Philadelphia ruled out LeBron James, and Toronto comes in on the second night of a back-to-back without Scottie Barnes or Kawhi Leonard, so Jaylen Brown gets the ball in a game with a 223.5 total. That is my cash anchor on Thursday's NBA DFS slate for DraftKings and FanDuel, next to Naz Reid and Grayson Allen in a Charlotte rotation missing three regulars. Dallas at Minnesota has the biggest total and the least attention from the field, which makes Cooper Flagg the tournament play I care about most on a four game night.
At a Glance
- Cash core: Grayson Allen, Naz Reid, Daniss Jenkins, Jaylen Brown
- Best GPP pivot: Cooper Flagg ($10,100), the best game on the slate and few people paying up for him
- Best cheap play: Kevin Huerter ($3,900), 33 and 35 minutes off the bench in his last two games
- Check before lock: Joel Embiid (questionable, foot), Philadelphia goes small if he sits
- Late swap: Charlotte at Phoenix, tips 9:00 PM ET
Slate Overview
Switch tabs for tonight's injuries and how last night's picks did.
| Game | Tip (ET) | Spread | Moneyline | Total | Away Total | Home Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET at WSH | 7:00 PM | DET -10.5 | DET -467 / WSH +360 | 220.5 | DET 115.5 | WSH 105.0 |
| TOR at PHI | 7:00 PM | PHI -7.5 | TOR +232 / PHI -285 | 223.5 | TOR 108.0 | PHI 115.5 |
| DAL at MIN | 8:00 PM | MIN -5.5 | DAL +185 / MIN -223 | 225.5 | DAL 110.0 | MIN 115.5 |
| CHA at PHX | 9:00 PM | PHX -6.5 | CHA +201 / PHX -244 | 214.5 | CHA 104.0 | PHX 110.5 |
| Impact | Player | Status | Role | Who benefits (minutes with to without) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Scottie Barnes (TOR F) | Out, groin | 33.4 MIN, 23.5/7.6/5.1 | Alijah Martin ($4,400) 7.0 to 22.7; Jakob Poeltl ($5,500) 20.0 to 31.3 |
| 8 | Brandon Miller (CHA F) | Out, groin | 31.0 MIN, 20.6/4.9/2.2 | Moussa Diabate ($5,600) and Royce O'Neale ($4,200) take his minutes |
| 7 | Joel Embiid (PHI C) | Questionable, foot | 31.8 MIN, 17.7/9.3/3.8 | See Before Lock |
| 7 | LeBron James (PHI F) | Out, back | 32.5 MIN, 15.1/7.2/6.5 | Dean Wade ($3,900) and Jabari Walker ($3,300) take his minutes |
| 6 | Dennis Schroder (CHA G) | Out, hamstring | 30.0 MIN, 10.2/3.6/4.8 | Grayson Allen ($5,900) and Sion James ($4,900) take his minutes |
| - | Kawhi Leonard (TOR) | Out | - | See Toronto at Philadelphia |
| - | Kon Knueppel (CHA) | Out | - | See Charlotte at Phoenix |
| - | Jalen Duren (DET) | Out | - | - |
| Call | Player | Salary | Minutes | DK Pts | Pts per $1K | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash core | Jamal Murray | $8,300 | 32 | 52.50 | 6.3x | Hit |
| Cash core | Michael Porter Jr. | $7,500 | 28 | 37.50 | 5.0x | Solid |
| Cash core | Jeremiah Fears | $6,600 | 28 | 25.50 | 3.9x | Miss |
| Cash core | Jakob Poeltl | $5,200 | 32 | 19.25 | 3.7x | Miss |
| GPP pivot | Donovan Mitchell | $8,200 | 36 | 45.75 | 5.6x | Solid |
| GPP pivot | Ty Jerome | $8,200 | 32 | 32.00 | 3.9x | Miss |
| Value play | Cameron Johnson | $4,500 | 30 | 36.50 | 8.1x | Hit |
| Avoid | Karl-Anthony Towns | $9,000 | 34 | 50.25 | 5.6x | Wrong call |
| Avoid | Day'Ron Sharpe | $5,300 | 19 | 37.50 | 7.1x | Wrong call |
Green is the best scoring spot on the slate, yellow is the middle and red is the weakest. A green spread means a close game.
Dallas at Minnesota has the biggest total and the closest spread on the board, and Detroit giving 10.5 points in Washington is the one blowout I have to respect.
Cameron Johnson was the best call of the night at 8.1x in 30 minutes, and Jamal Murray cleared the bar too. Poeltl and Fears were the misses, and I was wrong on both avoids: Towns put up 50.25 and Day'Ron Sharpe hit 7.1x in only 19 minutes.
