Jamal Murray has scored 35 or more in three of his last five games, and tonight he gets a fast Memphis team in a game with a 230.5 total. That is where I start on Wednesday's NBA DFS slate for DraftKings and FanDuel, with Jeremiah Fears next to him now that Trey Murphy III is out in New Orleans. Toronto is missing Scottie Barnes and Kawhi Leonard, so Jakob Poeltl is my cheap center in cash, and Cleveland at New York is the close game I want for tournaments.
Updated 4:58 PM CT: Immanuel Quickley is off the injury report and expected to start for Toronto, so Walter and Shead lose the extra guard minutes. Milwaukee ruled out Myles Turner for rest, and Kel'el Ware ($4,800) will be the chalk at center tonight. Brooklyn ruled out Nolan Traore, and Caleb Wilson is now questionable for Chicago with a sore hip.
At a Glance
- Cash core: Jamal Murray, Jeremiah Fears, Michael Porter Jr., Jakob Poeltl
- Best GPP pivot: Donovan Mitchell ($8,200), a close game and almost nobody on him
- Best cheap play: Cameron Johnson ($4,500), a starter in the best game on the slate
- Check before lock: Caleb Wilson (questionable, hip), Matas Buzelis and Jalen Smith get more frontcourt minutes if he sits
- Late swap: Denver at Memphis and three other games tip at 8:00 PM ET
Slate Overview
Switch tabs for tonight's injuries and how last night's picks did.
| Game | Tip (ET) | Spread | Moneyline | Total | Away Total | Home Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS at TOR | 7:00 PM | BOS -5.5 | BOS -222 / TOR +184 | 215.5 | BOS 110.5 | TOR 105.0 |
| CLE at NY | 7:00 PM | NY -3.5 | CLE +146 / NY -174 | 222.5 | CLE 109.5 | NY 113.0 |
| WSH at IND | 7:00 PM | IND -2.5 | WSH +121 / IND -143 | 228.5 | WSH 113.0 | IND 115.5 |
| BKN at NO | 8:00 PM | NO -3.5 | BKN +136 / NO -162 | 228.5 | BKN 112.5 | NO 116.0 |
| DEN at MEM | 8:00 PM | DEN -3.5 | DEN -167 / MEM +140 | 230.5 | DEN 117.0 | MEM 113.5 |
| LAL at MIL | 8:00 PM | LAL -14.5 | LAL -790 / MIL +554 | 229.5 | LAL 122.0 | MIL 107.5 |
| SA at CHI | 8:00 PM | SA -15.5 | SA -1200 / CHI +750 | 237.5 | SA 126.5 | CHI 111.0 |
| Impact | Player | Status | Role | Who benefits (minutes with to without) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Scottie Barnes (TOR F) | Out, groin | 33.4 MIN, 23.5/7.6/5.1 | RJ Barrett ($8,000) and Collin Murray-Boyles ($5,700) take his minutes |
| 7 | Tyler Herro (MIL G) | Questionable, knee | 30.7 MIN, 21.4/4.6/4.3 | Ryan Rollins ($5,700) and Brayden Burries ($5,300) if he sits |
| 7 | Immanuel Quickley (TOR G) | Active (official), hamstring | 31.8 MIN, 17.4/3.5/5.8 | Expected to start, no change |
| 7 | Caleb Wilson (CHI F) | Questionable, hip | 32.4 MIN, 19.3/6.3/2.1 | Matas Buzelis ($5,500) and Jalen Smith ($5,800) if he sits |
| 7 | Trey Murphy III (NO F) | Out (doubtful), knee | 32.8 MIN, 15.6/4.8/3.6 | Zion Williamson ($7,500) and Saddiq Bey ($6,400) take his minutes |
| 6 | Norman Powell (CHI G) | Questionable, shoulder | 28.9 MIN, 19.3/2.5/1.6 | Josh Giddey ($7,800) and Tre Jones ($4,400) if he sits |
| 6 | Devin Vassell (SA G) | Questionable, groin | 30.4 MIN, 11.9/3.8/3.1 | Dylan Harper ($6,700) and De'Aaron Fox ($6,200) if he sits |
| 6 | Myles Turner (MIL C) | Out, rest | 27.1 MIN, 6.7/5.5/2.7 | Kel'el Ware ($4,800) 17.3 to 26.5 |
| 6 | Nolan Traore (BKN G) | Out, calf | 22.1 MIN, 12.9/2.0/2.6 | Keon Ellis ($3,800) and Egor Demin ($5,000) take his minutes |
