Daniss Jenkins has played 32, 36 and 42 minutes in Detroit's last three games, and he's still $5,700 on DraftKings. That makes him the first name on most Saturday NBA DFS cash builds for DraftKings and FanDuel, next to Cade Cunningham in a close game at Miami. My tournament money goes to Brooklyn at Memphis, a coin flip the field is mostly ignoring on a five game night.
At a Glance
- Cash core: Cade Cunningham, Daniss Jenkins, Kevin Huerter, Cameron Johnson
- Best GPP pivot: Cooper Flagg ($10,200), low owned in a game with a 2.5 point spread
- Best cheap play: Zach Edey ($4,700), a big ceiling at a punt price
- Check before lock: Evan Mobley (questionable, toe), Jarrett Allen and Jaylon Tyson move if he sits
- Late swap: Brooklyn at Memphis, Chicago at Minnesota and Detroit at Miami, all tip at 8:00 PM ET
Slate Overview
Switch tabs for tonight's injuries and how last night's picks did.
| Game | Tip (ET) | Spread | Moneyline | Total | Away Total | Home Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN at NO | 7:00 PM | DEN -12.5 | DEN -670 / NO +483 | 235.5 | DEN 124.0 | NO 111.5 |
| DAL at CLE | 7:30 PM | DAL -2.5 | DAL -142 / CLE +120 | 231.5 | DAL 117.0 | CLE 114.5 |
| BKN at MEM | 8:00 PM | MEM -2.5 | BKN +125 / MEM -148 | 228.5 | BKN 113.0 | MEM 115.5 |
| CHI at MIN | 8:00 PM | MIN -15.5 | CHI +640 / MIN -970 | 234.5 | CHI 109.5 | MIN 125.0 |
| DET at MIA | 8:00 PM | DET -3.5 | DET -184 / MIA +154 | 229.5 | DET 116.5 | MIA 113.0 |
| Impact | Player | Status | Role | Who benefits (minutes with to without) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Caleb Wilson (CHI F) | Out, hand | 30.7 MIN, 18.9/6.2/1.9 | Matas Buzelis ($5,900) 26.5 MPG |
| 7 | Evan Mobley (CLE C) | Questionable, toe | 32.1 MIN, 16.9/7.3/3.6 | Jarrett Allen ($5,600) 25.8 MPG; Thomas Bryant ($4,000) 13.0 MPG |
| 7 | Trey Murphy III (NO F) | Out, knees | 32.8 MIN, 15.6/4.8/3.6 | Herbert Jones ($4,400) 21.0 to 29.5; Saddiq Bey ($6,100) 26.7 to 29.3 |
| 7 | Dejounte Murray (NO G) | Out, ankle | 31.4 MIN, 13.4/4.6/4.4 | Herbert Jones ($4,400) 21.1 to 29.3; Jeremiah Fears ($7,000) 27.6 to 33.0 |
| 6 | Norman Powell (CHI G) | Questionable, back | 29.1 MIN, 20.8/2.8/1.7 | Josh Giddey ($7,700) 28.7 MPG; Tre Jones ($4,600) 18.4 MPG |
| 6 | Jalen Smith (CHI F) | Questionable, finger | 24.6 MIN, 13.0/7.8/2.0 | Matas Buzelis ($5,900) 26.5 MPG; Patrick Williams ($4,000) 24.3 MPG |
| 6 | Pelle Larsson (MIA G) | Out (doubtful), illness | 29.5 MIN, 11.4/3.5/3.5 | Davion Mitchell ($7,000) 36.0 MPG; Klay Thompson ($5,400) 24.7 MPG |
| - | Jalen Duren (DET C) | Out | - | See Detroit at Miami |
| Call | Player | Salary | Minutes | DK Pts | Pts per $1K | Bar (Hit / Solid) | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash core | Donovan Mitchell | $8,100 | 33 | 41.50 | 5.1x | 6.25x / 4.75x | Solid |
| Cash core | Matas Buzelis | $5,800 | 29 | 30.00 | 5.2x | 6.5x / 4.75x | Solid |
| Cash core | Isaiah Stewart | $3,900 | 20 | 25.75 | 6.6x | 7.5x / 5.25x | Solid |
| Cash core | Jaylon Tyson | $4,200 | 30 | 25.25 | 6.0x | 6.5x / 4.75x | Solid |
| GPP pivot | Josh Giddey | $7,900 | 39 | 58.50 | 7.4x | 6x / 4.75x | Hit |
| GPP pivot | Giannis Antetokounmpo | $11,500 | 31 | 51.75 | 4.5x | 5.75x / 4.5x | Solid |
| Value play | Meleek Thomas | $4,500 | 18 | 19.50 | 4.3x | 6.5x / 4.75x | Miss |
| Avoid | Onyeka Okongwu | $6,500 | 35 | 34.00 | 5.2x | 6x / 4.75x | Wrong call |
| Avoid | Herbert Jones | $4,500 | 32 | 19.00 | 4.2x | 6.5x / 4.75x | Right call |
Green is the best scoring spot on the slate, yellow is the middle and red is the weakest. A green spread means a close game.
