Keyonte George has been ruled out with an ankle injury, and that hands Utah's ball to two young guards in the fastest game on Tuesday's NBA DFS slate. Miami at Utah has the top total on DraftKings and FanDuel, so Darryn Peterson and Isaiah Collier will sit in most cash lineups next to Franz Wagner and Brayden Burries. My tournament money goes to the Clippers at Phoenix, a close game with a strong total that the field is mostly skipping.
Updated 5:05 PM CT: Lauri Markkanen is out for Utah, so Brice Sensabaugh ($3,500) moves into a bigger role at forward and Peterson and Collier get even more of the ball. Sensabaugh will be chalk at $3,500, and I'm fine with him next to the cash core. Domantas Sabonis is active for Sacramento, and Josh Hart is doubtful for the Knicks, so treat him as out.
At a Glance
- Cash core: Darryn Peterson, Isaiah Collier, Franz Wagner, Brayden Burries
- Best GPP pivot: Darius Garland ($8,300), a big total in a close game and almost nobody on him
- Best cheap play: Klay Thompson ($4,900), an expected starter in the fastest game on the slate
- Check before lock: Tyler Herro (questionable, contusion), Ryan Rollins and Brayden Burries get more guard minutes if he sits
- Late swap: Orlando at Sacramento, tips 10:00 PM ET
Slate Overview
Switch tabs for tonight's injuries and how last night's picks did.
| Game | Tip (ET) | Spread | Moneyline | Total | Away Total | Home Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL at NY | 7:30 PM | NY -15.5 | MIL +670 / NY -1040 | 221.5 | MIL 103.0 | NY 118.5 |
| BOS at PHI | 8:00 PM | BOS -1.5 | BOS -117 / PHI -101 | 217.5 | BOS 109.5 | PHI 108.0 |
| LAC at PHX | 9:00 PM | PHX -3.5 | LAC +140 / PHX -167 | 224.5 | LAC 110.5 | PHX 114.0 |
| MIA at UTAH | 9:00 PM | MIA -7.5 | MIA -344 / UTAH +276 | 228.5 | MIA 118.0 | UTAH 110.5 |
| ORL at SAC | 10:00 PM | ORL -6.5 | ORL -237 / SAC +196 | 223.5 | ORL 115.0 | SAC 108.5 |
| Impact | Player | Status | Role | Who benefits (minutes with to without) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Keyonte George (UTAH G) | Out, ankle | 32.1 MIN, 21.1/4.3/6.4 | Darryn Peterson ($6,800) 30.7 to 35.0; Ace Bailey ($6,700) 30.6 to 31.5 |
| 8 | Lauri Markkanen (UTAH F) | Out, wrist | 30.9 MIN, 18.0/6.8/2.0 | Brice Sensabaugh ($3,500) 14.2 to 17.9; Kyle Filipowski ($4,500) 7.9 to 8.1 |
| 7 | Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIA F) | Probable, wrist | 32.9 MIN, 27.5/12.8/5.3 | Andrew Wiggins ($5,100) and Bobby Portis ($5,000) if he sits |
| 7 | Tyler Herro (MIL G) | Questionable, contusion | 30.7 MIN, 21.4/4.6/4.3 | Ryan Rollins ($5,500) and Brayden Burries ($4,800) if he sits |
| 7 | Josh Hart (NY G) | Out (doubtful), illness | 31.7 MIN, 8.6/7.3/3.9 | Mikal Bridges ($5,000) 26.0 to 26.3; Landry Shamet ($4,400) expected to start |
| - | Paolo Banchero (ORL F) | Out | 33.5 MIN | See Orlando at Sacramento |
| - | Brandon Ingram (LAC F) | Out | - | See LA Clippers at Phoenix |
| - | Domantas Sabonis (SAC F) | Active (official) | 35.6 MIN, 15.3/14.6/6.0 | No change, he plays |
| Call | Player | Salary | Minutes | DK Pts | Pts per $1K | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash core | Naz Reid | $6,900 | 32 | 53.25 | 7.7x | Hit |
| Cash core | Alperen Sengun | $9,000 | 35 | 52.00 | 5.8x | Solid |
| Cash core | Grayson Allen | $5,200 | 34 | 46.50 | 8.9x | Hit |
