Pittsburgh flew into Anaheim for the second half of a back-to-back, its third game in four nights, and the Ducks get that tired team at home. We build around the Anaheim top power play unit (ANA PP1) and put Dan Vladar in net for Philadelphia. The two goalies with the best win chances both play tired tonight, which is why Vladar gets the nod. Only eight teams play after 6 PM, so we are fine sharing the Anaheim build with a big part of the field.
Last Night
Pyotr Kochetkov won with 18 saves for 11.6 DK points. EDM PP1 missed: it scored 73.1 DK points and finished fifth of the 18 PP1 units, well behind Colorado at 103.1. Both value plays hit, William Carrier with 14.3 at $3,400 and T.J. Hughes with 11.0 at $3,400, and both blocks picks cleared, Moritz Seider with four and MacKenzie Weegar with three. Since 10/29, our cash goalie is 8-2, the primary stack has hit 6 of 10, the value plays 6 of 20, the blocks picks 4 of 10 and the props 5-4.
Slate Overview
Lock is 6:00 PM ET, when Tampa Bay and Winnipeg drop the puck. Switch tabs for the goalies, the injuries and the line matchup edges.
| Game | Total | Favorite | Implied goals | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL @ WPG | 6.5 | TBL -150 | TBL 3.40, WPG 2.95 | TBL back-to-back with travel |
| PHI @ CGY | 5.5 | PHI -118 | PHI 2.87, CGY 2.77 | lowest total on the slate |
| NJD @ TOR | 6.5 | NJD -154 | NJD 3.38, TOR 2.90 | both teams on a back-to-back |
| PIT @ ANA | 6.5 | ANA -120 | PIT 3.42, ANA 3.55 | PIT back-to-back with travel |
| Goalie | Status | Win chance | Opp. goals | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck (NJD) | Expected | 58.0% | 2.90 | $7,900 |
| Andrei Vasilevskiy (TBL) | Expected | 57.5% | 2.95 | $8,200 |
| Laurent Brossoit (ANA) | Expected | 52.2% | 3.42 | $8,000 |
| Dan Vladar (PHI) | Expected | 51.7% | 2.77 | $7,600 |
| Devin Cooley (CGY) | Confirmed | 48.3% | 2.87 | $7,800 |
| Arturs Silovs (PIT) | Expected | 47.8% | 3.55 | $7,400 |
| Stuart Skinner (WPG) | Expected | 42.5% | 3.40 | $7,200 |
| Anthony Stolarz (TOR) | Expected | 42.0% | 3.38 | $7,500 |
| Player (team, pos) | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Marchenko (TOR, RW) | Injured Reserve (lower body) | 8 | Matthews, Nylander, Tavares |
| Bryan Rust (PIT, RW) | Injured Reserve (lower body) | 8 | Rakell, Crosby, Novak |
| Marshall Rifai (TOR, D) | Injured Reserve (lower body) | 8 | McCabe, Rielly, Raddysh |
| Elvis Merzlikins (TOR, G) | Injured Reserve (shoulder) | 6 | Stolarz |
| Line | Players | Edge | Main opponent | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL F2 | Hagel, Cirelli, Goncalves | +12.2 | WPG F1 (38% of 5v5 time) | Full line, 91 min |
| TBL F1 | Kucherov, Point, Guentzel | +6.3 | WPG F1 (43% of 5v5 time) | Full line, 301 min |
| PIT F1 | Crosby, Malkin, Rakell | +3.9 | ANA F1 (43% of 5v5 time) | Crosby & Rakell, 777 min |
Tampa Bay has the best special teams spot of the night: its power play ranks 11th in expected goals, and Winnipeg's kill ranks 30th. A line edge is the share of 5v5 expected goals a line should win against the lines it will see most, minus 50; we use it as a tiebreaker. You can check every number on the NHL team matchups, NHL injuries and NHL line matchups pages.
Starting Goalies
Dan Vladar (PHI, $7,600), cash and GPP
Vladar is expected to start in Calgary, not yet confirmed. The Flames rank last in 5v5 goals and 23rd in 5v5 expected goals, so he faces a team that struggles to score at even strength. He should make 23 or 24 saves, and his shutout chance sits near 7%. If Philadelphia turns to its backup, switch to Laurent Brossoit, who plays behind our main stack. Hellebuyck and Vasilevskiy have better win chances, but both teams play the second night of a back-to-back after travel, and we won't trust either one until he is confirmed. Watch our NHL starting goalies page before lock.
Stacks to Target
ANA PP1: Cutter Gauthier, Leo Carlsson, Beckett Sennecke, Mikael Granlund, Jackson LaCombe ($31,200 for the unit)
Arturs Silovs is expected in net for Pittsburgh, not yet confirmed. The Anaheim forwards carry a SMASH tag, which means they rate well above the Penguins defense they face. The Gauthier line with Granlund and Sennecke wins 51% of the 5v5 shot attempts when it is on the ice. Special teams are close to even (the Ducks power play ranks 15th, the Pittsburgh kill 11th), so this pick rests on rest and talent: Anaheim had a day off, and the Penguins did not. The unit can reach about 100 DK points on a big night, the most of any stack. It is the chalk, our cash core and our GPP base.