Three of the five games sit within 3.5 points, so most starters should play a full fourth quarter, and the two big totals both come with double digit spreads.
Josh Giddey was the hit last night with a 15/10/14 line in 39 minutes. The miss was Meleek Thomas, who played only 18 minutes as a value play. The whole cash core was Solid, but none of the four cleared the Hit bar for his price. Season record: Cash core: 55 of 87 Hit or Solid for their salary (23 Hits), 5.4x per $1K against a 5.0x slate average. GPP pivots: 32 of 53 Hit or Solid for their salary (11 Hits), 5.0x per $1K against a 5.0x slate average. Avoids: 19 of 41 right, 5.1x per $1K against a 5.0x slate average. Each pick is graded against the bar for its salary, because a star is paid for his base points: a $10K+ player is Solid at 4.5x per $1K, a player under $4K needs 5.25x. The Bar column shows the Hit and Solid marks for each price. Full results are on the NBA DFS results page.
Full injury report, updated all day: NBA injury report for DFS
Games to Target
Detroit at Miami: 229.5 total, DET -3.5
Cash game. Miami ranks 3rd in pace and Detroit 21st, and Miami is on the second night of a back-to-back after playing Cleveland on Friday. Out: Duren, Larsson. Questionable: None.
- Cade Cunningham ($9,800): He dropped 52/5/11 on Washington on Thursday, though that took 48 minutes and overtime. He's averaging about 34 minutes a night, and Detroit runs its offense through him. He's the safest big salary on the board. I love him here.
- Daniss Jenkins ($5,700): He's scored 31, 22 and 21 over his last three and started the last two. The 42 minutes on Thursday came in overtime, so expect something closer to 32 or 36 tonight. That's still plenty at this price. He's the chalk and he should be.
- Kevin Huerter ($4,200): He comes off the bench, but he's played 33 and 35 minutes in two of his last three games, including a 24/5/5 night against the Lakers. The bench role is the worry. At this salary I'll take that risk.
- Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,500): He's scored 29, 30 and 37 in his last three, all in 31 to 34 minutes. Friday's game was the first half of a back-to-back, and very few people will pay this salary for him again tonight. I'd keep him to tournaments.
- Davion Mitchell ($7,000): He's playing 38 to 43 minutes every night and had 17 assists against Cleveland on Friday. Pelle Larsson is out again, and Mitchell is first in line for his minutes. I like him a good bit at low ownership.
- Paul Reed ($6,200): He played 38 minutes on Thursday, but he's also one of the most foul-prone bigs on the slate. Miami gets to the line plenty, and that makes his minutes shaky. I'd pass.
Matchups to target: Cade Cunningham, Daniss Jenkins, Kevin Huerter, Davion Mitchell
Matchups to avoid: Paul Reed
Dallas at Cleveland: 231.5 total, DAL -2.5
Cash game. Dallas ranks 6th in pace and Cleveland 18th. Cleveland is on a back-to-back after Friday's game against Miami, and the spread is the tightest on the slate. Out: Merrill. Questionable: Mobley.
