Weather to Watch
LAA at CLE | Progressive Field | Mostly Clear, 54F | Wind: 10 mph NNE
This is the wind-in game of the slate. The model has it at a -9.4% HR impact and a -5.4% runs impact, the kind of suppression that kills home run upside even when the matchup looks good on paper. Both lineups are at a discount today, and bat-flippy power plays in this park get downgraded across the board.
NYY at BAL | Oriole Park at Camden Yards | Clear, 67F | Wind: 10 mph NNW
A crosswind reading at Camden with a slight HR suppression of about 4%. Not enough to scare anyone off the highest road implied total on the slate, and worth knowing the wind isn't helping pull-side righty power here. Camden's park factor still does most of the work.
The other four games are domes or controlled environments and nothing else moves the needle.
HR Calls
Aaron Judge (NYY) $6,500 vs Brandon Young [STANDARD MODEL]
Judge is the headline call and he is the chalk for the right reasons. He has a 35.5% HR/FB rate with a 26.1% barrel rate and a 44.6% pull rate, hitting second behind a leadoff guy who has been getting on base. Brandon Young has a soft 4.35 ERA backed by a 5.17 xFIP and 1.31 HR/9, and his fly ball rate is up over 33%. Camden has a 112 park factor for right-handed power and Young is exactly the fly ball arm you target with a guy hitting balls 110 mph+ the other way. He is the highest owned hitter on the slate and he should be.
Casey Schmitt (SF) $3,500 vs Roki Sasaki [STANDARD MODEL]
Schmitt sits on top of the standard model at 80.4. He has a 16.1% barrel rate, a 48.9% pull rate, and a 13.5% HR/FB profile, hitting third for the Giants in Dodger Stadium with a 144 park factor for right-handed pull power. Sasaki is the inverse of an ace right now, running a 5.97 ERA with a 5.15 xFIP and a 2.51 HR/9. The right-handed bats in the SF lineup are seeing 0.444 wOBA against Sasaki this year. Salary at $3,500 with ownership under 2% is sleeper pricing on a player who leads the entire HR model.
Tyler O'Neill (BAL) $3,500 vs Ryan Weathers [SLEEPER MODEL]
Tyler O'Neill ties for the top sleeper score at 68.1. His xISO is .234 and his actual ISO has lagged it, a profile that says the power is closer than the box score. Weathers has a 3.03 ERA and a 2.95 xFIP that look similar, however his HR/9 is 1.40 on the season and 2.38 over the last 30 days, and his hr_fb rate against righties is up at 16.7%. O'Neill in the five-hole at Camden with a 112 RH park factor and ownership stuck under 5% is the GPP power lever in a 9-run game.
Stacks to Target
1. NYY vs Brandon Young (R) | Implied Total: 5.32 | ROO Score: 6.4/10
The Yankees have the highest road implied total on the slate and they are facing the most beat-up starter of the day. Young carries a 4.35 ERA, 5.17 xFIP, and 1.31 HR/9, and the platoon split shows lefties have crushed him with a 6.75 ERA and a 56% fly ball rate vs LHH. NYY is built for that side, with the team posting a 109 wRC+ and 0.182 ISO from the LHH_vs_RHP bucket and a 132 wRC+ from RHH_vs_RHP. Both sides can hurt Young. Park is the cherry on top: Camden plays as a 112 for RH power with crosswind doing only minor suppression. This stack will be heavily owned and that is fine, the leverage in a chalk stack comes from unique lineup construction. Ben Rice in particular sits on a 194 wRC+ and a .357 ISO vs RHP with ownership at 1.88%, which is the kind of pricing the market never gets right when a 4-hit ceiling night happens.
Core pieces: Aaron Judge (R, 2nd, $6,500) for the alpha, Ben Rice (L, 3rd, $6,000) as the lefty pull-side leverage piece, Cody Bellinger (L, 4th, $5,100), and Trent Grisham (L, 6th, $4,200) to cap a 4-stack on the cheap.
