Weather to Watch
Detroit at Chicago Cubs | Wrigley Field | Overcast, 80F | Wind: 14 mph SW
Fourteen miles per hour running out toward left-center at Wrigley is the single biggest air advantage on the board, worth about a third more home runs than a windless night here. The one caveat is a 29% rain chance, and that is all that keeps me from calling this the top offensive environment tonight.
San Francisco at Kansas City | Kauffman Stadium | Clear, 101F | Wind: 7 mph WSW
A hundred and one degrees. That kind of heat turns the biggest outfield in the league into something a fly ball can actually escape, and the breeze nudging out adds to it, which is why the books have this one above ten.
Washington at Colorado | Coors Field | Overcast, 98F | Wind: 4 mph ENE
Altitude does most of the work at Coors and 98-degree air handles the rest, with barely enough crossbreeze to matter. This is the highest-scoring environment on the slate before you even look at who is pitching.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia | Citizens Bank Park | Clear, 82F | Wind: 6 mph S
Warm and calm in a park where pull power is already the currency. Six miles per hour drifting out will not carry a ball by itself, but it is enough that I have no hesitation about a left-handed bat here.
Baltimore at Boston | Fenway Park | Mostly Clear, 81F | Wind: 13 mph S
A 13 mph southerly runs at an angle that steers batted balls toward the right-field corner instead of the Monster. Mild temperature, moderate help, nothing I would build a lineup around.
New York Mets at Milwaukee | American Family Field | Mostly Clear, 88F | Wind: 18 mph SW
The roof reads open and there is real wind here, 18 miles per hour cutting across the yard at an angle that helps more than it hurts. Keep half an eye on the 23% rain chance, though the air itself is friendly.
Tampa Bay at Toronto | Rogers Centre | Overcast, 75F | Wind: 14 mph S
Roof open in Toronto with a steady breeze pushing out to center. Seventy-five degrees is neutral on its own, so the wind is the whole story, and it is a modest push toward the bats.
Cincinnati at Seattle | T-Mobile Park | Overcast, 83F | Wind: 3 mph NW
Eighty-three degrees is warm for Seattle, which normally would be worth something, but a dead-calm night at the most run-suppressing park in the sport does not move the needle. Bet on the arms.
St. Louis at Los Angeles Angels | Angel Stadium | Overcast, 77F | Wind: 7 mph SW
A soft breeze out with mild overcast air. Angel Stadium plays fair and this forecast keeps it there, a touch kinder to fly balls than most nights.
Pittsburgh at New York Yankees | Yankee Stadium | Clear, 78F | Wind: 11 mph SSE
The wind runs sideways here rather than helping anything out, so the short porch is doing this on its own tonight. Clear and 78 is a fine baseball evening and not much more.
San Diego at Atlanta | Truist Park | Heavy Drizzle, 87F | Wind: 10 mph N
This is the one forecast working against the hitters. Ten miles per hour pushing in from the north cancels out the warm air, and the drizzle is worth a look if you plan on any Atlanta exposure.
Phoenix, Houston, and Arlington all play under closed roofs tonight, so the forecast gets no say in those three.
HR Calls
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) $5,900 vs Emmet Sheehan
Sheehan has one hole and it is a crater. Left-handed hitters have taken him for a .486 slug with 1.8 HR/9 and a 26.5% HR/FB rate, so when a lefty elevates on him the ball tends to land in the seats. Schwarber is the bat in this pool built to punish that, pulling the ball better than half the time with a .309 ISO and a barrel rate north of 20%. Warm Philadelphia air is the last box checked, and among the premium bats he is the swing I want most.
Riley Greene (DET) $4,300 vs Jameson Taillon
DraftKings has not priced in how badly this matchup breaks Detroit's way. Left-handed bats have shredded Taillon for a .583 slug with 3.4 HR/9 and a 27.9% HR/FB, and he pairs that with 4.8 BB/9 to lefties, which is the profile of an arm that falls behind constantly and then has to groove one to get back in the count. Greene has been the hottest bat in this order over his last 15 games with a .396 ISO, and his 15.9% barrel rate says the quality of contact is real rather than a run of luck. Add the Wrigley breeze pushing toward the seats and this is the cleanest home run setup on the slate.
