Atlanta at Chicago carries a 245.5 total, ten points more than any other game on Friday's NBA DFS slate, and it puts the fastest and third fastest teams in the league on the same floor. Evan Mobley is out for Cleveland, which puts Jaylon Tyson in line to start at $4,200 on DraftKings, and Memphis is resting Zach Edey, so Isaiah Stewart is expected to start at $3,900 for DraftKings and FanDuel players who need salary relief. With six games on the main slate, most cash lineups will start with those two cheap players.
At a Glance
- Cash core: Jaylon Tyson, Isaiah Stewart, Matas Buzelis, Donovan Mitchell
- Best GPP pivot: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,500), the top projection on the slate with few takers
- Best cheap play: Meleek Thomas ($4,500), more minutes with Sam Merrill out
- Check before lock: Norman Powell (questionable, shoulder), Josh Giddey gets more of the ball if he sits
- Late swap: Utah at Houston, tips 8:30 PM ET
Slate Overview
Switch tabs for tonight's injuries and how last night's picks did.
| Game | Tip (ET) | Spread | Moneyline | Total | Away Total | Home Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL at ORL | 7:00 PM | ORL -9.5 | MIL +312 / ORL -395 | 223.5 | MIL 107.0 | ORL 116.5 |
| NY at IND | 7:00 PM | NY -8.5 | NY -337 / IND +271 | 219.5 | NY 114.0 | IND 105.5 |
| ATL at CHI | 8:00 PM | ATL -7.5 | ATL -290 / CHI +236 | 245.5 | ATL 126.5 | CHI 119.0 |
| CLE at MIA | 8:00 PM | MIA -2.5 | CLE +114 / MIA -135 | 235.5 | CLE 116.5 | MIA 119.0 |
| MEM at NO | 8:00 PM | MEM -3.5 | MEM -153 / NO +129 | 235.5 | MEM 119.5 | NO 116.0 |
| UTAH at HOU | 8:30 PM | HOU -15.5 | UTAH +810 / HOU -1340 | 220.5 | UTAH 102.5 | HOU 118.0 |
| Impact | Player | Status | Role | Who benefits (minutes with to without) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Evan Mobley (CLE C) | Out, toe | 32.1 MIN, 16.9/7.3/3.6 | Jarrett Allen ($5,700) and Thomas Bryant ($4,100) take his minutes |
| 8 | Caleb Wilson (CHI F) | Out, hand | 30.7 MIN, 18.9/6.2/1.9 | Matas Buzelis ($5,800) and Patrick Williams ($4,000) take his minutes |
| 8 | Lauri Markkanen (UTAH F) | Out, hand | 30.9 MIN, 18.0/6.8/2.0 | Isaiah Collier ($4,900) 14.5 to 19.0; Brice Sensabaugh ($4,400) 13.9 to 17.0 |
| 7 | Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIA F) | Probable, wrist | 32.7 MIN, 27.7/12.6/5.2 | See Cleveland at Miami |
| 7 | Trey Murphy III (NO F) | Out, knee | 32.8 MIN, 15.6/4.8/3.6 | Herbert Jones ($4,500) 21.0 to 28.7; Jeremiah Fears ($6,800) 28.3 to 30.3 |
| 6 | Norman Powell (CHI G) | Questionable, shoulder | 28.9 MIN, 19.3/2.5/1.6 | See Before Lock |
| 6 | Jalen Suggs (ORL G) | Questionable, knee | 33.3 MIN, 8.0/5.0/5.7 | See Before Lock |
| 6 | Zach Edey (MEM C) | Out, ankle | 20.8 MIN, 7.6/7.7/0.9 | Isaiah Stewart ($3,900) takes his minutes |
| - | Paolo Banchero (ORL) | Out | - | - |
| - | Dejounte Murray (NO) | Out | 29.6 MIN | See Memphis at New Orleans |
| Call | Player | Salary | Minutes | DK Pts | Pts per $1K | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash core | Naz Reid | $7,500 | 34 | 35.00 | 4.7x | Miss |
| Cash core | Daniss Jenkins | $5,000 | 42 | 34.00 | 6.8x | Hit |
| Cash core | Jaylen Brown | $8,100 | 36 | 32.00 | 4.0x | Miss |
| Cash core | Grayson Allen | $5,900 | 34 | 30.00 | 5.1x | Miss |
| GPP pivot | Tyrese Maxey | $8,600 | 35 | 47.00 | 5.5x | Solid |
| GPP pivot | Cooper Flagg | $10,100 | 27 | 28.75 | 2.9x | Miss |
| Value play | Kevin Huerter | $3,900 | 24 | 14.25 | 3.7x | Miss |
| Avoid | Dillon Brooks | $5,800 | 30 | 23.75 | 4.1x | Right call |
| Avoid | Jakob Poeltl | $5,500 | 25 | 21.75 | 4.0x | Right call |
Green is the best scoring spot on the slate, yellow is the middle and red is the weakest. A green spread means a close game.
