Weather to Watch
Detroit at Athletics | Sutter Health Park | Clear, 101F | Wind: 8 mph SW
A hundred and one degrees with a breeze pushing toward the outfield, in a park that was never built to hold a baseball in. Nothing else on the slate is close.
Washington at Atlanta | Truist Park | Mostly Clear, 87F | Wind: 12 mph SSW
Warm with the wind moving out and a 24% shot at a passing shower that should stay clear of first pitch. Truist plays fair most nights. Tonight it plays better than fair.
Kansas City at Colorado | Coors Field | Clear, 93F | Wind: 8 mph ENE
Ninety-three degrees a mile up. The crosswind adds almost nothing, but it does not have to add anything.
Philadelphia at Baltimore | Oriole Park at Camden Yards | Overcast, 86F | Wind: 10 mph SE
Hot, humid, and a crosswind nudging balls toward the left field wall, which means right-handed power collects most of the benefit here. Lefties get less of it.
Boston at Los Angeles Dodgers | UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium | Clear, 82F | Wind: 7 mph WSW
Clear and 82 with a light breeze carrying out to right. Chavez Ravine in August is a fine place to hit; the pitching matchup is the reason nobody will treat it that way.
Milwaukee at Los Angeles Angels | Angel Stadium | Clear, 83F | Wind: 7 mph SW
Mild wind out, mild park bump, no weather excuses for anybody. This is a normal night of baseball.
San Francisco at San Diego | Petco Park | Clear, 80F | Wind: 6 mph WNW
A small nudge for left-handed bats and nothing for anyone else. Petco stays Petco.
Arizona at Cleveland | Progressive Field | Light Drizzle, 75F | Wind: 4 mph WSW
Drizzle early, with only a 9% chance it turns into anything that matters. Cool and dead calm. The run environment belongs to the arms here.
New York Yankees at Chicago Cubs | Wrigley Field | Overcast, 70F | Wind: 19 mph NNE
This one changes how you build. Nineteen miles per hour in off the lake at 70 degrees strips roughly a third off the home run environment, which is why the game carries the lowest total on the slate at 6.5.
One roof closed tonight, Daikin in Houston, where Texas and the Astros play in a sealed 73-degree box and only the dimensions get a say.
HR Calls
Hunter Goodman (COL) $6,200 vs Luinder Avila
Colorado has been a mess all season and this bat keeps pulling me back in anyway. Goodman is the rare Rockie whose power shows up on the road, and tonight he does not have to go anywhere. Avila is the reason I am paying up: he has handed out walks at an 8.87 BB/9 clip to righty bats with an xFIP near six on that side, and that kind of command problem means falling behind constantly and then having to throw something straight over the middle to survive the count. Goodman pulls 47.7% of his contact and barrels 16.8% of everything he hits, which is the swing that punishes a pitcher who cannot afford ball three.
Michael Harris (ATL) $4,500 vs Miles Mikolas
DraftKings priced him at $4,500 for the best power environment Atlanta will play in this month, and I think that is a miss. Righties have taken Mikolas deep at a 2.33 HR/9 rate and lefties at 1.79, and he has put away under 13% of everybody he faces, so contact against him comes free and plenty of that contact leaves the yard. Harris hits from the left side with a 53.8% hard-hit rate and a .251 xISO. The wind at Truist is out toward left-center all night.
Hao-Yu Lee (DET) $3,200 vs Jack Perkins
He is not a power hitter by trade and he does not have to be tonight. Perkins misses plenty of bats, but right-handed hitters have hit him for a .346 wOBA and a .470 slugging mark with 1.62 HR/9 and an xFIP north of 4.80, which is a different pitcher than the one lefties see. Put a righty bat in 101-degree air with a park that grades 138 for right-handed power, and $3,200 buys a real chance at a ball leaving the yard from the bottom third of the order. That is enough for me.
