Weather to Watch
Monday brings seven games and a forecast with more say than usual. Two parks add carry tonight, one takes it away, and the strangest reading on the map comes from San Francisco of all places.
Houston at Washington | Nationals Park | Overcast, 91F | Wind: 7 mph ENE
It will be 91 degrees at first pitch in DC, and heat like that does more for the baseball than a modest breeze blowing in can undo. A stray shower chance sits in the forecast, more nuisance than threat.
New York Mets at Atlanta | Truist Park | Mostly Clear, 81F | Wind: 4 mph SW
A warm night with a light breeze drifting toward the seats. Mild help for hitters, nothing that changes a decision on its own.
Milwaukee at St. Louis | Busch Stadium | Mostly Clear, 88F | Wind: 7 mph NNE
The heat gives and the wind takes it right back. I am treating Busch as a neutral park tonight.
Arizona at San Diego | Petco Park | Clear, 72F | Wind: 10 mph NW
Cool coastal air and a 10 mph wind blowing in make Petco the one park working against hitters tonight. Power bets in this game need a discount to interest me.
Toronto at San Francisco | Oracle Park | Mostly Clear, 59F | Wind: 15 mph WNW
Oracle usually buries fly balls, but a 15 mph gust pointed out toward right-center improves carry tonight, and only the 59 degree air pushes the other way. I would not call it hitter-friendly, just less hostile than the park's reputation.
Colorado at Los Angeles | Dodger Stadium | Clear, 73F | Wind: 8 mph WSW
Clear, comfortable, and blowing out. Everything about Chavez Ravine cooperates with the biggest team total on the slate.
The only roof tonight is in Tampa, so the Yankees and Rays answer to the ballpark and nothing else.
HR Calls
Wood and Caglianone headlined the weekend calls, so today rotates to fresh names. Two of tonight's three run through the same starter, and I will explain why I could not talk myself out of the double.
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) $6,200 vs Miles Mikolas
Mikolas owns the lowest strikeout rate of any starter on this slate, right around 13%, and a pitcher who lets that much contact happen while giving up homers on nearly 20% of his fly balls is going to feed somebody. The somebody is usually the best hitter he faces. Alvarez has hammered righties to the tune of a .466 wOBA and a .330 ISO with 21 homers, over half his batted balls against them are hard-hit, and the 91 degree evening in Washington helps the ball travel. The breeze leans in a touch, but 7 mph is not rescuing Mikolas from this particular bat.
Hunter Goodman (COL) $5,700 vs Eric Lauer
Goodman has grown into one of the more legitimate power sources in the league, 27 homers already, and the Rockies uniform keeps the price of attention low. Lauer is his kind of matchup: a fly-ball lefty whose xFIP sits north of 8, with more than half of what he allows going airborne and better than two homers surrendered per nine. Goodman reaches lefties for a .386 wOBA and a .281 ISO, and yes, he also strikes out in nearly 40% of those trips, so the whiff risk is priced into this pick. With the wind blowing out at Dodger Stadium, I will take it anyway.
Cam Smith (HOU) $2,900 vs Miles Mikolas
Another Astro against the same arm, and I am at peace with that. Righties have reached Mikolas for a .243 ISO with 2.4 HR/9, which is among the softest right-on-right profiles any starter brings tonight, so the matchup is not reserved for the stars. Smith has been putting hard contact on nearly half of everything he hits off righties, eight homers in a part-time role, and he bats sixth at $2,900. At that price a single swing pays for itself several times over.
Stacks to Target
The board and the totals point at the same two games tonight, so the top stacks are not a secret. When the best spots are also the obvious ones, I differentiate through the back half of the order instead of forcing a worse team.
1. LAD vs Kyle Freeland (L) | Implied Total: 6.97 | ROO Score: 6.7/10 | Cash
Los Angeles carries a 6.97 implied total, the largest on the slate by more than a run and a half, and the matchup explains it. Freeland has allowed a .415 wOBA and a .274 ISO to right-handed bats with 2.3 HR/9, so Pages, Betts, and Teoscar Hernandez hold the sharpest edge, while Ohtani and Freeman are simply too good to sit against anyone. Whatever Freeland leaves behind lands on a Colorado bullpen running an xFIP in the mid 4s to high 5s depending on which arms surface. The field will be heavy on this stack and the field is right. This is my cash foundation, and in tournaments I would lean Pages at $5,300 and Rushing at $4,000 over the two most rostered stars to bend the build somewhere different.
Core pieces: Shohei Ohtani $6,500 (L), Andy Pages $5,300 (R), Freddie Freeman $6,000 (L), Mookie Betts $4,800 (R), Teoscar Hernandez $4,200 (R)
2. HOU vs Miles Mikolas (R) | Implied Total: 4.78 | ROO Score: 5.4/10 | GPP
The bad news first: this offense has been the streakiest of my three, and a 4.78 implied total is good rather than great. The good news covers everything else. Mikolas misses almost no bats and gives up damage to both sides of the plate. Behind him sits a dreadful Washington bullpen, an xFIP near 6 with two homers per nine, so the scoring window stays open all night. Houston also comes cheap after Alvarez: Paredes at $4,000, Walker at $3,700, Diaz at $3,300, and Smith at $2,900 let you pair this stack with an $11,000 arm and barely feel it. I want this group in tournaments, where the thin salary and the 91 degree air can turn one crooked inning into a winning score.
