Detroit is still without a suspended Dylan Larkin, and the Red Wings have to kill penalties in Tampa tonight with a unit that ranks 23rd in expected goals allowed. Our first stack is the Tampa Bay top power play unit (TBL PP1), and a confirmed Andrei Vasilevskiy goes in net behind it. Edmonton and Minnesota fill the other two stack spots, and on a twelve-game Saturday we also pivot off the chalk Utah power play in tournaments.
Last Night
Dylan Garand won with 27 saves and allowed one goal, good for 21.4 DK points. NYR PP1 scored 68.8 DK points, first of the four PP1 units on the slate. Both value plays hit again: Brayden McNabb scored 9.7 at $3,500 and Brett Howden 11.8 at $3,200. Since Oct. 29, our cash goalie is 12-3, the main stack has hit 10 of 16 times, our value plays 14 of 31, our blocks picks 6 of 16 and our props 6-4.
Slate Overview
Lock is 7:00 PM ET, when eight games drop the puck. Switch tabs for the goalies, the injuries and the line matchup edges.
| Game | Total | Favorite | Implied goals | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD @ WSH | 6.5 | NJD -134 | NJD 3.40, WSH 3.10 | none |
| MIN @ BOS | 5.5 | MIN -120 | MIN 2.95, BOS 2.83 | MIN PP 7th vs BOS kill 25th |
| PHI @ CBJ | 5.5 | CBJ -134 | CBJ 2.93, PHI 2.66 | PHI on two days of rest |
| OTT @ PIT | 6.5 | OTT -126 | OTT 3.29, PIT 3.09 | PIT on two days of rest |
| FLA @ STL | 5.5 | FLA -122 | FLA 2.98, STL 2.83 | FLA PP 2nd vs STL kill 8th |
| DET @ TBL | 6.5 | TBL -220 | TBL 3.58, DET 2.63 | TBL third game in four nights |
| EDM @ TOR | 6.5 | EDM -156 | EDM 3.63, TOR 3.12 | EDM PP 3rd vs TOR kill 21st |
| COL @ MTL | 6.5 | MTL -120 | MTL 3.23, COL 3.10 | MacKinnon and Makar day-to-day |
| BUF @ DAL | 6.5 | DAL -137 | DAL 3.27, BUF 2.96 | BUF third game in four nights, DAL PP 1st vs BUF kill 24th |
| SJS @ UTA | 6.5 | UTA -194 | UTA 3.54, SJS 2.75 | UTA third game in four nights, SJS kill 31st |
| CGY @ LAK | 5.5 | LAK -176 | LAK 3.15, CGY 2.52 | CGY on two days of rest |
| NYI @ ANA | 6.5 | ANA -115 | ANA 3.40, NYI 3.32 | NYI PP 27th, ANA on two days of rest |
| Goalie | Status | Win chance | Opp. goals | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy (TBL) | Confirmed | 65.8% | 2.63 | $8,500 |
| Karel Vejmelka (UTA) | Expected | 63.2% | 2.75 | $8,400 |
| Darcy Kuemper (LAK) | Expected | 61.1% | 2.52 | $8,300 |
| Devon Levi (EDM) | Expected | 58.4% | 3.12 | $8,200 |
| Jake Oettinger (DAL) | Expected | 55.3% | 2.96 | $8,100 |
| Connor Hellebuyck (NJD) | Confirmed | 54.8% | 3.10 | $7,900 |
| Jet Greaves (CBJ) | Expected | 54.8% | 2.66 | $8,100 |
| Samuel Ersson (OTT) | Expected | 53.3% | 3.09 | $8,000 |
| Jacob Markstrom (FLA) | Expected | 52.6% | 2.83 | $7,900 |
| Jakub Dobes (MTL) | Confirmed | 52.2% | 3.10 | $7,800 |
| Jesper Wallstedt (MIN) | Expected | 52.2% | 2.83 | $8,000 |
| Lukas Dostal (ANA) | Expected | 51.2% | 3.32 | $7,800 |
| Ilya Sorokin (NYI) | Expected | 48.8% | 3.40 | $7,600 |
| Jeremy Swayman (BOS) | Confirmed | 47.8% | 2.95 | $7,400 |
| Mackenzie Blackwood (COL) | Expected | 47.8% | 3.23 | $7,600 |
