Weather to Watch
Boston at Pittsburgh | PNC Park | Overcast, 81F | Wind: 7 mph WSW
Eighty-one and sticky under a gray sky, which is warmer than PNC usually hands you for a one o'clock start. The breeze runs across the diamond rather than over the fence, so the thermometer is the only part of this worth putting in your math.
Arizona at Atlanta | Truist Park | Clear, 93F | Wind: 6 mph NW
Ninety-three degrees is the largest single reading on this board, and air that thick moves a fly ball further than six miles an hour of crosswind can take back. Every fly ball hit here gets a bump.
New York Yankees at Toronto | Rogers Centre | Clear, 75F | Wind: 10 mph ENE
The panels are forecast up with ten miles an hour running sideways at a comfortable 75. Pleasant afternoon, almost no effect on how the ball travels.
Washington at New York Mets | Citi Field | Clear, 82F | Wind: 12 mph SSE
Twelve miles an hour is the strongest air anywhere today, and at 82 degrees in a yard that normally clips power, that drags Citi back toward neutral from its usual hostility. Do not skim past this one.
San Diego at Cleveland | Progressive Field | Drizzle, 81F | Wind: 7 mph W
Light drizzle, humidity at 88%, and warm air fighting the damp to a draw. Treat the conditions as a non-factor and spend your attention elsewhere.
Chicago White Sox at Detroit | Comerica Park | Overcast, 83F | Wind: 8 mph SSW
Warm enough to matter a little, in a park whose outfield distances eat most of what the thermometer offers. The rain chance is a third, the highest reading of the afternoon.
Miami at Cincinnati | Great American Ball Park | Overcast, 87F | Wind: 7 mph W
Wind out, 87 degrees, and the smallest outfield anybody is playing in this afternoon. No park on this slate treats a fly ball better, and the margin is not close.
Philadelphia at Minnesota | Target Field | Mostly Clear, 80F | Wind: 10 mph NW
Ten miles an hour angled toward the outfield at 80 degrees with a clean forecast behind it. Target Field plays honest, so a tailwind here tends to show up in the box score rather than dying on the track.
Every game on the main slate is outdoors today, which does not happen often. Toronto's roof is the only structural question and the forecast has it open.
HR Calls
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) $6,200 vs Dean Kremer
Sixty-two hundred for a leadoff hitter is a real cost and I am paying it. Kremer has surrendered 2.28 HR/9 to left-handed bats, one in four of their fly balls has ended up in the seats, and a .519 slug means the ones that stayed in the park still hurt. Schwarber brings a .300 ISO, a 19.2% barrel rate and 58.3% hard contact, which clears the elite bar on any scale you prefer. Add a ten-mile-an-hour tailwind at Target Field and I will take my chances on the price.
Francisco Lindor (NYM) $4,700 vs Jake Irvin
The Mets own the largest implied total anywhere today and draw the shakiest starter attached to one, and that overlap usually costs more than $4,700 for the man hitting second. Irvin's trouble with left-handed hitters starts with location: 4.57 BB/9 in that split means he lives behind in counts, and a pitcher working from 2-0 all afternoon ends up putting one in the middle, which is how that group has produced 48.7% hard contact and a 16.7% HR/FB mark. Lindor turns around to that side of the plate against a righty. Twelve miles an hour blowing out at Citi is the last ingredient this needed.
Heriberto Hernandez (MIA) $3,800 vs Nick Lodolo
He came up this summer and the batted-ball line is the reason to care: a .323 ISO with barrels on 13.7% of his contact across 113 trips. The sample is small and I will not pretend otherwise. Lodolo is why I will eat that, because right-handed hitters have taken him for 1.98 HR/9 on a 25% HR/FB rate with 43.8% hard contact, and his 3.60 BB/9 against them stretches counts out until he has to give in with a strike. Put it in Cincinnati with the wind out at 87 degrees, at value-tier pricing in the two hole, and one swing pays for the whole thing.
