Games to Target
1. Utah Jazz at Portland Trail Blazers | Total: 236.5 | 10:00 PM ET
This is the top game on the slate and it is not close. Portland is projected for 125.5 points alone, giving this matchup the highest combined total of the night. The Jazz are devastated by injuries with Jaren Jackson Jr., Walker Kessler, Lauri Markkanen, Jusuf Nurkic, and Keyonte George all out. Utah has almost no functional frontcourt, and Portland should exploit that relentlessly. Both teams bleed transition points and play up-tempo, which is the exact environment you want to be in. The Blazers blew out Utah earlier in the year with Donovan Clingan posting a 23/18/7 line, and this game has a similar feel. Start your lineup construction here and stack Blazers heavily.
2. New Orleans Pelicans at Houston Rockets | Total: 226.5 | 8:00 PM ET
The added wrinkle of Alperen Sengun (Questionable, back) makes this game even more volatile and interesting. Houston is projected for 117 points with a combined 226.5 total. The Pelicans have been playing their best offensive basketball of the season with Dejounte Murray back, and the Rockets have been inconsistent but explosive in the right spot. If Sengun misses the game, Amen Thompson becomes a legitimate triple-double candidate and the lineup construction on the Houston side shifts dramatically. The pace here is strong and both teams give up a significant amount in transition, creating a ceiling environment for primary options on each roster.
3. Cleveland Cavaliers at Dallas Mavericks | Total: 234.5 | 7:30 PM ET
The Mavs are playing the back end of a back-to-back without Kyrie Irving (out for the season), Dereck Lively II (out for the season), and almost certainly Daniel Gafford resting. Cleveland is projected for 123.5 points and the total sits at 234.5. Without a functional interior defender, the Mavs are wide open for Evan Mobley, James Harden, and Donovan Mitchell to do damage all night. The Cavaliers should lead big early and coast, which limits some upside on minutes, but the matchup advantages are undeniable. Mobley in particular gets the most favorable big man matchup on the entire slate.
4. Memphis Grizzlies at Detroit Pistons | Total: 232.5 | 7:30 PM ET
Memphis is arguably the worst paint defense in the league right now and the Pistons are among the best at attacking the interior. Both teams are on a back-to-back, but the structural mismatch heavily favors Detroit. The Grizzlies are missing Ja Morant, Zach Edey, Brandon Clarke, Santi Aldama, Scotty Pippen Jr., and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Jalen Duren and Cade Cunningham get favorable matchups, though Cade resting on the B2B is a real possibility to monitor. Pistons bigs and Cade if active are the primary targets from this game.
Games to Fade
The Phoenix Suns at Toronto Raptors game (7:30 PM ET, total 218.6) is the least appealing environment on the slate. Phoenix is on a back-to-back with international travel, and the combined total is the lowest among the primary games tonight. Both teams have been inconsistent offensively and the pace figures to drag. Unless a significant injury update reshapes the matchup, this game should largely be avoided in cash lineups.
Injuries to Watch
OUT Tonight
Ja Morant (MEM) - Out, Left Elbow UCL Sprain
Ty Jerome is the lead guard and primary ball handler for Memphis in Morant's absence. Jerome is carrying heavy usage and a large assist burden in this role. Note that Jerome is also listed as Questionable tonight with a calf issue, which would cascade further down the rotation. If Jerome also misses the game, Javon Small would step into a starting PG role and see a major usage spike from a very low salary.
Brandon Clarke (MEM) - Out, Right Calf Strain (4-6 Weeks)
Clarke's absence further depletes an already thin Memphis frontcourt. Prosper absorbs additional forward minutes and the Grizzlies will be undersized against Detroit's physical interior.
Ausar Thompson (DET) - Out, Right Ankle Sprain
Ron Holland II steps into an expanded forward role for the Pistons with Thompson sidelined. Holland has been logging 25-plus minutes in this role and offers strong upside at a low salary. He is one of the best injury replacement plays on tonight's slate.
Dillon Brooks (PHX) - Out, Broken Left Hand (Through Early April)
Grayson Allen (also Questionable tonight) and Ryan Dunn absorb the wing minutes and defensive responsibilities Brooks would have handled for Phoenix.
