Weather to Watch
Minnesota at Athletics | Sutter Health Park | Clear, 97F | Wind: 9 mph SW
Sacramento at 97 degrees, wind pushing out. That's a 22% home run boost and nothing else on the slate is close. If you remember one weather note today, make it this one.
Baltimore at St. Louis | Busch Stadium | Clear, 92F | Wind: 7 mph WNW
Busch normally suppresses offense, and 92 degrees is about the only thing that drags it back to neutral. Lefty bats get about 18% here, righties around 14%.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta | Truist Park | Mostly Clear, 90F | Wind: 4 mph WNW
Almost no wind, so the temperature does all of it. Truist at 90 degrees is worth about 12%, third best on the board.
Texas at Chicago White Sox | Rate Field | Overcast, 83F | Wind: 9 mph W
Wind out at nine, and the split matters here. Righties pick up close to 16% and lefties about 11%, so pick your side on purpose.
Milwaukee at New York Mets | Citi Field | Overcast, 75F | Wind: 9 mph S
The wind is doing more than the temperature in this one, and it favors righties at 12% over lefties at 8%. Citi still takes its usual cut.
Houston at New York Yankees | Yankee Stadium | Overcast, 77F | Wind: 9 mph S
The air is crossing the field instead of leaving it, so the short porch mostly doesn't come into play. Righties get about 7%, lefties get 2%. Smallest weather edge today.
Kansas City at Toronto | Rogers Centre | Clear, 72F | Wind: 9 mph SE
Roof looks like it stays open on a comfortable 72-degree night. The park and the weather cancel each other out, so grade this one on the arms.
No domes on the main slate. All seven are open air.
HR Calls
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) DK $6,500 | FD $4,000 vs AJ Smith-Shawver
Smith-Shawver has 8.2 innings on the season and has walked 5.49 per nine at a 12.5% clip in them. Small sample, sure, but a guy who can't find the zone falls behind and then has to come into it, and Ohtani is the last hitter on this slate you want to groove one to. He carries a .247 ISO with a 16.7% barrel rate and 57% hard contact, he bats leadoff so there's an extra plate appearance in it, and Truist at 90 degrees is adding 13% to lefty home runs. He's $4,000 on FanDuel where the most expensive hitter on the board is $4,100, so you're paying near the max there. I'd still do it.
Samuel Basallo (BAL) DK $4,000 | FD $2,800 vs Michael McGreevy
McGreevy against lefties: 5.74 K/9, 1.28 HR/9, 15.6% HR/FB and a .431 slugging mark allowed. He doesn't miss bats and he gives up damage in the air. That's the wrong combination in a 92-degree Busch pushing lefty home runs up 18%. Basallo hits cleanup with a .257 ISO and a .263 xISO backing it up, plus 15.3% barrels, so the power is real and not a hot two weeks. Best power per dollar in this section on either site.
Randal Grichuk (CWS) DK $3,100 | FD $2,500 vs MacKenzie Gore
Gore is good, no argument there, but everything he gives up comes from one side: 1.30 HR/9 and 18.8% HR/FB against righties. Grichuk is a .336 ISO bat hitting cleanup with 15.6% barrels and 50% hard contact, and Rate Field is adding 16% to righty power tonight. He costs $3,100 and $2,500, which is close to punt territory on both sites. That's a tag that pays for a stud arm somewhere else on the roster.
Stacks to Target
1. Minnesota vs J.T. Ginn (R) | Implied Total: 5.92 | ROO Score: 6.2/10 | Cash
The Twins are implied for 5.92, which leads the slate by close to a run, and Sacramento is why. Ginn's 3.61 ERA hides an xFIP north of five, and lefties are where it breaks: 5.30 BB/9 against them with 1.11 HR/9 and 16.7% HR/FB, while righties are stuck at a .254 wOBA. Kody Clemens, Trevor Larnach and switch-hitter Josh Bell are the pieces I want most, though the Twins righties hold up fine too at a 111 wRC+ with 44.9% pull. Ginn works into the sixth most nights, so you'd rather the damage land on him than on the 4.79 xFIP bullpen behind him. The whole field will be here. Pay up anyway.
Core pieces: Byron Buxton $6,200 (R), Kody Clemens $5,600 (L), Ryan Jeffers $5,200 (R), Josh Bell $4,700 (S), Trevor Larnach $4,000 (L)
2. Milwaukee vs Robert Stock (R) | Implied Total: 5.04 | ROO Score: 4.7/10 | Cash
Second-highest total on the board and a much cheaper way in than the Twins. Stock has thrown 16.2 innings across four starts with a 6.11 BB/9, a 13.6% walk rate and a 1.73 WHIP, and he's averaging barely four innings an outing, so you're really buying the first two times through the order. Milwaukee is a 110 wRC+ from both sides against righties, their lefties walk 11.5% of the time and their righties strike out in only 18.4% of their trips, which is exactly the profile that punishes a guy who can't throw strikes. My hesitation is the Mets pen at a 3.62 to 3.80 xFIP, and that's the one real obstacle in this game. Get the runs early and you're fine.
Core pieces: Jackson Chourio $5,800 (R), Brice Turang $5,400 (L), Jake Bauers $4,800 (L), Christian Yelich $4,500 (L), William Contreras $4,300 (R)
3. Chicago White Sox vs MacKenzie Gore (L) | Implied Total: 4.38 | ROO Score: 4.1/10 | GPP
Chicago's righties are a different team against lefties: 110 wRC+, .200 ISO, .446 slugging and 22.4% HR/FB. Gore's only weakness is that exact matchup at 1.30 HR/9 and 18.8% HR/FB to righties, and Rate Field is boosting right-handed power 16% tonight. The Sox can send seven or eight righty bats at him, and there's a 4.80 xFIP Texas bullpen waiting if they get through. What sells it is the salaries: Vargas at $5,300 is the only piece over $4,400, and Grichuk, Doyle, Meidroth and Braden Montgomery are all $3,600 or less on DraftKings and $2,900 or less on FanDuel. You can pay all the way up at pitcher and still fit the whole thing.