Season record: Cash core: 46 of 79 at or above the slate average, 5.4x per $1K against a 5.0x slate average. GPP pivots: 26 of 49 at or above the slate average and 9 at 6x or better, 5.0x per $1K against a 5.0x slate average. Avoids: 17 of 37 right, 5.2x per $1K against a 5.0x slate average.
The slate average counts every player who played 20+ minutes. A GPP pivot is a Hit at 6x per $1K or better and Solid at or above the slate average. Full results are on the NBA DFS results page.
Full injury report, updated all day: NBA injury report for DFS
Games to Target
Toronto at Philadelphia: 223.5 total, PHI -7.5
Cash game. Toronto ranks 15th in pace and Philadelphia 13th, so the pace is only average, but Philadelphia shares the top team total tonight and Toronto is on a back-to-back without Barnes and Leonard. Out: James, Barnes, Leonard, Bona, Hukporti, Barlow, Jackson-Davis, McCullar, Bittle. Questionable: Embiid.
- Jaylen Brown ($8,100): He scored 29 with seven rebounds against Chicago on Sunday and 20 against Cleveland before that, and he averages 21.5 points in 35 minutes this season. LeBron played almost 32 minutes a night over Philadelphia's last five games, and that usage has to go somewhere. He only played 26 minutes against Boston on Tuesday, which is the worry. I love him in cash.
- VJ Edgecombe ($6,100): The NBA rotations and minutes tracker has him at 33.6 minutes a night over Philadelphia's last five, and he had 19 points and four steals against Cleveland last week. The field likes him at this price too. I like this spot a good bit.
- Tyrese Maxey ($8,600): He averages 26.7 points in 36.3 minutes this season and scored 27 with seven assists against Chicago on Sunday. Without LeBron, the ball sits in his hands longer. Fewer cash players are paying for him than for Brown, so I like him a lot in tournaments.
- RJ Barrett ($8,300): He put up 12, 8 and 7 in 31 minutes against Boston last night, and now he plays again on no rest. He carries real foul trouble risk too. He's fine in tournaments.
- Jakob Poeltl ($5,500): He played 32, 31 and 31 minutes in his last three games, but our projection has him at about 24 minutes tonight, and he carries real foul trouble risk on the back-to-back. He scored 19.25 DraftKings points for me last night. I'd pass.
Matchups to target: Brown, Edgecombe, Maxey
Matchups to avoid: Poeltl
Dallas at Minnesota: 225.5 total, MIN -5.5
GPP game. Dallas ranks 7th in pace and Minnesota 10th, our NBA pace stats make this the fastest game of the night, and it has the biggest total and the closest spread, yet the field has the least exposure to it of any game. Out: Edwards, DiVincenzo, Lively, de Larrea, Biberovic. Questionable: None.
- Cooper Flagg ($10,100): He scored 43 with 10 rebounds in 39 minutes against Indiana on Monday, then 25 with 12 assists against Brooklyn. He averages 25.9, 6.9 and 6.9 this season. Few people will pay this price on a small slate. I love him as a pivot.
- Ayo Dosunmu ($6,900): Anthony Edwards is out after a knee procedure, and Dosunmu has played 34.3 minutes a night without him against 26.3 with him. He scored 26, 26 and 21 in his last three. He carries real foul trouble risk, but the minutes are there. I like him a good bit in cash.
- Kyrie Irving ($7,600): He hit seven threes for 35 points against Indiana on Monday, but he scored 14 in 28 minutes against Utah last week. I'll take that range in a tournament. He's solid.
- Jaden McDaniels ($6,800): He played 33, 40 and 37 minutes in his last three games, with 23, 6 and 5 against New Orleans. He carries real foul trouble risk, which is the one thing that can cut those minutes. He's solid.
- LaMelo Ball ($8,200): He scored 24, 22 and 20 in his last three games, but he has only played about 30 minutes a night and he carries real foul trouble risk. At this price I want more minutes. He's fine in tournaments.
Matchups to target: Flagg, Dosunmu, Irving
Matchups to avoid: None
Charlotte at Phoenix: 214.5 total, PHX -6.5
Cash game. Charlotte ranks 28th in pace and Phoenix 24th, so this is the slowest game on the slate, but Charlotte is without Miller, Knueppel and Schroder, and those minutes go to cheap players. Out: Miller, Knueppel, Schroder, Steinbach, Boswell, Ajayi, Williams. Questionable: None.
