No team gives up more 5v5 shots than Toronto, and Anthony Stolarz is expected in net behind that defense when Minnesota comes to town. We build around the Minnesota top power play unit (MIN PP1) and put Akira Schmid in goal for Florida, the only big favorite in net with a confirmed start. Dallas PP1 draws a Winnipeg penalty kill that ranks 27th, and a Florida unit few people will touch gives us a third build. With ten games on the board, that Panthers stack is where we split from the crowd.
Last Night
Devon Levi did not start for Edmonton. Tristan Jarry took the net and won with 20 DK points, so our goalie pick goes down as no result. The Anaheim PP1 scored 59.4 DK points, fifth of the 12 PP1 units, which is a miss, while our Tampa Bay third stack led every unit with 154.7. Drew Helleson paid off his $2,900 price with 9.3 DK points, and Brayden McNabb got his three blocks, but MacKenzie Weegar blocked only one shot. Since Oct. 29, our cash goalie is 10-3, the main stack has hit 8 of 14 times, our value plays 10 of 27, our blocks picks 6 of 14 and our props 6-4.
Slate Overview
Lock is 7:00 PM ET, when five games drop the puck. Switch tabs for the goalies, the injuries, the line matchup edges and our blocks picks.
| Game | Total | Favorite | Implied goals | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN @ TOR | 6.5 | MIN -172 | MIN 3.50, TOR 2.87 | TOR kill 21st |
| TBL @ CBJ | 6.5 | TBL -114 | TBL 3.24, CBJ 3.19 | TBL back-to-back with travel |
| MTL @ BOS | 6.5 | BOS -125 | BOS 3.22, MTL 3.04 | BOS on three days of rest |
| WSH @ NJD | 6.5 | NJD -152 | NJD 3.33, WSH 2.88 | WSH power play 25th |
| COL @ OTT | 6.5 | COL -120 | COL 3.27, OTT 3.14 | none |
| DET @ FLA | 5.5 | FLA -172 | FLA 3.19, DET 2.59 | FLA power play 2nd |
| BUF @ CHI | 6.5 | BUF -154 | BUF 3.48, CHI 2.99 | BUF back-to-back with travel |
| WPG @ DAL | 5.5 | DAL -172 | DAL 3.11, WPG 2.53 | DAL power play 1st, WPG kill 27th |
| STL @ UTA | 5.5 | UTA -115 | UTA 2.96, STL 2.90 | UTA back-to-back with travel |
| NYI @ LAK | 5.5 | LAK -125 | LAK 3.00, NYI 2.82 | NYI kill 29th |
| Goalie | Status | Win chance | Opp. goals | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesper Wallstedt (MIN) | Expected | 60.5% | 2.87 | $8,300 |
| Akira Schmid (FLA) | Confirmed | 60.5% | 2.59 | $8,400 |
| Jake Oettinger (DAL) | Expected | 60.3% | 2.53 | $8,500 |
| Colten Ellis (BUF) | Expected | 58.0% | 2.99 | $8,100 |
| Connor Hellebuyck (NJD) | Expected | 57.7% | 2.88 | $8,200 |
| Jeremy Swayman (BOS) | Expected | 53.1% | 3.04 | $7,900 |
| Darcy Kuemper (LAK) | Expected | 53.1% | 2.82 | $7,800 |
| MacKenzie Blackwood (COL) | Expected | 52.2% | 3.14 | $7,900 |
| Karel Vejmelka (UTA) | Expected | 51.2% | 2.90 | $8,000 |
| Dennis Hildeby (TBL) | Expected | 51.0% | 3.19 | $7,800 |
| Jet Greaves (CBJ) | Expected | 49.0% | 3.24 | $7,600 |
| Joel Hofer (STL) | Expected | 48.8% | 2.96 | $7,400 |
| Linus Ullmark (OTT) | Expected | 47.8% | 3.27 | $7,500 |
| Ilya Sorokin (NYI) | Expected | 46.9% | 3.00 | $7,600 |
| Jacob Fowler (MTL) | Confirmed | 46.9% | 3.22 | $7,500 |
