Weather to Watch
Miami at New York Mets | Citi Field | Overcast, 84F | Wind: 14 mph SSE
Fourteen miles per hour cutting across a warm gray afternoon in Queens, and the angle favors right-handed swings by a wide margin. Citi normally suppresses. Today it does not.
Washington at Atlanta | Truist Park | Mostly Clear, 86F | Wind: 10 mph SSW
Eighty-six degrees with the breeze running out and no meaningful rain risk. Both dugouts collect about the same benefit here. That symmetry is rare and it matters when you go hunting power.
Philadelphia at Baltimore | Oriole Park at Camden Yards | Overcast, 88F | Wind: 12 mph SE
Hot, heavy air with a crosswind tilting the gain toward righty bats. Camden already grades up for power. This nudges it further.
Arizona at Cleveland | Progressive Field | Violent Showers, 75F | Wind: 9 mph SSW
The forecast label says violent showers. The odds of rain at first pitch sit low enough that I would not build around a delay, and the breeze pushes out while the temperature does almost nothing either way.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati | Great American Ball Park | Overcast, 74F | Wind: 5 mph NW
A mild afternoon with barely any air moving. In most parks that is a shrug, and here it barely registers either, because the walls sit close no matter what the wind is doing.
St. Louis at Toronto | Rogers Centre | Overcast, 71F | Wind: 13 mph ENE
The roof projects open under a 46% chance of rain, the highest such number today and the one forecast item I would re-check before lock. Cool damp air with a crosswind lands this a hair under neutral for power.
New York Yankees at Chicago Cubs | Wrigley Field | Mostly Clear, 73F | Wind: 13 mph N
This is the one that changes builds. Thirteen miles per hour straight in off the lake strips close to a fifth of the home run environment out of the game, and it hits right-handed bats harder than lefties, which is why 6.5 is the smallest total anywhere today.
Two sealed buildings. Tropicana as always, Houston by projection, and wall distance decides both.
HR Calls
James Wood (WSH) $6,700 vs JR Ritchie
Ritchie is making his first start since late June, and the arm he is bringing back has never solved left-handed hitting. Lefties have walked off him at a 6.46 BB/9 clip and cleared the wall on 22.2% of what they lift. Those two numbers travel together. A pitcher handing out free passes at that rate spends his afternoon in three-ball counts, and the pitch he must groove to escape one of them ends up in the seats against a hitter this size. Wood owns a 171 wRC+ and a .571 slugging mark versus righties, with 60.1% hard contact and better than a third of everything he lifts in that split clearing a fence. Truist has the wind running out. He is the most expensive bat I want today and I am not agonizing over it.
Matt Olson (ATL) $4,800 vs Cade Cavalli
The argument against this one is real, so take it first. Cavalli has been good against left-handed hitters, missing bats at better than 10 K/9 with an xFIP in the mid threes, so nobody should pretend this is a soft assignment. What pulls me in anyway is the shape of the damage he does allow: 39.8% hard contact from that side, and 14.3% of what lefties lift against him turning into a homer, in the best power air anywhere today. Olson is slugging .558 off righties with a .289 ISO, 51.4% hard contact, and 31.7% of that split's fly balls going out. At $4,800 he is the best ceiling swing available in the four thousands.
Griffin Conine (MIA) $3,000 vs Robert Stock
New York is throwing a bullpen day. The man who records the first out barely factors into the read. Miami will see relief arms for most of nine innings, and the Mets relief group has been beaten up from the left side to the tune of a 5.31 xFIP, 1.84 HR/9, and a .350 wOBA over the last month. Conine has been a genuine problem for righties in a short sample, carrying a .320 ISO, a .644 slugging mark, 58.5% hard contact, and a 16.9% barrel rate, and the shortness of that sample is exactly why he costs three thousand dollars. For three thousand dollars I will take that trade every time.