| Cash core | RJ Barrett | $7,600 | 36 | 27.75 | 3.7x | Miss |
| GPP pivot | Luka Doncic | $12,000 | 39 | 71.00 | 5.9x | Solid |
| GPP pivot | Jalen Johnson | $9,700 | 38 | 31.75 | 3.3x | Miss |
| GPP pivot | Donovan Mitchell | $8,400 | 23 | 22.00 | 2.6x | Miss |
| Value play | Christian Anderson | $3,300 | 16 | 12.25 | 3.7x | Miss |
| Avoid | Ryan Kalkbrenner | $4,400 | 35 | 38.25 | 8.7x | Wrong call |
| Avoid | Ja'Kobe Walter | $5,300 | 34 | 20.00 | 3.8x | Right call |
| Avoid | Jake LaRavia | $4,800 | 32 | 12.75 | 2.7x | Right call |
Green is the best scoring spot on the slate, yellow is the middle and red is the weakest. A green spread means a close game.
Miami at Utah is the only game with a green total and a fast pace, and the Knicks giving 15.5 points to Milwaukee is the blowout to respect.
Grayson Allen paid off at 8.9x in 34 minutes and Naz Reid wasn't far behind, so three of the four cash plays cleared the bar. Donovan Mitchell was the worst call of the night at 2.6x because he only played 23 minutes, and I was wrong on Ryan Kalkbrenner, who played 35 minutes and put up 38.25 points.
Season record: Cash core: 41 of 71 at or above the slate average, 5.4x per $1K against a 5.0x slate average. GPP pivots: 24 of 45 at or above the slate average and 9 at 6x or better, 5.0x per $1K against a 5.0x slate average. Avoids: 15 of 33 right, 5.3x per $1K against a 5.0x slate average.
The slate average counts every player who played 20+ minutes. A GPP pivot is a Hit at 6x per $1K or better and Solid at or above the slate average. Full results are on the NBA DFS results page.
Full injury report, updated all day: NBA injury report for DFS
Games to Target
Miami at Utah: 228.5 total, MIA -7.5
Cash game. Miami ranks 2nd in pace and Utah 4th, so this should be the most possessions on the slate, and George's absence frees up nearly 30% of Utah's possessions. Out: George, Jackson, Markkanen. Questionable: None.
- Darryn Peterson ($6,800): He scored 26 with six rebounds and four threes in 35 minutes against Minnesota on Sunday, and that was with George on the floor. Now he should play about 35 minutes and run the offense. Foul trouble is the one thing that can cut his night short. I love him here.
- Isaiah Collier ($4,400): He averaged 13 minutes over Utah's last five games, so the expected move into the starting lineup is the whole case. The NBA rotations and minutes tracker shows how thin Utah's guard group is right now, and he should get about 21 minutes at a price that frees up everything else. The floor is shaky, but the role is real. I like him a good bit in cash.
- Klay Thompson ($4,900): He hit seven threes for 23 points in 32 minutes against Sacramento on Sunday and eight threes for 30 against the Clippers last week. A shooter this cheap in a pace-up game gives you ceiling at the bottom of the roster. He's solid.
- Bam Adebayo ($8,200): He put up 35 and 10 in 41 minutes against the Clippers on November 4 and followed it with 18 and 8 on Sunday. The field is paying for Giannis or skipping this side, so Bam is the quieter way into the best total on the board. I like him in tournaments.
- Jaxson Hayes ($5,500): He scored 18 in 29 minutes on Sunday, but he has to guard Giannis and Bam, and he carries real foul trouble risk. A center who sits with four fouls doesn't pay off this price. I'd pass.