| Joel Hofer (STL) | Expected | 47.4% | 2.98 | $7,500 |
| Sergei Murashov (PIT) | Confirmed | 46.7% | 3.29 | $7,400 |
| Logan Thompson (WSH) | Expected | 45.2% | 3.40 | $7,500 |
| Dan Vladar (PHI) | Expected | 45.2% | 2.93 | $7,300 |
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (BUF) | Expected | 44.7% | 3.27 | $7,300 |
| Anthony Stolarz (TOR) | Expected | 41.6% | 3.63 | $7,200 |
| Dustin Wolf (CGY) | Expected | 38.9% | 3.15 | $7,100 |
| Yaroslav Askarov (SJS) | Expected | 36.8% | 3.54 | $7,000 |
| Daniil Tarasov (DET) | Confirmed | 34.2% | 3.58 | $6,900 |
| Player (team, pos) | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Guenther (UTA, RW) | Injured reserve | 9 | Clayton Keller, Vincent Trocheck, Barrett Hayton |
| Dylan Larkin (DET, C) | Injured reserve (suspension) | 9 | Alex DeBrincat, Viktor Arvidsson, Lucas Raymond |
| Nathan MacKinnon (COL, C) | Day-to-day | 8 | Martin Necas, Nazem Kadri |
| Logan Cooley (UTA, C) | Out | 8 | Clayton Keller, Vincent Trocheck, Barrett Hayton |
| Miro Heiskanen (DAL, D) | Out | 8 | Tyler Myers, Nils Lundkvist, Esa Lindell |
| Cale Makar (COL, D) | Day-to-day | 7 | Sam Malinski, Brett Kulak, Devon Toews |
| Brayden Point (TBL, C) | Injured reserve | 7 | Zemgus Girgensons, Ilya Mikheyev, Nikita Kucherov |
| Joel Eriksson Ek (MIN, C) | Day-to-day | 6 | Michael McCarron, Matt Boldy, Kirill Kaprizov |
| Line | Players | Edge | Main opponent | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL F1 | Hagel, Guentzel, Kucherov | +14.2 | DET F1 (43% of 5v5 time) | Full line, 54 min |
| EDM F1 | McDavid, Draisaitl, Podkolzin | +11.8 | TOR F1 (47% of 5v5 time) | Full line, 267 min |
| UTA F2 | But, Hayton, Yamamoto | +18.7 | SJS F1 (39% of 5v5 time) | Hayton and Yamamoto, 263 min |
| Player | Pair | PP | Blocks | 3+ chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esa Lindell (DAL, $3,600) | D1 | PP1 | 2.5 | 46% |
| Martin Fehervary (WSH, $3,100) | D2 | none | 2.4 | 44% |
The best special teams spot of the night is in Dallas, where the top power play in expected goals meets a Buffalo kill that ranks 24th on the Sabres' third game in four nights. A line edge is the share of 5v5 expected goals a line should win against the lines it will see most, minus 50; we use it as a tiebreaker. For the full grids, see team matchups, the injury report and line matchups.
Starting Goalies
Andrei Vasilevskiy (TBL, $8,500), cash and GPP
Vasilevskiy is confirmed after he was the first goalie off the ice at the morning skate. Detroit ranks 17th in 5v5 expected goals, and its forwards get our TOUGH tag, which means they rate well below the Tampa defense they face. He should make about 22 or 23 saves, and his 7.5% shutout chance is the best of any goalie who wins more than 55% of the time. Tampa plays its third game in four nights, and the team confirmed him anyway. Every starter is on the starting goalies page.
Stacks to Target
Each header shows the three-player core we would build around and what that core costs. Switch tabs for the stack summary and our top plays at each spot.
