Weather to Watch
Chicago Cubs at Kansas City | Kauffman Stadium | Overcast, 91F | Wind: 13 mph SE
Kauffman has the loudest air on the board, ninety-one degrees with a crosswind that lifts right-handed fly balls by roughly a fifth. Lefties get a much smaller cut of it, so I am weighting righty bats whenever the choice is close.
Colorado at St. Louis | Busch Stadium | Clear, 90F | Wind: 7 mph S
Ninety degrees turns Busch from a pitcher's building into something close to fair, and the soft breeze tilts the extra help toward right-handed pull. Keep that in mind when a Cardinals card full of righties draws a left-hander.
Minnesota at Milwaukee | American Family Field | Clear, 84F | Wind: 5 mph W
Forecasts have the roof open with 84-degree air drifting out. A small edge, but it flows to whoever gets the ball off the ground.
Detroit at San Francisco | Oracle Park | Clear, 66F | Wind: 16 mph W
This is the one that surprised me. Sixteen miles an hour pointed dead at center is the strongest push anywhere tonight, enough to drag a chilly Oracle evening into positive territory for both runs and homers.
Baltimore at Texas | Globe Life Field | Heavy Showers, 82F | Wind: 9 mph WSW
Rain sits in the forecast while the roof is projected to stay open, an odd pairing in Arlington. Close it and the warm-air bump vanishes and the building turns neutral.
Houston at San Diego | Petco Park | Clear, 81F | Wind: 11 mph NW
Eleven miles an hour coming in off the water and aimed back at the hitters. Petco does what Petco does, and right-handed power takes the worst of it.
Cleveland at Chicago White Sox | Rate Field | Clear, 77F | Wind: 6 mph ESE
A light breeze pushing back in on a pleasant night, which cancels out whatever the temperature was going to hand over. Treat this game as pure park.
Tampa Bay at Seattle | T-Mobile Park | Clear, 81F | Wind: 7 mph NE
Eighty-one is warm for Seattle and the air is still knocking balls down. Add it up and you land on neutral, which in T-Mobile terms means arms.
Chase Field has the roof shut for the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, so nobody in Phoenix needs a forecast.
HR Calls
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) $6,500 vs Seth Lugo
Spending up for the most expensive bat is how I lose slates, and I am doing it anyway. Crow-Armstrong has 19 homers and a .284 ISO with a righty on the mound, and he hits the ball hard on 52% of his batted balls. Lugo cannot get a whiff anymore, a 7.6% swinging-strike rate that ranks last among tonight's starters. Left-handed hitters have gone .283/.355/.445 off him. Ninety-one degrees at Kauffman and the highest implied total of the nine games make this the pick I would build around.
Jordan Walker (STL) $5,300 vs Kyle Freeland
A couple of summers ago most of the industry had moved on from Walker as a prospect. Now he puts 63% of his contact in the hard bucket against left-handers with a 35.3% HR/FB, the kind of line a hitter posts when his bat speed sits near the top of the sport. Freeland is the softest arm on the slate for a right-handed bat, allowing a .579 slug, 2.17 HR/9, and a 21.6% HR/FB to that side. At $5,300 this is one of the priciest hitters you can roster, so treat it as conviction rather than a bargain.
Joc Pederson (TEX) $3,200 vs Kyle Bradish
DraftKings has him at $3,200 hitting leadoff, which does not square with 20 homers and a 32.8% HR/FB against righties. Bradish walks 4.2 left-handed hitters per nine, and an arm that spends that much time behind in the count has to come back into the zone eventually, which is the exact pitch a puller like Pederson has been sitting on. Bradish has watched 15.9% of the fly balls lefties put up against him disappear. The salary is what makes this work at all.