| 6 | Mikel Brown Jr. (BKN G) | Out, illness | 23.3 MIN, 12.9/2.1/3.9 | Chaney Johnson ($3,900) 17.9 to 22.3 |
| - | Kawhi Leonard (TOR SF) | Out | - | - |
| - | Paul George (BOS SF) | Out | 28.9 MIN | - |
| - | Yves Missi (NO C) | Out | - | See Brooklyn at New Orleans |
| Call | Player | Salary | Minutes | DK Pts | Pts per $1K | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash core | Franz Wagner | $9,000 | 38 | 55.25 | 6.1x | Hit |
| Cash core | Darryn Peterson | $6,800 | 31 | 37.50 | 5.5x | Hit |
| Cash core | Isaiah Collier | $4,400 | 24 | 33.75 | 7.7x | Hit |
| Cash core | Brayden Burries | $4,800 | 26 | 11.75 | 2.5x | Miss |
| GPP pivot | Bam Adebayo | $8,200 | 37 | 39.00 | 4.8x | Solid |
| GPP pivot | Darius Garland | $8,300 | 25 | 26.75 | 3.2x | Miss |
| Value play | Klay Thompson | $4,900 | 30 | 21.75 | 4.4x | Miss |
| Avoid | Dillon Brooks | $6,100 | 22 | 18.00 | 3.0x | Right call |
| Avoid | Jaxson Hayes | $5,500 | 17 | 13.50 | 2.5x | Right call |
Green is the best scoring spot on the slate, yellow is the middle and red is the weakest. A green spread means a close game.
San Antonio at Chicago has the biggest total and the fastest pace, but the Spurs are 15.5-point favorites and I expect the bench to play the fourth quarter. Denver at Memphis is the green total I trust.
Three of the four cash plays hit last night, led by Isaiah Collier at 7.7x in 24 minutes. Brayden Burries was the miss at 2.5x, and Darius Garland only played 25 minutes, which sank the pivot. Both avoids were right.
Season record: Cash core: 44 of 75 at or above the slate average, 5.4x per $1K against a 5.0x slate average. GPP pivots: 25 of 47 at or above the slate average and 9 at 6x or better, 5.0x per $1K against a 5.0x slate average. Avoids: 17 of 35 right, 5.1x per $1K against a 5.0x slate average.
The slate average counts every player who played 20+ minutes. A GPP pivot is a Hit at 6x per $1K or better and Solid at or above the slate average. Full results are on the NBA DFS results page.
Full injury report, updated all day: NBA injury report for DFS
Games to Target
Denver at Memphis: 230.5 total, DEN -3.5
Cash game. Memphis ranks 7th in pace and Denver 26th, and this is the only game with a green total and a spread under four points, so the starters should play the whole fourth quarter. Out: Pippen, Post, Strawther. Questionable: Stewart.
- Jamal Murray ($8,300): He scored 38 in 39 minutes against Houston on Monday, after 35 against Portland and 39 against Phoenix. The NBA rotations and minutes tracker has him at 36.5 minutes a night over Denver's last five games. I love him here.
- Nikola Jokic ($11,500): He put up 25, 16 and 9 in 39 minutes on Monday and has at least seven assists in each of his last five. Foul trouble is the one real risk. He's a fine tournament play, but in cash I'd rather spend down to Murray.
- Cameron Johnson ($4,500): He starts and has played between 29 and 34 minutes in each of his last five, with 18 points against Indiana on Saturday. He'll be popular, and at this price he should be. I like him a good bit.
- Ty Jerome ($8,200): He scored 27 against Toronto on Monday and 40 in 37 minutes against New Orleans on November 2. Few players are paying up for him in the best game on the slate. I like him in tournaments.
