Weather to Watch
Colorado at Atlanta | Truist Park | Overcast, 84F | Wind: 4 mph ESE
Truist is where the ceiling lives tonight. Atlanta sits at 5.5 runs, biggest number on the board, and the air is quiet enough that nothing pushes back on the park factor. Righties collect about 7%, lefties around 6%.
Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs | Wrigley Field | Overcast, 83F | Wind: 10 mph SW
This is the loudest weather report today. 10 mph blowing out to right adds 27% to home runs. Both offenses share it. If you were on the fence about Wrigley bats, the fence is gone.
Kansas City at Cleveland | Progressive Field | Overcast, 84F | Wind: 8 mph S
Wind's off the front side and it is 84 degrees. Nets to about a 6% boost overall. Not enough to build around, plenty to lean on.
Pittsburgh at St. Louis | Busch Stadium | Overcast, 87F | Wind: 9 mph S
Warmest game outside of the west coast, and the wind's cooperating. Righties collect roughly 6%, lefties about the same. Busch usually plays down on fly balls. Tonight it doesn't.
Miami at Washington | Nationals Park | Clear, 86F | Wind: 4 mph SE
86 and calm. The air isn't doing much on its own, the heat carries it. 8% for righties, a touch less for lefties. Meaningful, not massive.
Houston at New York Mets | Citi Field | Clear, 79F | Wind: 5 mph WNW
Crossbreeze, so this is a temperature story. 79 degrees and clear gives you about a 4% nudge. Nothing that changes a build.
Boston at New York Yankees | Yankee Stadium | Clear, 76F | Wind: 8 mph NW
Afternoon start in the Bronx, 76 degrees and a wind that's crossing more than helping. 4% to 5% both ways, and this park will still play up on its own.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit | Comerica Park | Overcast, 80F | Wind: 10 mph S
80 degrees with the wind up the field. Comerica grades neutral tonight, which for this park is a win.
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota | Target Field | Partly Cloudy, 75F | Wind: 11 mph SE
75 with a crosswind. Roughly neutral overall. Call it flat and move on.
Seattle at Toronto | Rogers Centre | Overcast, 77F | Wind: 13 mph SSW
Roof projects open at 77. Modest boost, maybe 5% to 6% for lefties. This is one of the reasons the simulation is on the Over here.
Arizona at San Francisco | Oracle Park | Clear, 70F | Wind: 16 mph WNW
16 mph blowing toward right-center is the strongest push on the slate. Oracle turns from a graveyard into a slightly friendly park for left-handed power. Everything else on this game plays down. The wind is the whole story.
One dome game tonight, San Diego at Tampa Bay. No forecast to read, only the park.
Model Bets
Over 7.5 (-102) | Seattle at Toronto | Edge: +2.7%
The simulation puts this total at 53.1% to go over against a market number of 50.4%. Rogers Centre projects roof-open at 77 with a 13 mph wind out, so both dugouts get a small carry the market didn't price in. Neither starter is a strikeout monster tonight and that's the crux of it.
These come off the game simulation and are posted for tracking only. Nothing here is a wagering recommendation.
HR Calls
Matt Olson (ATL) DK $5,200 | FD $4,000 vs Ryan Feltner
Feltner has coughed up 1.76 HR/9 on the year and a 6.11 ERA, but the real damage is directional. 16.1% of the fly balls hit against him have cleared a wall, and his xFIP is a run better than his ERA. So don't wait for regression. The walls have been coming down all year. Olson's the pull-side lefty who lines up cleanest to it. He's my top hitter on the whole card and $5,200 is not a value price, it's an expensive bat. Play him anyway. On FanDuel he's $4,000 in a pool that tops out at $4,100, so if you're building over there, the ceiling of the hitter salary structure buys you exactly Olson at Truist against a park-and-weather boost. Pay it.