Matchups to target: Peterson, Collier, Thompson, Adebayo
Matchups to avoid: Hayes
Orlando at Sacramento: 223.5 total, ORL -6.5
Cash game. Orlando ranks 20th in pace and Sacramento 12th, so the pace is only average, but Orlando's 115 implied points are the third-best team total on the slate. Out: Banchero, Suggs. Questionable: da Silva.
- Franz Wagner ($9,000): He has played 38 or more minutes in each of his last three games, with a 30, 6 and 11 line against Golden State on Saturday. With Banchero and Suggs out, the offense runs through him. He carries real foul trouble risk, which is the only worry. He's the safest expensive play on the slate.
- Anthony Black ($6,900): He filled the box against Golden State with 18 points, eight rebounds, six assists, four steals and three blocks in 38 minutes. He's also popular, but the price still works for a guard who should play over 30 minutes. I like this spot a good bit.
- Desmond Bane ($7,200): He scored 15 with six rebounds in 32 minutes against Phoenix last week, and he should get about 35 minutes tonight. Foul trouble is the risk here too. He's solid, but I like Black more at a similar price.
- Darius Acuff Jr. ($8,600): He scored 32 with 10 assists in 39 minutes against Miami on Sunday, and he has played 33 to 42 minutes in each of his last five games. Cash players are mostly going elsewhere, which makes him a strong tournament play. I like him a lot in GPPs.
- Jase Richardson ($4,700): He starts, but he scored two points in 30 minutes on Saturday and hasn't topped 10 points in his last five games. The minutes are fine, but there isn't much else here. I'd pass.
Matchups to target: Wagner, Black, Acuff
Matchups to avoid: None
LA Clippers at Phoenix: 224.5 total, PHX -3.5
GPP game. The Clippers rank 24th in pace and Phoenix 25th, so this one projects slow, but the total is green, the spread is tight and the field is mostly building around other games. Out: Ingram. Questionable: None.
- Darius Garland ($8,300): He scored 24 with 10 assists in 32 minutes against New Orleans on Sunday and had 26 in 39 minutes against Miami before that. He's one of the least popular players over $8,000 tonight. I love him as a pivot.
- Devin Booker ($8,100): He scored 32 in only 29 minutes against San Antonio last night, and he has scored at least 24 in each of his last five games. Phoenix is on the second night of a back-to-back, so I'd keep exposure moderate. He's solid.
- Brook Lopez ($5,000): He scored 20 in each of his last two starts, with 8 rebounds in 35 minutes against Miami. He should play about 25 minutes. That is enough at this price. I like him here.
- Miles Bridges ($7,100): He went for 18, 13 and 5 against Orlando last week, but only scored 7 in 26 minutes last night. A slow game by NBA pace stats and the back-to-back both cap his upside. He's fine in tournaments.
- Dillon Brooks ($6,100): He scored 7 in 26 minutes last night, and he carries real foul trouble risk on the back-to-back. There are better ways to spend $6,000. I do not like him in this spot at all.
Matchups to target: Garland, Lopez, Booker
Matchups to avoid: Brooks
Game to fade: Boston at Philadelphia. It has the lowest total on the slate at 217.5, and Boston ranks 30th in pace. Tatum and Jaylen Brown are fine tournament plays, but a slow game with the lowest total gives their prices little help.
Player Props
These are tonight's top player props from our Monte Carlo prop simulation, priced against the DraftKings line. Switch tabs to see how last night's picks did.
