Sacramento has to deal with Giannis Antetokounmpo in a game with a 237.5 total, and few NBA DFS players are clicking Domantas Sabonis on the other side of it. On DraftKings and FanDuel, the cash money runs through Brooklyn at Dallas, where Michael Porter Jr. and Danny Wolf are the popular plays. My tournament plan sits in Miami at Sacramento and in New Orleans at the Clippers, the only coin flip on a five game Sunday card.
Updated 4:55 PM CT: Keegan Murray is active for Sacramento, so Nique Clifford goes back to the bench and I'm off him. Keyonte George and Lauri Markkanen are still questionable for Utah, and Isaiah Collier is the value play if George sits.
At a Glance
- Cash core: Ayo Dosunmu, Michael Porter Jr., Danny Wolf, Brook Lopez
- Best GPP pivot: Domantas Sabonis ($9,700), Maxime Raynaud is out and the field is looking elsewhere
- Best cheap play: Nolan Traore ($4,900), a starter with Egor Demin and Mikel Brown Jr. out
- Check before lock: Keyonte George (questionable, illness), Isaiah Collier picks up big minutes if he sits
- Late swap: Miami at Sacramento and New Orleans at LA Clippers, both tip 9:00 PM ET
Slate Overview
Switch tabs for tonight's injuries and how last night's picks did.
| Game | Tip (ET) | Spread | Moneyline | Total | Away Total | Home Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTAH at MIN | 7:00 PM | MIN -12.5 | UTAH +470 / MIN -650 | 221.5 | UTAH 104.5 | MIN 117.0 |
| BKN at DAL | 7:30 PM | DAL -7.5 | BKN +261 / DAL -324 | 222.5 | BKN 107.5 | DAL 115.0 |
| BOS at MIL | 8:00 PM | BOS -13.5 | BOS -750 / MIL +530 | 221.5 | BOS 117.5 | MIL 104.0 |
| MIA at SAC | 9:00 PM | MIA -10.5 | MIA -446 / SAC +346 | 237.5 | MIA 124.0 | SAC 113.5 |
| NO at LAC | 9:00 PM | NO -1.5 | NO -121 / LAC +103 | 226.5 | NO 114.0 | LAC 112.5 |
| Impact | Player | Status | Role | Who benefits (minutes with to without) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Lauri Markkanen (UTAH F) | Questionable, wrist | 33.8 MIN, 25.3/6.9/2.1 | Kyle Filipowski ($4,500) 18.7 to 26.8; Ace Bailey ($6,400) 25.5 to 30.9 |
| 8 | Keyonte George (UTAH G) | Questionable, illness | 33.0 MIN, 23.3/3.8/6.2 | Isaiah Collier ($4,300) 22.2 to 32.2; Brice Sensabaugh ($3,500) 20.7 to 27.9 |
| 8 | Brandon Ingram (LAC F) | Out, Achilles | 33.5 MIN, 20.9/5.4/3.6 | Rui Hachimura ($6,000); Derrick Jones Jr. ($5,300) |
| 6 | Keegan Murray (SAC F) | Active, ankle | 34.0 MIN, 13.4/5.5/1.6 | No change, he plays |
| 6 | Mikel Brown Jr. (BKN G) | Out | 23.3 MIN, 12.9/2.1/3.9 | Keon Ellis ($3,600); Terance Mann ($3,200) |
| 6 | Isaiah Jackson (LAC F) | Out, groin | 17.5 MIN, 7.8/5.1/1.6 | Brook Lopez ($4,600) 25.9 to 28.9 |
| Call | Player | Salary | Minutes | DK Pts | Pts per $1K | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash core | Karl-Anthony Towns | $8,500 | 34 | 56.25 | 6.6x | Hit |
| Cash core | Kyshawn George | $5,900 | 30 | 38.25 | 6.5x | Hit |
| Cash core | Alperen Sengun | $8,900 | 32 | 31.50 | 3.5x | Miss |
| Cash core | Mario Hezonja | $4,300 | 19 | 7.75 | 1.8x | Miss |
| GPP pivot | Franz Wagner | $8,700 | 40 | 58.00 | 6.7x | Hit |
| GPP pivot | Jalen Johnson | $9,900 | 36 | 48.25 | 4.9x | Miss |
| Value play | Jase Richardson | $4,700 | 30 | 12.50 | 2.7x | Miss |
| Value play | Alexandre Sarr | $4,800 | 0 | 0 | Did not play | |
| Avoid | AJ Dybantsa | $6,300 | 31 | 30.00 | 4.8x | Right call |
Green is the best scoring spot on the slate, yellow is the middle and red is the weakest. A green spread means a close game.
Three of the five games carry a spread of 10 points or more, so the close New Orleans at Clippers game matters more than its total suggests.