Jo Adell (CLE) DK $4,300 | FD $3,000 vs Daniel Lynch IV
Lynch is left-handed and Adell is right-handed, which is the platoon door in this game. Lynch's stuff plays down against righties, and Progressive is bumping HRs 6% tonight. Adell hits fourth. He's got the highest ceiling in his salary tier, and the projected ownership is going to feel light by the time everyone lands on the same ATL and CHC bats. DraftKings priced him for a matchup he doesn't have to make excuses for. FD $3,000 is the same idea, cheap for the shape of the spot.
Hector Rodriguez (CIN) DK $2,900 | FD $2,500 vs Kevin Gausman
This is the leverage play and it's built out of the ballpark, not the batter. Wrigley with 10 mph blowing out adds 27% to home runs. Rodriguez leads off, he's a lefty, Gausman's xFIP is a run under his ERA and his HR/FB is already 8%, which means he doesn't need a mistake pitch, he needs a park. He's got the park. At $2,900 you're not risking anything if it doesn't come through, and if it does you probably win the tournament. His $2,500 FD tag is basically the minimum on that board. Worth some exposure.
Stacks to Target
1. Atlanta vs Ryan Feltner (R) | Implied Total: 5.5 | ROO Score: 6.5/10 | Cash
Atlanta leads the slate by close to a run and nobody else is close. Feltner is the reason. His xFIP is 4.88, HR/9 is 1.76, and his LOB rate has cratered to 65%, which means the runners he gives up have been scoring at a rate no starter can sustain. Truist bumps righties 6% and lefties around 6% too, so the platoon direction doesn't really change the math. Baldwin leads off as a lefty, Acuna hits second, then Olson and Harris on the left side too, with Riley batting eighth as a righty. The Colorado bullpen isn't pretty either, so if Feltner is short you get the pen for the middle. Everyone will be here. Show up anyway.
Core pieces: Drake Baldwin $4,800 (L), Ronald Acuna $5,900 (R), Matt Olson $5,200 (L), Michael Harris $4,400 (L), Ozzie Albies $4,100 (S)
2. Chicago Cubs vs Andrew Abbott (L) | Implied Total: 4.5 | ROO Score: 5.5/10 | GPP
The reason I've got this ahead of Minnesota is the ballpark. Wrigley is adding 27% on home runs tonight while Target Field is closer to flat. Abbott's a lefty walking 4.22 hitters per nine, and the Cubs have a right-handed heart of the order that will feast on that split. Suzuki, Bregman, and Hoerner all bat right and all handle southpaws. Pete Crow-Armstrong is the lefty exception, and even he owns the leverage price at $6,900. This is where you spread out from the Braves chalk without giving up the projected ceiling. Cincinnati's bullpen isn't a wall either. My concern is Abbott's ability to steal a strikeout when he needs one. He'll rack up whiffs when he has to. That's why it's a tournament build, not a cash lock.
Core pieces: Pete Crow-Armstrong $6,900 (L), Alex Bregman $5,900 (R), Seiya Suzuki $5,700 (R), Nico Hoerner $4,500 (R), Michael Busch $4,300 (L)
3. Minnesota vs Erick Fedde (R) | Implied Total: 4.5 | ROO Score: 5.1/10 | Cash
Fedde is making his first start back from an absence of about four weeks, and everything about that is bad news for him. His xFIP is 6.68, his ERA sits at 4.22 and is doing a lot of hiding, the walk rate has crept over 3 per nine, and he coughs up 1.69 HR/9. Even if the Twins only see him twice through the order, the White Sox bullpen behind him ranks near the bottom of the sport. Minnesota is righty heavy at the top: Keaschall, Buxton, Jeffers, then Clemens as the lefty in the five hole. Byron Buxton is the piece I'm building around at $5,800. He's crushing lefties this year and Fedde has been getting picked on to that side. This is the second-safest cash stack behind Atlanta.