Atlanta has a 126.5 team total, seven points more than anyone else tonight, and Houston giving 15.5 points to Utah is the one game where I worry about starters sitting in the fourth.
Daniss Jenkins played 42 minutes and was my best call at 6.8x. The other three cash core players missed, with Jaylen Brown the worst at 32 DraftKings points in 36 minutes, and my pivot Cooper Flagg managed 2.9x in 27 minutes. Both avoids were right.
Season record: Cash core: 47 of 83 at or above the slate average, 5.4x per $1K against a 5.0x slate average. GPP pivots: 27 of 51 at or above the slate average and 9 at 6x or better, 4.9x per $1K against a 5.0x slate average. Avoids: 19 of 39 right, 5.2x per $1K against a 5.0x slate average.
The slate average counts every player who played 20+ minutes. A GPP pivot is a Hit at 6x per $1K or better and Solid at or above the slate average. Full results are on the NBA DFS results page.
Full injury report, updated all day: NBA injury report for DFS
Games to Target
Atlanta at Chicago: 245.5 total, ATL -7.5
Cash game. Chicago ranks 1st in pace and Atlanta 3rd, our NBA pace stats call this the fastest game on the slate, and both teams have a top three team total. Out: Wilson. Questionable: Powell, Flemings.
- Jalen Johnson ($9,300): He scored 30 against Brooklyn last Saturday and played 38 minutes against the Lakers on Monday. Atlanta has the biggest team total on the slate, and a lot of it runs through him. He costs a lot for cash, but I love him in this game.
- Matas Buzelis ($5,800): Caleb Wilson is out four to six weeks with a hand injury, and Buzelis played 31 minutes in each of the last two games, with 19 points against Philadelphia and 13 against San Antonio, three threes each time. He should play about 29 minutes in the fastest game of the night. I love him at this price.
- Josh Giddey ($7,900): He had 19 points, seven rebounds and 15 assists against Philadelphia on Sunday, then nine points in 25 minutes against San Antonio. Hardly anyone is playing him, and his range is as wide as anyone's on the slate. He's my favorite tournament play in this game.
- Jalen Smith ($5,900): He scored 23 with five threes in 30 minutes against San Antonio on Wednesday and had 17 points and four blocks against Philadelphia before that. He played only seven minutes against New York last week, so the floor isn't perfect. I like him a good bit.
- Onyeka Okongwu ($6,500): He has played 30 to 33 minutes in each of his last five games, but he carries real foul trouble risk tonight, and Chicago gets to the line a lot. At this price I'd rather have Smith. I'd pass.
Matchups to target: Johnson, Buzelis, Giddey, Smith
Matchups to avoid: Okongwu
Cleveland at Miami: 235.5 total, MIA -2.5
GPP game. Miami ranks 2nd in pace and Cleveland 16th, the spread is the closest on the slate, and the field is piling onto the Cleveland side while Miami's 119.0 team total gets little attention. Out: Mobley, Merrill, Larsson. Questionable: None.
- Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,500): He scored 30 with 11 rebounds against Utah on Tuesday and 29 with 14 against Sacramento on Sunday. Miami moved him from probable to active after a wrist issue, and he's expected to start. He has the top projection on the slate, and the field mostly won't pay for him. I love him in tournaments.
- Bam Adebayo ($8,300): He had 35 and 10 in 41 minutes against the Clippers last week, and he had four steals against Utah on Tuesday. With Mobley out, Cleveland is thin up front. Fewer people are clicking him than Cleveland's stars. I like this spot a good bit.
- Donovan Mitchell ($8,100): He scored 37 with five threes against New York last Saturday and 23 with seven rebounds and six assists against the Knicks on Wednesday. He played only 23 minutes against Charlotte on Monday, which is the risk I'm taking in a close game. I like him in cash.
- Jaylon Tyson ($4,200): He's expected to start with Mobley out and should play about 28 minutes. The NBA rotations and minutes tracker shows he played in only one of Cleveland's last five games, and he scored three points in 23 minutes against New York on Wednesday, so the scoring is thin. Man, that price. I love him in cash.
- Meleek Thomas ($4,500): Sam Merrill is out with an elbow injury, and Thomas plays 24.3 minutes a night without him against 22.2 with him. He hit four threes for 18 points against Charlotte on Monday and scored 14 against New York on Wednesday. He's a good value at $4,500.
Matchups to target: Antetokounmpo, Adebayo, Mitchell, Tyson, Thomas
Matchups to avoid: None
Memphis at New Orleans: 235.5 total, MEM -3.5
Cash game. New Orleans ranks 7th in pace and Memphis 10th, the spread is tight, and the injuries open big roles on both sides: Edey sits for Memphis, and Murphy and Murray are out for New Orleans. Out: Edey, Pippen, Murphy, Murray, Missi, Watford. Questionable: Mathurin.
- Isaiah Stewart ($3,900): He's expected to start with Edey out, and he should play about 25 minutes. He scored 24 in 21 minutes against Sacramento on Halloween and 14 in 28 minutes against New Orleans on Nov. 2. He carries real foul trouble risk, but at this price the minutes are enough. I love him in cash.
- Jeremiah Fears ($6,800): Murphy and Murray are both out, and Fears scored 25 against the Clippers on Sunday and 24 in 36 minutes against Minnesota before that. He has only played 28 or 29 minutes in his last three games, though. He's solid.
- Cameron Boozer ($7,900): He had 22 points, seven rebounds and eight assists against Toronto on Monday and 13, 11 and 5 against Denver on Wednesday. He played 38 minutes against New Orleans on Nov. 2. I'm happy playing him in either format.
- Ty Jerome ($8,000): He scored 40 with five threes in 37 minutes against New Orleans on Nov. 2, then 27 and 22 in his last two games. Fewer people are playing him than Fears or Boozer. He's my tournament play in this game.
- Herbert Jones ($4,500): Murphy is out, and Jones plays 28.7 minutes without him against 21.0 with him. He has scored 4, 10 and 2 points in his last three games, and he carries real foul trouble risk tonight. I do not like him in this spot at all.
Matchups to target: Stewart, Fears, Boozer, Jerome
Matchups to avoid: Jones
Game to fade: Utah at Houston. Houston is a 15.5 point favorite, and Utah has the lowest team total on the slate at 102.5 without Markkanen or Jaren Jackson Jr. If this turns into a blowout, Sengun and Durant could sit in the fourth, so I'd keep exposure to Houston's expensive players low.