Stacks to Target
1. Atlanta Braves vs Miles Mikolas (R) | Implied Total: 5.93 | ROO Score: 6.7/10 | Cash
Mikolas is the softest starting assignment on this board and the numbers are not subtle about it. His 5.65 ERA is the flattering version of a 6.58 xFIP. Put 2.03 HR/9 next to a 4.59 K/9 that ranks dead last among tonight's twenty starters and you get a pitcher hitters do not have to wait out. He walks nobody, which normally counts for something, except that throwing this many strikes with this little swing-and-miss just hands over more barrels. Atlanta's left-handed hitters carry a 116 wRC+ and a 20.1% HR/FB rate whenever a righty is on the mound, and Mikolas has allowed a .482 slugging mark to that side, so Drake Baldwin, Matt Olson, and Michael Harris are the three I want in order at the top. The relief behind him does not offer an escape hatch either, with a Washington bullpen xFIP of 5.83 and an HR/9 just under 2.00. Everybody will be here. Fine by me.
Core pieces: Drake Baldwin $5,100 (L), Matt Olson $4,900 (L), Michael Harris $4,500 (L), Ronald Acuna $5,600 (R), Mike Yastrzemski $2,700 (L)
2. Detroit Tigers vs Jack Perkins (R) | Implied Total: 5.77 | ROO Score: 6.2/10 | Cash
Perkins is a legitimately interesting young arm, which is why I want to be careful about how I sell this one. He runs a 10.57 K/9 with a SIERA in the low threes. The stuff is real. What is also real is a 58.5% strand rate propping up a 6.48 ERA, plus the 1.62 HR/9 he has surrendered to right-handed hitters, all of it happening tonight in 101-degree air at a park playing 138 for right-handed power. Detroit's righties own a 20.5% HR/FB rate against righty starters, so Dillon Dingler is the piece I want most and Spencer Torkelson and Gleyber Torres follow him. Riley Greene is the one lefty worth paying for because a .283 xISO and an 18.0% barrel rate travel to any park and any handedness. If Perkins gets pulled early it gets worse rather than better, since the Athletics bullpen sits at a 6.59 xFIP.
Core pieces: Dillon Dingler $5,900 (R), Riley Greene $4,900 (L), Spencer Torkelson $4,000 (R), Gleyber Torres $4,500 (R), Hao-Yu Lee $3,200 (R)
3. Kansas City Royals vs Ryan Feltner (R) | Implied Total: 5.55 | ROO Score: 5.3/10 | GPP
Almost everyone who looks at this game is going to roster the home team. I want the visitors. Hitters have beaten Feltner up from both sides, hanging a .360 wOBA with a 21.9% HR/FB rate to lefties and a .364 wOBA with a 25.0% HR/FB rate to righties, on top of 1.92 HR/9 and a 4.68 xFIP that is the charitable read on him. Kansas City's left-handed hitters post a 108 wRC+ and a 45.9% hard-hit rate versus righty starters, which points straight at Jac Caglianone and Carter Jensen near the top of the card. The honest caveat is that Colorado's bullpen has been the sturdier half of that pitching staff, so this stack lives on Feltner's innings rather than on all nine. That caveat is also why the Royals come cheaper in ownership than the Rockies out of the same 11.5-total game.
Core pieces: Jac Caglianone $5,100 (L), Carter Jensen $5,500 (L), Michael Massey $4,800 (L), Lane Thomas $4,100 (R), Salvador Perez $3,800 (R)
Pitchers
Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) vs BAL | $10,700 | CASH
His ERA understates him, which is a strange thing to say about a 2.74. A .338 BABIP is dragging on a line that a 2.52 xFIP and a 2.40 SIERA both insist should be lower, and neither of those numbers is a fluke of two good starts. His K/9 sits at 10.22 against a 1.82 BB/9, and left-handed hitters have managed a .138 wOBA against him, which I promise is not a typo. Baltimore is implied for 3.70. I cannot build an argument against him.
Jacob deGrom (TEX) vs HOU | $10,200 | CASH
You do not often get the best arm in the pool at a discount, and that is roughly what sits here. The gap between his 3.68 ERA and his 2.88 xFIP is the buy-low signal, and the 17.5% swinging strike rate underneath it leads the slate. Nobody here misses more bats. He puts away 29.6% of everyone who steps in. The one thing keeping him honest is a 15.5% HR/FB rate, though a roof-shut Daikin is a neutral place to be carrying that particular risk, and I am comfortable paying the freight even with half the field alongside me.
