Mike Matheson is out again for Montreal, and the Canadiens defense that is left has to deal with a Kirill Kaprizov line that wins 54.1% of the 5v5 shot attempts when it is on the ice. We build around the Minnesota top power play unit (MIN PP1) and put MacKenzie Blackwood in net, the biggest favorite in goal tonight. Colorado gives us the second stack, and the late Kings game gives us a third that far fewer people will play. Seven games leave room for all three, so we spread our builds out more than we would on a short card.
Last Night
Devon Levi won, stopping 28 of 29 shots for 22.1 DK points. EDM PP1 scored 47.9 DK points, second of the six PP1 units on the slate. Both value plays paid off: Michael Misa scored 11.8 DK points at $3,200 and Victor Eklund scored 12.8 at $3,300. Since 10/29, our cash goalie is 9-3, the primary stack has hit 8 of 12, the value plays 9 of 24, the blocks picks 4 of 10 and the props 5-4.
Slate Overview
Lock is 7:00 PM ET, when Washington, Minnesota, Colorado and New Jersey drop the puck. Switch tabs for the goalies, the injuries and the line matchup edges.
| Game | Total | Favorite | Implied goals | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH @ OTT | 6.5 | OTT -114 | OTT 3.25, WSH 3.19 | none |
| MIN @ MTL | 6.5 | MIN -126 | MIN 3.24, MTL 3.04 | MIN power play 6th, MTL kill 22nd |
| COL @ TOR | 6.5 | COL -166 | COL 3.58, TOR 2.98 | TOR third game in four nights |
| NJD @ WPG | 6.5 | NJD -152 | NJD 3.41, WPG 2.94 | NJD third game in four nights |
| FLA @ CBJ | 5.5 | FLA -122 | FLA 2.93, CBJ 2.78 | FLA third game in four nights |
| DET @ STL | 5.5 | STL -144 | STL 3.04, DET 2.67 | DET without Larkin |
| NSH @ LAK | 6.5 | LAK -137 | LAK 3.27, NSH 2.96 | starts 10:00 PM ET |
| Goalie | Status | Win chance | Opp. goals | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MacKenzie Blackwood (COL) | Expected | 59.8% | 2.98 | $8,400 |
| Jake Allen (NJD) | Confirmed | 57.7% | 2.94 | $8,300 |
| Joel Hofer (STL) | Expected | 56.5% | 2.67 | $8,200 |
| Darcy Kuemper (LAK) | Expected | 55.3% | 2.96 | $8,100 |
| Jesper Wallstedt (MIN) | Expected | 53.3% | 3.04 | $7,900 |
| Jacob Markstrom (FLA) | Expected | 52.6% | 2.78 | $7,800 |
| Samuel Ersson (OTT) | Expected | 51.0% | 3.19 | $8,000 |
| Logan Thompson (WSH) | Expected | 49.0% | 3.25 | $7,400 |
| Cam Talbot (CBJ) | Expected | 47.4% | 2.93 | $7,600 |
| Jacob Fowler (MTL) | Expected | 46.7% | 3.24 | $7,500 |
| Juuse Saros (NSH) | Expected | 44.7% | 3.27 | $7,300 |
| John Gibson (DET) | Expected | 43.5% | 3.04 | $7,200 |
| Nico Daws (WPG) | Confirmed | 42.3% | 3.41 | $7,100 |
| Sergei Bobrovsky (TOR) | Confirmed | 40.2% | 3.58 | $7,000 |
| Player (team, pos) | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Larkin (DET, C) | Suspended | 9 | DeBrincat, Arvidsson, Raymond |
| Kirill Marchenko (TOR, RW) | Injured Reserve (lower body) | 8 | Matthews, Nylander, Tavares |
| Marshall Rifai (TOR, D) | Injured Reserve (lower body) | 8 | McCabe, Tanev, Raddysh |
| Mats Zuccarello (LAK, RW) | Injured Reserve (upper body) | 7 | Panarin, Kempe, Laferriere |
| Anthony Mantha (NJD, RW) | Out (neck) | 7 | J. Hughes, Hischier, Bratt |
| Mike Matheson (MTL, D) | Out (lower body) | 7 | Guhle, Carrier, Hutson |
| Brad Marchand (FLA, LW) | Injured Reserve (knee) | 6 | B. Tkachuk, Reinhart, M. Tkachuk |
| Morgan Rielly (TOR, D) | Out (lower body) | 6 | McCabe, Tanev, Raddysh |
| Line | Players | Edge | Main opponent | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK F1 | Panarin, Kempe, Laferriere | +8.8 | NSH F1 (42% of 5v5 time) | Full line, 123 min |
| COL F1 | Lehkonen, MacKinnon, Necas | +8.0 | TOR F1 (45% of 5v5 time) | Full line, 780 min |
| MIN F1 | Kaprizov, Boldy, Eriksson Ek | +7.7 | MTL F1 (45% of 5v5 time) | Full line, 383 min |
| Player | Pair | PP | Blocks | 3+ chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandre Carrier (MTL, $2,900) | D2 | none | 2.2 | 39% |
| Kaiden Guhle (MTL, $3,300) | D2 | none | 1.9 | 30% |
New Jersey has the best special teams spot of the night: its power play ranks 8th in expected goals, and the Winnipeg kill ranks 29th. Minnesota is next, with the 6th-ranked power play against a Montreal kill that sits 22nd. A line edge is the share of 5v5 expected goals a line should win against the lines it will see most, minus 50; we use it as a tiebreaker. You can check every number on the NHL team matchups, NHL injuries and NHL line matchups pages.
