Weather to Watch
Baltimore at Athletics | Sutter Health Park | Overcast, 89F | Wind: 9 mph SW
Best hitting weather anywhere tonight, by a wide margin. 89 degrees with the wind blowing out is 17.5% more home runs, and righties get 18.6% of it.
Philadelphia at Los Angeles Angels | Angel Stadium | Clear, 90F | Wind: 8 mph SW
90 degrees in Anaheim, wind out, 13.4% more home runs. It splits about evenly between lefties and righties. Late game, so the heat holds.
Colorado at Atlanta | Truist Park | Clear, 89F | Wind: 3 mph S
Only 3 mph of wind, so this is all temperature. Truist comes out at 13.3%, righties 14% and lefties 12.9%.
Boston at New York Yankees | Yankee Stadium | Clear, 79F | Wind: 5 mph W
79 and calm. 7.4% both ways, which in this park is still plenty.
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota | Target Field | Overcast, 82F | Wind: 5 mph SSW
Wind is crossing, not carrying, so the 82 degrees does the work. Righties 8%, lefties 6.3%.
Texas at Milwaukee | American Family Field | Clear, 81F | Wind: 7 mph SW
Roof should be open. 6.1% overall and 6.9% for righties. Worth knowing, not worth building around.
Arizona at San Francisco | Oracle Park | Clear, 62F | Wind: 16 mph WNW
16 mph is the strongest wind tonight and it's blowing out. That's the only thing making Oracle playable. 62 degrees takes some of it back. Lefties 7.9%, righties 3.8%.
Houston at New York Mets | Citi Field | Clear, 78F | Wind: 4 mph W
4 mph crosswind is almost nothing. Lefties 6.7%, righties 3.5%.
Pittsburgh at St. Louis | Busch Stadium | Clear, 83F | Wind: 5 mph NE
Wind's in at 5 mph and 83 degrees offsets most of that. Nets out to 5%.
Seattle at Toronto | Rogers Centre | Clear, 67F | Wind: 4 mph SE
Roof should be open at 67 degrees. Air plays down slightly, negative 2.6%. This one's about the pitching.
Kansas City at Cleveland | Progressive Field | Clear, 72F | Wind: 6 mph NNE
Only park tonight where the conditions hurt, and only by 3%. Doesn't change anything.
Tampa Bay and San Diego play under the roof at the Trop. No forecast to check there.
Model Bets
Los Angeles Angels ML (+118) | Philadelphia at Los Angeles Angels | Edge: +3.5%
The simulation has the Angels at 47.4% to win outright while the market sits at 43.9%. Painter is the reason. He's carrying a 6.06 ERA with a 6.06 xFIP and 1.66 HR/9 into a park that's adding 13.4% tonight, and the Angels only need to win a slugfest, not a pitchers duel.
Colorado +1.5 (-112) | Colorado at Atlanta | Edge: +2.7%
53.1% against a market at 50.4%. Fair warning, this one argues with the Atlanta stack I get to below. I want those Braves bats and I also think Colorado stays within the number. Holmes is the bridge between those two ideas, since a 6.09 xFIP means the Braves probably don't get a clean shutdown game out of him.
Under 7.5 (-102) | Pittsburgh at St. Louis | Edge: +2.5%
50.6% to the market's 48.2%. Busch has the wind blowing in, Jared Jones has the best strikeout stuff of any cheap arm tonight, and neither offense is implied for four runs. Not complicated.
These come off the game simulation and are posted for tracking only. Nothing here is a wagering recommendation.
HR Calls
Junior Caminero (TB) DK $6,500 | FD $3,600 vs Casey Mize
Mize looks fine on the season line. Split it and he's two pitchers. Against righties: 1.43 HR/9, 19.4% HR/FB, 41.4% hard contact. Caminero has the fastest bat on the slate at 77.6 mph, a .264 ISO, 13.1% barrels, and he pulls 46.9% of his contact. He costs the most in this section on both sites. Pay it.