| Player | Prop | Odds | Our Number | Model | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden Burries (MIL vs NY) | Under 1.5 Threes | -136 | 1.0 | 60.3% | 53.9% | +6.4% |
| Rui Hachimura (LAC vs PHX) | Under 5.5 Rebounds | -153 | 4.3 | 62.7% | 56.6% | +6.0% |
| Andrew Wiggins (MIA vs UTAH) | Over 3.5 Rebounds | +130 | 3.9 | 44.8% | 40.7% | +4.0% |
| Deni Avdija (POR vs OKC) | Under 7.5 Rebounds | -131 | 6.4 | 58.1% | 53.1% | +4.9% |
| Donovan Clingan (POR vs OKC) | Under 11.5 Rebounds | -138 | 9.8 | 59.3% | 54.3% | +5.0% |
| Player | Prop | Odds | Actual | Result | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walker Kessler | Over 1.5 Assists | +127 | 4 | Win | +10.7 |
| Jeremiah Fears | Over 3.5 Assists | +113 | 8 | Win | +25.8 |
| Dillon Brooks | Over 1.5 Threes | +114 | 1 | Loss | +11.3 |
| Victor Wembanyama | Under 11.5 Rebounds | -115 | 11 | Win | -1.5 |
| Royce O'Neale | Under 2.5 Threes | -140 | 2 | Win | +1.3 |
Last night went 4 and 1, and the only loss was Dillon Brooks hitting one three when he needed two.
- Brayden Burries Under 1.5 Threes: He has hit one three or fewer in each of his last five games, and he's in my cash core for his minutes and rebounds, not his shooting, so I like the under.
- Rui Hachimura Under 5.5 Rebounds: This game projects slow and he had only three rebounds in 26 minutes on Sunday, so the under is the right side.
- Andrew Wiggins Over 3.5 Rebounds: Miami at Utah should have the most possessions on the slate, and more possessions mean more misses to grab, which is enough for a plus-money over.
- Deni Avdija Under 7.5 Rebounds: The sim has him well under the line in the late Portland game, and I trust the number here.
- Donovan Clingan Under 11.5 Rebounds: He should play only about 25 minutes and carries some foul risk, which makes 12 rebounds a high bar.
Season record on these props: 49-46, +3.1 units at one unit each. Closing line value: +2.4 points of win probability on average, and the closing price moved our way on 58 of 90 picks.
Our Number is the simulation's average for that stat. Model and Market are the chance the bet wins, with the market's vig removed. CLV is how many points of win probability the DraftKings closing line moved toward our side after we posted the pick.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Top Plays by Position
| Pos | Rank | Player | Matchup | Salary | Min | Field | Play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | 1 | Darius Acuff Jr. | SAC vs ORL | $8,600 | 36 | Popular | Cash |
| PG | 2 | Jalen Brunson | NY vs MIL | $8,500 | 33 | Popular | Cash |
| PG | 3 | Devin Booker | PHX vs LAC | $8,100 | 34 | Popular | Cash |
| SG | 1 | Jaylen Brown | PHI vs BOS | $8,000 | 34 | Popular | GPP |
| SG | 2 | Desmond Bane | ORL at SAC | $7,200 | 35 | Popular | Cash |
| SG | 3 | Jalen Green | PHX vs LAC | $6,000 | 28 | Mid | GPP |
| SF | 1 | Jayson Tatum | BOS at PHI | $10,100 | 33 | Popular | GPP |
| SF | 2 | Franz Wagner | ORL at SAC | $9,000 | 37 | Chalk | Cash |
| SF | 3 | Paul George | BOS at PHI | $7,400 | 30 | Mid | GPP |
| PF | 1 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | MIA at UTAH | $11,400 | 32 | Popular | GPP |
| PF | 2 | Karl-Anthony Towns | NY vs MIL | $8,900 | 30 | Chalk | Cash |
| PF | 3 | LeBron James | PHI vs BOS | $7,900 | 31 | Mid | GPP |
| C | 1 | Domantas Sabonis | SAC vs ORL | $9,400 | 32 | Low | GPP |
| C | 2 | Bam Adebayo | MIA at UTAH | $8,200 | 32 | Mid | GPP |
| C | 3 | Joel Embiid | PHI vs BOS | $8,400 | 30 | Mid | GPP |
