Weather to Watch
Chicago Cubs at Kansas City | Kauffman Stadium | Clear, 96F | Wind: 17 mph SSW
Ninety-six degrees and a 17 mph wind blowing toward the seats is the best hitting environment I have seen in weeks. Righty swings collect the biggest share of it, and both dugouts benefit, not just the road favorite.
Athletics at Boston | Fenway Park | Clear, 90F | Wind: 12 mph WSW
Ninety at Fenway with the breeze angled out to center. The heat does more work than the wind, and it takes a park that already produces runs and adds a little more.
Toronto at Philadelphia | Citizens Bank Park | Partly Cloudy, 92F | Wind: 7 mph W
The 92-degree reading carries this one, and the crosswind hands the extra help to left-handed pull power. Citizens Bank in August heat plays small.
Atlanta at New York Yankees | Yankee Stadium | Overcast, 91F | Wind: 10 mph WNW
Hot air moving out in the Bronx, with lefty swings getting the bigger cut. That description fits most of the home order, which is worth remembering later.
Colorado at St. Louis | Busch Stadium | Overcast, 91F | Wind: 13 mph S
Another 91-degree game, and the crosswind tilts the benefit toward right-handed carry. Busch normally sides with the arms. Not this afternoon.
Cleveland at Chicago White Sox | Rate Field | Partly Cloudy, 84F | Wind: 10 mph SSW
Mild temperature, a slight righty lean from the wind, and a small shower chance. Nothing here should change a roster decision.
Minnesota at Milwaukee | American Family Field | Overcast, 85F | Wind: 7 mph SSW
Milwaukee lists an open roof next to a 39% rain chance, which is the kind of contradiction that usually gets settled an hour before first pitch. Closed, the mild warm-air bump goes away and the building plays flat.
New York Mets at Pittsburgh | PNC Park | Clear, 82F | Wind: 5 mph WSW
Pleasant and quiet at PNC. A modest nudge for righty power and that is the entire report.
Miami and Arlington both project closed roofs, so those two games play indoors and the forecast has no say.
HR Calls
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) $6,300 vs Shane Bieber
Bieber's comeback season has not gone the way Toronto drew it up, and Sunday hands him the one hitter who punishes his exact flaw. Across 37 innings he is walking 6.4 lefties per nine, and when a pitcher lives that deep in bad counts, the get-me-over fastball eventually arrives, which is a death sentence against a hitter who has cleared the fence on 42% of his fly balls versus righties this year. Schwarber's 58% hard contact says the misses get punished, and 92-degree air at Citizens Bank pushes lefty power up by roughly a fifth. It is the priciest kind of pick, and I still want it.
Seiya Suzuki (CHC) $5,700 vs Randy Dobnak
This one is nothing more complicated than the best air of the day pointed at the right swing. Dobnak has faced righties for fewer than ten innings this season and they have already tagged him for a .357 wOBA while sending 25% of their flies out, and he is walking 6.5 of them per nine, the pattern of a sinkerballer who falls behind and then has to throw strikes he does not want to throw. Suzuki has turned 21.4% of his flies against right-handers into homers, and Kauffman at 96 with the wind pushing out rewards exactly that contact. At $5,700 this is a second expensive bat rather than any kind of value, and the game environment justifies paying twice.
Griffin Conine (MIA) $3,400 vs Grayson Rodriguez
DraftKings has not repriced Conine for what he is doing to right-handed pitching. Through 134 plate appearances in the split he owns a .307 ISO with hard contact on 57% of his batted balls, and his .333 ISO over the last 30 days says the surge is still running. Rodriguez walks nearly five lefties per nine while allowing a .556 slug to that side, the profile of a pitcher who gets into deep counts and then grooves one. The Miami roof stays shut, so there is no weather help. There does not need to be at this price.