| Logan Thompson (WSH) | Expected | 42.3% | 3.33 | $7,200 |
| Spencer Knight (CHI) | Expected | 42.0% | 3.48 | $7,300 |
| Stuart Skinner (WPG) | Expected | 39.7% | 3.11 | $6,900 |
| Anthony Stolarz (TOR) | Expected | 39.5% | 3.50 | $7,100 |
| John Gibson (DET) | Expected | 39.5% | 3.19 | $7,000 |
| Player (team, pos) | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Larkin (DET, C) | Injured reserve (suspension) | 9 | Andrew Copp, Alex DeBrincat |
| Dylan Guenther (UTA, RW) | Injured reserve | 9 | Lawson Crouse, Clayton Keller |
| Miro Heiskanen (DAL, D) | Out | 8 | Nils Lundkvist, Thomas Harley |
| Kirill Marchenko (TOR, RW) | Injured reserve | 8 | Auston Matthews, William Nylander |
| Brayden Point (TBL, C) | Injured reserve | 7 | Nikita Kucherov, Jake Guentzel |
| Patrick Kane (CHI, RW) | Injured reserve | 7 | Connor Bedard, Anton Frondell |
| Anthony Mantha (NJD, RW) | Injured reserve | 7 | Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier |
| Nick Schmaltz (UTA, C) | Day-to-day | 6 | Clayton Keller, Lawson Crouse |
| Line | Players | Edge | Main opponent | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN D1 | Quinn Hughes, Jared Spurgeon | +10.6 | TOR F1 (43% of 5v5 time) | Full pair, 265 min |
| MIN F1 | Kaprizov, Boldy, Eriksson Ek | +10.4 | TOR F1 (46% of 5v5 time) | Full line, 395 min |
| FLA F1 | Brady Tkachuk, Matthew Tkachuk, Bennett | +8.2 | DET F1 (46% of 5v5 time) | Full line, 136 min |
| Player | Pair | PP | Blocks | 3+ chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandt Clarke (LAK, $5,700) | D2 | PP1 | about 2 | 41% |
| Jonas Brodin (MIN, $3,800) | D2 | none | about 2 | 34% |
The best special teams spot of the night is in Dallas, where the power play that ranks first in expected goals meets a Winnipeg kill that ranks 27th. A line edge is the share of 5v5 expected goals a line should win against the lines it will see most, minus 50; we use it as a tiebreaker. For the full grids, see team matchups, the injury report and line matchups.
Starting Goalies
Akira Schmid (FLA, $8,400), cash
Schmid is confirmed, and he is tied for the best win chance on the slate. Detroit ranks 27th in 5v5 goals per 60, and the Red Wings play again without Dylan Larkin, who is suspended. He should make about 24 saves with a 6% shutout chance. Wallstedt has the same win chance for $100 less, but he is not confirmed yet and more people will play him.
Jake Oettinger (DAL, $8,500), GPP
Oettinger is expected to start, not yet confirmed. Dallas allows the fewest high-danger chances at 5v5 in the league, and the Winnipeg forwards rate well below the Dallas defense in our Elo matchup ratings. He should see about 21 saves, so his score rides on the win, but his 9% shutout chance is the best on the slate. If Dallas turns to its backup, switch to Wallstedt. Every starter is on the starting goalies page.
Stacks to Target
Each header shows the three-player core we would build around and what that core costs. Switch tabs for the stack summary and our top plays at each spot.