Stacks to Target
1. Miami Marlins vs Robert Stock (R) | Implied Total: 4.53 | ROO Score: 4.9/10 | GPP
Nobody is going to want this offense and I understand why, because the Marlins have not scored much over the past week and the name attached to the opposing start means nothing to anyone. The build matters more than the name. New York's relief group has posted a 5.54 ERA and a 4.73 xFIP over the last thirty days with 1.49 HR/9, and against left-handed hitters specifically that becomes a 5.31 xFIP and 1.84 HR/9, which is the softest bullpen assignment on this board. Miami's lefty bats have put up a 117 wRC+ against righty pitching and cleared the wall on 18.8% of what they lift, and four of them hit in the first six spots behind Otto Lopez, who has batted .303 with a 122 wRC+ in the same split. The crosswind at Citi does more for righties than lefties, so Lopez and Javier Sanoja pick up the park help while the lefties feed on the arm quality. It is cheap and nobody is on it, against a staff that has to cover a full afternoon out of the pen. I want the shares in tournaments.
Core pieces: Otto Lopez $4,400 (R), Liam Hicks $4,300 (L), Kyle Stowers $3,700 (L), Griffin Conine $3,000 (L), Owen Caissie $2,900 (L)
2. Atlanta Braves vs Cade Cavalli (R) | Implied Total: 4.79 | ROO Score: 4.8/10 | Cash
Truist with the wind out is the best hitting air on this nine-game board. The market has Atlanta second in implied runs behind it. Cavalli is the complication. His strikeout rate holds up and his xFIP sits in the mid threes from both sides, so the starter is not what sells this stack. Everything behind him does. Washington's relief group has run a 6.79 ERA over the last thirty days with a 5.58 BB/9 and 1.81 HR/9, and against left-handed hitters that walk rate climbs near seven per nine with an xFIP right at six. Atlanta's lefty group sits at a 116 wRC+ versus righties, with one in five of their lifted balls clearing a fence, so the lefty middle of that order does the heavy lifting: Baldwin first, Olson second, Harris third. Ronald Acuna is the only righty I would still pay up for. This will be the popular offense today and the reasoning holds up, which is a fine reason to be there in cash.
Core pieces: Drake Baldwin $5,000 (L), Ronald Acuna $5,600 (R), Matt Olson $4,800 (L), Michael Harris $4,400 (L), Mike Yastrzemski $2,600 (L)
3. Cincinnati Reds vs Mitch Keller (R) | Implied Total: 4.93 | ROO Score: 4.7/10 | Cash
The highest implied total on the slate belongs to a team most people would not name if you asked them to guess. Keller has a wide handedness gap and it runs the wrong direction for him today: left-handed hitters have taken him for a .356 wOBA and a .479 slugging mark with 1.39 HR/9 and 18.0% of their fly balls leaving, against a .257 wOBA and 0.43 HR/9 from righties. That points the whole stack at three names. JJ Bleday is slugging .484 with a .256 ISO against right-handed pitching, Nathaniel Lowe sits at .509 with a 139 wRC+, and Elly De La Cruz turns around to his left-handed side carrying 53.1% hard contact. Great American does the rest. The Pittsburgh relief group is better against righties than lefties, so the same three names hold their edge into the middle innings. Plenty of people will land here, and I do not think they are wrong to.
Core pieces: Elly De La Cruz $5,500 (S), Sal Stewart $4,800 (R), JJ Bleday $3,800 (L), Eugenio Suarez $3,300 (R), Nathaniel Lowe $3,100 (L)
Pitchers
Zack Wheeler (PHI) vs BAL | $11,000 | CASH
There is no angle to find here and I stopped looking for one. Wheeler has struck out 31.1% of his opposition against a 5.8% walk rate, his WHIP sits at 0.92, and a 2.62 xFIP says the 2.53 ERA is not an accident of sequencing. The one nitpick available is a .251 batting average on the contact he allows, which against a strikeout and walk profile this extreme is a rounding error. Vegas prices the Orioles at 3.29 runs. He is the chalk and he should be.
Gavin Williams (CLE) vs ARI | $9,700 | CASH
The box scores have been lying about this arm for two months. A 3.72 ERA sits a full run north of his 2.73 xFIP and a run and a third clear of a 2.39 SIERA. The mechanism is easy to point at. A 15.3% share of what gets lifted against him has left the yard, and no arm holds that rate for six months. Underneath it he is missing bats at 11.36 K/9 with a 13.9% swinging strike rate, striking out 31.6% of everyone he sees. Arizona is priced for 3.28 runs. Thirteen hundred dollars cheaper than the top arm, and I would argue the projection gap is smaller than the price gap.