Franz Wagner played 40 minutes and scored 58 DraftKings points, and Karl-Anthony Towns hit too. Mario Hezonja was the miss I own: he got only 19 minutes and scored 7.75 points, and Alexandre Sarr did not play at all. Season record: Cash core: 34 of 63 at or above the slate average, 5.3x per $1K against a 5.1x slate average. GPP pivots: 21 of 40 at or above the slate average and 8 at 6x or better, 5.0x per $1K against a 5.0x slate average. Avoids: 12 of 28 right, 5.4x per $1K against a 5.1x slate average. The slate average counts every player who played 20+ minutes. A GPP pivot is a Hit at 6x per $1K or better and Solid at or above the slate average. Full results are on the NBA DFS results page.
Full injury report, updated all day: NBA injury report for DFS
Games to Target
Brooklyn at Dallas: 222.5 total, DAL -7.5
Cash game. Dallas ranks 11th in pace and Brooklyn 23rd, and with two Nets guards out, the Brooklyn minutes are easy to read. Out: Brown Jr., Demin. Questionable: None.
- Michael Porter Jr. ($7,200): He has played 34.7 minutes a night over Brooklyn's last five games on the NBA rotations and minutes tracker, and he went 25/9/1 in 36 minutes against Atlanta last night. This is the second night of a back-to-back, which is the one thing I don't love. I still love him in cash.
- Danny Wolf ($3,000): He started last night and put up 11 points and 9 rebounds in 31 minutes, after 19 and 12 minutes in his two games before that. At the minimum salary, he should play about 19 minutes off the bench. The minutes have swung around a lot, and it is a back-to-back. He's fine for cash at this price.
- Nolan Traore ($4,900): He had 19 points and four steals in 23 minutes last night, and he has started six straight. With Demin and Brown Jr. both out, he should play about 27 minutes. I like him a good bit.
- Cooper Flagg ($10,100): He went 21/10/7 in 33 minutes against Utah on Friday after back-to-back 40 minute games. Dallas is a 7.5 point favorite, so the fourth quarter could get quiet, but the field is not paying up for him like they are for Giannis. He's a strong tournament play.
- Day'Ron Sharpe ($5,100): The 12/10/13 line last night looks great, but he carries real foul trouble risk tonight, and Wolf is now eating into the center minutes. I'd pass.
Matchups to target: Porter Jr., Wolf, Traore
Matchups to avoid: Sharpe
Miami at Sacramento: 237.5 total, MIA -10.5
GPP game. Miami ranks 2nd in pace and Sacramento 13th, and this game projects as one of the fastest on the board in our NBA pace stats. The total is 11 points higher than any other game on the main slate, yet the field is leaving the Kings side alone. Out: Raynaud. Questionable: None.
- Domantas Sabonis ($9,700): With Raynaud out, his minutes jump from 26.5 to 34.9 a night, and he has pulled down 12, 17 and 7 rebounds in his last three. He carries real foul trouble risk, and Sacramento could lose by double digits. I still love him as the pivot off Giannis.
- Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300): He went 27/14/6 in 41 minutes against the Clippers on Wednesday and 20/14/4 in 31 minutes on Thursday. The 10.5 point spread is the only thing that can cap his minutes. He's a tournament play, not a cash lock.
- Darius Acuff Jr. ($8,400): He has gone 22/3/8, 22/3/12 and 25/5/6 in his last three, with 33 to 42 minutes each night. He is the Kings' main ball handler in a fast game. I like him here.
- Zach LaVine ($6,600): He has scored 14, 21 and 23 in his last three and played 28 to 35 minutes in each. The salary is fair, and he's solid.
- De'Andre Hunter ($5,800): He scored 14 points in 38 minutes and then 6 points in 36 minutes in his last two. He has a high foul tier tonight, and he starts for the team on the wrong side of a 10.5 point spread. I do not like him in this spot.
Matchups to target: Sabonis, Giannis, Acuff
Matchups to avoid: Hunter
New Orleans at LA Clippers: 226.5 total, NO -1.5
GPP game. New Orleans ranks 4th in pace and the Clippers 25th, and this is the only game on the slate inside two points, so both starting groups should stay on the floor late. Out: Ingram, Jackson, Missi. Questionable: None.
- Darius Garland ($8,500): He went 26/1/7 in 39 minutes against Miami on Wednesday and has played 31 or more minutes in seven of his last eight. With Ingram out, Garland gets more of the offense, and the field is not crowding onto him. I love him in tournaments.
- Brook Lopez ($4,600): With Isaiah Jackson out, his minutes go from 25.9 to 28.9 a night, and he went 20/8 in 35 minutes against Miami in his last game. He is cheap and starting in the closest game on the slate. I like this spot a good bit.
- Jeremiah Fears ($6,400): He has scored 24, 19 and 12 in his last three, with 34 to 38 minutes each night. He can stuff the box score. He's a good tournament play.