Stacks to Target
1. Chicago Cubs vs Randy Dobnak (R) | Implied Total: 5.93 | ROO Score: 6.6/10 | Cash
Everything about this slate funnels toward the Cubs, and I see no reason to fight it. Dobnak's sparkling surface line is a mirage, and I lay out the full case in the regression section below, but the short version is that he strikes out fewer than five hitters per nine and survives on contact in the worst park and weather imaginable for that plan. Chicago's left side runs a 120 wRC+ against righties, so Crow-Armstrong, Busch, and Happ profile for steady damage while Suzuki and Swanson chase the bigger share of the wind. When Dobnak leaves, a Kansas City relief group carrying a 7.20 ERA over the last 30 days with homers flying out at two and a half per nine takes over, and its lefty numbers are even uglier than that. This is the most rostered offense of the afternoon and it deserves to be.
Core pieces: Pete Crow-Armstrong $6,500 (L), Seiya Suzuki $5,700 (R), Michael Busch $4,300 (L), Ian Happ $4,200 (S), Dansby Swanson $4,000 (R)
2. Boston Red Sox vs J.T. Ginn (R) | Implied Total: 6.52 | ROO Score: 6.2/10 | Cash
Boston owns the largest implied total on the board, which might surprise anyone who only looked at Ginn's 3.52 ERA. His xFIP sits nearly two runs higher at 5.46, propped up by a .249 BABIP, and the left side of the plate is where the whole act unravels: 5.7 walks per nine to lefties, who have also launched 19% of their flies over the fence. Abreu, riding a .375 ISO over the last 30 days, and Duran get that split, while Contreras brings a 156 wRC+ against righties with a HR/FB rate north of 30% for the other half. Fenway at 90 with the air moving out gives every mistake a tailwind. The Athletics bullpen has posted a 7.9 ERA over the last 30 days with a homer rate pushing two per nine, and the scoring window stays open long after Ginn departs. Cash for me, comfortably.
Core pieces: Wilyer Abreu $5,100 (L), Willson Contreras $5,100 (R), Ceddanne Rafaela $4,700 (R), Jarren Duran $4,000 (L), Masataka Yoshida $3,100 (L)
3. St. Louis Cardinals vs Michael Lorenzen (R) | Implied Total: 5.71 | ROO Score: 6.0/10 | GPP
Lorenzen's 6.97 ERA is the rare bad number a pitcher earned on merit. Lefties are slugging .610 against him with hard contact on 47% of their swings, righties sit at a .351 wOBA, and there is no split to hide in. St. Louis gets him in 91-degree Busch air that boosts right-handed carry by a fifth, which suits Walker's 26.7% HR/FB against righties and Herrera hitting cleanup, while Burleson's 164 wRC+ in the split anchors the lefty half. Colorado's relievers walk more than six lefties per nine, so the traffic keeps coming after the starter exits. The backend prices are what push this into my tournament builds: Winn, Jordan, and Crooks cost almost nothing and bat in the same order as the expensive names. With most rosters anchored in Kansas City, five Cardinals buys a comparable ceiling at a discount.
Core pieces: Jordan Walker $5,400 (R), Alec Burleson $5,200 (L), Ivan Herrera $4,200 (R), Masyn Winn $3,400 (R), Blaze Jordan $2,400 (R)
Pitchers
Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) vs MIN | $12,600 | CASH
I tried to build a case against Misiorowski at this price and came up empty. The 1.63 ERA holds up under a 1.86 xFIP, 13.8 K/9, and the highest swinging-strike rate of any starter going today at 17.3%. Lefties hold a .167 wOBA against him, and Minnesota's 2.26 implied total is the smallest team number of the day by a wide margin. He is the clear chalk at pitcher. Some afternoons the obvious answer holds up.
Cam Schlittler (NYY) vs ATL | $11,700 | CASH
Schlittler misses bats at eleven per nine while walking two, and his 2.81 xFIP endorses nearly all of the 2.26 ERA. The honest caveat is a .269 BABIP that will drift up eventually, though a 2.31 SIERA argues the stuff can absorb it. Atlanta checks in at a 3.65 implied total, and the only element I dislike is 91-degree Bronx air sitting under his occasional mistake fastball. Expect company on him. If the salary fits alongside Misiorowski, that pairing is my favorite way to start a cash roster.