Mark Williams (PHX) - Out, Left Foot Soreness (2-3 Weeks)
Oso Ighodaro remains the starting center for Phoenix and will carry the primary interior load. Ighodaro is a viable tournament piece if he sees extended run.
Darius Garland (LAC) - Out, Injury Management
Garland sitting is a massive development for the Clippers. Without him, Kawhi Leonard's usage goes through the roof and Kris Dunn handles the primary PG duties. Bennedict Mathurin also sees a substantial bump in shot opportunities. This is arguably the most important out on the slate for lineup construction purposes.
John Collins (LAC) - Out, Neck Strain (At Least 1 Week)
Derrick Jones Jr. and Nicolas Batum handle the power forward rotation for Los Angeles in Collins' absence.
Stephen Curry (GS) - Out, Right Knee Soreness (Re-evaluated Late March)
Brandin Podziemski has stepped into a lead guard role for Golden State with Curry out. In his most recent appearance without Curry and potentially without Melton, Podziemski logged 15 drives and 17 potential assists in 27 minutes. He is the primary fantasy target from this game.
Moses Moody (GS) - Out, Right Wrist Sprain
Moody's absence further thins Golden State's wing depth and adds to Podziemski's elevated role as the focal point of the Warriors offense.
Lauri Markkanen (UTA) - Out, Right Hip Impingement (At Least 2 Weeks)
Ace Bailey and Cody Williams see expanded forward minutes in Markkanen's absence. Bailey has been one of the beneficiaries of this situation and is worth monitoring at his price point.
Keyonte George (UTA) - Out, Right Hamstring Strain
Isaiah Collier is the unquestioned lead guard for Utah tonight with George sidelined. Collier runs the point with heavy usage and will have a large role even in what is a tough matchup against Portland.
Jarrett Allen (CLE) - Out, Right Knee Tendonitis
Thomas Bryant absorbs backup center minutes behind Evan Mobley, who has seen elevated usage near the basket with Allen off the floor. Mobley's paint touches have trended up meaningfully in Allen's absence.
QUESTIONABLE - Monitor Before Lock
Alperen Sengun (HOU) - Questionable, Low Back Pain
This is the most consequential questionable tag on the entire slate. If Sengun is cleared, he gets a favorable matchup against New Orleans and his numbers against the Pelicans in his career (25/10/6) are excellent. If he is ruled out, Amen Thompson becomes a legitimate triple-double candidate as the offensive hub, Clint Capela steps into the starting lineup, and Kevin Durant takes on expanded halfcourt creation duties. This one Q tag reshapes multiple lineup decisions.
Scottie Barnes (TOR) - Questionable, Illness
Barnes' status is the most important Raptors question tonight. If he is active, Toronto's offense runs through him and the lineup is fully functional. If he sits, Brandon Ingram and RJ Barrett absorb major usage bumps and Jakob Poeltl sees more touches with the Raptors going through him heavily. Ingram and Barrett both become much more interesting GPP plays if Barnes is ruled out.
Karl-Anthony Towns (NYK) - Questionable, Bilateral Knee Soreness
If KAT is out, Mitchell Robinson steps in at center and becomes one of the best value plays on the slate against Indiana. Robinson's rebounding and interior touch upside in a soft matchup makes him a legitimate cash play if Towns sits. The Knicks may also choose to rest him given the margin in this game.
Josh Hart (NYK) - Questionable, Left Knee Soreness
Hart is already one of the most popular plays on the slate at his salary. If he is ruled out, Landry Shamet and Mikal Bridges absorb the perimeter minutes, though neither is as appealing given how inconsistently Bridges has played. Hart being active keeps the Knicks lineup simple and chalk-friendly.
Pascal Siakam (IND) - Questionable, Knee Injury
If Siakam sits, Jarace Walker is the primary power forward and sees a significant usage bump as one of Indiana's few reliable offensive options. Walker at his salary with an elevated role is a legitimate cash consideration if Siakam is ruled out.