Core pieces: Yordan Alvarez $6,200 (L), Isaac Paredes $4,000 (R), Christian Walker $3,700 (R), Yainer Diaz $3,300 (R), Cam Smith $2,900 (R)
3. WSH vs Mike Burrows (R) | Implied Total: 5.22 | ROO Score: 5.1/10 | Cash
Washington keeps earning its way into this section. Burrows has been run over by left-handed hitters, a .414 wOBA against with a .252 ISO, 2.4 HR/9, a strikeout rate of only 15%, and a walk handed to better than one in ten of them, extra baserunners gifted to the exact side of the plate that hurts him. The Nationals bat four lefties in their top six, led by Wood at a .410 wOBA off righties and Abrams at .380 with 15 homers. One honest caveat: Houston's bullpen has been excellent, an xFIP near 3.1, so the damage has to come early while Burrows is still out there. I think it will, and with noticeably lighter ownership than the Dodgers, this is the stack that fits both cash and tournaments.
Core pieces: James Wood $5,900 (L), CJ Abrams $5,400 (L), Curtis Mead $4,400 (R), Luis Garcia $4,100 (L), Daylen Lile $3,600 (L)
Pitchers
Pitching splits cleanly into one stud, two arms whose surface numbers undersell them, and two cheap swings. My money starts at the top.
Cam Schlittler (NYY) at TB | $11,000 | CASH
Is the 2.08 ERA a little generous? Probably, an 81% strand rate flatters anybody, and the skill numbers point to something in the high 2s instead. I am comfortable saying that out loud and paying $11,000 anyway, because a 10.6 K/9 against a 1.8 BB/9 is the best ratio on this slate and Tampa carries one of its smallest team totals under a roof. Expect him to be far and away the most popular arm on the slate, and I will eat that chalk without complaint.
Kevin Gausman (TOR) at SF | $9,000 | CASH
Gausman's 4.19 ERA oversells the trouble. The xFIP under 3.4, an ordinary .293 mark on balls in play, and a 72% strand rate all say he has pitched most of a run better than the results, and San Francisco's 3.67 implied total is tied for the lowest number on the board. Two things keep my expectations honest: the Oracle wind blows out tonight, and righties have taken him deep better than twice per nine this season. That combination trims the ceiling without touching the floor, which is a fine trade at $2,000 under the stud.
Landen Roupp (SF) vs TOR | $8,300 | CASH
Roupp has run a better strikeout rate than Gausman this year, about 26% against 24%, at a fraction of the attention. His 4.55 ERA hides a 3.45 xFIP, a .328 batted-ball average that should settle, and a 49% ground-ball rate that plays anywhere. Toronto's 3.83 implied total keeps the spot manageable, and the walks, over four per nine, are the flaw you accept for the price. In cash I am happy pairing him with the Dodger bats he leaves affordable.
Dustin May (STL) vs MIL | $7,700 | GPP
A 4.82 ERA reads like a pass at first glance, which is why I keep coming back to it. May's xFIP sits at 3.63, his .322 average allowed on balls in play and 63% strand rate have both run cruel, and Milwaukee's 4.17 implied total is mid-pack. The catch is real, though: the Brewers stack the top of their order with lefties, and lefties have reached May for a .359 wOBA this year. So he is not a cash play for me. He is a cheap tournament arm whose results should start catching his skills, possibly tonight, at ownership light enough to make being right very profitable.
Shane Drohan (MIL) at STL | $7,300 | GPP
Which Drohan do you believe? The one with a 5.14 xFIP built on fly balls, or the one with a 3.20 SIERA, a 24% strikeout rate, and swinging strikes at nearly 13%? St. Louis and its 3.83 implied total will not settle the argument for you. I lean toward the whiffs being real, the wind at Busch helps his fly-ball habit, and at $7,300 in tournaments the price forgives me if the other version shows up.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
We are past the halfway point of the season, deep enough that a multi-run gap between ERA and xFIP is a signal rather than a small sample. Two arms tonight sit at the extremes.
Kyle Freeland (COL), Positive Regression Candidate
Freeland's 7.25 ERA is nearly three runs worse than his 4.34 xFIP, opponents carry a .359 average on balls in play, and barely 60% of his traffic gets left on base, the unluckiest combination of any starter tonight. He is a better pitcher than the line says. Tonight is also the single worst night to act on that, at Dodger Stadium with the wind out against the lineup I just told you to stack, so file this one for his next turn instead.
Reynaldo Lopez (ATL), Negative Regression Candidate
Lopez is the mirror image. A 3.34 ERA over a 5.88 xFIP, a .273 average on balls in play, and a 75% strand rate is the profile of a pitcher living on borrowed outs, and he has averaged under four innings across his last five starts, meaning Atlanta's bullpen gets involved early every time. The Mets get first crack at the correction, and Soto at $5,800 is the piece I would use if I want exposure to it.
Final Thoughts
Cash for me starts with Schlittler and Roupp, which leaves enough room to carry three Dodgers plus the two Washington lefties, then close with Smith at $2,900 or Walker at $3,700 from the Houston pile. If the salary refuses to cooperate, Gausman for Schlittler is the downgrade that costs the least. I would rather cut a star Dodger than lose Wood or Abrams against Burrows.
Nothing above is official until the actual cards post, so treat every batting order here as a sketch. The Washington five through nine and Houston's bottom third are where I expect the most movement, and the shower chance in DC is worth one last glance before the 6:40 ET wave locks.
For tournaments, the Houston and Washington game is my favorite single spot on the slate, a 10 total with two shaky starters and heat, so I am building double-sided: four Nationals lefties with Alvarez and Walker coming back the other way. Goodman, stapled to a 3.53 team total, is about as contrarian as a 27 homer bat gets, and Drohan or May over the Schlittler chalk is where a pitcher pick can win a tournament by itself. Enjoy Monday. The slate is better than it looks.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.