Happy Friday. A juicy 13-game main slate with four domes, two late games out West, and a pretty steep top of the pitching tier. Skenes and Gavin Williams anchor everything at the top, but I could argue a handful of mid-tier arms here are better points per dollar than either of those guys. The hitting side is headlined by the LAD spot at home against Jameson Taillon, which is pricing in over five and a half runs for a reason. My initial lean is to build around one of the elite stacks and one of the value arms, then pay up for one anchor bat at the top of a second stack.
Weather to Watch
Nothing on this slate crosses the thresholds where I actually adjust my build. Four domes on the docket (TOR, TEX, HOU, TB, MIL) wipe out any weather angle for those games, and most of the outdoor parks are in the neutral zone. A quick scan of anything that could nudge the model a few points in either direction.
Philadelphia at Atlanta | Truist Park | Clear, 81F | Wind: 7 mph SSW
Wind out to left field, warm night, low humidity. Nothing dramatic, but the ball should travel. If you were already leaning into Atlanta bats against Andrew Painter, this does not hurt.
Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City | Kauffman Stadium | Clear, 68F | Wind: 7 mph NE
Slight wind in, 68 at first pitch. Kauffman already plays as a pitcher park, and the breeze compounds it. Not a flashing red light, but I am not reaching for KC bats here.
Miami at San Francisco | Oracle Park | Clear, 55F | Wind: 13 mph WNW
Oracle is a pitcher park, full stop. Wind is technically "out" but the cold and the swirling-out pattern at Oracle rarely produces the kind of carry you see at Truist or Camden. I am treating this as neutral.
HR Calls
The models are pointing at three different kinds of spots tonight. A chalky anchor bat in the best park on the slate, a mid-tier bat flagged by sleeper for xISO and xFIP gaps, and a cheap, dome-based GPP swing. I will go one of each.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) $6,600 vs Jameson Taillon [STANDARD MODEL]
Taillon is carrying a 3.97 ERA early, but the underlying numbers are ugly: 6.06 FIP, 88% LOB, 2.38 HR per 9, and a 21% HR to fly ball rate to lefties. Ohtani is the lefty with the best barrel profile in the sport (23% barrel, 31% HR to fly ball), and Dodger Stadium rates as a plus park for lefty pull power. The standard model slaps a 73 on this spot, and I think the market hasn't quite caught up to how shaky Taillon's 22 innings actually look. It doesn't get much better than that for a leadoff anchor bat.
Pete Alonso (BAL) $4,900 vs Brayan Bello [SLEEPER MODEL]
The sleeper model is all over this one, and I get it. Bello is sporting a 6.75 ERA with a 5.77 FIP, but his xFIP is 5.01 and his WHIP is approaching 2.00. His splits vs righties show a 4.65 ERA with a 14% HR to fly ball allowed, and Alonso's xISO of .280 is nearly identical to his actual ISO. Camden plays as a plus park for righty power, and Alonso at $4,900 is the kind of price where he doesn't need to do much to pay off. I like him as a one-off in GPPs more than a full stack piece.
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) $4,400 vs Lance McCullers Jr. [STANDARD MODEL]
This one is the leverage play of the three. Stanton at $4,400 in a dome with a 21% barrel rate and a 43% pull rate is comical value, and McCullers has allowed a 9% HR to fly ball rate to righties with a 39% hard hit rate. Yes, the Houston park is not Camden or Dodger Stadium, but it rates slightly plus for righty pull power. At that salary, he doesn't need to do much to pay off, and the Yankees stack as a whole is in a plus matchup.
Stacks to Target
Not a ton of five-plus implied totals on this slate, so the top of the stacking board is a little condensed. The LAD spot is a clear tier-one, Atlanta is a strong second, and Seattle is my favorite leverage play of the three. If you want to get weird, CWS against Mikolas is also interesting, but their offense itself is not strong enough for me to prioritize it on a 13-game slate.