Max Fried (NYY) vs CHC | $8,400 | CASH
Of all the pitchers who did not need weather help tonight, he is first in line. Fried gets ground balls on 48.8% of contact and has allowed 0.13 HR/9 on the season, so lifting him was a bad plan before anyone looked at Wrigley, where the wind is 19 mph in and the total sits at 6.5. His 67.0% strand rate is the whole reason a 2.57 FIP shows up as a 3.25 ERA, and strand rate normalizes faster than anything else on a pitcher line. In the middle of the price range he is the arm I trust most.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) vs BOS | $10,300 | GPP
Nothing is wrong with this matchup, which is what makes my hesitation awkward to explain. Boston is the lowest implied offense on the board at 2.99, so he will sit near the top of the ownership board and the reasoning behind that holds up fine. What bothers me is underneath the 2.73 ERA: a .226 BABIP and a 78.7% strand rate that nobody sustains, with a 3.25 xFIP as the honest version of him. He is still very good. The spot is the softest available, and I would still rather not anchor a cash lineup to the surface line carrying the most air.
Walker Buehler (SD) vs SF | $7,000 | GPP
Nobody wants to type this name into a lineup right now and that is the entire appeal. A 5.13 ERA at $7,000 hides an xFIP of 4.10, a .304 BABIP and a 68.6% strand rate, which together say the arm underneath has been close to a full run better than the box scores. San Francisco is implied for 3.80 in a park that suppresses, and his 47.1% ground ball rate fits Petco. It is a dart. Darts also win tournaments, so I am not talking myself out of it.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
David Peterson (CHC), Positive Regression Candidate
Plenty of worse pitchers have posted better numbers this year, and he is the reverse case. A 6.61 ERA sitting next to a 4.19 FIP is one of the widest gaps you will find, and the mechanism is right there once you look for it. His BABIP is .337 and his strand rate is 58.4%, both close to the extreme end of unlucky, while he keeps the ball on the ground on 55.6% of contact. Nobody should mistake him for good. He is nowhere near as bad as that line reads, though, and tonight he gets Wrigley with a stiff wind blowing in.
Reynaldo Lopez (ATL), Negative Regression Candidate
Every bit of that 3.67 ERA is borrowed. The xFIP is 5.91, his BB/9 against left-handed hitters is 6.75, he puts 44.3% of contact in the air, and a 77.1% strand rate is the only thing holding the arrangement together. That points at Washington, and while a 3.57 implied total says nobody expects anything from them, the underlying matchup is far kinder than the number. James Wood and CJ Abrams from the left side are where I would go for a cheap piece of it.
Final Thoughts
Sanchez is the anchor and I would run him next to deGrom if the salary math cooperates, because both are arms whose ERAs sell them short. The cash bats then run through Atlanta's lefties, with Matt Olson and Drake Baldwin as the two I want most and Michael Harris at $4,500 as the price break that makes the rest of the roster fit. Mike Yastrzemski at $2,700 in that same order is the salary relief that gets you to two expensive arms without gutting the middle of your lineup. That is the build.
Atlanta carries a 24% chance of a passing shower around first pitch at a park with no roof, so that is worth one glance before lock. I also want to see the bottom of Detroit's card, because Hao-Yu Lee at $3,200 and Max Clark at $2,700 only matter if they hold the seventh and eighth spots. Wrigley is the third thing to watch: 19 mph in is a different game than 10 mph in, and that wind has been known to swing forty minutes before first pitch. Check it late.
Take the road team. The differentiating move is Kansas City out of the highest-total game instead of Colorado, since the field will crowd the home side and the Royals bats have the cleaner platoon fit against Feltner. Buehler at $7,000 pairs with that and frees up a second expensive arm. If you want one contrarian bat, Coby Mayo at $3,200 carries a .374 xISO and a 23.7% barrel rate, numbers that do not usually appear at that price, and Sanchez is meaningfully more hittable from that side with a .343 wOBA and a 20.8% HR/FB rate allowed to right-handed bats.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.