| Stack | Core | Core salary | Big night (full unit) | Field | Contest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL PP1 | Kucherov, Hagel, Carlson | $19,900 | about 107 DK points | Popular | Cash and GPP |
| EDM PP1 | McDavid, Draisaitl, Bouchard | $26,100 | about 103 DK points | Popular | Small field GPP |
| MIN PP1 | Kaprizov, Boldy, Hughes | $23,500 | about 85 DK points | Less popular | Large field GPP |
| Player | Pos | Salary | Role | Use |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel (TBL) | C | $6,900 | F1, PP1 | Cash |
| Macklin Celebrini (SJS) | C | $9,000 | F1, PP1 | GPP |
| Zemgus Girgensons (TBL) | C | $2,700 | F2 | Value |
| Michael McCarron (MIN) | C | $3,100 | F2 | Value |
| Clayton Keller (UTA) | W | $6,600 | F1, PP1 | Cash |
| Cutter Gauthier (ANA) | W | $8,300 | F2, PP1 | GPP |
| Mikhail Sergachev (UTA) | D | $5,500 | D1, PP1 | Cash |
| Zach Werenski (CBJ) | D | $7,700 | D1, PP1 | GPP |
| Andrei Vasilevskiy (TBL) | G | $8,500 | Confirmed | Cash and GPP |
| Darcy Kuemper (LAK) | G | $8,300 | Expected | GPP pivot |
TBL PP1: Nikita Kucherov, Brandon Hagel, John Carlson ($19,900 for the core)
Daniil Tarasov is confirmed for Detroit. The Tampa top line wins 56.1% of the 5v5 shot attempts when it is on the ice, and it draws the Detroit top line more than any other unit. Tampa's power play ranks 13th in expected goals and meets a Detroit kill that ranks 23rd. Tampa plays its third game in four nights. We take that as a small knock and stay on the stack. Jake Guentzel ($6,900) and Charle-Edouard D'Astous ($3,800) finish the unit, and all five fit under the cap with any goalie on the slate. This is our cash core and our main tournament stack.
EDM PP1: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard ($26,100 for the core)
Anthony Stolarz is expected for Toronto, not yet confirmed. The McDavid and Draisaitl line wins 56.5% of the 5v5 shot attempts, and the Edmonton forwards and defensemen both get our SMASH tag, which means they rate well above the Toronto units they face. The Oilers power play ranks 3rd in expected goals against a Toronto kill that ranks 21st, and Edmonton comes in on two days of rest. Zach Hyman ($5,800) and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($5,500) play on the second line but stay on PP1. The full five costs $37,400 and does not fit with any goalie on the slate, so build around the three-man core. We like it in small field GPPs.
MIN PP1: Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, Quinn Hughes ($23,500 for the core, contrarian)
Jeremy Swayman is confirmed for Boston. The Kaprizov line wins 53.8% of the 5v5 shot attempts, though its center, Joel Eriksson Ek, is a game-time call. Minnesota's power play ranks 7th in expected goals and meets a Boston kill that ranks 25th. Ryan Hartman ($3,200) plays on the fourth line but runs PP1 with Maxim Shabanov ($3,600), and the full unit fits with any goalie. Far fewer people will stack Minnesota, which makes it our large field stack. All the line combinations are on the lines page.
How to Build It
For cash, the Tampa core plus Vasilevskiy costs $28,400 and leaves $21,600 for five spots, $4,320 each. In large fields, you can cut the core to Kucherov and Hagel and pair them with Kuemper; that costs $23,400 and leaves $26,600 for six skaters, about $4,430 each.
For a 4-3-1 build, add Guentzel to the Tampa core. With Vasilevskiy that costs $35,300 and leaves $14,700 for four spots, $3,675 each, so the three-man Utah value stack at $10,200 still leaves $4,500 for one skater from a third team. The 3-3-2 build for single entry and 3-max starts from the Tampa core and Vasilevskiy at $4,320 a spot. A three-man Minnesota PP1 piece of Boldy and the two cheap PP1 forwards costs $14,900 and leaves $6,700 for two skaters, $3,350 each. DraftKings needs skaters from at least three teams, so those last two come from a third team, and we keep them off Detroit.
Value Stack
UTA F2: Barrett Hayton, Kailer Yamamoto, Daniil But ($10,200 for the unit)
This line has the biggest edge in the Line Edges tab, and it should see the San Jose top line most at 5v5. Hayton also runs PP1, and with Dylan Guenther and Logan Cooley out he gets more of the work.
Chalk and Pivots
Chalk stack: UTA PP1. Pivot: LAK PP1 ($28,000). Utah plays its third game in four nights, and far fewer people will go to Los Angeles, whose top line has a +10.6 edge against the Calgary lines it will see most.
