Weather to Watch
Tonight's slate leans heavily on domes. Rogers Centre (TOR/MIN), Tropicana Field (NYY/TB), and American Family Field (MIL/WSH) are all covered stadiums, and those three games happen to include several of the highest-implied totals on the board. The outdoor venues are not showing anything concerning. No wind alerts, no precipitation risk, no late total movement to chase. Weather is a complete non-factor tonight. Build your optimal lineups and do not worry about it.
HR Calls
Aaron Judge (NYY) vs Steven Matz | Hitter: $6,400
[STANDARD MODEL]
Matchup does not get much cleaner than this. Judge draws Steven Matz, a lefthander with a fly ball rate north of 39 percent through his early starts, and Judge is one of the only hitters in baseball whose power profile actually deserves the hype. His barrel rate is above 24 percent. He makes hard contact on nearly half his batted balls. His HR-per-fly-ball rate is elite regardless of opponent. Right-handed batter versus a southpaw, Tropicana Field, and a pitcher who gives up fly balls at this rate? The model loves it, and so do I. He is chalky at $6,400, but the matchup earns it.
Brett Baty (NYM) vs J.T. Ginn | Hitter: $4,100
[SLEEPER MODEL]
Baty earns the top sleeper score on the entire slate. Ginn has posted a rough ERA through two starts, but the peripheral story is actually interesting in both directions. His batted ball outcomes have been terrible, with runs scoring at a rate well above what his strikeout and walk numbers would predict. Meanwhile, Baty's expected ISO suggests more pop than his current season line shows. That gap is exactly what the sleeper model targets: a hitter whose underlying power is being suppressed by contact luck, facing a pitcher whose ERA is inflated beyond what the peripherals justify. At $4,100, the value is obvious.
Byron Buxton (MIN) vs Patrick Corbin | Hitter: $4,900
[STANDARD MODEL]
Buxton versus a lefthander at Rogers Centre is a matchup worth paying attention to. His barrel rate sits above 15 percent and his pull rate clears 45 percent, which is a combination that puts home runs on the table every time he gets into a fly ball count. He leads off for Minnesota, so the plate appearance volume is maxed out. Corbin has been hittable early in the year, the park plays extremely well for right-handed power, and Buxton's ownership is surprisingly low given his profile. He crosses into both cash and GPP builds tonight.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) vs Kumar Rocker | Hitter: $6,500
[HYBRID MODEL]
Ohtani leads the entire slate in hybrid score at 75.1, and the reasons are not subtle. His barrel rate is 23.9 percent and his HR-per-fly-ball rate is 31.8 percent, both among the best marks for any hitter on the board tonight. His expected ISO sits at .370, which is in a different zip code from almost everyone else in the field. He bats leadoff at Dodger Stadium, one of the friendliest parks in baseball for power, with a +0.3 weather adjustment on top. Rocker's ERA is inflated beyond what his peripherals justify, so he may not be as bad as the surface number looks, but the contact quality he has been allowing tells a different story. His barrel rate allowed sits above 11 percent and his xSLG allowed is .483, which means the hard contact is real regardless of the run-scoring luck. Ohtani is already in most LAD stacks, but his standalone HR upside at $6,500 makes him worth considering in any format tonight.
Stacks to Target
1. MILWAUKEE BREWERS vs Jake Irvin (R) | Implied Total: 5.43 | ROO Score: 7.5/10
The Brewers are the top stack on the slate and it starts with Jake Irvin. Irvin's ERA is at 8.00 and his LOB percentage is below 54 percent, which means he is converting over 46 percent of baserunners into actual runs. His HR rate is climbing toward two per nine innings and his batted ball profile is almost entirely fly balls. The FIP and xFIP do pull back from the ERA a bit, but he is not pitching well. He is just not quite as historically awful as the surface numbers suggest. More importantly for stack leverage: the Washington bullpen behind him has posted the worst combination of ERA and xFIP among any pen on tonight's board. If the game gets to the seventh inning, Milwaukee has a scoring opportunity no matter who they are facing.
The left-handed bats in the Milwaukee lineup are where the platoon advantage concentrates. The team wRC+ for lefties against right-handed pitching is north of 130 this season. Brice Turang leads off and is priced at $5,100 in a spot where very few people will roster him. Christian Yelich hits third and carries middle-order pop. Jake Bauers bats cleanup. William Contreras in the two-hole gives you catcher exposure without paying premium price. American Family Field is a dome, so the run environment is consistent regardless of outdoor conditions.