Spencer Torkelson (DET) $3,200 vs Jameson Taillon
Torkelson keeps hitting the ball hard and keeps getting priced like a bench bat. Taillon leaks to both sides, and righties have gotten a .437 slug and 2.0 HR/9 out of him, so hitting from the opposite box costs almost nothing here. Torkelson pulls the ball in the air 47.6% of the time with a 15.2% barrel rate, which is the shape that turns a Wrigley breeze into a souvenir. At this salary I do not need him to do anything but square one up.
Stacks to Target
1. Washington vs Kyle Freeland (L) | Implied Total: 6.36 | ROO Score: 6.3/10 | Cash
No offense on this board projects for more runs than Washington, and I think that number holds up. Hitters have battered Freeland all year for a 7.36 ERA with 46.1% hard contact and 1.8 HR/9, and right-handed hitters in particular have carved him up for a .587 slug with a 21.9% HR/FB. Washington happens to hit lefties best from that side, running a 133 wRC+ and a .470 slug as a right-handed group, which points straight at Curtis Mead, Dylan Crews, and Andres Chaparro. James Wood and CJ Abrams do not get the platoon edge but Freeland has allowed a .323 average to lefties too, so there is no side of this order I would avoid. The Colorado bullpen sits in the mid-4.00s on xFIP, so the innings after Freeland do not get much safer. Most of the room will land on this stack and I have no problem sharing it.
Core pieces: James Wood $6,900 (L), CJ Abrams $6,400 (L), Curtis Mead $5,400 (R), Dylan Crews $4,600 (R), Andres Chaparro $3,300 (R)
2. Detroit vs Jameson Taillon (R) | Implied Total: 5.63 | ROO Score: 5.8/10 | Cash
I keep circling back to this one. Taillon has not logged a start in six weeks, so his pitch count is almost certainly capped and Chicago should be going to the bullpen early. That group carries a 5.19 xFIP and is the real target here. Even setting the workload aside, he has allowed 3.4 HR/9 to left-handed hitters and 2.0 HR/9 to righties, so the damage is not confined to one side of the plate. Detroit lines up with Kevin McGonigle, Riley Greene, Colt Keith, and Kerry Carpenter from the left against a righty who cannot survive them, while Dillon Dingler and Spencer Torkelson supply the pop from the other box. Wrigley with the air moving out ties it together, and the pricing here is soft enough that you can fit five of these bats without straining the cap.
Core pieces: Dillon Dingler $4,600 (R), Kevin McGonigle $4,500 (L), Riley Greene $4,300 (L), Kerry Carpenter $3,600 (L), Spencer Torkelson $3,200 (R)
3. Arizona vs Jeffrey Springs (L) | Implied Total: 5.63 | ROO Score: 6.1/10 | GPP
Somebody has to be the contrarian option and Arizona is mine tonight. Hitters have run Springs up to a 6.11 ERA with 2.4 HR/9, and right-handed bats account for most of it, slugging .544 with a 27.8% HR/FB. Arizona is built to attack that, a 107 wRC+ from its right-handed side against lefties with a strikeout rate under 16%, which means a lot of balls in play from Gabriel Moreno, Nolan Arenado, and Tim Tawa, plus switch hitters Ketel Marte and Geraldo Perdomo who take the good side automatically. The Athletics bullpen behind him is worse than he is at a 5.84 xFIP, so the innings after Springs stay soft. The venue is the drawback, since a closed roof in Phoenix caps the ceiling next to Coors and Wrigley, and that is exactly why fewer rosters will bother with it. I will take that trade in tournaments.
Core pieces: Ketel Marte $5,000 (S), Gabriel Moreno $4,200 (R), Geraldo Perdomo $4,000 (S), Nolan Arenado $3,300 (R), Tim Tawa $2,700 (R)
Pitchers
Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) vs NYM | $12,000 | CASH
There is no such thing as a must-play pitcher in baseball. Misiorowski is the closest thing this season has produced. He is punching out 13.5 per nine behind a 1.99 xFIP and a 1.45 SIERA, and the Mets carry the lowest implied total on the board at 2.56. He has been especially unfair to left-handed bats, holding them to a .098 average, and the Mets send plenty of those up. Expensive, obvious, and I still cannot construct an argument against him.
Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) vs LAD | $11,000 | CASH
Sánchez is where I go if I want a top arm without every roster in the pool having the same one. His 2.62 ERA and 2.53 xFIP agree with each other, and a .334 BABIP suggests he has actually been a touch unlucky rather than the reverse. The walk rate under 5% keeps the floor high, and left-handed hitters have managed a .146 wOBA against him, which matters against a Dodgers order fronted by Shohei Ohtani. Los Angeles is implied for under four runs. My read is that he is underpriced relative to how few rosters will carry him.
Jacob deGrom (TEX) vs CWS | $10,000 | CASH
The surface line undersells him. A 3.50 ERA sits well above a 2.83 xFIP, mostly because the home run ball has been unkind, and the strikeout and walk profile underneath is still elite at 11.0 K/9 against 2.0 BB/9. Chicago is implied for 2.95 runs indoors in Arlington, which is a soft landing spot for a stretch of ordinary luck to correct. He is the chalkiest arm on the board and that reputation is deserved.
Dylan Cease (TOR) vs TB | $10,500 | GPP
Cease is all ceiling and some chaos. He punches out 13.6 per nine, which is the best mark on the slate alongside Misiorowski, but he also walks four per nine and the free passes are what stand between him and a cash tag. Tampa Bay is implied for 3.17 runs and strikes out plenty, so the setup is right. Put him where a five-inning, 100-pitch grind will not sink the whole build.
Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) vs NYY | $9,200 | GPP
Ashcraft has been better than his 3.50 ERA, backing it with a 2.70 SIERA and 10.2 K/9 while walking two per nine. What keeps him in tournaments only is where he is pitching, since Yankee Stadium is the friendliest home run park in the sport for left-handed hitters and Ashcraft has allowed 1.58 HR/9 to that side with a 21.2% HR/FB. Ben Rice and the Yankee lefties are the way this goes wrong. Cheap strikeouts on a roster nobody else will build is a trade worth making in a big field.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
Ryan Weathers (NYY), Positive Regression Candidate
Weathers carries a 4.17 ERA and has pitched more like a mid-3.00s arm. The xFIP lands at 3.12 and the SIERA at 2.87, both a full run or more below the ERA, and the gap is almost entirely home runs, with a 17.2% HR/FB that no pitcher sustains. He is also striking out better than a quarter of the hitters he faces while walking under 7%, and that combination usually catches up to the ERA. He pitches in the wrong park for that correction to arrive tonight, but Pittsburgh is the lineup least equipped to take advantage.
Nick Martinez (TB), Negative Regression Candidate
Nothing underneath Martinez supports that 2.65 ERA. He strikes out 5.3 per nine, the lowest rate among tonight's starters, and his xFIP sits at 4.41 with a SIERA of 4.35, so the real pitcher is a run and a half worse than the surface. An 85.2% strand rate and a .266 BABIP are the two things propping it up, and neither of those holds for long. Toronto has the bats and the open-roof breeze to be the club that finally collects. I want the Blue Jays hitters and none of the pitcher.
Final Thoughts
Misiorowski anchors the cash build, and the bats come from the two highest-projected offenses going, Washington in the Coors heat and Detroit facing an arm that has not thrown a start in six weeks. Andres Chaparro at $3,300 in the middle of that Nationals order is the piece that keeps a $12,000 arm and two premium bats in the same lineup, and Spencer Torkelson at $3,200 does the same job from the Detroit side. If paying all the way up on the mound does not appeal, George Kirby at $9,400 gets Cincinnati, implied for 3.16 runs, inside the quietest park in the sport, and that is the cheaper path to a trustworthy second arm.
Two forecast items deserve a final check. Wrigley carries a 29% rain chance, and the 14 mph wind blowing out is what makes the Detroit stack the price it is, so any afternoon shift there changes how hard I lean. Milwaukee has a 23% rain chance with the roof projected open, which is worth a glance if you have Misiorowski exposure and want certainty on the innings.
In a big field I want the Coors game attacked from both dugouts. The total sits at 12, Washington projects for 6.36 and Colorado for 5.64, and neither Freeland nor Andrew Alvarez is within shouting distance of an ace. Add the altitude and a five-three double stack becomes a build most lineups never assemble. Arizona is the other tournament angle, a strong offense drawing the worst starter on the slate in a spot the crowd will overlook because a closed roof in Phoenix does not look as fun as Coors. Pair that stack with Ashcraft and you have a roster that shares almost nothing with the field.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.