Weather to Watch
Tampa Bay at Athletics | Sutter Health Park | Clear, 90F | Wind: 12 mph SW
Ninety degrees in Sacramento with the breeze pointed at the seats, and this grades as the strongest hitting air anywhere on the board tonight. Right-handed swings collect the biggest cut of it.
Philadelphia at St. Louis | Busch Stadium | Clear, 96F | Wind: 11 mph S
Ninety-six is the hottest reading of the night. Busch usually sides with the arms, though at 96 with a southerly crosswind it stops doing that, and righty pull power collects almost all of the benefit.
New York Mets at Atlanta | Truist Park | Clear, 92F | Wind: 6 mph WSW
The wind barely registers. Heat carries this one, and Truist grades out as the third-best power environment on the slate on temperature alone.
Baltimore at Minnesota | Target Field | Overcast, 89F | Wind: 4 mph ESE
Warm air pushing against a light breeze coming back in. The heat wins that argument, though the homer bump runs much larger than the runs bump, and that distinction is worth holding onto when you shop this game.
Texas at Los Angeles Angels | Angel Stadium | Overcast, 78F | Wind: 9 mph SW
Mild and drifting out. A small nudge for both dugouts and nothing that should override the matchup work.
Boston at Toronto | Rogers Centre | Clear, 77F | Wind: 12 mph SSW
Forecasts have the roof up in Toronto with a 12 mph wind angled out. That is a real help, and it lands on the one game where I already liked the hitters.
Kansas City at Los Angeles Dodgers | Dodger Stadium | Mostly Clear, 73F | Wind: 7 mph WSW
Pleasant evening in Chavez Ravine with a light push toward the pavilion. Left-handed bats get more of it than righties do.
Houston at San Francisco | Oracle Park | Clear, 63F | Wind: 11 mph W
Sixty-three degrees and an 11 mph wind off the bay aimed out. The wind does just enough to drag a cold Oracle night up to something like fair instead of hostile.
Milwaukee at San Diego | Petco Park | Overcast, 74F | Wind: 7 mph WSW
Not much to report. Petco stays Petco, and the crosswind sends what little help exists toward the left side.
Chase Field projects a closed roof for Colorado and Arizona, so that game plays indoors no matter what Phoenix does outside.
HR Calls
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) $6,500 vs Noah Cameron
Left-handed hitters are supposed to be the wrong way to attack a left-handed starter, except Cameron has the whole thing backwards. Same-side bats have hit .278 with a .452 slug against him and cleared the fence on 17.4% of their fly balls, while righties sit nearly eighty points of slugging lower. Ohtani has 11 homers off southpaws with a .286 ISO and a 33.3% HR/FB in the split, so the platoon disadvantage that would usually push me elsewhere does nothing to this one. Kansas City relievers behind him carry the weakest xFIP against left-handed bats of any pen on the board, which keeps the window open even if Cameron escapes the third time through.
Willson Contreras (BOS) $5,300 vs Jameson Taillon
DraftKings is charging real money for Contreras and the price still looks light next to what Toronto is running out there. Taillon has surrendered 26 homers in 80 innings on a 50.8% fly-ball rate, and 29.3% of the flies right-handed hitters put in the air against him have left the yard. Contreras answers with a .524 slug and 16 homers versus righties on 46.4% hard contact, which is the exact profile you want opposite a fly-ball arm under an open roof with the wind out. This is an expensive bat and not a discount, and I am fine paying it.
Ryan Vilade (TB) $3,300 vs Jacob Lopez
Nothing about Tampa Bay's roster suggests a $3,300 outfielder should be the salary save of the night, and yet here we are. Lopez walks 5.2 right-handed hitters per 9 against a 5.40 xFIP to that side, and a pitcher issuing free passes at that clip has to come back over the plate eventually, which is the pitch that turns into a souvenir at 90 degrees with the wind blowing out. Vilade owns a .505 slug and a 20.7% HR/FB against left-handers, and he is batting cleanup for the team the market likes most tonight. Roster him and the rest of the build gets easier.
