Weather to Watch
Heat is the headline. Almost every outdoor yard is sitting in the high 80s or hotter, and the warm air alone nudges a few of these games up a notch. Philadelphia is the one I keep circling back to.
Chicago White Sox at Philadelphia Phillies | Citizens Bank Park | Overcast, 93F | Wind: 14.5 mph WSW
Ninety-three degrees with a crosswind that still helps the ball carry to the gaps and over the wall. This is the launching pad on the board tonight, by a comfortable margin. If a ball is hit in the air here, I want a piece of it.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves | Truist Park | Overcast, 89F | Wind: 8.3 mph SW
Warm with a light breeze drifting out toward left-center. Nothing dramatic, but it plays up a tick rather than down. Fine power environment, just not the standout.
Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals | Busch Stadium | Partly Cloudy, 89F | Wind: 8.2 mph SSW
Another hot one with the air pushing gently to the outfield. Busch is not a bandbox, but 89 degrees gives the Cardinal bats a small assist they wouldn't get in April.
San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs | Wrigley Field | Clear, 73F | Wind: 6.8 mph NE
Wrigley is the exception. The wind's coming in off the lake, and a breeze blowing in here knocks fly balls down in a hurry. I'm downgrading power bats in this one and leaning into the arms.
Four roofs are in play today: Chase, Daikin, Rogers Centre, and loanDepot. The forecast is irrelevant in all of them, so judge those four on the park alone.
HR Calls
I went a different direction with each of these. What ties them together is opposing pitching that has been getting barreled.
Corbin Carroll (ARI) $5,600 vs Zack Littell
Carroll is the call I trust most here. Littell has been easy pickings for lefties, surrendering a 3.45 HR/9 with a 25% HR/FB and a slug north of .600 to left-handed hitters across the season. Carroll swings from that exact side, and Arizona owns the slate's highest team total at 5.54. The Chase roof takes weather out of the equation, but the platoon edge is lopsided enough to carry the bat on its own.
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) $6,200 vs Brandon Eisert
Yes, Eisert is a lefty, and yes, Schwarber swings from the left side too. I'm not worried about it. Eisert is a soft-tossing reliever stretched into a start with barely a dozen innings on the year, and Schwarber's raw power plays against anyone in a 93-degree Citizens Bank Park. When the slate's premier bat walks into its hottest home run park, I'll pay up and live with the matchup.
Kody Clemens (MIN) $3,500 vs Luinder Avila
The salary save. Avila cannot find the strike zone, running a walk rate north of 5.0 BB/9, and when he does catch the plate the left-handed bats have slugged .534 off him. Clemens is a lefty swinging third in a Twins lineup with a healthy implied total. At this price, the pop is close to free.
Stacks to Target
I built the stack menu around three starters who are wild, hittable, or both. For each one I'm leaning into the platoon side they struggle with most.
1. ARI vs Zack Littell (R) | Implied Total: 5.54 | ROO Score: 5.5/10
Arizona profiles as the cleanest stack on the slate, and it starts with how poorly Littell has thrown. A 5.09 ERA undersells it: his xFIP sits near 8, his K/9 has cratered to around 5, and he gives up homers in bunches. The damage skews hard toward lefties, who own a 3.45 HR/9 and a .605 slug against him, so the left-handed and switch bats are where I want exposure. Washington's relief corps has not been much better, posting a 4.87 ERA over the last month, so the innings after Littell exits stay live. Corbin Carroll and the lefty side are the engine here.
Core pieces: Corbin Carroll $5,600 (L), Ketel Marte $5,300 (S), Geraldo Perdomo $4,100 (S), Pavin Smith $2,400 (L), Gabriel Moreno $3,800 (R)
2. MIN vs Luinder Avila (R) | Implied Total: 5.06 | ROO Score: 5.3/10
Avila hands out free passes by the fistful. He has walked more than 13% of the hitters he has faced, and his xFIP is closer to 6 than 5. Minnesota's right-handed bats have mashed righties all year, running a wRC+ above 109 with one of the better HR/FB rates in the league, and the lefties get their own gift since Avila has surrendered a .534 slug to that side. Kansas City's bullpen ERA over the last 30 days is ugly even if the underlying marks are kinder, so leads aren't safe. Byron Buxton anchors it whenever he's in the lineup.
Core pieces: Byron Buxton $5,800 (R), Trevor Larnach $3,700 (L), Austin Martin $3,800 (R), Brooks Lee $3,600 (S), Kody Clemens $3,500 (L)
3. STL vs Nick Lodolo (L) | Implied Total: 5.39 | ROO Score: 5.1/10
Lodolo has made only five starts, so I'll hedge on the sample, but what's there is alarming. He is allowing a 2.32 HR/9 overall, and against right-handed hitters specifically it balloons to a 2.61 HR/9 with a 22% HR/FB and a .549 slug. St. Louis happens to be loaded with righties who punish lefties, carrying a wRC+ of 116 and a near-20% HR/FB rate from that side. Throw in 89-degree heat at Busch and a Cincinnati bullpen sporting a 6.35 ERA over the last month, and the runway is long. I want the right-handed bats, not the lefties Lodolo actually handles.