| Stack | Core | Core salary | Big night (full unit) | Field | Contest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN PP1 | Kaprizov, Boldy, Quinn Hughes | $23,200 | about 107 DK points | Chalk | Cash and GPP |
| DAL PP1 | Robertson, Rantanen, Harley | $19,000 | about 92 DK points | Popular | Small field GPP |
| FLA PP1 | Brady Tkachuk, Matthew Tkachuk, Reinhart | $21,800 | about 91 DK points | Less popular | Large field GPP |
| Player | Pos | Salary | Role | Use |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Eriksson Ek (MIN) | C | $6,000 | F1, PP1 | Cash |
| Nathan MacKinnon (COL) | C | $9,200 | F1, PP1 | GPP |
| David Pastrnak (BOS) | W | $7,900 | F1, PP1 | Cash |
| Tage Thompson (BUF) | W | $8,600 | F1, PP1 | GPP |
| Zach Werenski (CBJ) | D | $7,700 | D1, PP1 | Cash |
| Jakob Chychrun (WSH) | D | $6,000 | D1, PP2 | GPP |
| Jared Spurgeon (MIN) | D | $3,200 | D1, PP2 | Value |
| Nils Lundkvist (DAL) | D | $2,600 | D1 | Value |
| Akira Schmid (FLA) | G | $8,400 | Confirmed | Cash |
| Jake Oettinger (DAL) | G | $8,500 | Expected | GPP |
MIN PP1: Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, Quinn Hughes ($23,200 for the core)
Stolarz is expected for Toronto, not yet confirmed. Kaprizov and Boldy play on the top line with Joel Eriksson Ek (MIN F1), which wins 53.8% of the 5v5 shot attempts when it is on the ice. The Minnesota forwards also get our SMASH tag, which means they rate well above the defense they face. The Wild power play ranks 7th in expected goals against a Toronto kill that ranks 21st. Eriksson Ek ($6,000) and Maxim Shabanov ($3,500) finish the unit, and the full five-man PP1 fits with any goalie on the slate. We use it as our cash core and our main GPP stack.
DAL PP1: Jason Robertson, Mikko Rantanen, Thomas Harley ($19,000 for the core)
Stuart Skinner is expected for Winnipeg, not yet confirmed. Dallas comes in on four days of rest, and its power play gets the best special teams spot on the board. Robertson plays on the top line, which wins 51.7% of the 5v5 shot attempts, while Rantanen plays on the second line and both meet on PP1. With Miro Heiskanen out, Harley should play about 25 minutes. Wyatt Johnston ($6,500) and Roope Hintz ($5,100) complete the unit, and all five fit under the cap with any goalie. It pairs with Oettinger in small field GPPs.
FLA PP1: Brady Tkachuk, Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart ($21,800 for the core, contrarian)
John Gibson is expected for Detroit, not yet confirmed. The Tkachuk brothers play together on the Florida top line, which wins 55.8% of the 5v5 shot attempts when it is on the ice, and Reinhart joins them on PP1. The Panthers power play ranks 2nd in expected goals, and the Detroit kill ranks 23rd. Carter Verhaeghe ($5,900) and Seth Jones ($5,800) round out the unit, and the full five fits with any goalie. Few people will play it, so it is our large field stack, and it lines up with Schmid in net. All the line combinations are on the lines page.
How to Build It
For cash, the Minnesota core plus Schmid costs $31,600 and leaves $18,400 for five spots, about $3,680 each. In large fields, cut the core to Kaprizov and Boldy with Oettinger; that costs $24,800 and leaves $4,200 a spot for six skaters.
For a 4-3-1 build, take four from Minnesota PP1 by adding Shabanov to the core. With Oettinger, that is $35,200 and leaves $14,800 for four skaters, about $3,700 each, so the three-man piece has to be a cheaper line near $10,500, not a second top unit. The 3-3-2 build for single entry and 3-max starts from the Minnesota core and Schmid with $3,680 a spot, which fits a second three-man line near $10,000 and a two-man pair near $8,000. DraftKings needs skaters from at least three teams, so the last piece has to come from a third team.
Value Stack
CBJ F1: Adam Fantilli, Kent Johnson, Matthew Knies ($13,700 for the unit)
This line has a big night in the top half of the slate and costs less than any other unit that does. The Columbus forwards do rate below the Tampa Bay defense, so this is a price play: Tampa Bay comes in on the second night of a back-to-back after travel.
Chalk and Pivots
Chalk stack: MIN PP1. Pivot: FLA PP1 ($33,500). The Florida unit costs $800 more and its big night sits lower, but far fewer people will play it. In cash, we play the chalk.
Chalk goalie: Jesper Wallstedt ($8,300). Pivot: Jake Oettinger ($8,500). Oettinger has almost the same win chance, the best shutout chance on the slate and fewer people on him.