- Cooper Flagg ($10,200): He had 43/10/6 against Indiana in 39 minutes, then only 12 points in 27 minutes at Minnesota. A close game fixes the minutes problem, and he's barely owned at this price. I love him for tournaments.
- Kyrie Irving ($7,800): Kyrie is streaky. Over his last three he's scored 10, 35 and 21. Dallas has the highest team total in this game at 117.0, so his ceiling is there. He's a fine pivot off the Detroit guards.
- Donovan Mitchell ($8,100): He scored 25 with seven assists in 33 minutes against Miami on Friday, and he's been between 23 and 37 points in four of his last five. Cleveland playing on no rest is the only knock. He's solid.
- Jaylon Tyson ($4,100): He started on Friday with Mobley out and played 30 minutes for 16 points. If Mobley plays tonight, Tyson probably goes back to the bench, where he was getting 18 to 23 minutes (check the NBA rotations and minutes tracker before you lock him in). He's a great play if Mobley sits and a fine one if he doesn't.
- Jarrett Allen ($5,600): He's played 32 minutes in each of his last two games and pulled 14 boards against New York. His number assumes Mobley plays, so he jumps if Mobley sits. Wait on that news.
Matchups to target: Cooper Flagg, Kyrie Irving, Jaylon Tyson
Matchups to avoid: None
Brooklyn at Memphis: 228.5 total, MEM -2.5
GPP game. Memphis ranks 5th in pace on the NBA pace stats board and Brooklyn 22nd. It has the lowest total on the slate, but the line is a coin flip and the field is spending its money elsewhere. Out: Pippen. Questionable: Post.
- Michael Porter Jr. ($7,600): He's made three or more threes in each of his last five and scored at least 18 in all of them. He's averaged about 34 minutes in that run. I like him a lot here.
- Ty Jerome ($8,200): He's scored 17, 22 and 27 over his last three, all in 29 to 32 minutes, and almost nobody is paying this salary for him. Memphis played New Orleans last night, so tired legs are the risk. He's my favorite pivot in this game.
- Cameron Boozer ($8,000): He played only 25 minutes against New Orleans on Friday after 31 to 33 in the four before it. A tight game should push his minutes back up. He's solid, just not cheap.
- Zach Edey ($4,700): He's listed probable after sitting Friday. He plays only 19 to 25 minutes, but he has a 13 rebound game in his last five and the ceiling is much bigger than the salary. Foul trouble is always the risk with him. I like him as a GPP punt.
- Julius Randle ($7,900): He's averaged about 32 minutes over his last five, but he's one of the most foul-prone starters tonight. I'd rather pay up for Porter.
Matchups to target: Michael Porter Jr., Ty Jerome, Zach Edey
Matchups to avoid: Julius Randle
Game to fade: Chicago at Minnesota. Minnesota is a 15.5 point favorite, and Chicago is on a back-to-back without Caleb Wilson. The pace is the fastest on the slate, but blowout risk could cut starters' minutes on both sides.
Player Props
These are tonight's top player props from our Monte Carlo prop simulation, priced against the DraftKings line. Switch tabs to see how last night's picks did.
| Player | Prop | Odds | Our Number | Model | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PJ Washington (DAL vs CLE) | Under 1.5 Threes | +137 | 1.6 | 43.3% | 39.6% | +3.7% |
| Jerami Grant (MEM vs BKN) | Over 1.5 Threes | +117 | 2.0 | 47.2% | 43.1% | +4.1% |
| Ausar Thompson (DET vs MIA) | Over 7.5 Rebounds | +112 | 8.3 | 48.2% | 44.2% | +4.0% |
| Saddiq Bey (NO vs DEN) | Over 2.5 Assists | +135 | 3.1 | 45.8% | 39.9% | +5.9% |
| Julius Randle (BKN vs MEM) | Under 4.5 Assists | +110 | 4.1 | 49.8% | 44.6% | +5.2% |
| Player | Prop | Odds | Actual | Result | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domantas Sabonis | Under 5.5 Assists | +117 | 5 | Win | +2.7 |
| Myles Turner | Under 1.5 Threes | -107 | 4 | Loss | +9.2 |
| Brayden Burries | Under 3.5 Assists | -162 | 3 | Win | +10.3 |
| Brook Lopez | Under 5.5 Rebounds | -120 | 7 | Loss | +1.4 |
| Franz Wagner | Under 7.5 Assists | -134 | 12 | Loss | +1.6 |
Last night went 2-3: Myles Turner hit four threes and Franz Wagner had 12 assists, both well past our numbers, even though the closing line moved our way on all five.
