado.
Defensemen
Thomas Harley ($5,100): cash. Harley runs the Dallas top pair and PP1 for about 25 minutes, and Heiskanen's absence adds to that. He has a 31% chance at three or more blocks, which gives him a floor at this price.
Cale Makar ($7,000): GPP. Makar plays about 24 minutes on the top pair and PP1, and the Colorado defense carries a SMASH tag against Detroit. He is low-owned at $7,000.
Value Plays
William Carrier (CAR W, $3,400): he plays on the Carolina top line with Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov, the top line with the biggest edge on the board tonight.
T.J. Hughes (COL W, $3,400): he plays on the Colorado second line and on PP1 with MacKinnon and Makar, a top unit role at a price close to the minimum.
Before Lock
- Kochetkov is still only expected. If Carolina goes to its backup, switch to Oettinger, who is confirmed.
- San Jose plays a back-to-back after travel and its third game in four nights. Minnesota is on a back-to-back at home, and Chicago plays its third game in four nights.
- Zach Hyman and John Tavares carry an estimated return of today. If either one plays, the Edmonton or Toronto lines change.
- Devon Levi starts for Edmonton in place of Tristan Jarry, and Gibson carries a day-to-day tag. Heiskanen is out for Dallas, and Larkin's suspension moves DeBrincat, Viktor Arvidsson and Lucas Raymond up in Detroit.
Final Thoughts
Our cash core is Kochetkov, McDavid, Draisaitl, Bouchard and Harley. For GPP, build from EDM PP1, add DAL PP1 or TBL PP1, use Jack Hughes, DeBrincat or Makar as one-offs, and skip Caufield. All the numbers are on our NHL projections page.
NHL DFS FAQ
What is the difference between a cash and a GPP NHL lineup?
A cash lineup needs a safe score, so it uses players with a high floor, big minutes and a PP1 role, plus the goalie most likely to win. A GPP lineup needs a big score that few other people have, so it stacks a line or power play and adds low-owned players. Tonight our cash builds stay with the Edmonton chalk, and our GPP builds add Tampa Bay.
When are NHL starting goalies confirmed?
Most teams name the starter after the morning skate, and some wait until warmups. Until then a goalie is only expected to start. Tonight Kochetkov and Blackwood are still only expected, so check the news before lock.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the BankrollSZN NHL tools: today's NHL DFS projections, the NHL lineup optimizer, NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks, today's NHL starting goalies, and NHL odds and player props.