Coby Mayo (BAL) DK $4,000 | FD $2,700 vs Jacob Lopez
DraftKings missed on this price. Mayo hits cleanup with a .420 ISO, a 24.4% barrel rate, 52.6% hard contact, and he pulls more than half of what he hits. Lopez walks 4.55 righties per nine. Pitchers who walk that many are behind in counts all night, and then they have to throw a strike, which is how righties have put 17.3% of their fly balls off him over the wall. Now add the best home run weather on the board. His $2,700 on FanDuel is close to the minimum in a pool that tops out at $4,100.
Mike Yastrzemski (ATL) DK $2,800 | FD $2,600 vs Tomoyuki Sugano
Sugano's split against lefties is the worst thing on this slate. .590 slugging, 2.59 HR/9, one in four of their fly balls gone. He strikes out 5.18 per nine that way, so lefties are going to put the ball in play. Yastrzemski hits seventh, pulls 48.4% of his contact, and Truist is adding 12.9% for lefties. At $2,800 he only has to hit one.
Stacks to Target
1. Atlanta vs Tomoyuki Sugano (R) | Implied Total: 6.00 | ROO Score: 6.4/10 | Cash
Atlanta leads the slate at six runs and nobody else is close. Sugano is fine against righties at a .460 slugging mark, but lefties have destroyed him: .274/.325/.590 with 2.59 HR/9 and 25.3% HR/FB. He can't strike anybody out either. Atlanta's lefties are a 113 wRC+ against right-handers with a .186 ISO and 43% hard contact. Their righties are an 85, so build this one side only. Olson hits third, Baldwin leads off, Harris is fifth, and Yastrzemski gets you the same matchup at $2,800. Colorado's pen is a 4.77 xFIP against lefties, so it doesn't get better late. Everybody's going to be on this. Be on it anyway.
Core pieces: Matt Olson $5,300 (L), Drake Baldwin $4,800 (L), Michael Harris $4,300 (L), Ozzie Albies $4,100 (S), Mike Yastrzemski $2,800 (L)
2. Baltimore vs Jacob Lopez (L) | Implied Total: 5.37 | ROO Score: 5.3/10 | GPP
Sacramento is already a home run park. Add 89 degrees and a wind blowing out. Lopez handles lefties at a .271 wOBA, but righties have hit .271/.356/.468 off him with 1.74 HR/9 and 17.3% HR/FB behind a 5.09 xFIP. Baltimore's righties are a 107 wRC+ against lefties with 46.4% hard contact, the highest hard-hit rate of any stack here, and the order lines up with Alonso second, Mayo fourth and Encarnacion-Strand fifth. The Athletics pen is a 4.49 xFIP against righties, so the middle innings don't save them. Almost the same total as Atlanta with fewer people on it. That's the trade.
Core pieces: Pete Alonso $6,200 (R), Christian Encarnacion-Strand $5,100 (R), Coby Mayo $4,000 (R), Christian Franklin $3,000 (R), Carlos Narvaez $2,700 (R)
3. Milwaukee vs Cody Bradford (L) | Implied Total: 4.60 | ROO Score: 4.6/10 | Cash
Third-best number tonight and a lot cheaper to get to. Bradford has four starts and 20.2 innings this year with a 5.79 K/9 and a 4.87 xFIP. He can't strike anybody out, so he has to let them hit it. Milwaukee's top five are a 125.9 wRC+, the best group on the slate, and their righties handle left-handers at a 97 wRC+ with 40.2% hard contact and only a 20.3% strikeout rate. Chourio leads off, Contreras hits third, and Vaughn and Sanchez sit between $3,600 and $3,900. Texas relievers are weak against righties too. You can buy a top-three offense here and still pay up at pitcher.
Core pieces: Jackson Chourio $5,700 (R), William Contreras $4,200 (R), Gary Sanchez $3,900 (R), Andrew Vaughn $3,600 (R), Joey Ortiz $3,000 (R)
Pitchers
Dylan Cease (TOR) vs SEA | DK $11,500 | FD $10,900 | CASH
There's no argument against him. 2.37 ERA, 2.39 FIP, 2.56 xFIP, 13.05 K/9, 36.1% strikeout rate. The ERA and the peripherals match, so nothing here is going to correct. Seattle is implied for 2.87, lowest on the slate, and Rogers Centre plays down tonight. Lefties are hitting .161 with a .249 wOBA against him. He'll be chalk. Play him.