1. LAD vs Jameson Taillon (R) | Implied Total: 5.63 | ROO Score: 8.1/10
The Dodgers lead the slate in implied runs, and it is not really close. Taillon has a 2.09 gap between his FIP and ERA, an 88% LOB rate that screams regression, and a 2.38 HR per 9 through 22 innings. The vulnerability score on him is maxed out (9.2/10), and LAD's recent form (130 wRC+ over the last 30 days) makes this a cash game staple. Taillon has a real platoon problem: 6.54 ERA vs lefties vs 1.54 vs righties, with 21% HR to fly ball rate to lefties. That lines up perfectly with Ohtani, Freeman, Max Muncy, and Tucker all hitting from the left side. Will Smith is the righty exception and the best value piece of the group at $4,100. This will be a chalky stack, probably the chalkiest of the night, but I am not pivoting off it in cash. For GPPs, you can try 4-man with a mini-stack elsewhere, but the ceiling here is the ceiling of the slate.
Core pieces: Shohei Ohtani (L, DH), Kyle Tucker (L, OF), Freddie Freeman (L, 1B), Will Smith (R, C)
2. ATL vs Andrew Painter (R) | Implied Total: 5.09 | ROO Score: 7.2/10
Painter is a rookie with 13 innings of MLB work and a 5.40 ERA, and while his FIP is a respectable 3.07, the xFIP sits at 4.06 and the samples are tiny. The ROO model slaps a baseline 6.5 on him because of that lack of data, but the park weather score here is a perfect 10 (warm, wind out to left at Truist) and Atlanta's offense is humming at a 122 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Painter's splits show a lot more noise vs righties (7.94 ERA, .39 wOBA allowed vs R), which is a nice boost for Acuna, Riley, Olson (L, still plays), and Harris. The batting order is front-loaded and Acuna in the one hole is the leadoff anchor I keep coming back to. I am trusting the market a bit that Painter will be closer to ace stuff than his early numbers, but the park and weather tip this enough that I will stack it in GPPs for sure. Leverage angle: ownership will probably land a tier below LAD.
Core pieces: Ronald Acuna Jr. (R, OF), Matt Olson (L, 1B), Austin Riley (R, 3B), Michael Harris II (L, OF)
3. SEA vs Andre Pallante (R) | Implied Total: 4.73 | ROO Score: 6.7/10
Seattle is my favorite GPP stack of the night. Pallante has a 4.05 ERA but a 5.20 FIP, a 5.41 xFIP, and a 12% BB rate. He's a ground ball guy, but the K rate is under 6 per 9, which means the hitting team is constantly putting the ball in play. The Cardinals' bullpen behind him has a 7.27 ERA, the worst mark of any bullpen on this slate. That's the kind of structural fade you want in GPPs. Pallante's splits are basically even between lefties and righties in wOBA, but he coughs up more hard contact to lefties (51% hard hit rate vs L). That lines up with Josh Naylor, Luke Raley, and Dominic Canzone on the left side. Cal Raleigh is the switch-hitter power bat you build around at $4,900, and J.P. Crawford at $2,700 leading off is a terrific salary saver. Ownership here will be a full tier below LAD, and even a tier below Atlanta, which makes it a legit leverage play when you need to differentiate.
Core pieces: Cal Raleigh (S, C), Julio Rodriguez (R, OF), Josh Naylor (L, 1B), J.P. Crawford (L, SS)
Pitchers
Two aces at the top, then a cluster of mid-tier arms where I think there is real edge. I am probably leaving Skenes or Williams in almost every cash lineup, but the GPP value is in the 8-9K range.
Gavin Williams (CLE) vs TOR | $9,800 | CASH
Gavin leads the slate in engine projection and it is not a close call. His 2.12 ERA is built on a 35% K rate, a 94% LOB rate, and a .167 BABIP. All three of those are unsustainable, but the underlying talent is real (12 K per 9, 55% ground ball rate). Toronto is implied for 3.73 runs in a dome against a pitcher who has already racked up 26 strikeouts in 18 innings vs righties. At $9,800 he doesn't need a complete game to pay off, and he will return a top-five SP score regularly even with some regression built in. He comfortably leads all pitchers on this slate in strikeout ceiling. Cash lock.
Paul Skenes (PIT) vs MIL | $10,000 | CASH
At 10K, Skenes has the highest ownership you could ever want to fade. The issue is that Milwaukee is implied for just 3.16 runs, which is near the bottom of the slate. Skenes is sitting on a 3.27 ERA, a 3.47 FIP, and a 0.91 WHIP. He'll get every break against a Brewers lineup that has been running hot overall but has real swing-and-miss. If you think there's another arm with a reasonable shot of keeping up with him in scoring, it would make sense to pivot for GPPs, but he's the safest bet to take home top-SP honors tonight.