Core pieces: Brice Turang (LHH, leadoff, $5,100), William Contreras (C, $4,900), Christian Yelich (DH, $5,500), Jake Bauers (1B, $3,800)
2. LOS ANGELES DODGERS vs Kumar Rocker (R) | Implied Total: 5.70 | ROO Score: 6.8/10
The Dodgers carry the highest implied total on the entire slate at 5.70. Rocker's FIP is well below his ERA at this point in the season, which means he has been somewhat fortunate on batted ball outcomes. His xFIP of 4.11 is significantly higher than his FIP of 2.58, which tells you the home run suppression is unlikely to hold. He has not allowed one yet through five innings, but the park factor at Dodger Stadium is one of the highest in baseball and the quality of contact being generated against him is real. At some point the luck runs out.
The Dodger lineup is dangerous from both sides. Right-handed hitters carry a team wRC+ above 150 against right-handed pitching this season. Shohei Ohtani leads off and needs no additional context. Kyle Tucker hits second from the left side. The ownership issue is real though. Glasnow is going to be chalky at the top, Ohtani will be everywhere, and the game total will attract attention. The contrarian angles are in the middle and bottom of the order. Andy Pages at $4,300 batting seventh and Alex Freeland at $3,000 batting ninth both score well against Rocker given the park factor, and neither will be heavily rostered. Those two spots are where the LAD build gets interesting.
Core pieces: Shohei Ohtani (LHH, leadoff, $6,500), Kyle Tucker (LHH, $6,000), Andy Pages (RHH, $4,300), Alex Freeland (switch, $3,000)
3. NEW YORK METS vs J.T. Ginn (R) | Implied Total: 4.60 | ROO Score: 6.1/10
The Mets come in third and the primary driver is Ginn's platoon split. He has been awful against right-handed hitters, with a wOBA and ERA versus RHH that rank among the worst on the slate from any starting pitcher. Against left-handed bats he has been fine. Against right-handed bats, the numbers look like a lineup pirate. The New York lineup has enough right-handed bats to exploit that. Bo Bichette hits second. Luis Robert bats fourth. Brett Baty from the left side in the five-hole was already covered in the HR section, but he fits here too because Ginn's peripheral profile paints him as someone who could allow a multi-run inning without throwing a terrible pitch.
The implied total at 4.60 is the lowest of the three stacks and will keep ownership low. Francisco Lindor leads off. Clay Holmes at $9,000 will pull some cash from this game on the pitching side, but the batting stack is four or five players deep for tournament builds.
Core pieces: Francisco Lindor (SS, $5,300), Bo Bichette (RHH, $4,100), Luis Robert (RHH, $5,000), Brett Baty (LHH, $4,100)
Pitchers
The pitching options tonight run from legitimate top-of-rotation ace to deep budget tournament dart. Glasnow leads the salary at $9,800 and will draw the highest ownership by a significant margin, but there is real production available at every price tier. The slate as a whole is not overloaded with strikeout upside, so the arms that do post high K rates are more valuable than usual tonight.
Tyler Glasnow (LAD) vs TEX | $9,800 | GPP
Glasnow's early-season numbers are almost absurdly good. His FIP is near 1.43. His K rate is over 31 percent with a strikeout rate against right-handed hitters above 46 percent. Texas implies under three runs tonight, one of the lowest totals on the board. The only issue is that he will be broadly owned and carrying him in a large-field GPP creates more exposure risk than upside gain. He is a legitimate cash anchor but a difficult tournament play when one-third of the field has him. Keep his GPP exposure modest.
Connelly Early (BOS) vs STL | $7,700 | CASH
Early has been one of the more useful surprises this season. His ERA and FIP are nearly identical and both sit below 3.00, which tells you the results are real rather than lucky. K rate at 25 percent is enough for salary pricing. St. Louis implies under 3.30 runs tonight. The thing to watch before lock: Early is left-handed, and St. Louis has a strong wRC+ for right-handed hitters against southpaws this year. If the STL lineup is stacked with its right-handed regulars, there is a platoon concern worth accounting for. Still, he projects as the best salary-to-production value among pitchers tonight under 20 percent ownership, which makes him a cash priority unless the lineup check raises a flag.