Starting Goalies
MacKenzie Blackwood (COL, $8,400), cash and GPP
Blackwood is expected to start, not yet confirmed. Toronto ranks 26th in 5v5 expected goals and plays its third game in four nights, without Rielly, Rifai or Marchenko. He should make about 21 or 22 saves, so the win does most of the work, and his 7.8% shutout chance is the best among the favorites. If Colorado turns to its backup, switch to Jake Allen, who is confirmed for New Jersey. Watch our NHL starting goalies page before lock.
Stacks to Target
Each header shows the three-player core we would build around and what that core costs. Switch tabs for the stack summary and our top plays at each spot.
| Stack | Core | Core salary | Big night (full unit) | Field | Contest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN PP1 | Kaprizov, Boldy, Q. Hughes | $22,300 | about 103 DK points | Popular | Cash and GPP |
| COL PP1 | MacKinnon, Necas, Makar | $22,700 | about 96 DK points | Chalk | Small field GPP |
| LAK PP1 | Panarin, Kempe, Laferriere | $20,200 | about 89 DK points | Less popular | Large field GPP |
| Player | Pos | Salary | Role | Use |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Eriksson Ek (MIN) | C | $6,100 | F1, PP1 | Cash |
| Nico Hischier (NJD) | C | $5,600 | F1, PP1 | GPP |
| Kirill Kaprizov (MIN) | W | $8,100 | F1, PP1 | Cash |
| Alex DeBrincat (DET) | W | $7,100 | F1, PP1 | GPP |
| Quinn Hughes (MIN) | D | $6,600 | D1, PP1 | Cash |
| Zach Werenski (CBJ) | D | $7,900 | D1, PP1 | GPP |
| Jonas Brodin (MIN) | D | $3,500 | D1 | Value |
| Brett Kulak (COL) | D | $2,600 | D1 | Value |
| MacKenzie Blackwood (COL) | G | $8,400 | Expected | Cash and GPP |
MIN PP1: Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, Quinn Hughes ($22,300 for the core)
Jacob Fowler is expected in the Montreal net, not yet confirmed. At 5v5 the Kaprizov line wins 54.1% of the shot attempts when it is on the ice, and the Minnesota forwards carry a SMASH tag, which means they rate well above the Montreal defense they face. On the power play the Wild rank 6th in expected goals against a kill that ranks 22nd, and both teams had two days off. Joel Eriksson Ek and Maxim Shabanov fill out the unit, and the full five costs $31,800, which fits with any goalie on the slate. This is our cash core and our main GPP build.
COL PP1: Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas, Cale Makar ($22,700 for the core)
Sergei Bobrovsky is confirmed for Toronto. The MacKinnon line wins 55.0% of the 5v5 shot attempts, and both the Colorado forwards and the Colorado defense carry SMASH tags against a Toronto team that ranks 29th in 5v5 shot share. Its power play ranks 18th against a kill that ranks 19th, so this stack has to win at even strength. Nazem Kadri and T.J. Hughes complete the unit, and the full five ($31,300) fits under the cap with room left. It is the most popular stack on the slate, so we use it in single entry and 3-max contests.
LAK PP1: Artemi Panarin, Adrian Kempe, Alex Laferriere ($20,200 for the core, third stack)
Juuse Saros is expected for Nashville, not yet confirmed. The Panarin line wins 54.3% of the 5v5 shot attempts and has the biggest line edge of our three stacks. With Mats Zuccarello and Kevin Fiala on injured reserve, the top six work runs through these three. The Kings power play ranks 15th against an 11th-ranked kill, so the case is 5v5. Quinton Byfield and Erik Gustafsson round out the unit ($28,400 in full), and Gustafsson is a game-time call. Keep it for large field GPPs. The 10:00 PM ET start gives you a late swap option too. Check every unit on our NHL lines page.
How to Build It
Kaprizov, Boldy and Hughes with Blackwood cost $30,700, which leaves $19,300, or about $3,860 for each of the other five spots. You can fit a mid-priced forward or two and one of the value plays below. In large fields, take Kaprizov and Boldy alone ($15,700) and put the savings into a second stack.
For a 4-3-1 build, add Jonas Brodin to the Minnesota core ($25,800 for four) and put Blackwood in net. That leaves $15,800 for four skaters, about $3,950 each, so a three-man line near $11,000 fits, such as the Kings second line of Trevor Moore, Corey Perry and Quinton Byfield ($11,400), with $4,400 left for the one-off. For single entry and 3-max, a 3-3-2 build works: the Minnesota core, the Colorado second line of Brock Nelson, Jaden Schwartz and T.J. Hughes ($11,500) and Blackwood come to $42,200, which leaves $7,800, about $3,900 each, for two one-offs. DraftKings needs skaters from at least three teams, so one of those spots goes to a third team, and not to Toronto.