- Naz Reid ($7,500): He put up 25 and 13 in 32 minutes against Cleveland on Monday and 28 and 9 against Brooklyn before that. He should play about 35 minutes with Miller out. He carries real foul trouble risk, but the role is too big to pass. I love him in cash.
- Grayson Allen ($5,900): He hit six threes for 27 points in 34 minutes against Cleveland on Monday, and he should play about 34 again. He also scored zero in 22 minutes against Boston last week, so the floor is not perfect. Man, that price. I love him in cash.
- Devin Booker ($8,200): He scored 32 in 29 minutes against San Antonio on Monday and 24 against Houston, then 17 against the Clippers on Tuesday. Phoenix is rested tonight, and most cash players are skipping him. He's solid in tournaments.
- Sion James ($4,900): He's an expected starter and played 33 minutes against Cleveland on Monday, with 11 points and three threes. He doesn't score much, but the minutes are there. He's fine as salary relief.
- Dillon Brooks ($5,800): He scored 8 and 7 in his last two games in 22 and 26 minutes, and he carries real foul trouble risk. I do not like him in this spot at all.
Matchups to target: Reid, Allen, Booker
Matchups to avoid: Brooks
Game to fade: Detroit at Washington. Detroit is a 10.5 point favorite against a Washington team on a back-to-back, and Cade Cunningham played only 27 minutes when these teams met on Monday. Jenkins and Huerter still work in cash because a blowout gives their minutes a cushion, but I'd keep tournament exposure to the expensive players here low.
Player Props
These are tonight's top player props from our Monte Carlo prop simulation, priced against the DraftKings line. Switch tabs to see how last night's picks did.
| Player | Prop | Odds | Our Number | Model | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Bridges (PHX vs CHA) | Under 6.5 Rebounds | +101 | 5.4 | 54.5% | 46.6% | +8.0% |
| Grayson Allen (CHA vs PHX) | Under 4.5 Assists | +101 | 3.5 | 55.0% | 46.6% | +8.4% |
| Player | Prop | Odds | Actual | Result | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Nembhard | Over 7.5 Assists | +115 | 10 | Win | +13.0 |
| James Harden | Under 5.5 Assists | +110 | 4 | Win | +3.1 |
| Stephen Curry | Under 3.5 Rebounds | +118 | 0 | Win | +1.4 |
| Jarrett Allen | Under 7.5 Rebounds | -116 | 14 | Loss | +6.5 |
| Jakob Poeltl | Under 7.5 Rebounds | +105 | 9 | Loss | +5.6 |
Last night went 3 and 2: Nembhard handed out 10 assists, but Jarrett Allen grabbed 14 rebounds and blew right through his under.
- Miles Bridges Under 6.5 Rebounds: He played only 18 and 26 minutes in his last two games with four and five rebounds, and the slowest game on the slate means fewer misses to grab, so I like the under.
- Grayson Allen Under 4.5 Assists: This sits next to my cash call on him, but he's in the core for points and threes, and he averages three assists a game this season, so the under is the right side.
Season record on these props: 55-50, +4.7 units at one unit each. Closing line value: +2.6 points of win probability on average, and the closing price moved our way on 67 of 100 picks.
Our Number is the simulation's average for that stat. Model and Market are the chance the bet wins, with the market's vig removed. CLV is how many points of win probability the DraftKings closing line moved toward our side after we posted the pick.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Top Plays by Position
| Pos | Rank | Player | Matchup | Salary | Min | Field | Play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | 1 | Cade Cunningham | DET at WSH | $9,600 | 33 | Popular | GPP |
| PG | 2 | Tyrese Maxey | PHI vs TOR | $8,600 | 36 | Popular | GPP |
| PG | 3 | LaMelo Ball | MIN vs DAL | $8,200 | 29 | Popular | GPP |
| SG | 1 | Jaylen Brown | PHI vs TOR | $8,100 | 35 | Chalk | Cash |
| SG | 2 | RJ Barrett | TOR at PHI | $8,300 | 33 | Mid | GPP |
| SG | 3 | Grayson Allen | CHA at PHX | $5,900 | 34 | Chalk | Cash |
| SF | 1 | Cooper Flagg | DAL at MIN | $10,100 | 34 | Mid | GPP |
| SF | 2 | Jaden McDaniels | MIN vs DAL | $6,800 | 34 | Popular | Cash |
| SF | 3 | Ausar Thompson | DET at WSH | $6,500 | 27 | Popular | GPP |