Core pieces: Miguel Vargas $5,300 (R), Chase Meidroth $3,600 (R), Braden Montgomery $3,600 (S), Brenton Doyle $3,300 (R), Randal Grichuk $3,100 (R)
Pitchers
Dustin May (MIL) vs NYM | $7,300 | CASH
The 4.57 ERA is why he's only $7,300, and it's lying to you. May's FIP is 3.36 and his SIERA is 3.58, and the entire gap is a .321 BABIP sitting next to a 66.1% strand rate, neither of which he controls. He has been excellent against righties at 1.24 BB/9 with a 0.99 WHIP and a .268 wOBA allowed, and the Mets own the lowest implied total on the slate at 3.46. So you're getting a $7,300 arm pointed at the worst offense on the board while the field spends up elsewhere. He's the best value on the pitcher board.
Sean Burke (CWS) vs TEX | $9,000 | CASH
Burke is the chalk and I'm not going to get cute about it. He has 146 innings of a 9.74 K/9 against 2.59 BB/9 with a 1.11 WHIP, and it gets better against righties at 9.76 and 2.14. Texas is second-lowest on the board at 3.62 and has been scoring a bit over two runs a game across the past week. The one flag is a 79.7% strand rate, which is a little rich, and he is throwing in a park adding 13% to home runs tonight. If this start goes badly, it goes badly on one swing.
MacKenzie Gore (TEX) vs CWS | $8,300 | GPP
Gore's 4.28 ERA sits on a 3.56 xFIP with a 72.8% strand rate, so the arm has been better than the record, and 9.98 K/9 at a 26% strikeout rate is the ceiling you're paying for. I covered the problem in the stack above. Righty power is his only real flaw, Chicago will run seven or eight of them out, and the park is adding to that exact swing. So you're buying strikeouts and eating home run risk. That's a tournament trade, not a cash one.
Kyle Bradish (BAL) vs STL | $8,000 | GPP
A 50.6% ground ball rate is the reason to look at him on a 92-degree night, because a ball on the ground doesn't care how hot it is. His 3.71 ERA and 3.92 xFIP agree with each other, so there's no luck to correct in either direction. What you see is what he is. What keeps him out of cash is the 3.91 BB/9. Walks in front of a mistake are how a sinkerballer loses a game in one inning, and St. Louis at 4.25 isn't a soft draw.
Connor Prielipp (MIN) vs ATH | $6,200 | GPP
Every peripheral says buy. A 5.60 ERA on top of a 3.80 xFIP and a 3.45 SIERA, dragged there by a .324 BABIP and a 59.4% strand rate, with 9.75 K/9 the whole way. Then you look at where he's throwing it. Sacramento in this heat, breeze helping, is the worst spot on the board for a fly ball pitcher, and a 44.4% fly ball rate is the wrong shape to bring into it. Play him as a $6,200 dart if you need the salary relief, and don't talk yourself into anything more.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
Randy Dobnak (KC), Negative Regression Candidate
A 1.59 ERA over 45.2 innings will sell you a roster spot before you read another line. Read another line. The xFIP is 5.63, a four-run gap, and it is built on a 91.5% strand rate that is the highest on this board and nowhere near a repeatable skill. He's at 5.77 K/9 with 3.98 BB/9, so he isn't missing bats and he isn't throwing strikes either. A pitcher like that is at the mercy of what order the hits show up in. Toronto isn't a scary offense at a 100.7 top-five wRC+, but they don't have to be to beat a line built like this.
Dustin May (MIL), Positive Regression Candidate
I made most of this case up in the pitcher section, so here is just the part I left out. A .321 BABIP and a 66.1% strand rate against a 3.36 FIP is the cleanest buy-low on the slate, and the 0.65 HR/9 says the contact he gives up is harmless. The fair counterpoint is the platoon split, since lefties have gotten to him at 4.34 BB/9 with a .347 BABIP and a .336 wOBA. The Mets aren't the lineup to punish that. File it for the next time he draws one that is.
Final Thoughts
Cash starts with May. At $7,300 he points you at the lowest implied total on the slate and still leaves room for the Twins, which is the whole build. Burke at $9,000 fits next to him if you're willing to go light in the outfield. Run Minnesota through the middle after that, Buxton and Clemens first and Jeffers third, with Larnach at $4,000 as the piece that makes the salary math work. Basallo at the same DraftKings price is the swap if you would rather buy the Busch heat than the Sacramento heat.
Watch Sacramento before lock. A 97-degree first pitch with the breeze helping is the biggest single input on the slate. A late forecast change would move every call in this article. The other thing worth a look is Houston and Kansas City, where the Yankees and Blue Jays are both handing the ball to an arm who has not logged a start in over a month. Expect a short leash and relievers by the fourth. That changes which side of those games you want, and neither price sheet has caught up to it.
For tournaments the White Sox are where I want to be. Gore's only flaw is right-handed power, Chicago is a 110 wRC+ righty group against lefties, and the park is adding 16% to that swing while the field piles into Sacramento and Queens. Grichuk at $3,100 on DraftKings and $2,500 on FanDuel makes the stack close to free. Prielipp is the arm to pair with it if you want to get truly different. And if you'd rather skip stacking altogether, Ohtani leading off against a guy walking 12.5% of the hitters he faces is the one-off swing.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.