- Zion Williamson ($7,500): Yves Missi is out, and Zion plays more without him, 32.8 minutes a night against 29.5. He scored 23 and 25 in two of his last three. He's solid and low-owned.
- Trey Murphy III ($7,100): He scored 10 points in 34 minutes on Friday, and at this salary he needs more than that. I'd pass.
Matchups to target: Garland, Lopez, Fears
Matchups to avoid: None
Game to fade: Boston at Milwaukee. Boston ranks 30th in pace, and this is the only game on the slate in the Slow tier. Milwaukee is a 13.5 point underdog, so the popular Brayden Burries and Tyler Herro could sit for the fourth quarter.
Player Props
These are tonight's top player props from our Monte Carlo prop simulation, priced against the DraftKings line. Switch tabs to see how last night's picks did.
| Player | Prop | Odds | Our Number | Model | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Fears (NO vs LAC) | Over 3.5 Assists | +112 | 4.7 | 51.2% | 44.2% | +7.0% |
| Keaton Wagler (LAC vs NO) | Under 3.5 Rebounds | -102 | 3.2 | 52.2% | 47.4% | +4.9% |
| Austin Reaves (LAL vs DET) | Under 5.5 Assists | -144 | 4.4 | 60.3% | 55.2% | +5.1% |
| Cooper Flagg (DAL vs BKN) | Under 1.5 Threes | -147 | 1.0 | 60.7% | 55.8% | +5.0% |
| Darius Acuff Jr. (SAC vs MIA) | Over 2.5 Rebounds | -162 | 4.0 | 63.9% | 58.0% | +6.0% |
| Player | Prop | Odds | Actual | Result | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scoot Henderson | Under 3.5 Assists | -132 | 1 | Win | +14.7 |
| Kevin Durant | Over 3.5 Assists | +118 | 3 | Loss | +0.4 |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Over 5.5 Assists | -118 | 9 | Win | +3.8 |
| Anthony Black | Under 4.5 Assists | +118 | 6 | Loss | +2.7 |
| Damian Lillard | Over 4.5 Assists | +116 | 7 | Win | +3.3 |
Last night went 3 and 2, and Kevin Durant fell one assist short of the over.
- Jeremiah Fears Over 3.5 Assists: He had seven assists against Memphis on 11/02 and should play about 29 minutes in the closest game of the night, so I like the over.
- Keaton Wagler Under 3.5 Rebounds: He comes off the bench and should play only about 21 minutes, which keeps his rebound chances low, and I'm fine with the under.
- Austin Reaves Under 5.5 Assists: We posted this before Luka Doncic was listed out with a back injury, and Reaves runs more of the offense without him, so this under now runs against the news and I'd pass on it.
- Cooper Flagg Under 1.5 Threes: He has made 1, 0, 0, 0 and 2 threes in his last five games, so the under fits even though I like him as a DFS play.
- Darius Acuff Jr. Over 2.5 Rebounds: He has grabbed three or more rebounds in each of his last five games, and a fast game only adds chances, so give me the over.
Season record on these props: 41-44, -2.3 units at one unit each. Closing line value: +2.1 points of win probability on average, and the closing price moved our way on 52 of 80 picks.
Our Number is the simulation's average for that stat. Model and Market are the chance the bet wins, with the market's vig removed. CLV is how many points of win probability the DraftKings closing line moved toward our side after we posted the pick.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Top Plays by Position
| Pos | Rank | Player | Matchup | Salary | Min | Field | Play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | 1 | Darius Acuff Jr. | SAC vs MIA | $8,400 | 34 | Popular | Cash |
| PG | 2 | LaMelo Ball | MIN vs UTAH | $8,000 | 29 | Chalk | Cash |
| PG | 3 | Darius Garland | LAC vs NO | $8,500 | 33 | Mid | GPP |
| SG | 1 | Zach LaVine | SAC vs MIA | $6,600 | 30 | Popular | Cash |
| SG | 2 | Trey Murphy III | NO at LAC | $7,100 | 32 | Mid | GPP |
| SG | 3 | Pelle Larsson | MIA at SAC | $5,400 | 29 | Mid | GPP |
| SF | 1 | Jayson Tatum | BOS at MIL | $10,000 | 32 | Popular | Cash |
| SF | 2 | Cooper Flagg | DAL vs BKN | $10,100 | 35 | Mid | GPP |
| SF | 3 | Michael Porter Jr. | BKN at DAL | $7,200 | 34 | Chalk | Cash |
| PF | 1 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | MIA at SAC | $11,300 | 32 | Popular | GPP |
| PF | 2 | Julius Randle | BKN at DAL | $7,500 | 34 | Popular | Cash |
| PF | 3 | Lauri Markkanen | UTAH at MIN | $7,500 | 30 | Mid | GPP |