| Pos | Rank | Player | Matchup | Salary | Min | Field | Play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | 1 | Jalen Brunson | NY vs MIL | $8,200 | 33 | Chalk | Cash |
| PG | 2 | Darius Acuff | SAC vs ORL | $8,300 | 36 | Popular | GPP |
| PG | 3 | Devin Booker | PHX vs LAC | $7,700 | 34 | Popular | Cash |
| SG | 1 | Darryn Peterson | UTAH vs MIA | $6,000 | 36 | Chalk | Cash |
| SG | 2 | Desmond Bane | ORL at SAC | $5,900 | 35 | Chalk | Cash |
| SG | 3 | Ace Bailey | UTAH vs MIA | $5,100 | 36 | Chalk | Cash |
| SF | 1 | Jayson Tatum | BOS at PHI | $10,100 | 33 | Popular | GPP |
| SF | 2 | Franz Wagner | ORL at SAC | $8,900 | 37 | Chalk | Cash |
| SF | 3 | Jaylen Brown | PHI vs BOS | $8,000 | 34 | Mid | GPP |
| PF | 1 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | MIA at UTAH | $11,800 | 32 | Popular | GPP |
| PF | 2 | LeBron James | PHI vs BOS | $7,900 | 31 | Mid | GPP |
| PF | 3 | Miles Bridges | PHX vs LAC | $6,900 | 30 | Popular | GPP |
| C | 1 | Karl-Anthony Towns | NY vs MIL | $8,600 | 30 | Chalk | Cash |
| C | 2 | Bam Adebayo | MIA at UTAH | $8,200 | 33 | Popular | GPP |
| C | 3 | Domantas Sabonis | SAC vs ORL | $8,100 | 32 | Mid | GPP |
Min is projected minutes. Field is how popular the player should be: Chalk, Popular, Mid or Low.
FanDuel leans on Utah much harder, with Peterson at $6,000 and Ace Bailey both in its top three shooting guards. With Markkanen out, no Jazz player makes the DraftKings top three at any spot, and Jaylen Brown is the top shooting guard.
Every projection lives on today's NBA DFS projections, and you can build around these in the free NBA lineup optimizer.
Before Lock
- Tristan da Silva (calf): If he sits, Franz Wagner and Jamal Cain ($4,300) pick up the forward minutes in Orlando, and Wagner's minutes get safer.
- Tyler Herro (contusion): If he plays, Burries keeps his usual role. If he sits, Ryan Rollins ($5,500) and Burries split more of the guard minutes, which only helps the cash core.
- Late swap: Orlando at Sacramento tips last at 10:00 PM ET, so keep a Wagner or Acuff swap ready until the da Silva news is final. Sabonis is active, and he's a low-owned tournament center at $9,400.
Final Thoughts
The cash build starts with the George injury: Peterson and Collier are cheap ways into the best game on the slate, and Franz Wagner is the steadiest minutes bet at the top. Burries is the risk I'm taking, since he plays for a 15.5-point underdog and has swung between 22 and 38 minutes in his last three games, but most cash lineups will have him, and I'd rather take the minutes risk than get passed by the field if he hits.
In tournaments I want Garland as the pivot off the popular guards, with Bam Adebayo as a second way into Miami at Utah. Klay Thompson at $4,900 is the cheap play that can win a lineup on threes alone.
More slates in the NBA DFS articles archive.
NBA DFS FAQ
What is a GPP pivot in NBA DFS?
A GPP pivot is a player at a similar price to a popular play who the field is mostly ignoring. If both score the same, you gain ground on every lineup that took the chalk. Tonight Darius Garland at $8,300 is my pivot off the popular guards in that price range.
What is late swap in NBA DFS?
Late swap lets you change players in your lineup until their own game tips, even after the first games have started. It matters most when a questionable player in a late game finally gets a ruling. Tonight that is Tristan da Silva in the 10:00 PM ET Orlando at Sacramento game.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN NBA tools: today's NBA DFS projections, the free NBA lineup optimizer, the NBA injury report for DFS, the NBA rotations and minutes tracker, and NBA pace stats.