Stacks to Target
1. Tampa Bay vs Jacob Lopez (L) | Implied Total: 5.91 | ROO Score: 6.5/10 | Cash
Start here. Tampa Bay is priced for more runs than any other team tonight, the game total sits at 10, and Sutter Health Park at 90 degrees with a 12 mph wind out is the best power environment of the night. Lopez has been ordinary against lefties and something worse than that against righties, surrendering a .382 wOBA and 1.86 HR/9 to righties on an 18.3% HR/FB while walking 5.2 of them per 9. Caminero is the centerpiece with a 166 wRC+ and a 41.2% HR/FB versus left-handers, and Diaz, DeLuca, and Vilade line up behind him with the identical handedness advantage. Athletics relievers sit above a 5.40 xFIP against right-handed bats, so the innings after Lopez are not much of a reprieve. Half the field will end up here tonight. I have no problem sharing.
Core pieces: Junior Caminero $6,400 (R), Yandy Diaz $5,100 (R), Jonny DeLuca $4,600 (R), Ryan Vilade $3,300 (R), Carson Williams $2,300 (R)
2. Los Angeles Dodgers vs Noah Cameron (L) | Implied Total: 5.49 | ROO Score: 5.7/10 | Cash
While Cameron is a capable starter with a strikeout rate that plays, the split he owns runs the wrong way for a left-hander facing this particular order. Lefties have gotten him for a .336 wOBA and 1.23 HR/9 while righties are stuck at .304, so Ohtani and Tucker keep their damage upside instead of surrendering it, and Pages brings a 144 wRC+ against southpaws from the other side of the plate. Kansas City is priced for the smallest team total of the slate by more than a run, which tells you where the market expects the scoring to come from. The pen behind Cameron is the real prize, worst xFIP on the board against lefties and not much friendlier to righties. One caution: Betts sits at a 50 wRC+ versus left-handers this season and is drawing more attention than anyone else in this lineup, so he is the piece I would swap out.
Core pieces: Shohei Ohtani $6,500 (L), Freddie Freeman $5,500 (L), Andy Pages $5,000 (R), Tommy Edman $4,500 (S), Kyle Tucker $4,200 (L)
3. Boston vs Jameson Taillon (R) | Implied Total: 5.16 | ROO Score: 5.6/10 | GPP
It feels odd to call an offense with the fourth-highest implied total a leverage play, and the projected interest on these bats is the only reason it qualifies. Taillon earned every run of his 5.96 ERA. He has given up 26 homers in 80 innings and roughly half of everything hit against him goes in the air. Left-handed hitters have him for 3.18 HR/9 and 4.8 BB/9, righties for 2.70 HR/9 and a 29.3% HR/FB. With the roof up at Rogers Centre and a 12 mph wind out, he loses the one condition that might have covered for him. Contreras and Rafaela work the righty half, Abreu and Duran the lefty half, and Duran's 31.3% HR/FB against right-handers matters a great deal more here than his batting average does. Toronto relievers run an xFIP near 5.72, so the scoring window does not shut when the starter walks off.
Core pieces: Willson Contreras $5,300 (R), Wilyer Abreu $5,000 (L), Ceddanne Rafaela $4,600 (R), Jarren Duran $4,000 (L), Connor Wong $2,600 (R)
Pitchers
Tarik Skubal (LAD) vs KC | $10,700 | CASH
I spent a few minutes hunting for the argument against paying up here and never found one. The 2.82 ERA is honest work underneath a 2.59 xFIP and a 2.16 SIERA, and the strikeout-to-walk shape is close to unfair at 10.7 K/9 against 1.4 BB/9. Kansas City is priced for the lowest team total of the night by more than a run, so the matchup does nothing to complicate it either. I will take the boring build.
Logan Henderson (MIL) vs SD | $10,200 | CASH
Henderson buys you a nearly identical strikeout argument for $500 less. He misses more bats than Skubal on a rate basis at 11.2 K/9, walks fewer than two per 9, and a 2.56 xFIP endorses the surface line rather than undercutting it. The honest caveat is an 85.6% strand rate that has to drift back down at some point. Petco and a San Diego offense priced under four runs give me enough cover to ignore it tonight.