2. LAD vs Trevor McDonald (R) | Implied Total: 5.90 | ROO Score: 6.3/10
The Dodgers carry the highest implied total on the entire slate at 5.90 and they have a great park advantage with Dodger Stadium playing 122 for LH power and 144 for RH pull power based on the HR model's park factors. McDonald has 7 IP in the books in 2026 with one start. The splits sample is too small to lean on hard, and his last30 SP_overall is a 1.29 ERA on 7 IP that nobody believes given a 2.43 xFIP and a 0.07 BABIP that is unsustainable noise. The LAD lineup splits well both ways vs RHP with the LHH side at a 123 wRC+ and a 17.2% ISO, and the RHH side at a 117 wRC+ and 16.9% ISO. The eruption upside here is from a thin starter facing a top-three offense at home, not from a dome ceiling. Andy Pages stands out vs RHP at a 169 wRC+ and a 22.9% HR/FB, and Max Muncy at a 153 wRC+ and 20.6% HR/FB is the leverage piece in the seven hole.
Core pieces: Shohei Ohtani (L, 1st, $6,300), Mookie Betts (R, 2nd, $4,400), Freddie Freeman (L, 3rd, $4,800), and Max Muncy (L, 7th, $4,300) for a stack that prices in around mid-tier and pays off in any McDonald-blow-up scenario.
3. SEA vs Peter Lambert (R) | Implied Total: 5.05 | ROO Score: 6.0/10
This is the under-the-radar stack of the slate. Lambert has a 2.42 ERA and a 4.06 xFIP and the model knows it. The reverse-platoon read on Lambert is real: vs LHH he has a 0.230 wOBA over 60 batters faced, vs RHH he has a 6.75 ERA and a 0.318 wOBA over 33 batters faced. That is small-sample noise on the RHH side, however the Mariners' LHH side is where the value lives anyway. SEA hits to a 119 wRC+ and 18.4% ISO from LHH_vs_RHP with a 13.7% hr_fb rate. The lineup also matches the dome ceiling in Houston, where Daikin Park plays at a 118 park factor and weather is irrelevant. The starter vulnerability score is a 4.2, and the offense ceiling score is a 5.1, and the bullpen vulnerability score is 7.4, which gives you the back-end damage angle if Lambert grinds five innings.
Core pieces: Brendan Donovan (L, 1st, $3,600) is the priced-down leverage spot at a 201 wRC+ vs RHP, Cal Raleigh (S, 4th, $4,600) gives the RHH/LHH cross matchup, Luke Raley (L, 6th, $3,400) has a 147 wRC+ and 33.3% HR/FB vs RHP, and Josh Naylor (L, 3rd, $3,600) at 128 wRC+ vs RHP. The whole 4-stack prices in cheap.
Pitchers
The slate is top heavy at the pitcher position with Gausman at $9,000 and Kirby right behind at $8,700, then a steep drop into the $7K range where most of the GPP leverage lives. Nathan Eovaldi at $8,500 is the under-priced ace play in this group, and Trevor McDonald at $7,000 is the salary-relief value buy for cash builds.
Kevin Gausman (TOR) vs TB | $9,000 | CASH
Gausman in his home dome against a Rays offense that has been pedestrian all year is the safest cash play. He sits on a 3.09 ERA and a 3.48 xFIP with a 23.2% K rate, and Tampa carries a 91 wRC+ from LHH_vs_RHP and a 116 wRC+ from RHH_vs_RHP. The K upside is there for 6+ frames, and the win probability with TOR favored at -130 is a clean cash spot. The ownership will be sky high and that is fine.
Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) vs ARI | $8,500 | CASH
Eovaldi is the projected fpts leader in this group with a 20.0 engine projection. He is at home in a dome against an Arizona offense that has been below average across all four platoon splits this year. The ERA at 4.15 is misleading: his xFIP is 3.29 and his last30 ERA is a much cleaner 2.45 on 33 IP. The strikeouts vs RHH are at a 30% clip with a 0.258 wOBA against. Texas is the home favorite at -135 and this is the higher-K cash pivot off Gausman.