Stacks to Target
1. New York Mets vs Jake Irvin (R) | Implied Total: 5.19 | ROO Score: 4.9/10 | Cash
A 5.19 team total is the biggest number on the slate and it is pointed at the arm I would least want to be. Irvin's 5.81 ERA overstates the damage and his 4.52 xFIP is the honest version, but neither one survives 4.57 BB/9 to left-handed hitters who have squared up 48.7% of what he throws. New York aims that side straight at him, with Ewing leading off, Benge in the four hole, Young behind them, and Lindor and Polanco both turning around from the switch side. That lefty group carries a 107 wRC+ and a .165 ISO opposite right-handers, with 17.9% of the fly balls they hit clearing a fence, and twelve miles an hour of outbound air removes the usual reason to shade Citi Field down. The part I like most is what comes after Irvin: Washington's relievers have run a 5.79 xFIP and 2.29 HR/9 against right-handed hitters, which hands the late innings to Bichette, Robert and Alvarez. Plenty of people are going to be here. Being different for its own sake has never won me anything.
Core pieces: Francisco Lindor $4,700 (S), Bo Bichette $4,500 (R), Carson Benge $4,100 (L), A.J. Ewing $4,000 (L), Jorge Polanco $2,400 (S)
2. Philadelphia vs Dean Kremer (R) | Implied Total: 4.87 | ROO Score: 4.5/10 | Cash
Nine and a half is the largest game total posted anywhere today, and Philadelphia's half of it runs through the left side of the plate. Kremer's 5.25 ERA is not the number that convinces me, because sequencing luck comes and goes; 2.28 HR/9 to lefties with a 25% HR/FB rate and a .519 slug is contact quality he cannot take back. Six of the nine Phillies bat left-handed against him, and that unit has posted a 113 wRC+, a .191 ISO, 43.7% hard contact and a 20.2% HR/FB mark versus right-handed pitching this season. The tailwind at Target Field is the accelerant on top. Minnesota's bullpen has held up against lefties at a 3.98 xFIP, which is the one thing keeping me from calling this the cleanest spot on the board. It is also the most rostered lineup of the afternoon. I am building it anyway.
Core pieces: Kyle Schwarber $6,200 (L), Bryce Harper $6,000 (L), Trea Turner $4,900 (R), Luis Arraez $4,400 (L), Brandon Marsh $4,300 (L)
3. Miami vs Nick Lodolo (L) | Implied Total: 4.53 | ROO Score: 3.8/10 | GPP
My tournament money goes here. Lodolo is a southpaw whose work against right-handed hitters has come apart, a 4.84 xFIP with 1.98 HR/9, 43.8% hard contact and a 25% HR/FB rate, and Miami answers with six righties in the order. That group has hit for a 116 wRC+ with a .185 ISO and a 19.4% HR/FB rate opposite left-handers, and it does so at prices cheap enough that you can fit a second stack around it. Then there is the address, because nowhere else today does a fly ball get the help it gets in Cincinnati with the wind out at 87 degrees. My hesitation is the Reds relief corps, which has been good against righties at a 3.60 xFIP, so the runs probably need to land before Lodolo hands the ball over. None of this is a secret, but the field is nowhere near as concentrated here as it is on the first two lineups, and that gap is most of why I want it.
Core pieces: Heriberto Hernandez $3,800 (R), Otto Lopez $4,600 (R), Agustin Ramirez $3,600 (R), Esteury Ruiz $3,700 (R), Leo Jimenez $2,400 (R)
Pitchers
Dylan Cease (TOR) vs NYY | $10,800 | CASH
I went looking for the argument against him and came back with nothing. Cease is running a 36.1% strikeout rate at 13.11 K/9, and the three run-prevention marks in his line all sit in the mid-twos together, so nothing here is propped up by sequencing. The Yankees are priced at 3.26, the lowest total posted for any team this afternoon. He is going to be chalk, heavy chalk, and that is the only thing you pay for him beyond salary.
Christian Scott (NYM) vs WSH | $7,500 | CASH
Scott is how I pay for the top of the board. He punches out 11.29 K/9 behind a 3.45 xFIP, and a .318 average on contact against him is well north of normal, which explains most of the daylight between his results and his skill. Washington is priced at 3.31, second-lowest among the sixteen teams here. One thing gives me pause: the Nationals' left-handed bats have been their best group at a 119 wRC+ against righties, and Scott sees five of them, so the price is buying a matchup that is softer on paper than in practice. I still want him, because $7,500 in this slot is what funds two stacks.