Reid Detmers (LAA) vs TEX | $8,700 | CASH
Start with the bad news, since a 4.12 ERA is nobody's idea of a cash anchor. Now the good news, which is most of the story. His 3.39 xFIP and 2.78 SIERA say the run prevention belongs a full run lower, a 68.7% strand rate accounts for where the difference went, and right-handed hitters have managed a .286 wOBA against 10.8 K/9. Texas at a 4.43 implied total is the uncomfortable part, though Angel Stadium suppresses power as well as any yard on this slate, and Detmers should go far less rostered than the two arms above him.
Casey Mize (SD) vs MIL | $9,000 | GPP
Mize generates swinging strikes on nearly 13% of his pitches, and hardly anybody is going to have him. The reason is a 3.40 ERA that reads pedestrian next to the price tag. What I like is the shape underneath it: 8.6 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, and left-handed hitters held to a .238 wOBA, which is the half of the plate Milwaukee leans on. The part I do not love is a 3.3% HR/FB that has to normalize sooner or later, though if it starts tonight, Petco is a forgiving place for it.
Freddy Peralta (TB) vs ATH | $6,700 | GPP
Peralta has pitched a lot better than his 5.38 ERA reads. A 4.11 xFIP, a .324 BABIP, and a 67.1% strand rate all point the same direction, and 8.9 K/9 says the stuff still shows up on time. Then why file him as a dart rather than a bargain cash arm? The park. He walks into the best home run environment of the night against a lineup priced above four runs, and lefties have already gone deep on him at 1.79 HR/9. I want that range of outcomes in a tournament and nowhere near a cash roster.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
Hunter Dobbins (STL), Negative Regression Candidate
A 3.60 ERA out of an arm carrying a 5.44 xFIP is a bill that eventually comes due. Dobbins has stranded 83.0% of his baserunners while allowing hard contact on 45.1% of batted balls, and those two numbers do not live together for long. Right-handed hitters have done nearly all of the damage, posting a .369 wOBA with 2.04 HR/9 and a 30.8% HR/FB in the split. Philadelphia's problem is that Turner is one of only a few bats on that side of the plate, so I would buy individual righties here instead of a full stack. Busch air at 96 degrees lifts righty carry by better than a fifth, which is what makes those particular at-bats worth paying for.
MacKenzie Gore (TEX), Positive Regression Candidate
Gore's 4.56 ERA describes a worse pitcher than the one taking the ball in Anaheim. A 3.59 xFIP and a 3.28 SIERA both land in the mid-threes, 9.8 K/9 is legitimate, and a 70.3% strand rate sits under where starters normally settle. Anaheim is a small park for power, so the Angels have to beat him with traffic rather than one swing. I am not spending $8,500 to test the theory on a night with cheaper strikeouts available, but I would file the name for a softer matchup.
Final Thoughts
Skubal is where I start and Henderson is who I want next to him, and if the bats price out badly, Detmers is the discount version of the same strikeout argument for $2,000 less. Caminero plus a second Ray forms the spine, and Ohtani is the Dodger I want alongside them. Vilade at $3,300, Wong at $2,600, and Rortvedt at $2,000 are the three prices that make a top-heavy roster affordable, and I would rather use two of them than water down the expensive end.
Two roof readings deserve a look inside the last hour. Toronto lists the roof open with a 12 mph wind out, and closing it removes the help that makes the Boston stack more than a matchup play. Phoenix projects shut, which matters less. The other concrete item is Arizona's starter, whose most recent logged outing dates to mid-June, so a first turn back after that long a gap almost certainly comes with a capped pitch count. That cuts two ways for Colorado bats: fewer innings to work against him, and Diamondbacks relief innings arriving much earlier than a normal night.
Boston is where I want my tournament exposure. Taillon has given up homers to both sides of the plate all season, the roof is up with the wind out, and the interest on those bats sits well under what a total that size normally attracts. The quieter angle is Peralta, since rostering a lightly used arm with a 4.11 xFIP gets you into the Sacramento game from the pitching side while the room piles into Tampa Bay hitters. Mize at Petco is the last dart I would throw.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.