Chalk goalie: Andrei Vasilevskiy ($8,500). Pivot: Darcy Kuemper ($8,300). We play the chalk in net, but Kuemper has the third best win chance on the slate and pairs with the Los Angeles pivot. He is expected to start, not yet confirmed; if Los Angeles turns to its backup, switch to Jake Oettinger ($8,100).
Fades
Matthew Schaefer ($7,400). He is one of the most popular defensemen on the slate, and most of his price comes from his PP1 role. The Islanders power play ranks 27th in expected goals, so that role is worth less than the field thinks.
Skaters
Centers
Jake Guentzel ($6,900): cash. He centers the Tampa top line between Kucherov and Hagel, runs PP1 and should play about 21 minutes. He fills the center spot without leaving the Tampa build.
Macklin Celebrini ($9,000): GPP. San Jose leans on him for about 22 minutes on the top line and PP1, and he should get three or four shots. Utah's kill ranks 26th, and few people will pay $9,000 for a Shark.
Wingers
Clayton Keller ($6,600): cash. With Dylan Guenther and Logan Cooley out, Keller carries the Utah top line and PP1 for about 22 minutes. He should get about three shots, and San Jose's kill ranks 31st.
Cutter Gauthier ($8,300): GPP. Gauthier plays on the Anaheim second line but stays on PP1, and he has about a 36% chance at five or more shots. The Islanders kill ranks 30th, and Anaheim plays in the late window.
Defensemen
Mikhail Sergachev ($5,500): cash. Sergachev plays on the Utah top pair and runs PP1, and he should play about 26 minutes. With that much ice time, he gives you a steady floor in shots and blocks.
Zach Werenski ($7,700): GPP. Columbus puts him on the top pair and PP1 for about 25 minutes, and he should get about three shots. The Columbus defensemen get our SMASH tag against Philadelphia, and far fewer people will pay up for him.
Value Plays
Zemgus Girgensons (TBL C, $2,700): With Brayden Point on injured reserve, Girgensons centers the Tampa second line and should play about 17 minutes. That line has a +7.1 edge against the Detroit lines it will see most.
Michael McCarron (MIN C, $3,100): McCarron centers the Minnesota second line and gets more work if Joel Eriksson Ek cannot go. That line has a +5.6 edge against Boston, and it scores with our Minnesota stack.
Before Lock
- Six goalies are confirmed: Vasilevskiy, Swayman, Dobes, Hellebuyck, Murashov and Tarasov. Kuemper is expected, not confirmed; if Los Angeles turns to its backup, move to Oettinger.
- Tampa, Buffalo and Utah play their third game in four nights. No team on the slate is on a back-to-back.
- Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar are day-to-day for Colorado, Anthony Cirelli for Tampa and Nick Schmaltz for Utah. Joel Eriksson Ek is a game-time call for Minnesota, and McCarron gains if he sits.
- Eight games start at 7:00 PM ET, BUF @ DAL at 8:00, SJS @ UTA at 9:00, and CGY @ LAK and NYI @ ANA at 10:00. Put Gauthier in UTIL so you can still swap him. Kuemper, Wolf, Dostal and Sorokin are not confirmed for the late games.
Final Thoughts
Our cash core is Vasilevskiy with Kucherov, Hagel and Carlson for $28,400, which leaves $4,320 a spot. In GPPs, we pair the Tampa core with an Edmonton or Minnesota PP1 piece, run Kuemper with LAK PP1 as the pivot build, and leave Matthew Schaefer to the field. Full numbers for every skater are on the projections page.
NHL DFS FAQ
What is a PP1 stack in NHL DFS?
A PP1 stack is the five players on a team's first power play unit, usually three or four forwards and one or two defensemen. When that unit scores, most of the players on it get points, so their scores rise together. Tonight our top one is Tampa's, against a Detroit kill that ranks 23rd.
How does a back-to-back change NHL DFS picks?
A team on the second night of a back-to-back often starts its backup goalie and can look tired late, so we downgrade its stacks a little and wait for goalie news. No team plays on a back-to-back tonight, but Tampa, Buffalo and Utah play their third game in four nights, a milder version of the same thing. Tampa has confirmed Vasilevskiy, so you know who plays in net.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the BankrollSZN NHL tools: today's NHL DFS projections, the NHL lineup optimizer, NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks, today's NHL starting goalies, and NHL odds and player props.