Weather to Watch
Detroit at Pittsburgh | PNC Park | Overcast, 80F | Wind: 3 mph SW
Nothing is moving in Pittsburgh. A warm gray evening gives fly balls a small nudge and that is the whole story, so PNC's dimensions decide the rest, and those dimensions have never had much good to say about right-handed power.
Arizona at Boston | Fenway Park | Partly Cloudy, 71F | Wind: 4 mph E
Fenway is the one park tonight where a hitter loses ground to the conditions. Humidity sits at 92% with a light breeze coming in off the harbor, and the net read on fly balls lands just under neutral, which I do not often get to write about this yard in August.
San Diego at New York Mets | Citi Field | Overcast, 83F | Wind: 3 mph SE
Warm and thick in Queens with the breeze crossing instead of pushing, and the temperature by itself is worth close to a double-digit bump on balls in the air. Citi usually shaves power off the top, so this reads more neutral than hostile.
Athletics at Kansas City | Kauffman Stadium | Partly Cloudy, 90F | Wind: 3 mph NNE
The hottest first pitch anywhere today, with a soft breeze pushing back in from center and humidity down at 29%. Dry air at that temperature still wins the argument, and Kauffman's gaps turn whatever stays in play into extra bases.
Atlanta at Minnesota | Target Field | Overcast, 83F | Wind: 10 mph WSW
Target Field draws the only genuine wind of the evening and it happens to be aimed the right way. Air moving toward the outfield at 83 degrees produces the largest run-scoring lift on this board, and the home run lift ranks second only to Denver. This yard does not have hidden tricks in it, which means outbound air here turns into runs rather than long outs.
Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs | Wrigley Field | Clear, 72F | Wind: 2 mph SE
Dead still and cool on the North Side. Take the wind away from Wrigley and you take away the one thing that makes it swing hard in either direction, which leaves the flattest environment on the board.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado | Coors Field | Clear, 92F | Wind: 5 mph E
Altitude plus 92 degrees plus 11% humidity is about as extreme as this sport gets. Those three inputs together produce more home run help than any other yard tonight and the second-place finisher is not within shouting distance. The crosswind is a rounding error next to all of it.
Seven games, seven open roofs, so nobody gets to skip this section today.
HR Calls
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) $7,000 vs Tomoyuki Sugano
Nobody on this board costs more and I have zero interest in getting clever about it. Left-handed hitters have slugged .584 against Sugano with 2.55 HR/9, close to a quarter of the fly balls they hit have gone over a wall, and at 5.25 K/9 he cannot miss enough bats to slow any of it down. Ohtani answers with a .234 ISO, barrels on 16.5% of his contact, 56.8% hard contact and 48% of his air balls pulled, which is exactly the profile that ruins a pitch-to-contact righty. Put it in 92-degree Denver air at 11% humidity and the salary stops being the interesting part.
Jac Caglianone (KC) $5,000 vs Mason Barnett
Caglianone has finally started hitting like the player Kansas City drafted, and the last 15 games are where you see it: five home runs, a .328 ISO and a .707 slug. Barnett is the softest arm anybody draws today and nothing else is in the conversation: a 7.05 xFIP with 4.83 BB/9 and 2.65 HR/9, with lefties specifically clearing fences at 2.41 HR/9 on a .541 slug. Handing out close to five walks per nine means he works from behind all night, and a pitcher living at 2-0 eventually has to put one over the middle just to escape the inning. Five thousand makes him the second-priciest bat in this section, and against that arm I have no problem paying it.
Mike Yastrzemski (ATL) $3,000 vs Bailey Ober
DraftKings has him at three thousand and I cannot work out the reasoning. Yastrzemski has gone deep three times over his last 15 games with a .424 ISO in that window, he pulls 47.5% of his fly balls, and he carries a .182 ISO against right-handed pitching over 277 trips, so the price is not buying a fluke. Ober puts 48.6% of his contact in the air and against left-handed hitters he manages only 4.40 K/9 while conceding 1.88 HR/9 on an 18.5% HR/FB rate, which describes a pitcher with no way to protect himself once a lefty gets under one. Add the only real tailwind on the slate and I want the swing.
Stacks to Target
1. Los Angeles Dodgers vs Tomoyuki Sugano (R) | Implied Total: 7.64 | ROO Score: 6.6/10 | Cash
A 7.64 team total is the sort of number that only shows up when a good offense visits Denver against a pitcher who cannot generate a swing and miss. Sugano's 4.45 ERA and 4.76 xFIP both understate what happens to him in this building, because 5.25 K/9 and 41.1% hard contact allowed puts the ball in play over and over, and at altitude that is the whole problem. His platoon ledger is brutal, a .584 slug and 2.55 HR/9 conceded to lefties, and Los Angeles sends Ohtani, Freeman, Muncy, Tucker and Feduccia up from that side. That group owns a 124 wRC+ with a .180 ISO and 42.8% hard contact opposite righties this season. Colorado's relief corps has been ordinary at a 4.13 xFIP, so a short outing offers no shelter. Everybody is going to roster this offense, and it still carries the lowest bust risk of any lineup here. In cash I will take that trade every time and skip the argument.