- PJ Washington Under 1.5 Threes: He's made two or more threes in six of his last eight, so this one runs against his recent form, and the sim is betting on a quiet shooting night at plus money.
- Jerami Grant Over 1.5 Threes: He's made at least two threes in six straight games, playing 20 to 26 minutes off the bench.
- Ausar Thompson Over 7.5 Rebounds: With Duren out, he's cleared this in five of his last eight, including 17 against Philadelphia.
- Saddiq Bey Over 2.5 Assists: Dejounte Murray and Trey Murphy III are both out, and Bey has three or more assists in four of his last six.
- Julius Randle Under 4.5 Assists: He stayed under this in five of his last eight, and it fits the foul trouble worry in his note above.
Season record on these props: 58-54, +3.5 units at one unit each. Closing line value: +2.7 points of win probability on average, and the closing price moved our way on 74 of 107 picks.
Our Number is the simulation's average for that stat. Model and Market are the chance the bet wins, with the market's vig removed. CLV is how many points of win probability the DraftKings closing line moved toward our side after we posted the pick.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Top Plays by Position
| Pos | Rank | Player | Matchup | Salary | Min | Field | Play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | 1 | Cade Cunningham | DET at MIA | $9,800 | 35 | Chalk | Cash |
| PG | 2 | Jamal Murray | DEN at NO | $8,500 | 34 | Popular | Cash |
| PG | 3 | LaMelo Ball | MIN vs CHI | $8,400 | 28 | Popular | GPP |
| SG | 1 | Donovan Mitchell | CLE vs DAL | $8,100 | 33 | Popular | Cash |
| SG | 2 | Norman Powell | CHI at MIN | $6,000 | 29 | Popular | GPP |
| SG | 3 | Cedric Coward | MEM vs BKN | $6,000 | 26 | Mid | GPP |
| SF | 1 | Cooper Flagg | DAL at CLE | $10,200 | 34 | Low | GPP |
| SF | 2 | Michael Porter Jr. | BKN at MEM | $7,600 | 33 | Popular | GPP |
| SF | 3 | Jaden McDaniels | MIN vs CHI | $7,000 | 32 | Popular | Cash |
| PF | 1 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | MIA vs DET | $11,500 | 33 | Mid | GPP |
| PF | 2 | Cameron Boozer | MEM vs BKN | $8,000 | 31 | Popular | GPP |
| PF | 3 | Julius Randle | BKN at MEM | $7,900 | 32 | Mid | GPP |
| C | 1 | Nikola Jokic | DEN at NO | $11,700 | 35 | Mid | GPP |
| C | 2 | Bam Adebayo | MIA vs DET | $8,300 | 34 | Mid | GPP |
| C | 3 | Jarrett Allen | CLE vs DAL | $5,600 | 26 | Popular | Cash |
| Pos | Rank | Player | Matchup | Salary | Min | Field | Play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | 1 | Cade Cunningham | DET at MIA | $10,100 | 35 | Chalk | GPP |
| PG | 2 | Jamal Murray | DEN at NO | $8,700 | 34 | Chalk | GPP |
| PG | 3 | LaMelo Ball | MIN vs CHI | $8,000 | 27 | Popular | GPP |
| SG | 1 | Donovan Mitchell | CLE vs DAL | $8,100 | 33 | Popular | GPP |
| SG | 2 | Ausar Thompson | DET at MIA | $6,400 | 29 | Chalk | Cash |
| SG | 3 | Cedric Coward | MEM vs BKN | $5,800 | 26 | Mid | GPP |
| SF | 1 | Cooper Flagg | DAL at CLE | $10,000 | 34 | Popular | GPP |
| SF | 2 | Michael Porter | BKN at MEM | $7,100 | 33 | Popular | GPP |
| SF | 3 | Saddiq Bey | NO vs DEN | $5,700 | 35 | Chalk | Cash |
| PF | 1 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | MIA vs DET | $11,500 | 33 | Popular | GPP |