George Kirby (SEA) vs HOU | $8,700 | GPP
Kirby on the road in a dome against the Astros is the high-variance GPP play in the tier. His season ERA at 2.94 is below his 3.72 xFIP, and his HR/9 of 0.69 should drift back to league average soon. Kirby is much better vs LHH this year with a 1.59 ERA and 0.260 wOBA, and Houston is built RHH-heavy outside of Alvarez and a couple others. The K upside is real with 8+ a possibility, the bust risk is real if Yordan and one righty bat connect. Mid-ownership GPP play, pass for cash.
Ryan Weathers (NYY) vs BAL | $8,300 | GPP
Weathers at $8,300 with ownership stuck at 3.6% is the slate's highest-leverage GPP arm. His 3.03 ERA and 2.95 xFIP suggest the underlying skill matches the surface, his K rate is up at 28.5%, and Baltimore strikes out at a 24%+ clip from both sides vs LHP. The HR risk is real, his last30 HR/9 is 2.38 in a hitter park. If he avoids 2 HRs given up he wins the slate at single-digit ownership. Pure GPP play with real ceiling.
Trevor McDonald (SF) vs LAD | $7,000 | GPP
McDonald at $7,000 is the punt-tier GPP arm. He has 7 IP on the year and a 2.43 xFIP that the sample is too small to credit, and his last30 has him at a 0.29 WHIP and a 33% K rate. Dodgers' lefties are tough on him, so this is a tournament-only contrarian play that needs Dodger Stadium not to play its altitude tonight. Pivot off chalk if you want max leverage.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
The slate is still relatively early-season, so most starters are under or just past the 50 IP mark. Two stand out as legitimate regression candidates worth using or fading.
Brandon Young (BAL) - Negative Regression Candidate
Young's results say 4.35 ERA. His xFIP says 5.17 and his FIP says 4.81. He has a 54% LOB rate which is well below the 72% league average, so the ERA should drift closer to his peripherals once the strand rate normalizes. The bigger flag is the 1.31 HR/9 and the 46% fly ball rate vs LHH, which is a profile that gets worse not better at Camden. The takeaway: lefty Yankee bats are the regression target, not Young. Stack against him with confidence in cash and in GPPs.
Roki Sasaki (LAD) - Mixed Regression Candidate
Sasaki has a 5.97 ERA and a 5.15 xFIP across 28.2 IP, and a 2.51 HR/9 that is unsustainably high. His K rate at 19.4% is below his pedigree, and his BB rate at 11.2% has been the real culprit. The model is buying some bounce-back here on the K side, however the contact quality he is allowing (.444 wOBA from RHH this year) says he is still very hittable. The play: SF righties are the leverage point against him, not the lefties. This shows up in Casey Schmitt at the top of the standard model.
Final Thoughts
Cash builds today should anchor around Gausman or Eovaldi at the pitcher position and a Judge-Rice stack from the NYY top of the order. Aaron Judge is going to be 50%+ owned and the right play in cash is to roster him anyway. The 9-run total at Camden with Young on the bump is too clean to overthink, and pairing Judge with one or two of Bellinger, Goldschmidt, or Grisham gets the floor without paying the chalk premium twice.
Watch the wind in Cleveland before lock. The current read is a -9.4% HR impact with wind blowing in at 10 mph, which means LAA hitter chalk gets a downgrade beyond what salary suggests. If wind shifts, the model reads change and the Angels become a sneaky bring-back. Also keep an eye on whether SF's full lineup gets posted right away, because Schmitt and Heliot Ramos are both sitting on top of HR upside at sub-2% ownership and any late confirmation is free leverage.
For GPP leverage, the spots to be different are SEA against Lambert, SF righties against Sasaki, and the bottom of the LAD order if Pages and Muncy stay reasonably owned. The Yankee stack will be everywhere, so the construction that wins GPPs is one-off pieces like Ben Rice and Trent Grisham at 1-3% ownership rather than three high-end NYY pieces stacked together. The cheap stacks on this slate get the leverage, the expensive stacks get the floor, and the way to build is to use both styles in different lineups.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.