Core pieces: Shohei Ohtani $7,000 (L), Freddie Freeman $6,200 (L), Max Muncy $5,700 (L), Andy Pages $5,600 (R), Hunter Feduccia $2,900 (L)
2. Kansas City vs Mason Barnett (R) | Implied Total: 5.74 | ROO Score: 5.6/10 | Cash
There is no angle to find here, only a pitcher who should not be starting a major league game. Barnett has thrown 37.3 innings this season to the tune of a 6.27 ERA and a 7.05 xFIP, and the underlying work is worse than the surface, which almost never happens. He walks 4.83 per nine and surrenders 2.65 HR/9, and both handedness splits are ugly rather than one of them: 2.41 HR/9 with a .541 slug to lefties, 2.84 HR/9 and a 33.3% HR/FB rate to righties. Kansas City's left-handed bats have posted a 105 wRC+ with 44.9% hard contact against right-handed pitching, so Jensen, Caglianone, Pasquantino and Massey are the spine of it, with Witt as the righty who does not need the platoon edge. Oakland's bullpen has run above a 5.00 xFIP, so the innings after Barnett are not a reprieve, and 90 degrees at Kauffman turns doubles into something better. The field will be here in force. I do not care.
Core pieces: Bobby Witt $6,000 (R), Jac Caglianone $5,000 (L), Carter Jensen $4,500 (L), Vinnie Pasquantino $4,000 (L), Michael Massey $3,600 (L)
3. Minnesota vs Martín Pérez (L) | Implied Total: 4.14 | ROO Score: 4.4/10 | GPP
Pérez has an invoice coming due and I would rather be holding the bats when it arrives. He has held opponents to .230 on contact, the softest mark any starter here is riding, and stranded 81.6% of his traffic on top of it, while his 5.25 xFIP lands more than two runs above that ERA. He also hands right-handed hitters 4.38 BB/9, which is where this Minnesota order lives, and Jeffers has been excellent from that side at a 169 wRC+. Atlanta's relievers have been rough at a 5.56 xFIP, so the later innings are every bit as attackable as the early ones. Add the tailwind, which is the only meaningful air movement in any of the seven parks. The honest counterweight: Buxton has not homered across his last 15 games, and this lineup sits in the lighter half of the projected ownership range for reasons you can see. At these prices that is most of the appeal.
Core pieces: Ryan Jeffers $4,700 (R), Royce Lewis $4,500 (R), Byron Buxton $5,200 (R), Josh Bell $3,600 (S), Austin Martin $3,200 (R)
Pitchers
Nolan McLean (NYM) vs SD | $9,800 | CASH
Nothing in McLean's profile argues against him, which is unusual for a rookie at this price. He strikes out 28.0% of the hitters he sees at 10.51 K/9, and his 3.44 ERA, 3.36 xFIP and 2.98 SIERA cluster tightly enough that no part of the line is borrowed from luck. His handedness split settles this matchup: righties have hit .174 with a .272 slug off him, and San Diego answers with Tatis, Machado, France, Campusano and Bogaerts. Padres righties have been merely league average at a 100 wRC+ opposite right-handed pitching, and the whole offense is priced at 3.83. Popularity is the only real tax you pay here.
Shota Imanaga (CHC) vs CWS | $8,500 | CASH
Chicago's other team is the softest lineup on the slate by implied runs at 3.19, and Imanaga is a fine way to bet against it. He walks 1.90 per nine, a 5.2% rate, and generates a 14.4% swinging strike mark, which is the best bat-missing profile at this price point. His flaw is real and I am not hiding it. He gives up 1.84 HR/9 overall on a HR/FB rate near 18%, and that climbs above 2.25 HR/9 once a lefty digs in, so Murakami and Colson Montgomery are the two at-bats that can wreck the start. Wrigley in dead air at 72 degrees is about the best possible place to carry that risk. There is enough popularity here that you are not being contrarian, and I am fine with that in a cash build.