- Cameron Boozer ($8,100): He filled the box with 22, 7 and 8 in 33 minutes on Monday. He's a strong GPP play, but Jerome is the Memphis player I want more.
Matchups to target: Murray, C. Johnson, Jerome
Matchups to avoid: None
Brooklyn at New Orleans: 228.5 total, NO -3.5
Cash game. New Orleans ranks 5th in pace and Brooklyn 23rd, and with Trey Murphy III out the Pelicans lose almost 33 minutes on the wing. Out: Murphy, Missi, Watford, Mathurin, Brown, Traore.
- Jeremiah Fears ($6,600): He scored 25 with five assists against the Clippers on Sunday and 24 in 36 minutes against Minnesota before that. He averaged 31.7 minutes over the last five games, and Murphy's shots have to go somewhere. Man, that price. I love him in cash.
- Michael Porter Jr. ($7,500): He has hit at least three threes in each of his last five games, with 25 and 9 against Atlanta and 26 and 10 against Charlotte. He carries real foul trouble risk, but he's played 36 or more minutes in four of those five. I like this spot a good bit.
- Zion Williamson ($7,500): He scored 25 in 31 minutes on Sunday and 25 with 11 rebounds against Memphis on November 2. He should play about 34 minutes with Murphy out. He's solid.
- Day'Ron Sharpe ($5,300): He had 12 points, 10 rebounds and 13 assists against Atlanta on Saturday, and he's an expected starter at one of the best prices on the slate for a center. Foul trouble is the risk, since New Orleans gets to the line more than most teams. At $5,300 I'll take that chance. I like him a good bit.
Matchups to target: Fears, Porter, Williamson, Sharpe
Matchups to avoid: None
Cleveland at New York: 222.5 total, NY -3.5
GPP game. New York ranks 28th in pace and is on the second night of a back-to-back, so this game projects slow, but the spread is tight and the field has the second-lowest exposure to it on the slate. Out: Merrill, Diop, Udeh, Tomlin. Questionable: Tyson.
- Donovan Mitchell ($8,200): He scored 37 with five threes in 37 minutes against these Knicks on Saturday, and 27 against Oklahoma City before that. He played 23 minutes on Monday, and the field has mostly moved off him. I love him as a pivot.
- Evan Mobley ($7,700): He scored 22 against Philadelphia and had 16 and 10 against Oklahoma City, and he's played 32 or 33 minutes in four of his last five. He's barely owned at this price. I like him in tournaments.
- Jalen Brunson ($8,700): He had 31, 6 and 9 against Cleveland on Saturday and 23 in 28 minutes last night. Josh Hart is back on the official active list, so New York is close to full strength. The back-to-back keeps me at a moderate share. He's solid.
- James Harden ($7,100): He scored 19 with nine rebounds against Oklahoma City but only seven against New York on Saturday. In a slow game by NBA pace stats, I'd rather pay up for Mitchell. He's fine in tournaments.
- Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,000): He has double-digit rebounds in each of his last five, including 21 and 16 last night. But he carries real foul trouble risk on the back-to-back at the most expensive price in this game. I do not like him in this spot at all.
Matchups to target: Mitchell, Mobley, Brunson
Matchups to avoid: Towns
Game to fade: Boston at Toronto. It has the lowest total on the slate at 215.5, Boston ranks 30th in pace and is on a back-to-back. I'm taking Poeltl from it because $5,200 is cheap for a starting center.
Player Props
These are tonight's top player props from our Monte Carlo prop simulation, priced against the DraftKings line. Switch tabs to see how last night's picks did.