Core pieces: Byron Buxton $5,800 (R), Kody Clemens $5,400 (L), Ryan Jeffers $4,900 (R), Josh Bell $4,400 (S), Luke Keaschall $4,200 (R)
Pitchers
Blake Snell (LAD) vs DET | DK $11,000 | FD $10,600 | CASH
Detroit is implied for 2.5 runs, which is the lowest team total on the board, and Snell is Snell. A 2.57 ERA on the year with an 11.14 K/9 and nothing behind the surface line that says regression. He'll be popular. He should be. If you're chasing GPP leverage he isn't your guy, but for the cash build he's the anchor, and his $11,000 on DraftKings is actually cheaper relative to the pool than his $10,600 on FanDuel once you notice that FanDuel's pitcher salaries only stretch to about $10,900 at the top. On DK the spread is wider, so paying up for him leaves less for bats. On FD paying up for him leaves nothing.
Cade Cavalli (WSH) vs MIA | DK $9,500 | FD $10,500 | CASH
This is the arm I like more than the price says I should. Cavalli sits at a 3.22 ERA and here's the thing: his SIERA is 2.84 and his xFIP is 3.25, so the surface line matches the underlying. Miami is implied for 3.5 and their offense has been quiet against right-handed pitching all season. Cavalli is a 10.26 K/9 arm with a 1.03 HR/9. He'll draw chalk at a 21.6% projected clip, but the shape of the matchup is honest. Note the salary flip on FanDuel: he's $10,500 there, more expensive than Snell. That's the compressed FD pitcher board doing its thing.
Nolan McLean (NYM) vs HOU | DK $10,500 | FD $9,600 | CASH
Houston is implied for 3.5 and Cristian Javier is the reason it isn't lower. Javier's ERA is 6.51, his xFIP is 7.92, and he's how the Mets stay ahead in that game. McLean brings a 3.22 ERA with a 10.20 K/9 and a 3.52 xFIP that says the ERA is real. He's your third cash arm if you spread the build across three price points, and he's cheaper than Snell and Cavalli on FanDuel at $9,600.
Kevin Gausman (CHC) vs CIN | DK $8,900 | FD $8,500 | GPP
This one's a buy-low with a caveat, and the caveat is that I'm asking you to buy a starter into 27% home run weather. Gausman's ERA is 4.38 and his xFIP is 3.39, close to a full run of difference sitting on a .313 BABIP and a 67.6% LOB. He's been unlucky in ways that add up to more runs than he's actually surrendered. If you can eat the volatility of the ballpark tonight, the strikeouts show up. That's why it's a GPP tag, not cash.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
Foster Griffin (CLE), Negative Regression Candidate
Griffin's 3.20 ERA is real on the surface and unreal underneath. His HR/FB rate is 18.1%, which is nearly double the league average, and his LOB is 80.7%. Both of those are due to give back. You cannot keep the wall a ceiling at those rates. His K/9 is a fine 8.15 and the xFIP of 3.70 says the arm itself is OK, but the ERA number is thinner than it looks. Not tonight against Kansas City necessarily. Later.
Walker Buehler (SD), Positive Regression Candidate
Buehler's ERA is 4.64 and his xFIP is 4.05, with a BABIP of .297 and a 71% LOB. That's not enough to make him a cash play, the underlying is OK not great, but there's some runway between where the market prices him and where the arm actually is. He starts tonight against Tampa Bay, a 3.5-implied offense in a dome. Not the play here either, but track him.
Final Thoughts
Snell at $11,000 gets you the safest arm at the top of a cash build, and Braves lefties fill the salary from Baldwin down to Yastrzemski if you need the salary save. Cavalli or McLean is the second cash pitcher depending on which lineup shape you like: Cavalli if you want the K upside from a rested arm against a bad lineup, McLean if you want the FD price. Buxton at $5,800 is the expensive bat that fits both games I want and stretches into the Minnesota half of the build.
Wind is the angle today. Wrigley at 10 mph out and Truist adding 6% both ways are the two spots the salary should chase. If the Rogers Centre roof stays closed instead of opening as forecast, the Over on the SEA and TOR game gets thinner but doesn't disappear.
Cincinnati is the tournament sneak. Elly De La Cruz and Hector Rodriguez at the top of that order in Wrigley with a 27% weather boost is the kind of low-owned build that saves a slate when Atlanta's chalk doesn't quite hit. Pair it with the Cubs stack from the other dugout if you're committing to the game itself.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.