| PF | 2 | Cameron Boozer | MEM vs BKN | $7,500 | 30 | Mid | GPP |
| PF | 3 | Zion Williamson | NO vs DEN | $7,300 | 33 | Popular | GPP |
| C | 1 | Nikola Jokic | DEN at NO | $12,000 | 35 | Chalk | Cash |
| C | 2 | Bam Adebayo | MIA vs DET | $7,900 | 34 | Popular | GPP |
| C | 3 | Rudy Gobert | MIN vs CHI | $6,000 | 27 | Mid | GPP |
Min is projected minutes. Field is how popular the player should be: Chalk, Popular, Mid or Low.
The biggest split is Jokic, who is chalk on FanDuel and only middling on DraftKings, so the DraftKings build is where he's a real leverage play. FanDuel also ranks Ausar Thompson and Saddiq Bey higher and tags both as cash plays there, while DraftKings puts Jarrett Allen in the top three centers.
Every projection lives on today's NBA DFS projections, and you can build around these in the free NBA lineup optimizer.
Before Lock
- Evan Mobley (toe): If he plays, Jarrett Allen should stay around 26 minutes and Jaylon Tyson goes back to the bench. If he sits, Allen ($5,600) is back near the 32 minutes he played on Friday, and Tyson ($4,100) should start again after playing 30 minutes on Friday.
- Norman Powell (back): He's a top two DraftKings shooting guard tonight at $6,000. If he sits, Josh Giddey ($7,700) and Tre Jones ($4,600) get the extra backcourt touches, and Cedric Coward ($6,000) is the same-price swap.
- Jalen Smith (finger): He left Friday's game with the injury. If he sits, Matas Buzelis ($5,900) and Patrick Williams ($4,000) pick up frontcourt minutes in a game I'm fading anyway.
- Late swap: Brooklyn at Memphis, Chicago at Minnesota and Detroit at Miami all tip at 8:00 PM ET. Mobley's status matters before the 7:30 PM tip in Cleveland, and Chicago's news before 8:00.
Final Thoughts
Cade and Jenkins are the backbone, and the bet is that Detroit's guards keep their huge minutes in a close game against a tired Miami team. Huerter and Cameron Johnson save the salary for that, and Johnson has played 29 to 31 minutes in each of his last three. The risk I accept is Huerter's bench minutes and Johnson playing in a 12.5 point spread game where Denver could cruise.
In tournaments, pivot to Cooper Flagg in the tight Dallas game and pair him with Ty Jerome or Michael Porter Jr. from the game the field is skipping. Zach Edey at $4,700 is the cheap swing that can pay off a big salary.
More slates in the NBA DFS articles archive.
NBA DFS FAQ
What is a cash game core in NBA DFS?
A cash core is the group of players you lock into almost every cash lineup because they have safe minutes and a good price. Tonight that means Detroit's guards, who are playing big minutes in a close game. You build the rest of the lineup around them instead of chasing ceilings.
Why does pace matter in NBA DFS?
More possessions mean more shots, rebounds and assists for everyone on the floor. Chicago at Minnesota should be the fastest game tonight, but the 15.5 point spread could cut starters' minutes. Pace helps most when the game should also stay close.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN NBA tools: today's NBA DFS projections, the free NBA lineup optimizer, the NBA injury report for DFS, the NBA rotations and minutes tracker, and NBA pace stats.