| Player | Prop | Odds | Our Number | Model | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Nembhard (IND vs WSH) | Over 7.5 Assists | +115 | 9.0 | 49.9% | 43.5% | +6.4% |
| James Harden (CLE vs NY) | Under 5.5 Assists | +110 | 5.0 | 50.3% | 44.7% | +5.6% |
| Stephen Curry (GS vs HOU) | Under 3.5 Rebounds | +118 | 3.3 | 48.2% | 43.0% | +5.1% |
| Jarrett Allen (CLE vs NY) | Under 7.5 Rebounds | -116 | 6.3 | 56.4% | 50.2% | +6.2% |
| Jakob Poeltl (TOR vs BOS) | Under 7.5 Rebounds | +105 | 6.9 | 50.8% | 45.7% | +5.1% |
| Player | Prop | Odds | Actual | Result | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden Burries | Under 1.5 Threes | -136 | 1 | Win | +0.0 |
| Rui Hachimura | Under 5.5 Rebounds | -153 | 5 | Win | -0.3 |
| Andrew Wiggins | Over 3.5 Rebounds | +130 | 0 | Loss | +1.7 |
| Deni Avdija | Under 7.5 Rebounds | -131 | 6 | Win | +4.0 |
| Donovan Clingan | Under 11.5 Rebounds | -138 | 13 | Loss | +7.1 |
Last night went 3 and 2: Andrew Wiggins didn't grab a single rebound, and Donovan Clingan cleared his line with 13.
- Andrew Nembhard Over 7.5 Assists: He had 12 assists against Dallas on Monday with Tyrese Haliburton still out, so the ball is his and I like the plus-money over.
- James Harden Under 5.5 Assists: He has five assists or fewer in each of his last three games, and a slow game in New York gives him fewer chances, so I'm on the under.
- Stephen Curry Under 3.5 Rebounds: Golden State at Houston projects as one of the slowest games of the night, and the sim has him just under the line, which is enough at plus money.
- Jarrett Allen Under 7.5 Rebounds: He should play only about 22 minutes, and he played 19 on Monday, so eight rebounds is a high bar.
- Jakob Poeltl Under 7.5 Rebounds: This runs against my cash call on him, but the foul trouble risk that could cut his minutes is the same thing that makes the under live.
Season record on these props: 52-48, +3.2 units at one unit each. Closing line value: +2.4 points of win probability on average, and the closing price moved our way on 62 of 95 picks.
Our Number is the simulation's average for that stat. Model and Market are the chance the bet wins, with the market's vig removed. CLV is how many points of win probability the DraftKings closing line moved toward our side after we posted the pick.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Top Plays by Position
| Pos | Rank | Player | Matchup | Salary | Min | Field | Play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | 1 | Luka Doncic | LAL at MIL | $12,300 | 34 | Mid | GPP |
| PG | 2 | Jamal Murray | DEN at MEM | $8,300 | 35 | Popular | Cash |
| PG | 3 | Jalen Brunson | NY vs CLE | $8,700 | 32 | Mid | GPP |
| SG | 1 | RJ Barrett | TOR vs BOS | $8,000 | 36 | Popular | Cash |
| SG | 2 | Donovan Mitchell | CLE at NY | $8,200 | 31 | Mid | GPP |
| SG | 3 | Stephon Castle | SA at CHI | $6,600 | 27 | Popular | Cash |
| SF | 1 | Jayson Tatum | BOS at TOR | $10,300 | 33 | Mid | GPP |
| SF | 2 | Michael Porter Jr. | BKN at NO | $7,500 | 34 | Chalk | Cash |
| SF | 3 | Caleb Wilson | CHI vs SA | $7,700 | 31 | Low | GPP |
| PF | 1 | Anthony Davis | WSH at IND | $8,900 | 32 | Mid | Cash |
| PF | 2 | Karl-Anthony Towns | NY vs CLE | $9,000 | 29 | Mid | GPP |
| PF | 3 | Julius Randle | BKN at NO | $7,700 | 33 | Popular | Cash |
| C | 1 | Nikola Jokic | DEN at MEM | $11,500 | 35 | Mid | GPP |
| C | 2 | Victor Wembanyama | SA at CHI | $11,800 | 27 | Low | GPP |
| C | 3 | Walker Kessler | LAL at MIL | $7,500 | 29 | Mid | GPP |
| Pos | Rank | Player | Matchup | Salary | Min | Field | Play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | 1 | Luka Doncic | LAL at MIL | $12,500 | 34 | Chalk | GPP |
| PG | 2 | Jamal Murray | DEN at MEM | $8,500 | 35 | Chalk | Cash |