Ryan Weathers (NYY) vs TOR | $8,500 | GPP
The tournament arm of the slate, and it is not close. Weathers' 3.71 ERA is the least honest number in his profile, since a 3.09 xFIP and a 2.98 SIERA point at a much better pitcher and an inflated 17.2% HR/FB rate covers the whole gap. He misses bats at 9.70 K/9 against a 2.64 BB/9. Toronto has been helpless against left-handed pitching all year, an 81 wRC+ from their right-handed bats and a 55 from their lefties, and they sit at 3.74 inside a game total of 7, the smallest number posted today. Tournament rosters will barely touch him, which is the only reason a profile this good sits at $8,500.
Casey Mize (SD) vs CLE | $8,600 | CASH
Mize's 3.38 ERA trails a 2.90 FIP, and a 71.7% strand rate covers most of that distance. He has not pitched worse than his ERA, he has sequenced worse, and that corrects without him changing a pitch. He walks 2.25 BB/9, and lefties have managed a .296 slug with 0.33 HR/9 off him. Cleveland's lefties have managed a .139 ISO against righties this season. The honest counterweight is that the Guardians sit at 4.13, the highest team total behind any arm I am recommending, so this one asks you to trust the skill over the environment.
Eury Pérez (MIA) vs CIN | $8,700 | GPP
Good pitcher, wrong building. Pérez owns a 3.63 xFIP with 9.91 K/9 and that is legitimate front-half work, but right-handed hitters have reached him for 1.65 HR/9 on a 25% HR/FB rate with 43.3% hard contact, and Cincinnati runs six righties into a park with the wind blowing out at 87 degrees. He is drawing popular attention, which tells me the room is buying the arm and skipping past the address. I covered the Marlins bats above, and if you make me pick a side of this game, I take the hitters.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
Sean Burke (CWS), Negative Regression Candidate
Eighty-nine hundred dollars buys a 3.00 ERA that I would not put any weight on. An 81.6% strand rate leads every starter working today, and a 6.5% HR/FB rate sits under half the league mark, which is not a number a pitcher gets to keep. The bat-missing is legitimate at 10.12 K/9 with a 2.60 BB/9, and I would buy those strikeouts at this price. The ERA is a separate product. Detroit collects if the bill comes due this afternoon, and at a 4.09 implied total with modest attention on those bats, that is a tournament thought worth holding.
Andrew Painter (PHI), Positive Regression Candidate
A 6.29 ERA at $5,500 looks like a pitcher on his way out of a rotation, and the work underneath is closer to mediocre than disastrous: a 4.09 SIERA, a .323 opponent mark on balls in play, and a 66.9% strand rate that ranks with the roughest sequencing luck any starter is carrying today. I want to be careful how far I push that, because 1.69 HR/9 and 3.48 BB/9 are real flaws and no correction erases them. Minnesota's 4.63 total is priced off the surface line, though, and the pitcher who takes the mound is probably better than the one the market is paying for.
Final Thoughts
Cash starts with Cease, and Scott at $7,500 is how the second rotation slot gets paid for without raiding the bats. My bats come from two places, Lindor and Bichette out of Queens, Schwarber and Harper out of Philadelphia, and Polanco at $2,400 plus Jared Young at $2,700 handle the minimum slots so nothing in between gets squeezed. That puts the whole build inside the two largest team totals on the slate with salary left over.
Two things I would look at before lock. Pittsburgh and Detroit are both running bullpen games, with Lake Bachar and Drew Anderson listed but neither one built to work deep, so anyone touching Boston or Chicago bats should plan on three or four arms rather than a starter and a pen. The other is rain, since Detroit and Cincinnati both sit near a one-in-three chance, not enough to build around but worth a glance if the Marlins are in your lineup.
Tournaments are where Miami lives. Six right-handed bats against a left-hander who has given up nearly 2.00 HR/9 to that side, in the best power environment on the board, at prices that leave room for a second stack alongside them. Weathers is the arm I would bolt onto it, because Toronto has been overmatched by left-handed pitching all season and he is the cheapest route to that strikeout profile. Arizona is my other lean, with Atlanta's relievers carrying a 5.65 xFIP and 2.28 HR/9 against right-handed hitters underneath 93-degree air, though I would size it smaller since the Diamondbacks have not hit righties well all year.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.