| PF | 1 | Anthony Davis | WSH vs DET | $9,000 | 32 | Popular | GPP |
| PF | 2 | Naz Reid | CHA at PHX | $7,500 | 35 | Chalk | Cash |
| PF | 3 | Miles Bridges | PHX vs CHA | $7,100 | 29 | Mid | GPP |
| C | 1 | Joel Embiid | PHI vs TOR | $8,300 | 31 | Popular | Cash |
| C | 2 | Rudy Gobert | MIN vs DAL | $5,800 | 28 | Popular | GPP |
| C | 3 | Paul Reed | DET at WSH | $6,400 | 26 | Low | GPP |
| Pos | Rank | Player | Matchup | Salary | Min | Field | Play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | 1 | Cade Cunningham | DET at WSH | $9,900 | 33 | Chalk | Cash |
| PG | 2 | Tyrese Maxey | PHI vs TOR | $8,700 | 36 | Chalk | Cash |
| PG | 3 | LaMelo Ball | MIN vs DAL | $7,800 | 29 | Chalk | Cash |
| SG | 1 | RJ Barrett | TOR at PHI | $7,400 | 32 | Popular | GPP |
| SG | 2 | Grayson Allen | CHA at PHX | $5,500 | 34 | Chalk | Cash |
| SG | 3 | Ausar Thompson | DET at WSH | $6,200 | 27 | Chalk | Cash |
| SF | 1 | Cooper Flagg | DAL at MIN | $10,300 | 34 | Chalk | GPP |
| SF | 2 | Jaylen Brown | PHI vs TOR | $7,800 | 35 | Chalk | Cash |
| SF | 3 | AJ Dybantsa | WSH vs DET | $6,100 | 32 | Low | GPP |
| PF | 1 | Anthony Davis | WSH vs DET | $9,400 | 33 | Popular | GPP |
| PF | 2 | Naz Reid | CHA at PHX | $7,300 | 35 | Chalk | Cash |
| PF | 3 | Jaden McDaniels | MIN vs DAL | $6,500 | 34 | Chalk | Cash |
| C | 1 | Joel Embiid | PHI vs TOR | $7,900 | 31 | Popular | GPP |
| C | 2 | Rudy Gobert | MIN vs DAL | $5,800 | 28 | Popular | GPP |
| C | 3 | Paul Reed | DET at WSH | $6,000 | 25 | Mid | GPP |
Min is projected minutes. Field is how popular the player should be: Chalk, Popular, Mid or Low.
FanDuel players are stacking up on the expensive point guards, so Cunningham, Maxey and Ball are all chalk there, while on DraftKings they're popular but not crowded. Cooper Flagg tells the same story: chalk on FanDuel, a middling crowd on DraftKings, which is one more reason to play him on DraftKings.
Every projection lives on today's NBA DFS projections, and you can build around these in the free NBA lineup optimizer.
Before Lock
- Joel Embiid (foot): He's questionable but took part in the morning shootaround. If he sits, Tacko Fall ($3,000) is the only other center Philadelphia has in the player pool, so expect a small lineup and more shots for Brown and Maxey.
- Back-to-backs: Toronto and Washington both played last night. That's part of why I'm fading Detroit at Washington and passing on Poeltl.
- Late swap: Charlotte at Phoenix tips last at 9:00 PM ET, so keep a swap from Allen or Reid to Booker ready if Charlotte's injury list changes.
Final Thoughts
The cash build leans on injuries. Allen and Reid soak up the minutes Charlotte lost, and Brown takes over LeBron's touches in a game where Philadelphia shares the top team total. Jenkins is the risk I'm taking: he plays in the one game with a 10.5 point spread, but he played 36 and 32 minutes in his last two with 22 and 31 points, and almost every cash lineup will have him.
In tournaments, Flagg is the pivot that gets me into the best game on the slate with little company, with Maxey as a second way off the popular cash build. Kevin Huerter at $3,900 is the cheap play that pays for both.
More slates in the NBA DFS articles archive.
NBA DFS FAQ
How does a back-to-back affect NBA DFS players?
A team on the second night of a back-to-back has tired legs, and coaches sometimes cut starters' minutes or rest players with small injuries. That can lower a player's floor even when his price stays the same. Tonight Toronto and Washington are both on a back-to-back, which is why I'm careful with Barrett and Poeltl.
How do injuries change NBA DFS picks?
When a starter is out, his minutes and shots go to teammates, and their salaries often don't catch up in time. You find most of a slate's value in those players. Tonight Charlotte is missing Miller, Knueppel and Schroder, so Allen and Reid become two of the best values on the board.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN NBA tools: today's NBA DFS projections, the free NBA lineup optimizer, the NBA injury report for DFS, the NBA rotations and minutes tracker, and NBA pace stats.