Fades
Connor Bedard ($5,500). He is the most popular skater on the slate, and the Chicago power play ranks 31st in expected goals. The Chicago forwards also get our TOUGH tag against Buffalo, so they rate well below the defense they face. Let the field have him tonight.
Skaters
Centers
Joel Eriksson Ek ($6,000): cash. He centers Kaprizov and Boldy on the Minnesota top line and plays on PP1, so he scores when our main stack scores. He should play about 19 minutes and get three shots. Fewer people play him than his wingers, which helps in cash too.
Nathan MacKinnon ($9,200): GPP. Colorado's top-line center runs PP1 for the team that leads the league in 5v5 goals per 60 and plays at the fastest 5v5 pace. He should get three or four shots with a 26% chance at five or more. His price keeps most of the field away.
Wingers
David Pastrnak ($7,900): cash. Boston's top-line shooter plays on PP1 and should play about 21 minutes. He has a 30% chance at five or more shots, and the Bruins come in on three days of rest.
Tage Thompson ($8,600): GPP. Thompson plays on the Buffalo top line and PP1, and the Buffalo forwards get our SMASH tag against Chicago. He should get about four shots with a 34% chance at five or more. Buffalo did play last night and travel, but his crowd will be a fraction of what the Minnesota wingers draw.
Defensemen
Zach Werenski ($7,700): cash. He plays on the Columbus top pair and PP1, should play about 25 minutes, and has the highest projection of any defenseman tonight. Tampa Bay is on a back-to-back with travel, and the Columbus defensemen rate well above the Tampa Bay defense.
Jakob Chychrun ($6,000): GPP. Chychrun plays on the Washington top pair and PP2 and should play about 24 minutes. The Washington defensemen rate further above their opponent than any other defense group tonight, and he has a 29% chance at three or more blocks. He should go overlooked next to the forwards at his price.
Value Plays
Jared Spurgeon (MIN D, $3,200): He plays on the top pair with Quinn Hughes, so he is on the ice with our main stack at 5v5, and he runs PP2. That pair sits near the top of the Line Edges tab.
Nils Lundkvist (DAL D, $2,600): With Heiskanen out, Lundkvist moves up to the top pair next to Harley and should play about 20 minutes. He is a near-minimum price on the ice with our Dallas stack.
Before Lock
- Schmid and Jacob Fowler are the only confirmed goalies on the main slate. If Dallas turns to its backup, move from Oettinger to Wallstedt.
- Tampa Bay, Buffalo and Utah all play the second night of a back-to-back after travel. Watch for backup goalies there, Colten Ellis in Buffalo most of all.
- Linus Ullmark is listed day-to-day for Ottawa, and Utah's Nick Schmaltz and Logan Cooley are both day-to-day.
- Five games start at 7:00 PM ET, DET @ FLA at 7:30, BUF @ CHI and WPG @ DAL at 8:00, STL @ UTA at 9:00 and NYI @ LAK at 10:00. Put a skater from the Los Angeles game, such as Brandt Clarke, in UTIL so you can still swap. Darcy Kuemper and Ilya Sorokin are not confirmed for that game.
Final Thoughts
Our cash core is Schmid with Kaprizov, Boldy and Quinn Hughes for $31,600, which leaves $3,680 a spot. In GPPs, we run Oettinger with Dallas PP1 or the Florida unit, and we leave Bedard to the field. Full numbers for every skater are on the projections page.
NHL DFS FAQ
Should you pair your goalie with your skater stack?
Yes, when they share a team. A goalie wins when his team scores, so Oettinger with Dallas PP1 or Schmid with the Florida unit both point the same way. Avoid a goalie who faces your stack, because your skaters' goals turn into his goals against.
Why do you stack a forward line in NHL DFS?
The players on a line are on the ice together, so one goal often gives points to two or three of them. The Minnesota top line plays together at 5v5 and on PP1, which is why it carries our main build tonight.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the BankrollSZN NHL tools: today's NHL DFS projections, the NHL lineup optimizer, NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks, today's NHL starting goalies, and NHL odds and player props.