Jesús Luzardo (PHI) vs TOR | $10,200 | CASH
Luzardo's 3.37 ERA undersells him, since a .310 batted-ball average has worked against him all year while his 2.94 xFIP and 10.8 K/9 describe a better pitcher. Toronto arrives with a 3.02 implied total, one of the lowest marks on the slate, and its right-handed core has to deal with a lefty who still runs a double-digit strikeout pace against that side. The strikeout ceiling is obvious, and I struggle to sketch the blowup scenario. He costs $1,500 less than Schlittler for a similar argument, which matters on a day with three arms worth paying for.
Joey Cantillo (CLE) vs CWS | $8,300 | GPP
Cantillo strikes out nearly ten per nine, and a .330 BABIP suggests the results have been a touch worse than the process. The problem is 4.3 walks per nine that shorten his outings and invite disaster innings, and the White Sox implied total of 4.12 is midrange rather than soft. That is a wide range of outcomes at a modest price. In tournaments, wide is exactly what I am shopping for, and his attention level should stay quiet next to the three arms above him.
Jared Jones (PIT) vs NYM | $8,200 | GPP
The whiff numbers here are legitimate, a 17.2% swinging-strike rate that nearly matches Misiorowski's, and the Mets arrive at a 3.46 implied total with the softer half of their order intact. So why is he a tournament piece and not a cash one? Homers. Lefty flies leave the park on him at a 26% clip this season, and his ERA already runs above its 3.14 xFIP. The strikeout ceiling can win a slate. The blowup risk is real enough that I want him at reduced attention, not as a foundation.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
Randy Dobnak (KC), Negative Regression Candidate
A 1.19 ERA from a 4.5 K/9 arm is not a line that survives September. Dobnak's xFIP sits at 5.84, his BABIP allowed is a friendly .226, and he has stranded 96.5% of his baserunners, a figure no pitcher has ever carried through a season. Every one of those numbers is due to come back to earth, and the schedule handed him the Cubs with a 17 mph wind blowing out at 96 degrees for the occasion. Chicago is the offense set up to cash the correction.
Connor Prielipp (MIN), Positive Regression Candidate
Prielipp has pitched much better than his 4.78 ERA reads. The 3.89 xFIP with 9.4 K/9 describes a quality arm, and a 61.4% strand rate, miles below the typical low seventies, means runners have scored against him at a pace that luck alone explains. His reward for all that is a date with Milwaukee at a 5.24 implied total, so I am filing the buy-low for a friendlier matchup rather than acting on it today. The turnaround probably arrives soon, just not in this building against this order.
Final Thoughts
My cash roster starts with Misiorowski and adds Schlittler or Luzardo depending on how the bats price out. From there I want Suzuki plus one more Cub, Contreras as the Boston piece, and a third stack partner from whichever of those two games the salary allows. The $2,400 and $2,500 price tags on Blaze Jordan and Jimmy Crooks are how you afford all of it, and Yoshida at $3,100 fills the same role if you would rather buy into Fenway.
The Milwaukee roof is the one call I would confirm late, since a 39% rain chance sits next to a projected open building and a closure flattens the small hitting bump for both sides. I would also glance at the Kauffman wind reading within an hour of lock, because a 17 mph number is doing a lot of work in the Cubs thesis, and even a downgrade to 10 would soften it. Rate Field's shower chance looks minor, but it is the only other weather item on the board worth a second look.
For tournaments, St. Louis five-deep against Lorenzen is my favorite swing, priced well below its ceiling thanks to that cheap bottom third. The quieter idea is Yankee lefties against Grant Holmes, whose 3.67 ERA floats on a 6.16 xFIP with a .263 batted-ball average, while he allows 1.5 HR/9 in a 91-degree Bronx wind that favors exactly the Rice, Garcia, and Chisholm side of the plate. Miami against Rodriguez is the forgotten spot indoors, with Stowers and Conine drawing the slate's most walk-prone lefty split. And if you want the contrarian half of the Kauffman game, Witt and Perez get lefty Matthew Boyd with the same wind at their backs and a fraction of the interest.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.