De'Anthony Melton (GS) - Questionable, Left Adductor Soreness
If Melton misses it, Brandin Podziemski takes on even more handling duties and shot volume than he already has in his elevated role without Curry. His last game without Melton featured 15 drives and 17 potential assists, which is an extraordinary usage load for a player at his salary.
Grayson Allen (PHX) - Questionable, Right Knee Injury
If Allen sits, Ryan Dunn and Amir Coffey fill out the Phoenix wing rotation. Limited downstream impact given the game environment, but worth monitoring for those targeting Suns players.
Ty Jerome (MEM) - Questionable, Right Calf Injury
If Jerome cannot go, Javon Small steps into a starting PG role at a very low salary. Small would inherit the primary ball handler duties for an already depleted Memphis team and carries real upside in tournament lineups if Jerome is ruled out.
Santi Aldama (MEM) - Questionable, Right Knee Injury
If out, Olivier-Max Prosper handles even more frontcourt responsibilities. Limited impact on the broader slate given how shorthanded Memphis already is.
T.J. McConnell (IND) - Questionable, Right Hamstring Soreness
If inactive, Kam Jones picks up additional guard minutes off the bench for Indiana. Downstream impact is modest unless multiple Pacers guards are also out.
Aaron Nesmith (IND) - Questionable, Right Ankle Injury
If out, Ben Sheppard and Kobe Brown absorb the wing minutes. Monitor this in context with the broader Pacers injury situation tonight.
Caris LeVert (DET) - Questionable, Left Wrist Sprain
If LeVert is out, Marcus Sasser and Kevin Huerter see bump in shot volume and minutes. Both are already projected as useful low-salary plays tonight.
Players to Target
Cash Game Plays
These are players with strong projected scores relative to salary and high projected ownership. In cash games, you want players who are likely to hit their floor, and these names do exactly that. Chalk is chalk for a reason.
Donovan Mitchell, SG, CLE vs. DAL | $9,500
Mitchell is the safest cash game anchor on the main slate tonight. The Mavs are on a back-to-back without Irving or Lively and almost certainly without Gafford, meaning their interior and perimeter defense is completely compromised. Mitchell should be able to get to his spots all night with Naji Marshall as his primary defender and minimal help coming his way. His projection is elite for the salary and his ownership reflects how obvious the spot is. He belongs in every cash lineup.
Evan Mobley, PF/C, CLE vs. DAL | $8,200
Mobley is in one of the best big man matchups on the slate. With Gafford and Lively both likely absent, the Mavs interior defense is a disaster. Marvin Bagley is his matchup and the Mavs have been among the worst paint defenses in the league. Mobley has been logging near-full minutes with Jarrett Allen out and his paint touches have been increasing all month. This is a smash matchup at a very fair salary.
Amen Thompson, PG, HOU vs. NOP | $7,800
Thompson is a cash game cornerstone tonight regardless of the Sengun news, but his ceiling becomes enormous if Sengun is ruled out. He operates at the basket at an elite rate and the Pelicans do not have great rim protection. With or without Sengun, Thompson is generating the kind of rebounding and assist production that justifies his salary comfortably. He belongs in cash lineups at this price.
Alperen Sengun, C, HOU vs. NOP | $8,700
If Sengun is cleared, he is a near-lock in cash games. His career numbers against New Orleans (25/10/6) are outstanding and the Pelicans do not have elite post options to contain him. Their rebounding defense has also been soft, which gives Sengun additional opportunity for double-doubles. Confirm his status before lock but if he is active he is the safest center on the board tonight.
Ron Holland II, PF, DET vs. MEM | $3,800
Holland is one of the best value plays on the slate with Ausar Thompson out. He has stepped into an expanded wing role for Detroit and has been logging 25-plus minutes consistently. His salary has not caught up to his current opportunity and Memphis' gutted frontcourt is exactly the kind of matchup where a role player can go for 25-plus fantasy points. He is a must-roster value play in cash.
Marvin Bagley III, C, DAL vs. CLE | $4,400
Bagley is one of the cheapest starting centers on the main slate and has a genuine production path tonight. With Lively gone for the season, Bagley is the primary interior option for Dallas. Cleveland's defense is not dominant on the glass and Bagley can rack up rebounds at a high rate in this spot. The popular ownership reflects how obvious the value is, but the floor is real at this price.