Stacks to Target
1. Chicago Cubs vs Seth Lugo (R) | Implied Total: 5.71 | ROO Score: 5.9/10 | Cash
Kansas City is the softest landing spot on the slate and the market caught on, which is how the Cubs ended up with the highest implied total of the nine games. Lugo's 4.42 ERA understates the trouble. He strikes out under seven per nine and gives up a .313 BABIP, and right-handed hitters take him deep at 1.6 HR/9 on a 17.4% HR/FB. Chicago answers from the left side with Crow-Armstrong and Busch out of a group running a 119 wRC+ against righties, then Suzuki, Bregman, and Happ behind them in an order without a soft half. Kansas City relievers clean up whatever is left, and they have the weakest xFIP on this board against either hand, near seven versus left-handed bats. Half the field is going to land on this offense tonight, and I am comfortable being part of that.
Core pieces: Pete Crow-Armstrong $6,500 (L), Seiya Suzuki $5,400 (R), Michael Busch $4,300 (L), Ian Happ $4,000 (S), Dansby Swanson $3,700 (R)
2. Los Angeles Dodgers vs Brandon Pfaadt (R) | Implied Total: 5.27 | ROO Score: 5.5/10 | Cash
While Pfaadt is a perfectly employable big-league starter, he cannot miss a bat to save himself, and that is the whole story tonight. Six strikeouts per nine underneath a 5.59 xFIP means the 3.68 ERA is a loan he has to pay back, and the bill usually arrives from the left side, where hitters have slugged .455 on a 23.3% HR/FB. Ohtani, Freeman, and Muncy each sit above a 130 wRC+ against right-handers, and Ohtani alone is barreling 17.4% of his contact. Arizona's bullpen is the only thing giving me pause, since those relievers have held up better than the rotation at an xFIP under four, which is why I want the damage done in the first five innings. The roof is closed, so there is no forecast to argue about here, just the matchup.
Core pieces: Shohei Ohtani $6,400 (L), Freddie Freeman $5,500 (L), Max Muncy $5,400 (L), Andy Pages $4,800 (R), Ben Rortvedt $2,100 (L)
3. St. Louis Cardinals vs Kyle Freeland (L) | Implied Total: 4.99 | ROO Score: 5.1/10 | GPP
You do not often see a 6.83 ERA written up as an opportunity, and I understand the hesitation. Some of that number is bad luck on contact, but a 46% hard-hit rate says Freeland earned most of it. Right-handed hitters have a .394 wOBA against him with a 21.6% HR/FB, and St. Louis will send six or seven righties at him in ninety-degree Busch air that grades elite for power tonight. Walker is the headline, though Masyn Winn at $3,400 and Blaze Jordan at $2,400 buy the same platoon edge for pocket change, and Ivan Herrera bats third with almost no attention on him. Colorado's relievers will not rescue him either. I would go five deep here and take my chances that most of the room is somewhere else.
Core pieces: Jordan Walker $5,300 (R), Ivan Herrera $4,200 (R), Masyn Winn $3,400 (R), Blaze Jordan $2,400 (R), Pedro Pages $2,500 (R)
Pitchers
Gavin Williams (CLE) vs CWS | $9,900 | CASH
Nothing about a 3.56 ERA tells you Williams has the nastiest strikeout stuff on the board, and that is the gap I am buying. His 2.66 xFIP and 2.31 SIERA against 11.5 K/9 put the real run prevention a full run lower, and every bit of the difference is home runs off a fly-ball rate that should settle down. The White Sox are priced for 3.43 runs with the breeze pushing back in at Rate Field. He will be chalk, and this is one of those nights where the field has it right.
Jacob deGrom (TEX) vs BAL | $9,600 | CASH
He is the most heavily rostered arm tonight, which usually makes me itch, though not here. A 17.5% swinging-strike rate and better than ten and a half strikeouts per nine live underneath a 3.98 ERA that a .296 BABIP and a 74% strand rate have pushed the wrong way, and no lineup tonight is priced lower than Baltimore's 3.15. The homer rate is the one crack, 15.5% of fly balls against him, and Globe Life may sit open with showers in the area.