Player Props
These are tonight's top player props from our Monte Carlo prop simulation, priced against the DraftKings line. Switch tabs to see how last night's picks did.
| Player | Prop | Odds | Our Number | Model | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domantas Sabonis (SAC vs POR) | Under 5.5 Assists | +117 | 4.9 | 49.6% | 43.2% | +6.4% |
| Myles Turner (MIL vs ORL) | Under 1.5 Threes | -107 | 1.1 | 55.2% | 48.4% | +6.8% |
| Brayden Burries (MIL vs ORL) | Under 3.5 Assists | -162 | 2.3 | 64.7% | 57.9% | +6.9% |
| Brook Lopez (LAC vs OKC) | Under 5.5 Rebounds | -120 | 4.6 | 56.6% | 51.0% | +5.6% |
| Franz Wagner (ORL vs MIL) | Under 7.5 Assists | -134 | 6.2 | 59.3% | 53.6% | +5.7% |
| Player | Prop | Odds | Actual | Result | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Bridges | Under 6.5 Rebounds | +101 | 6 | Win | +5.2 |
| Grayson Allen | Under 4.5 Assists | +101 | 6 | Loss | +4.2 |
Last night split 1 and 1: Miles Bridges stayed under with six rebounds, and Grayson Allen handed out six assists to beat his under.
- Domantas Sabonis Under 5.5 Assists: He carries real foul trouble risk against Portland, and fewer minutes means fewer assists, so I like the under.
- Myles Turner Under 1.5 Threes: He should play about 27 minutes in a game that runs a little slower than average, and he also carries real foul trouble risk. I'll take the under.
- Brayden Burries Under 3.5 Assists: He should play about 26 minutes, and our number sits more than a full assist below the line, so I'm fine with the price.
- Brook Lopez Under 5.5 Rebounds: Oklahoma City at the Clippers projects slower than the league average, and fewer possessions leave fewer rebounds to grab.
- Franz Wagner Under 7.5 Assists: Jalen Suggs is questionable, and Wagner played 33 minutes with him against 38.3 without him, so this one depends on Suggs playing.
Season record on these props: 56-51, +4.7 units at one unit each. Closing line value: +2.6 points of win probability on average, and the closing price moved our way on 69 of 102 picks.
Our Number is the simulation's average for that stat. Model and Market are the chance the bet wins, with the market's vig removed. CLV is how many points of win probability the DraftKings closing line moved toward our side after we posted the pick.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Top Plays by Position
| Pos | Rank | Player | Matchup | Salary | Min | Field | Play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | 1 | Jalen Brunson | NY at IND | $8,500 | 35 | Mid | GPP |
| PG | 2 | Ty Jerome | MEM at NO | $8,000 | 30 | Mid | GPP |
| PG | 3 | Jeremiah Fears | NO vs MEM | $6,800 | 31 | Popular | Cash |
| SG | 1 | Donovan Mitchell | CLE at MIA | $8,100 | 33 | Popular | Cash |
| SG | 2 | Desmond Bane | ORL vs MIL | $7,400 | 33 | Mid | GPP |
| SG | 3 | Cedric Coward | MEM at NO | $5,900 | 27 | Popular | GPP |
| SF | 1 | Franz Wagner | ORL vs MIL | $9,500 | 35 | Mid | GPP |
| SF | 2 | Kevin Durant | HOU vs UTAH | $7,600 | 33 | Mid | GPP |
| SF | 3 | Matas Buzelis | CHI vs ATL | $5,800 | 29 | Chalk | Cash |
| PF | 1 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | MIA vs CLE | $11,500 | 34 | Low | GPP |
| PF | 2 | Jalen Johnson | ATL at CHI | $9,300 | 33 | Popular | Cash |
| PF | 3 | Alperen Sengun | HOU vs UTAH | $9,400 | 35 | Popular | Cash |
| C | 1 | Bam Adebayo | MIA vs CLE | $8,300 | 34 | Popular | GPP |
| C | 2 | Onyeka Okongwu | ATL at CHI | $6,500 | 29 | Mid | GPP |
| C | 3 | Jalen Smith | CHI vs ATL | $5,900 | 25 | Popular | GPP |
| Pos | Rank | Player | Matchup | Salary | Min | Field | Play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | 1 | Jalen Brunson | NY at IND | $8,300 | 35 | Mid | GPP |
| PG | 2 | Ty Jerome | MEM at NO | $7,600 | 30 | Popular | GPP |