Freddy Peralta (NYM) vs COL | $8,800 | CASH
Colorado is implied for 2.52 runs, the lowest mark on the slate. Peralta is striking out 25% of hitters and holds a 1.09 WHIP. Even better for us, Colorado is slumping hard (82 wRC+ over the last 30). The one concern is a 9% walk rate and a .220 BABIP that will eventually turn on him, but one night against a team that cannot hit at home or on the road is the right spot to trust him. CitiField is a neutral park. Cash play, easier to stomach than Skenes at $1,200 less.
Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) vs ATH | $8,500 | GPP
Eovaldi's 5.06 ERA is a hair misleading. His xFIP sits at 3.33, his K rate is nearly 24%, and his BABIP is .354. That's the profile of a guy due for positive regression. Oakland is implied for just 3.55 runs, and he is in a dome, so the boom-bust profile goes a long way. The splits are a little shaky (4.41 ERA vs LHHs and a 39% HR to fly ball rate vs LHHs), but at $8,500 he has plenty of ceiling in GPPs.
Taj Bradley (MIN) vs TB | $9,000 | GPP
Bradley has been the story of April, sporting a 1.63 ERA, a 1.99 FIP, and 0 HR allowed through 28 innings. The xFIP of 3.53 is the flashing yellow light: he will start giving up homers eventually. But Tampa is implied for 3.98 runs in a dome, and Bradley is whiffing 28% of hitters. The ceiling is elite SP1 scores. I'd call his current run pretty unsustainable, but I'll take the shot for GPPs tonight.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
Sample sizes are still small in late April, but there are two arms toeing the rubber tonight where the early numbers are telling two completely different stories. These are the guys whose results are likely to shift, and we want to know which side of the regression trade to be on.
Lance McCullers Jr., Positive Regression Candidate
McCullers has a 6.20 ERA but a 3.99 FIP, a 3.99 xFIP, and a .308 BABIP. That is a textbook unlucky profile. His K rate sits at 24%, his hard hit rate is elevated at 39%, but the underlying stuff is playing. What that means for us: I am not going out of my way to stack Yankees against him, even though the salary-adjusted math on guys like Judge and Stanton still makes sense as individual plays. The ceiling is just a little less bankable than the ERA suggests.
Drew Rasmussen, Negative Regression Candidate
Rasmussen's 2.75 ERA is carried by a .128 BABIP, the lowest on the slate by a country mile. His 4.21 FIP is nearly 1.5 runs higher, and his HR per 9 already sits at 1.83. That's a profile that is going to correct hard once opposing contact finds some grass. The stacking implication: Minnesota at an implied 3.52 is the quiet, low-owned GPP spot of the night. The Twins will not be chalky because of that run total, but the regression math says the Rays' righty is closer to a 4-plus ERA than a 2. Worth a one-off bat pivot if you need leverage.
Final Thoughts
Cash foundation is straightforward tonight. Pair Gavin Williams with two or three LAD bats (Ohtani + Will Smith is the cleanest pair, Freeman if you need the salary) and fill the rest with mid-salary value. Peralta at $8,800 is the easiest pivot off Skenes if you need to save for two bats at the top.
The things I am watching between now and lock: any lineup change for Atlanta that moves Riley down, the wind reading at Oracle (it is at the edge of the "actually matters" range), and the Cubs confirming their top four against Sheehan. If Sheehan is still holding 20 K over 20 innings, he is another cash consideration at $8,200, but the Cubs are still a dangerous lineup and I'd probably hedge that one for GPPs only.
For GPP pivots: Stanton at $4,400 is the cheapest path to a 3-4 HR ceiling on the slate, Alonso at $4,900 has a real shot at multi-hit nights in Camden, and Kyle Schwarber at $5,700 stacking with Atlanta-side leverage gets you in the Truist environment from the visitor side against Grant Holmes, who has a 4.37 xFIP that hints at underlying softness. The Seattle stack is my favorite leverage pivot, and Cal Raleigh at $4,900 is the kind of guy you can fit into a lot of builds.
Final construction note: Skenes will be chalky, LAD will be chalky, Williams will be chalky. You are not going to out-leverage a cash game lineup by fading all three. Pick your spots. In GPPs, you can afford to fade one of the three big chalk pieces (I'd most likely fade the Dodgers stack for a SEA or ATL build), but fading more than one cuts too deep into your ceiling
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.