TOR PP1: Auston Matthews, William Nylander, John Tavares, Jack Roslovic, Darren Raddysh ($33,200 for the unit)
Connor Hellebuyck is expected for New Jersey, and the Devils play the second night of a back-to-back after travel, so a backup could start. The Toronto power play ranks 9th in expected goals against the 10th-ranked New Jersey kill. At 5v5 the Matthews line wins 49.6% of the shot attempts, about even, and the Leafs also played last night at home. With Kirill Marchenko out, more of the PP1 work goes to Matthews, Nylander and Tavares. The unit can reach about 88 DK points on a big night with far fewer people on it than Anaheim. Use it as the second stack in GPP.
WPG PP1: Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele, Gabriel Vilardi, Cole Perfetti, Neal Pionk ($30,300 for the unit, third stack)
This one is a bet on a tired opponent. The Winnipeg forwards carry a TOUGH tag against Tampa Bay, the Jets power play ranks 19th and the Lightning kill ranks 5th. Vasilevskiy is expected but not confirmed on the back half of a back-to-back, and Winnipeg comes in on two days of rest. The Connor line wins 50.5% of the 5v5 shot attempts, and these five score together more than any other unit tonight. It can reach about 87 DK points on a big night. Keep it to GPP. Check every unit on our NHL lines page.
Chalk and Pivots
Chalk stack: ANA PP1. Pivot: PIT PP1 ($27,300). We play the Anaheim chalk in our main build. The Pittsburgh unit with Rickard Rakell, Sidney Crosby and Erik Karlsson is the second build, a game stack in the same matchup, and the Penguins forwards carry a SMASH tag of their own.
Chalk goalie: Andrei Vasilevskiy. Pivot: Dan Vladar ($7,600). Vasilevskiy is the most popular goalie, but he plays tired and still waits on confirmation. Vladar is rested and costs $600 less.
Fades
NJD PP1: Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt, Dougie Hamilton, Connor Brown ($27,600). It is the second most popular stack on the slate, and the Devils play the second night of a back-to-back after travel, their third game in four nights. Hughes is the most popular skater in single entry, and we would rather put that salary into the rested Ducks.
Skaters
Centers
Leo Carlsson ($6,500): cash. Carlsson centers the Anaheim top line, runs PP1 and should play about 21 minutes with two or three shots. The field is on him, and on this slate that is fine.
Brayden Point ($6,300): GPP. Point centers the Tampa Bay top line and plays PP1 for about 19 minutes. His line holds a +6.3 edge, and his power play gets the 30th-ranked kill. Fewer people will play him than the Ducks centers, though he is playing tired.
Wingers
Cutter Gauthier ($7,700): cash. He plays on the Anaheim second line and PP1, and he should get four or five shots, the most on the slate. He has a 42.5% chance at five or more shots.
Nikita Kucherov ($8,500): GPP. Kucherov plays about 20 minutes on the Tampa top line and PP1 and should pick up about one assist. He has the highest big-night number of any winger outside Anaheim, and the Jets kill gives him room.
Defensemen
Jackson LaCombe ($5,600): cash. LaCombe plays the Anaheim top pair and PP1 for about 27 minutes, more than any skater on the slate. His 23.5% chance at three or more blocks gives him a floor.
Erik Karlsson ($5,800): GPP. Karlsson runs the Pittsburgh top pair and PP1 for about 23 minutes with two shots on average. He works as a bring-back to the Ducks stack.
Value Plays
Gage Goncalves (TBL W, $2,900): he plays on the Tampa second line with Brandon Hagel and Anthony Cirelli, and that line has the biggest edge on the board. He also plays PP2.
Erik Cernak (TBL D, $2,700): he plays the Tampa top pair with Ryan McDonagh for about 24 minutes, the pair has a +5.7 edge, and he has a 26.3% chance at three or more blocks.
Before Lock
- Vladar is still only expected. If Philadelphia goes to its backup, switch to Brossoit.
- Tampa Bay, New Jersey and Pittsburgh play the second night of a back-to-back after travel and their third game in four nights. Toronto played last night at home, and Anaheim plays its third game in four nights.
- If Hellebuyck or Vasilevskiy gets confirmed, he becomes a fair GPP pivot. If either team turns to its backup, the Toronto and Winnipeg stacks get better.
- Morgan Rielly is a game-time call for Toronto. If he sits, Jake McCabe and Raddysh pick up his minutes.
- Marchenko's injury moves Matthews, Nylander and Tavares up, and Bryan Rust's injury does the same for Rakell, Crosby and Tommy Novak.
Final Thoughts
Our cash core is Vladar, Gauthier, Carlsson, Granlund and LaCombe. For GPP, build from ANA PP1, add TOR PP1 or WPG PP1, use Point, Kucherov or Karlsson as one-offs, and skip NJD PP1. All the numbers are on our NHL projections page.
NHL DFS FAQ
What is a PP1 stack in NHL DFS?
A PP1 stack uses the five players on a team's first power play unit. They are on the ice together for most power play goals, so one goal can give three or four of them points at once. Tonight ANA PP1 has the highest ceiling of any stack on the slate.
How does a back-to-back change NHL DFS picks?
Teams on the second night often start the backup goalie, and their skaters can tire late in games. We downgrade those spots but do not drop them, since a backup in net helps the other team's stacks. Tonight both Hellebuyck and Vasilevskiy face that question, which is why our Toronto and Winnipeg stacks carry extra upside.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the BankrollSZN NHL tools: today's NHL DFS projections, the NHL lineup optimizer, NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks, today's NHL starting goalies, and NHL odds and player props.