| PG | 3 | Jeremiah Fears | NO vs MEM | $6,000 | 31 | Chalk | Cash |
| SG | 1 | Donovan Mitchell | CLE at MIA | $8,200 | 33 | Chalk | Cash |
| SG | 2 | Dyson Daniels | ATL at CHI | $7,500 | 30 | Popular | GPP |
| SG | 3 | Darryn Peterson | UTAH at HOU | $6,300 | 35 | Popular | GPP |
| SF | 1 | Franz Wagner | ORL vs MIL | $8,900 | 35 | Chalk | Cash |
| SF | 2 | Kevin Durant | HOU vs UTAH | $7,200 | 33 | Popular | Cash |
| SF | 3 | Yaxel Lendeborg | GS at SA | $8,000 | 32 | Mid | GPP |
| PF | 1 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | MIA vs CLE | $11,700 | 34 | Mid | GPP |
| PF | 2 | Jalen Johnson | ATL at CHI | $9,100 | 33 | Chalk | Cash |
| PF | 3 | Cameron Boozer | MEM at NO | $7,500 | 31 | Popular | GPP |
| C | 1 | Victor Wembanyama | SA vs GS | $12,600 | 27 | Popular | GPP |
| C | 2 | Alperen Sengun | HOU vs UTAH | $9,400 | 35 | Popular | GPP |
| C | 3 | Karl-Anthony Towns | NY at IND | $8,400 | 30 | Popular | Cash |
Min is projected minutes. Field is how popular the player should be: Chalk, Popular, Mid or Low.
The FanDuel slate runs later and picks up San Antonio against Golden State, so Wembanyama and Lendeborg show up there and not on DraftKings. Franz Wagner is chalk on FanDuel but only mid owned on DraftKings, which makes DraftKings the better place to play him.
Every projection lives on today's NBA DFS projections, and you can build around these in the free NBA lineup optimizer.
Before Lock
- Norman Powell (shoulder): He's questionable and missed Chicago's last two games. If he sits, Josh Giddey ($7,900) and Tre Jones ($4,600) pick up his minutes, and Giddey gets more of the ball.
- Jalen Suggs (knee): If he plays, Orlando's guard minutes stay as projected. If he sits, Franz Wagner ($9,500) goes from 33.0 to 38.3 minutes and Desmond Bane ($7,400) from 31.7 to 35.9.
- Kingston Flemings (back): If he sits, Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($6,900) and Dyson Daniels ($6,600) pick up his minutes in the fastest game on the slate.
- Late swap: Utah at Houston tips last at 8:30 PM ET, so keep a swap ready in case Houston's injury news changes late.
Final Thoughts
The cash build leans on two starting jobs that opened up today. Tyson and Stewart are both expected to start for under $4,300 in close games, and that salary pays for Buzelis in the fastest game on the slate and Mitchell in the tightest spread. The risk is real: Tyson's scoring has been thin, Stewart carries foul trouble risk, and Mitchell played only 23 minutes on Monday.
In tournaments, Giannis is the pivot, because the field is crowding Cleveland's side of that game and leaving Miami's alone. Giddey is the second way off the popular cash build, and Meleek Thomas at $4,500 is the cheap play that helps pay for both.
More slates in the NBA DFS articles archive.
NBA DFS FAQ
What is late swap in NBA DFS?
Late swap lets you change players in your lineup until their own game tips, even after the slate has locked. That matters when a questionable player is ruled out after the early games start. Tonight Utah at Houston tips last at 8:30 PM ET, so you can still move off a Houston player if the news changes.
What is a GPP pivot in NBA DFS?
A GPP pivot is a player at a similar price or role to a popular pick, chosen because far fewer people will play him. If the popular player has a bad night and your pivot hits, you jump past most of the field. Tonight Giannis is my pivot, since the field is loading up on Cleveland and skipping the Miami side of the same close game.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN NBA tools: today's NBA DFS projections, the free NBA lineup optimizer, the NBA injury report for DFS, the NBA rotations and minutes tracker, and NBA pace stats.