| PG | 3 | Jalen Brunson | NY vs CLE | $8,200 | 32 | Popular | Cash |
| SG | 1 | RJ Barrett | TOR vs BOS | $7,200 | 36 | Chalk | Cash |
| SG | 2 | Donovan Mitchell | CLE at NY | $8,100 | 31 | Low | GPP |
| SG | 3 | Austin Reaves | LAL at MIL | $7,400 | 35 | Popular | GPP |
| SF | 1 | Jayson Tatum | BOS at TOR | $10,000 | 33 | Chalk | Cash |
| SF | 2 | Michael Porter | BKN at NO | $7,100 | 34 | Chalk | Cash |
| SF | 3 | AJ Dybantsa | WSH at IND | $6,000 | 32 | Mid | GPP |
| PF | 1 | Anthony Davis | WSH at IND | $9,300 | 32 | Low | GPP |
| PF | 2 | Julius Randle | BKN at NO | $7,100 | 33 | Chalk | Cash |
| PF | 3 | Zion Williamson | NO vs BKN | $7,500 | 34 | Popular | GPP |
| C | 1 | Victor Wembanyama | SA at CHI | $12,400 | 27 | Chalk | Cash |
| C | 2 | Nikola Jokic | DEN at MEM | $12,100 | 34 | Popular | Cash |
| C | 3 | Karl-Anthony Towns | NY vs CLE | $8,500 | 29 | Popular | GPP |
Min is projected minutes. Field is how popular the player should be: Chalk, Popular, Mid or Low.
FanDuel players are piling onto Wembanyama at center, while on DraftKings he's one of the least popular stars on the slate. Anthony Davis draws a middling crowd on DraftKings and is low-owned on FanDuel at $9,300.
Every projection lives on today's NBA DFS projections, and you can build around these in the free NBA lineup optimizer.
Before Lock
- Caleb Wilson (hip): If he sits, Matas Buzelis ($5,500) and Jalen Smith ($5,800) pick up his frontcourt minutes for Chicago.
- Tyler Herro (knee): If he sits, Ryan Rollins ($5,700) and Brayden Burries ($5,300) pick up the guard minutes in a game Milwaukee is a 14.5-point underdog.
- Devin Vassell (groin): If he sits, Dylan Harper ($6,700) and De'Aaron Fox ($6,200) move up, but the 15.5-point spread still caps everyone's minutes in San Antonio.
- Norman Powell (shoulder): If he sits, Josh Giddey ($7,800) and Tre Jones ($4,400) pick up shots for Chicago in the fastest game on the slate.
- Late swap: Four games tip at 8:00 PM ET, Denver at Memphis among them, so keep a Murray-to-Jerome swap ready if anything changes in that game.
Final Thoughts
The cash build runs through two close games with strong totals: Murray and Fears get the minutes and the ball, and Porter adds threes in the same New Orleans game. Poeltl is the risk I'm taking. He played only 19 minutes off the bench on November 4 and carries real foul trouble risk, but he's played 31 minutes in each game since Barnes went down. Most of the field will play Kel'el Ware at center now that Turner sits, so Poeltl gets me a cheap center with far less company.
In tournaments, Mitchell is the pivot off the popular guards, with Ty Jerome as a second way into Denver at Memphis. Cameron Johnson at $4,500 and Day'Ron Sharpe at $5,300 are the cheap plays that free up salary for both.
More slates in the NBA DFS articles archive.
NBA DFS FAQ
Why does pace matter in NBA DFS?
Pace is how many possessions a team uses per 48 minutes, and every possession is a chance to score, rebound or assist. More possessions mean more fantasy points for everyone on the floor. Tonight Memphis ranks 7th in pace, which helps Murray and Jokic even though Denver plays slow.
What is a cash game core in NBA DFS?
A cash game core is the small group of players you build every cash lineup around because their minutes and role are the safest bets on the slate. You only need to beat about half the field, so a steady floor matters more than a huge ceiling. Tonight my core is Murray, Fears, Porter and Poeltl.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN NBA tools: today's NBA DFS projections, the free NBA lineup optimizer, the NBA injury report for DFS, the NBA rotations and minutes tracker, and NBA pace stats.