Gerrit Cole (NYY) vs CHC | $9,400 | CASH
Weather is doing him a favor and it happens to cover his one real flaw. Cole gives up fly balls at a 56% rate with 1.46 HR/9, which in most parks is the thing that ruins an otherwise clean line, and today he pitches at Wrigley with 13 mph coming straight in and a home run environment cut by nearly a fifth. Chicago is implied for 3.02 runs, the smallest number on the board, in the only game with a total under seven. His 3.49 xFIP and 3.57 ERA agree with each other, which is more than most arms today can say. He will be popular and the tax is worth paying.
Chase Burns (CIN) vs PIT | $10,500 | GPP
The surface line is the best on the slate and I do not believe it. An 85.3% strand rate and a .265 mark on the contact he allows are holding up that 2.41 ERA, and both sit at the far edge of what anybody sustains. His 3.43 xFIP is the honest version of the same arm. That is the bad news. On the positive side, a 15.4% swinging strike rate and 28.1% strikeout rate mean the ceiling is real, so I treat him as a tournament arm and not the foundation of a cash build. Pittsburgh's righties are the group he handles cleanly; the Pirates lefties have drawn walks at an 11.5% clip off him.
Griffin Jax (TB) vs CWS | $8,000 | GPP
Chicago is priced for 3.06 runs, second lowest today. He is the arm standing in front of them, which is the whole pitch here. It is a decent pitch. What keeps me from calling it safe is the distance between a 4.85 xFIP and a 3.76 ERA, plus a 17.2% share of lifted contact clearing fences, so the surface line here is closer to a mirage than a floor. The strikeout stuff is genuine at 9.61 K/9 with a 13.2% swinging strike rate, and eight thousand dollars in a dome against that offense is a fine tournament shape. I would not put him in a cash build.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
Peter Lambert (HOU), Negative Regression Candidate
A 3.06 ERA reads like a career year. Check where it came from. His xFIP sits at 4.42. Hitters have managed a .251 mark on the contact he allows, and 82.3% of the men who reach base against him never come around to score. Neither of those last two numbers survives a normal month. Right-handed hitters have already found the seam, taking him for a .334 wOBA and 1.54 HR/9 in the split. Texas is the offense holding the bill today, priced at 3.84 runs with Wyatt Langford and Ezequiel Duran the two righty bats I would grab if I wanted a piece of it cheap.
Matthew Liberatore (STL), Positive Regression Candidate
Nobody is going to roster him and that is fair, but the 5.28 ERA overstates the damage by a wide margin. Hitters have batted .346 on the contact they put in play against him, roughly sixty points above league norm, and a 4.19 xFIP grades the arm underneath as ordinary rather than disastrous. He is not good, though he is a fair bit better than a 5.28 pitcher. Toronto's righty bats also draw the friendlier side of him, since a 33.3% HR/FB mark against lefties has done most of the ugly work on that line.
Final Thoughts
Wheeler anchors and Gavin Williams is the arm I want beside him, because the price gap between them is bigger than the gap in how well they have pitched. The bats come out of Atlanta. Baldwin and Olson are the pair I am least willing to give up, Harris at $4,400 is the discount that lets the rest of a roster breathe, and Yastrzemski at $2,600 out of the seven hole is how you afford both arms. From Cincinnati, Nathaniel Lowe at $3,100 and Eugenio Suarez at $3,300 are the two cheapest ways into the highest implied total today.
Rogers Centre is the one thing worth a second look before lock. The roof projects open with a 46% chance of rain, which is high enough that the whole Toronto and St. Louis picture could shift on a forecast update. I would also watch where Miami slots Owen Caissie, since his ceiling only matters if he holds a spot in the top six rather than sliding to the bottom of the card.
Washington is where I go to separate. Ritchie is back from a six-week absence, so expect a short outing. That pulls in an Atlanta relief group that has given up 1.91 HR/9 to righty bats over the last month, and the Washington lefties grade out at a 121 wRC+ off righty starters with a 21.0% HR/FB mark. Wood and Abrams are the two to build around, and Luis Garcia at $5,500 is the third door in. If you want one more contrarian bat, Junior Caminero at $6,200 swings the bat at 79.7 mph against a southpaw righties have slugged .472 off with 1.48 homers allowed per nine.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.