Chalk and Pivots
Chalk stack: COL PP1. Pivot: NJD PP1 ($28,800). The field loves Colorado, and we play it in small fields. The Devils unit costs a little less, has the best special teams spot on the slate and far fewer people on it.
Chalk goalie: Joel Hofer. Pivot: Jake Allen ($8,300). Hofer is the most popular goalie, but he is not confirmed. Allen is confirmed, wins more often by our numbers and faces neither of our first two stacks.
Fades
Cole Caufield ($6,700). He is one of the more popular skaters on the slate, but the Montreal power play ranks 27th in expected goals. At 5v5 his line sees the Kaprizov line most of the night, and we are not betting against Kaprizov on a night we stack him.
Skaters
Centers
Joel Eriksson Ek ($6,100): cash. He centers the Minnesota top line and plays on PP1 for about 19 minutes, so he scores with our main stack. He should get two or three shots, at a price well under Kaprizov and Boldy.
Nico Hischier ($5,600): GPP. The New Jersey top line runs through Hischier, with Timo Meier and Luke Evangelista on his wings, and it holds a +9.2 edge from 153 minutes together. He runs PP1 too, against the 29th-ranked Winnipeg kill. The Devils play their third game in four nights, but few people will play him.
Wingers
Kirill Kaprizov ($8,100): cash. Kaprizov plays about 21 minutes on the top line and PP1 and should get three or four shots. His ceiling trails only MacKinnon's on the slate. The field will be on him too, which is fine in cash.
Alex DeBrincat ($7,100): GPP. With Dylan Larkin suspended, DeBrincat plays on the Detroit top line and PP1 for about 21 minutes. He should get three or four shots and has a 26.8% chance at five or more. And he gets Hofer, the most popular goalie on the slate.
Defensemen
Quinn Hughes ($6,600): cash. Hughes should play about 29 minutes, more than anyone on the slate, and he runs the Minnesota PP1. He should get two or three shots, and his assists come from the same unit we stack.
Zach Werenski ($7,900): GPP. Werenski runs the Columbus top pair and PP1 for about 25 minutes and should get about three shots. The Columbus defense carries the biggest SMASH gap of any defense tonight against Florida. The Florida kill ranks 5th, so his ceiling comes at 5v5.
Value Plays
Jonas Brodin (MIN D, $3,500): he plays on the top pair with Hughes for about 23 minutes, so he is on the ice for much of the Kaprizov line's work. He has a 34% chance at three or more blocks on top of that.
Brett Kulak (COL D, $2,600): he plays on the Colorado top pair next to Makar for about 20 minutes, and Josh Manson's injury keeps him there. He is the cheapest way to add a Colorado piece.
Props to Watch
Easton Cowan over 1.5 shots on goal (-102): he plays on the Toronto top line and PP2 for about 18 minutes. We have him at 54.6% to get two or more shots, and the price needs 50.5%. Compare prices on our NHL odds comparison page. A prop is a lean, so keep the stake small.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Before Lock
- Blackwood, Hofer, Kuemper, Saros and Fowler are all expected, not yet confirmed. If Colorado goes to its backup, switch to Allen.
- John Gibson is day to day with a lower body injury, so Detroit may turn to Daniil Tarasov. Check the Detroit net before you add St. Louis skaters.
- Late swap: the games start at 7:00, 7:30, 8:00 and 10:00 PM ET. Put a Kings or Predators skater in your UTIL spot, so you can still change it if Kuemper or Saros does not start.
- Toronto, New Jersey and Florida all play their third game in four nights.
- Erik Gustafsson is a game-time call. He sits on LAK PP1, so check the unit before you lock the Kings stack. Ottawa's goalie reports also disagree, so confirm Samuel Ersson before you play anyone against Ottawa.
Final Thoughts
Our cash core is Blackwood, Kaprizov, Boldy and Hughes ($30,700), which leaves about $3,860 a spot for the other five. For GPP, build from the Minnesota core, add Colorado in small fields or the Kings in large fields, use Hischier, DeBrincat or Werenski as one-offs, and skip Caufield. All the numbers are on our NHL projections page.
NHL DFS FAQ
When are NHL starting goalies confirmed?
Most teams confirm their starter at the morning skate, and some wait until warmups. Tonight New Jersey, Winnipeg and Toronto are set, and the rest are expected. Check the goalie tab again before 7:00 PM ET and use late swap for the Kings game.
What is the difference between a cash and a GPP NHL lineup?
A cash lineup only has to beat about half the field, so it wants safe minutes, PP1 time and the goalie most likely to win. A GPP lineup has to beat almost everyone, so it stacks a line for a big night and takes some players the field skips. Tonight that means Blackwood and the Minnesota core in cash, and the Kings stack or Hischier in large fields.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the BankrollSZN NHL tools: today's NHL DFS projections, the NHL lineup optimizer, NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks, today's NHL starting goalies, and NHL odds and player props.