| C | 1 | Domantas Sabonis | SAC vs MIA | $9,700 | 32 | Low | GPP |
| C | 2 | Bam Adebayo | MIA at SAC | $8,100 | 33 | Popular | GPP |
| C | 3 | Rudy Gobert | MIN vs UTAH | $5,600 | 28 | Mid | GPP |
| Pos | Rank | Player | Matchup | Salary | Min | Field | Play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | 1 | Cade Cunningham | DET vs LAL | $9,800 | 34 | Chalk | Cash |
| PG | 2 | Tyrese Maxey | PHI at CHI | $9,300 | 34 | Mid | GPP |
| PG | 3 | Darius Acuff | SAC vs MIA | $7,900 | 34 | Popular | GPP |
| SG | 1 | Austin Reaves | LAL at DET | $7,500 | 36 | Popular | Cash |
| SG | 2 | Ausar Thompson | DET vs LAL | $6,100 | 27 | Popular | Cash |
| SG | 3 | Darryn Peterson | UTAH at MIN | $5,600 | 29 | Popular | Cash |
| SF | 1 | Cooper Flagg | DAL vs BKN | $10,100 | 35 | Popular | GPP |
| SF | 2 | Jayson Tatum | BOS at MIL | $10,000 | 32 | Popular | GPP |
| SF | 3 | Jaylen Brown | PHI at CHI | $7,800 | 33 | Mid | GPP |
| PF | 1 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | MIA at SAC | $11,700 | 32 | Popular | GPP |
| PF | 2 | LeBron James | PHI at CHI | $8,100 | 31 | Popular | GPP |
| PF | 3 | Caleb Wilson | CHI vs PHI | $7,200 | 33 | Chalk | Cash |
| C | 1 | Joel Embiid | PHI at CHI | $8,700 | 30 | Mid | GPP |
| C | 2 | Bam Adebayo | MIA at SAC | $8,000 | 33 | Chalk | Cash |
| C | 3 | Domantas Sabonis | SAC vs MIA | $8,200 | 32 | Mid | GPP |
Min is projected minutes. Field is how popular the player should be: Chalk, Popular, Mid or Low.
The FanDuel slate adds Lakers at Detroit and the early Philadelphia at Chicago game, so Cade Cunningham and Tyrese Maxey lead its point guards. Sabonis is Low on DraftKings and Mid on FanDuel, so the leverage on him is bigger on DraftKings.
Every projection lives on today's NBA DFS projections, and you can build around these in the free NBA lineup optimizer.
Before Lock
- Keyonte George (illness): If he plays, nothing changes for Utah. If he sits, Isaiah Collier ($4,300) goes from 22.2 to 32.2 minutes and becomes a strong value play.
- Lauri Markkanen (wrist): If he plays, keep the Utah forwards as they are. If he sits, Kyle Filipowski ($4,500) goes from 18.7 to 26.8 minutes.
- Keegan Murray (ankle): He is active, so Sacramento's rotation stays the same. Nique Clifford ($3,100) should play only a few minutes off the bench, so I'm leaving him out.
- Back-to-back: Porter Jr. and Wolf played last night in Atlanta, so watch for any rest news from Brooklyn.
- Late swap: Miami at Sacramento and New Orleans at LA Clippers tip last at 9:00 PM ET, so keep Sabonis, Garland and Lopez in late slots where you can.
Final Thoughts
Ayo Dosunmu has played 39, 34 and 37 minutes in his last three games with Anthony Edwards out, and he scored 26 points in 39 minutes against New Orleans on Friday. The risk is the 12.5 point spread, but at his price I want those minutes. Porter Jr. has played 36 to 38 minutes in each of his last three, so I'll take the back-to-back risk with him and Wolf, and Lopez gets more minutes with Isaiah Jackson out in the closest game of the night.
In tournaments, I'm moving off Giannis to Sabonis, and I'm stacking Garland and Fears in New Orleans at the Clippers, a game most of the field will skip. Traore at $4,900 is the cheap starter who frees salary for both.
More slates in the NBA DFS articles archive.
NBA DFS FAQ
What is a cash game core in NBA DFS?
A cash game core is the small group of players you put in almost every 50/50 and double-up lineup, because their minutes are safe and their salary is low for what they do. Tonight that starts with Dosunmu, who is playing big minutes with Edwards out. You build the rest of the lineup around the core.
Why does pace matter in NBA DFS?
More possessions mean more shots, rebounds and assists, and DraftKings and FanDuel pay for all of them. Miami at Sacramento projects as one of the fastest games tonight, which is a big part of why the total sits at 237.5. A player in a fast game has a higher ceiling at the same minutes.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN NBA tools: today's NBA DFS projections, the free NBA lineup optimizer, the NBA injury report for DFS, the NBA rotations and minutes tracker, and NBA pace stats.