Framber Valdez (DET) vs PIT | $7,500 | CASH
Valdez has not lost anything, he has lost sequencing arguments. A 4.15 xFIP says the arm is intact, .301 of the contact against him has found grass, and just 71.7% of his traffic has been stranded, which accounts for most of the distance between his line and his skill. He keeps 47.6% of contact on the ground, and lefties have struck out at 10.80 K/9 against him while managing 0.57 HR/9. Pittsburgh's left-handed hitters are the strongest part of that order opposite righties, and yet the whole lineup falls apart against a southpaw, an 86 wRC+ with a 30.0% strikeout rate. Pair a 3.83 total with still air at PNC and this is the salary break that lets a roster afford its top end.
Michael Wacha (KC) vs ATH | $8,800 | GPP
Wacha is my favorite tournament arm on the board, and the reason is a platoon accident. The Athletics send five left-handed bats to the plate, and lefties have hit .226 with a .346 slug and 0.73 HR/9 off him on an 8.8% HR/FB rate, which is comfortably his better side. He also walks only 2.46 per nine, so the free innings do not happen. Two honest concessions. His 3.48 ERA runs roughly seven-tenths of a run below his 4.19 xFIP, so cash builds should not be anchored to it, and righties have gotten to him for 1.56 HR/9 with hard contact north of 43% in 90-degree air. Oakland at a 3.26 implied total makes both survivable, and he projects for almost no attention.
Luis Castillo (CWS) vs CHC | $7,800 | GPP
I keep talking myself into this one and back out of it. Castillo's 4.90 ERA sits two-thirds of a run above his 4.27 xFIP, .301 of the contact against him has found a hole, and a 67.7% strand rate has been robbing him for five months, so the arm is better than the ledger. He still gets whiffs at 8.17 K/9 with a 2.82 BB/9. The problem is the opponent, because the Cubs are priced at 4.81 and their left-handed hitters have run a 119 wRC+ with a .197 ISO against righties while lefties have slugged .508 with 1.89 HR/9 off Castillo. Small exposure, tournaments only, and largely on the theory that still air at Wrigley puts a ceiling on the damage.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
Martín Pérez (ATL), Negative Regression Candidate
No starter tonight has a shinier ERA supported by less. Opponents have hit .230 on contact against Pérez and 81.6% of the runners he allows never score, and both of those readings are the most extreme on this board, while his 5.25 xFIP describes a pitcher more than two runs worse than his results. He has nothing to lean on when the sequencing turns either, just 6.79 K/9 against 3.65 BB/9, and the walk rate jumps to 4.38 BB/9 once a righty steps in. Minnesota is the offense in line to cash that check, and it is a large part of why I want those bats at a modest total.
Walker Buehler (SD) vs NYM, Positive Regression Candidate
Buehler at $6,500 with a 4.89 ERA looks like a starter the market has written off, and the underlying case is ordinary rather than bad: a 4.09 xFIP, a 3.97 SIERA, .309 of the contact against him falling in, and only 70.8% of his runners stranded. He is still getting swings and misses at 7.89 K/9. There is a limit to how far I will carry that, because 3.71 BB/9 and a 22.5% HR/FB rate allowed to righties are flaws no correction wipes away. New York at 4.17 is priced off the ERA, though, and the arm that actually takes the ball tonight is better than the discount suggests.
Final Thoughts
The cash build begins at Coors and works backward from there. McLean at $9,800 is the arm I trust most on this board, Valdez at $7,500 covers the second rotation spot without forcing a raid on the hitters, and the offense runs through Ohtani and Freeman in the Dodgers order with Caglianone at $5,000 anchoring the second stack. Feduccia at $2,900 fills the catcher slot, which keeps the middle of the roster from getting squeezed. That leaves a build concentrated in the two biggest team totals of the night with salary still on the table.
Fenway deserves a closer read than the forecast gives it. Boston has not logged a start from Bello since the first week of June and the club has a second arm listed at $4,000 on this slate, so Arizona is likely seeing relievers early instead of a starter working into the sixth. That cuts both ways, because the Boston bullpen has been excellent at a 3.09 xFIP against right-handed hitters, which takes most of the shine off the Diamondbacks bats and is why they are nowhere in this article. Kansas City's batting order matters too, since Caglianone in the three hole rather than lower changes how much of the Barnett damage he is positioned to collect.
My tournament money lives in Minneapolis. Minnesota facing a pitcher who has allowed only .230 on contact, with the one real tailwind of the night and Atlanta's relievers at a 5.56 xFIP waiting behind him, is the differentiated spot I want most, and the prices are soft enough that a second stack fits alongside it. Olson belongs in every tournament roster regardless of how the rest is built, because eight home runs across his last 15 games against a fly ball pitcher conceding 1.88 HR/9 to lefties is the cleanest single matchup available. Wacha is the pitcher I would pair with that construction, since Oakland's five left-handed hitters walk straight into his better half and he grades out among the lightest-owned starters here at $8,800.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.