GPP Tournament Plays
These are players with lower projected ownership but real ceiling upside relative to their salary. In tournaments, you need differentiation to win. These names give you both upside and a path to a unique lineup.
Jalen Brunson, PG, NYK vs. IND | $9,100
Brunson is one of the most underowned elite plays on the slate at under 11% projected ownership. The Pacers are 30th in halfcourt defense over their last eight games and completely overmatched at the guard position without Haliburton. If Nembhard also rests on the B2B as expected, Brunson will not face a credible defender all night. The blowout concern is the primary risk, but if the Knicks need him to carry this game, his ceiling is well past 50 fantasy points. Tournament lineups stacking the Knicks should start with Brunson.
Scottie Barnes, PF, TOR vs. PHX | $8,500
Barnes is one of the best GPP plays on the slate if he clears the illness tag. At only 5.5% projected ownership, he is dramatically underowned relative to what his ceiling looks like in this matchup. The Suns are on a back-to-back with international travel, their interior defense has been shaky without Mark Williams, and Barnes runs the Raptors offense when healthy. If he plays, this is a tournament-winning spot at an undervalued ownership level.
RJ Barrett, SF, TOR vs. PHX | $6,900
Barrett is significantly more interesting if Scottie Barnes sits, but he has real value either way. The Suns are on a B2B and struggling defensively since Williams went down. Barrett has been operating with a full role for Toronto and plays best when he can attack the basket in transition, which this matchup enables. At under 19% projected ownership in a good environment, he is an excellent GPP piece at a comfortable salary.
Jalen Green, SG/SF, PHX vs. TOR | $6,600
Green is a low-ownership tournament dart with a real path to a big game. With Dillon Brooks out and Grayson Allen questionable, Green is the primary wing scorer for Phoenix. He chucks at a high rate and the Raptors do not apply significant pressure on him. On a B2B the usage risk is real, but in a tournament lineup where you need variance, Green's 24% projected ceiling is interesting at this salary.
Dejounte Murray, PG, NOP vs. HOU | $7,200
Murray's projected ownership of 13.2% feels low given how dominant he has been since returning. He had 17 potential assists and elite touch time in his last outing against Toronto and the Rockets give up a significant amount in transition. At this salary with this role and this matchup, he is a strong tournament play that gives you real production without the chalk exposure of the Houston stars.
Brandin Podziemski, SG, GS vs. MIN | Other Slate
Podziemski is worth noting for those in Other slate contests. Without Curry and potentially without Melton, he has become the entire Warriors offense and his last performance without both featured a usage load that rivals any guard on the board tonight. Against a Wolves team that can be vulnerable on ball, his ceiling is enormous at near-zero ownership in the right contest.
Jakob Poeltl, C, TOR vs. PHX | $5,700
Poeltl is a GPP pivot if Scottie Barnes sits. With Barnes out, the Raptors lean even more heavily on Poeltl in the frontcourt and his matchup against Oso Ighodaro is outstanding. Phoenix has been getting beaten inside since Mark Williams went down. Even with Barnes active, Poeltl at this salary is a reasonable tournament piece, but his upside with Barnes out is where the real ceiling lives.
Final Thoughts
The Jazz at Blazers game should be your building block with Portland holding the highest implied total and Utah unable to compete with a functional frontcourt. The Cavaliers are in dream matchup territory against Dallas, and the Sengun questionable tag could reshape the entire Houston and New Orleans side of the ledger.
In cash, anchor on Mitchell and Mobley from Cleveland, Thompson from Houston, and Holland from Detroit as your value core. Bagley and Sengun round out the cheap and mid-range cash plays respectively.
In GPP, Brunson at under 11% owned is the most glaring oversight on the slate. Barnes at 5.5% is the highest-ceiling tournament play if he is active, and Murray gives you real production at a salary that feels at least a thousand dollars too low. Watch for Ty Jerome's final status closely, because if he sits, Javon Small at minimum price becomes one of the best tournament plays of the night.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.