Bryce Elder (ATL) vs CLE | $8,000 | CASH
Elder has not allowed a run through 13 innings and his underlying numbers say it is not smoke and mirrors. His FIP and xFIP are both legitimately strong. His ground ball rate near 55 percent does the work of suppressing the long ball even when he gives up contact. Cleveland implies under 3.80 runs tonight. Elder is sitting below six percent ownership despite those numbers, which makes him the clearest cash differentiator on the board. There is no reason this many lineups are avoiding him.
Kris Bubic (KC) vs CWS | $8,800 | GPP
Bubic has a real strikeout rate at 27 percent and draws one of the weakest offenses on the slate tonight. Chicago implies barely above three runs. His BABIP has been unsustainably low and his HR rate is elevated, so the ERA looks better than the underlying reality. The matchup compensates for that risk tonight. This is a GPP-only arm where the ceiling is a high-K outing against a lineup that strikes out frequently, at a salary that not many lineups will pay up for.
Davis Martin (CWS) vs KC | $6,700 | GPP
Martin is the lowest-ownership tournament arm worth targeting tonight. His ERA is under 2.50, his K rate is at 27 percent, and his splits versus right-handed hitters are extreme. He has been nearly untouchable against right-handers this year, and Kansas City's lineup has a right-handed lean. Around three percent ownership in the field means real leverage if he posts a quality start. The risk at $6,700 is real, but when Glasnow, Early, and Chad Patrick are absorbing the majority of pitching ownership, Martin is exactly the type of contrarian arm that wins tournaments.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
Worth flagging upfront: most pitchers on tonight's slate have fewer than 15 innings pitched this year. The regression reads below are real, but the sample sizes amplify the signal in both directions. Take them as directional context, not certainty.
Landen Roupp (SFG) - Positive Regression Candidate
Roupp is one of the best-performing pitchers on this slate and the ERA hides it. His FIP is near 1.40. His xFIP is near 1.88. He has not allowed a home run, his K rate is over 31 percent, and his ground ball rate clears 63 percent. The reason the ERA looks inflated is a LOB percentage below 42 percent, which means roughly 60 percent of the runners he puts on base eventually score. That number is unsustainable and will correct. For tonight, Roupp is not at a viable DFS salary. But if you are building a Baltimore batting stack, know that the ERA is misleading you. Roupp will pitch better as those runner-stranding numbers normalize, and the BAL stack has a tougher path than the 4.22 ERA advertises.
Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) - Negative Regression Candidate
Woods Richardson has an ERA of 2.31 that is almost entirely a product of luck. His LOB percentage is near 98 percent, meaning he has stranded practically every single baserunner he has allowed. That number does not exist in baseball for extended periods. His FIP and xFIP are both above 5.00 and his K rate is only 13 percent. He is not missing bats and he is not generating weak contact. He is just somehow not giving up runs yet. Do not roster him in cash games at $7,300. In tournaments, the risk of a blowup tonight is real. If you want Minnesota pitching exposure in a game against Toronto, there is no case for it.
Final Thoughts
Cash game construction tonight should run through two pitchers: Bryce Elder and Connelly Early are the clearest values at salary, and splitting them across your cash lineups keeps you from being correlated against either. On the hitting side, anchor the MIL mini-stack with Brice Turang and William Contreras. Add either Aaron Judge or Cal Raleigh as your premium power piece depending on salary constraints. The slate is clustered around 8 to 8.5 in totals outside of TOR/MIN and the LAD game, so floor is the priority tonight, not ceiling.
Biggest thing to monitor before lock: Milwaukee and Los Angeles lineup releases. Jackson Chourio ($5,100) does not have a confirmed batting order slot and moves into must-play territory for the MIL stack if he gets slotted into the middle of the order. Juan Soto ($5,800) is in the same spot for the Mets. Both are live game-breakers if confirmed. Do not finalize MIL or NYM lineups until those are in.
For GPP, the Boston stack against Dustin May is the most underplayed setup on the board. May's ERA is above 15.00 and while the LOB rate explains some of it, the contact damage is real. Roman Anthony ($5,100) is leading off and is being rostered by almost nobody despite legitimate upside. Pair him with Jarren Duran ($4,600) and Willson Contreras ($4,100) for a cheap BOS mini-stack that very few lineups will have. That kind of ownership leverage against a pitcher this bad is where GPPs get won.
The tournament winner tonight probably avoids stacking Glasnow and Ohtani together. The LAD game will dominate lineup construction field-wide, which means the upside comes from taking a step back on the chalk and attacking Boston, Milwaukee, or even the TOR/MIN total at Rogers Centre where the run environment is elite and ownership will be split between two good teams.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.