George Kirby (SEA) vs TB | $8,900 | CASH
Kirby gets you most of the way to the same argument for $700 less. He walks 1.8 per nine, and command travels better than anything else when you are building a cash lineup. His 3.76 ERA sits on a .328 BABIP that nobody carries across a full year. Tampa Bay draws the lowest game total on the slate at seven, in a park that swallows fly balls, with the breeze fighting carry. I expect a fraction of the attention deGrom gets.
Taj Bradley (MIN) vs MIL | $8,700 | GPP
Bradley is the arm on this slate most likely to hand you either a slate-winning line or a two-inning disaster. He misses ten bats per nine, which is the good half. The bad half is a walk rate near four per nine and 1.4 HR/9 against left-handed hitters, and Milwaukee has the platoon edge under an open roof in warm air. His ERA and xFIP agree at about 3.7, so nothing here is a mirage, the outcomes are just wide, and wide is what I want in a tournament and cannot stomach in cash.
Michael King (SD) vs HOU | $7,400 | GPP
King's 3.46 ERA is doing him more favors than his stuff has earned. He has stranded 78% of baserunners behind a .256 BABIP, his walk rate against lefties climbs above four per nine, and Houston can point Alvarez and Varsho straight at that split. Petco and a wind coming in are the two real reasons to consider him, and they are decent ones. Quiet attention plus strikeout upside makes him a fair tournament dart and nothing more.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
Landen Roupp (SF), Positive Regression Candidate
Roupp's 4.34 ERA has little to do with how he has pitched. He strands 66.5% of his baserunners when the typical starter lands closer to 73%, while a 3.58 xFIP and a 3.47 FIP both peg him as a mid-threes arm. He gives up 0.69 HR/9, which is a rare number for anybody. Detroit is the offense standing on the wrong side of that correction, and that stiff Oracle breeze pointed at center is the only thing that might postpone it a night.
Clay Holmes (CHC), Negative Regression Candidate
Holmes carries a 2.41 ERA that his 3.73 xFIP wants nothing to do with, and the culprits are the familiar ones: a .252 BABIP and an 82% strand rate, both of which drift back toward the middle. Against right-handed hitters he has stranded 93% of the runners he allowed, and that number does not exist across a full season. Then there is workload. His last logged start came in the middle of May, so he takes the mound tonight after a long absence, and I would plan on a modest pitch count instead of a six-inning grind. Kansas City collects on both fronts, and a short start means the Royals see relief innings earlier than usual.
Final Thoughts
My cash build starts with two arms from the strikeout tier and works backward. Gavin Williams is the one I want most, with deGrom or Kirby beside him depending on how the salary lands, and Kirby is the cheaper road to the same low-total environment. From there the spine is Crow-Armstrong plus one more Cub, then Ohtani or Freeman out of the Dodgers order. Rortvedt at $2,100 and Blaze Jordan at $2,400 are the two discounts that make the top of that roster affordable, and Pederson at $3,200 does similar work if you would rather spend the salary on a third expensive bat.
Two roof calls deserve a second look before lock. Arlington is the strange one, showers in the forecast with the roof still projected open, and if they close it the small warm-air boost for Texas and Baltimore bats disappears. Milwaukee is the same question in reverse, since the Twins and Brewers only get that 84-degree carry with the roof up. I would also recheck the Oracle wind reading, because a sixteen mile an hour push straight to center is a big enough number that it is worth confirming rather than assuming.
For tournaments, St. Louis against Freeland is the swing I trust most, and stacking it four or five deep with righties gets you a ceiling nobody else is paying for. Kansas City bats are the quieter version of the same idea: Holmes is working off a long layoff with a shiny ERA that has been borrowing from the bullpen gods all season, and Caglianone and Witt at the top are the ones I would use. San Diego is worth a look too, since Peter Lambert's 3.08 ERA hides a 4.28 xFIP and an 81% strand rate that has been carrying him for months. One more thought for anyone trying to get away from the Cubs: trim the Dodgers rather than Chicago, since Arizona's relievers are the one group on this slate built to end a big inning early.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.