Cam Schlittler (NYY) vs BOS | DK $10,700 | FD $10,300 | CASH
A 30.8% strikeout rate against a 5.9% walk rate puts him with the best arms in the league. That's why I'm fine here even though the 81.6% strand rate is high and some of it comes back. Boston is at 3.07, second-lowest tonight, and righties are hitting .195 off him with a 0.91 WHIP. The park is the one problem. Yankee Stadium is up 7.4% today and lefties are where he gets hurt.
Jared Jones (PIT) vs STL | DK $6,300 | FD $7,600 | CASH
Cheapest good arm on the board. His 4.76 ERA covers a 3.52 xFIP and a 3.19 SIERA. All of that distance is a 69.8% strand rate, and no starter tonight has one worse. He's at 10.19 K/9 with a 26.6% strikeout rate. St. Louis is implied for 3.63 and Busch has the wind blowing in. The catch is 50% hard contact allowed and 4.4 innings a start over his last five. You're buying strikeouts, just not many innings of them. Note the price gap: he's the cheap arm on DraftKings at $6,300 but $7,600 on FanDuel, where the pitcher board is squeezed and Cease only costs $10,900. On FanDuel just pay up for Cease.
Reid Detmers (LAA) vs PHI | DK $8,800 | FD $9,500 | GPP
The ERA is worse than he's pitched. A 3.62 ERA over a 3.23 FIP and a 2.75 SIERA, with a 71.6% strand rate doing most of the damage. Against righties, which is most of what Philadelphia sends up, he's allowed a .271 wOBA with 10.82 K/9 and a 3.13 xFIP. The park is why he isn't a cash play. 90 degrees in Anaheim with the wind out is 13.4%, and Philadelphia is implied for 4.49. Strikeouts in a hitter's park against a good lineup is a tournament play.
Christian Scott (NYM) vs HOU | DK $7,900 | FD $8,500 | GPP
Nobody in this price range misses more bats. 11.21 K/9, a 28.5% strikeout rate, and a .312 BABIP that says the 3.74 ERA is worse than he's been. Two problems. Houston is implied for 4.33, top five tonight, and he walks 3.94 per nine, which puts runners on in front of a lineup that makes you pay for it. Citi only helps him against righties, at 3.5%. He'll be lightly rostered and the strikeouts are real.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
Grant Holmes (ATL), Negative Regression Candidate
The 3.65 ERA is not real. His xFIP is 6.09, almost two and a half runs higher, and it's propped up by a .254 BABIP and an 82.2% strand rate. Neither of those holds. He sits at 7.31 K/9 with 3.94 BB/9. No strikeouts, no command, and 16.7% of his fly balls are already leaving. The problem is who he draws. Colorado is implied for 3.00 and Truist is a 106 park factor for the righties they'll run out there. He's going to get hit eventually. Probably not today.
Dean Kremer (MIN), Positive Regression Candidate
A 5.26 ERA means nobody plays him. Look underneath it. A 4.02 xFIP, a 3.38 SIERA, and a 33.3% HR/FB rate that makes no sense sitting next to a .243 BABIP and a 66.8% strand rate. He's been unlucky in every direction at once, and the 24.3% strikeout rate says the arm is fine. Tonight isn't the spot, though. Chicago is implied for 4.09 and Target Field is up 8% for righties. Write him down for the next one.
Final Thoughts
Start with Cease. He costs $11,500 and he's facing the quietest lineup tonight. Jones at $6,300 is how you pay for that. Braves lefties fill the rest of the middle: Olson, Baldwin, Harris. Yastrzemski at $2,800 makes the salary fit. Chourio at $5,700 if you want an outfielder from a different game.
Check Sacramento again before lock. The 9 mph wind and 89 degrees is why Baltimore is implied for 5.37, and if that forecast moves, both sides of the game move with it. One other thing: Arizona's starter hasn't pitched in three weeks, so their pen is probably in the game by the fifth. That changes what the Giants side is worth.
Baltimore is my tournament team. Biggest total tonight, a ballpark and a forecast that both help righties, and it should draw fewer rosters than Atlanta. Mayo at $4,000 and Encarnacion-Strand at $5,100 first, then Alonso if the salary works. Use Detmers if you want a different pitcher too. If you'd rather play one bat than a stack, take Caminero.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.