Core pieces: Jordan Walker $5,100 (R), Ivan Herrera $4,500 (R), Masyn Winn $3,400 (R), Nelson Velazquez $2,800 (R), Lars Nootbaar $3,400 (L)
Pitchers
Pitching runs deeper than the bats tonight, which doesn't happen often. There's a clean tier of cash arms before you ever get to the boom-or-bust ceiling plays.
Joe Ryan (MIN) vs KC | $9,800 | CASH
Ryan is my favorite cash arm on the board. He posts a K/9 north of 10, walks almost nobody, and draws a Kansas City lineup carrying one of the lowest implied totals on the slate. The strikeout floor is what makes him cash-viable: even on an off night he tends to rack up enough whiffs to clear value. Easy core piece.
Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) vs ATL | $9,300 | CASH
Ashcraft has quietly been excellent, a sub-3.00 ERA backed by a low-3.00s xFIP and a 9.82 K/9 against a tiny walk rate. Atlanta is a tougher lineup than the ones around it, so this is the riskier of my cash arms, but the underlying skills travel. I'm comfortable rostering him in safer builds.
Ben Brown (CHC) vs SF | $8,500 | CASH
I'll say upfront that Brown's 1.93 ERA isn't real, and I'll get to why below. None of that matters much tonight. He draws a punchless San Francisco lineup at a Wrigley with the breeze blowing straight in off the lake, which is about the most run-suppressed environment you can ask for. The strikeout upside at this salary is a gift.
Spencer Strider (ATL) vs PIT | $10,400 | GPP
Strider tops the pitcher salary list and, by the projected numbers, sits as the chalk. The strikeout ceiling is enormous, north of an 11 K/9. The problem is everything else: a walk rate pushing 5 BB/9 and homers allowed at a scary clip since he came back. I'm fine fading the field's favorite arm and using the savings elsewhere, though I get why people pay up for the ceiling.
Landen Roupp (SF) vs CHC | $8,800 | GPP
Roupp is a sneaky leverage arm. His 4.22 ERA looks ordinary, but the skills underneath are loud, and he gets the same wind-in Wrigley environment that helps Brown. There's real strikeout upside here at a salary the field will mostly skip. I'll get into the regression case for him next.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
It's still early enough that some of these surface numbers are riding luck in both directions. Two arms stand out, one due for better days and one due for worse.
Zack Littell (WSH), Negative Regression Candidate
Littell's 5.09 ERA already looks bad, and the underlying numbers say it should be worse. His xFIP is sitting close to 8 because he barely strikes anyone out, gives up loud contact at a 41.7% hard-hit clip, and a low BABIP that won't hold has been bailing him out. Arizona is the lineup positioned to push that number back toward reality, which is exactly why the stack above is my favorite on the slate.
Landen Roupp (SF), Positive Regression Candidate
Roupp is the opposite story. His ERA reads 4.22, but his FIP is in the high 2.00s and his xFIP is barely above 3, the gap driven by an inflated BABIP and a strand rate well below league average. That's a pitcher getting unlucky, not a pitcher getting hit. Pair the regression case with a Wrigley wind blowing in and a soft Giants matchup, and he's a strong tournament dart.
Final Thoughts
I'm building cash around the arms first. Joe Ryan is my safest bet on the mound, and if I want a second pitcher I'm happy with Ashcraft or Brown in that wind-suppressed Wrigley spot. From there I anchor the hitting with a couple of Arizona lefties against Littell, lean on a Cardinal righty like Jordan Walker, and use Kody Clemens or Pavin Smith to free up salary without giving away upside.
These daytime cards lock early, so the one thing I am watching is whether any of the confirmed lineups shuffle before first pitch. Nothing in the data points to a scratch right now, but Minnesota and Arizona are the two lineups I most want intact, so keep an eye on them as the cards firm up. The heat is the other variable, and it's working in our favor at almost every outdoor park except Wrigley.
For tournaments I'm happiest getting different. Schwarber in the best park on the board is a ceiling play I'll gladly roster, and a full St. Louis righty stack against Lodolo is the kind of build the field tends to underrate because of his small sample. If you want to bring it back, the Cardinals and Reds share a warm Busch Stadium, so a few Cincinnati bats on the other side is a reasonable way to capture a shootout. Mix your pitching, and don't be afraid to fade the priced-up Atlanta arm.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.