Weather to Watch
Pittsburgh at St. Louis | Busch Stadium | Clear, 92F | Wind: 9 mph S
Busch at 92 degrees is the best hitting environment on the card, and it isn't close. The heat alone is worth about 13% on home runs and the wind adds another couple, righties getting the bigger cut at roughly 18%.
Colorado at Atlanta | Truist Park | Clear, 88F | Wind: 7 mph ESE
Clear and 88 with a breeze crossing the field, so the heat is the entire story here. Nets to about 9%, and righties do a little better than lefties here, which matters less than it sounds when the whole Atlanta order can leave the yard.
Texas at Milwaukee | American Family Field | Mostly Clear, 85F | Wind: 17 mph SSW
They should have the roof pulled back at 85 degrees, and that 17 mph wind is the strongest anywhere today. It's crossing rather than carrying, so you get about 7% on homers and a little extra on doubles instead of a fireworks show.
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota | Target Field | Clear, 84F | Wind: 8 mph E
Warm enough to matter, and the wind's blowing straight in from center, which cancels most of the heat. Call it a 4% bump and don't build a stack on the forecast.
Boston at New York Yankees | Yankee Stadium | Overcast, 79F | Wind: 9 mph SSW
79 and grey in the Bronx with the wind cutting across. Righties pick up about 11%, lefties closer to 6%, and the short porch will do its usual work.
Kansas City at Cleveland | Progressive Field | Overcast, 79F | Wind: 5 mph W
Almost no wind and 79 degrees. Lefties get about 6%, righties under 3%. It's real but small, and I wouldn't move off a bat because of it.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit | Comerica Park | Partly Cloudy, 77F | Wind: 7 mph SSW
Comerica grades out flat today and there's a 27% shot at rain, which is the only thing here worth a second look before lock.
Seattle at Toronto | Rogers Centre | Overcast, 70F | Wind: 6 mph S
Coolest game anywhere today, 70 degrees, roof expected open, one-in-four odds of rain. Weather grades neutral, so this game comes down to the arm on the mound.
The Padres and Rays are the lone indoor game. At the Trop you read a park factor and nothing else.
Model Bets
Colorado +1.5 (-107) | Colorado at Atlanta | Edge: +3.1%
Market says the Rockies cover 49.5% of the time and the simulation says 52.5%, because Tyler Mahle is not an ace and the Braves bullpen has to protect whatever he leaves. I'm stacking Atlanta below, so read this as a hedge on the margin rather than a fade of the offense.
Under 8.5 (-101) | Chicago White Sox at Minnesota | Edge: +2.7%
Market puts the under at 48.1% and the simulation gets to 50.7%. The wind's blowing in at Target Field and neither Anthony Kay nor Zebby Matthews walks enough hitters to hand out free traffic.
Under 8.5 (-110) | Texas at Milwaukee | Edge: +2.5%
The market splits this one right down the middle at 50%; the simulation gets to 52.5% on the under. This one contradicts the Milwaukee stack further down, and I'd rather say that out loud: the simulation likes the game total staying quiet while I like one side of it scoring.
These come off the game simulation and are posted for tracking only. Nothing here is a wagering recommendation.
HR Calls
Munetaka Murakami (CWS) DK $5,600 | FD $3,800 vs Zebby Matthews
Nobody's paying attention to the White Sox in late August and that's the whole reason this one is available. Murakami: .324 ISO, 21.1% barrel rate, 57.1% hard contact. Every one of those is a top-shelf mark. Left-handed bats have taken Matthews deep at a 1.69 HR/9 clip with a 22.2% HR/FB rate, and he walks 3.71 per nine to that side, which means he's behind in counts and reaching for a strike more than a starter should. That's the at-bat where Murakami does his damage.
Drake Baldwin (ATL) DK $4,700 | FD $3,500 vs Mason Adams
Leading off for the highest-implied offense on the board is a good place to start. Baldwin's got a .197 ISO and a 15.7% barrel rate with 53.9% hard contact, and he's hitting first, so he gets the extra plate appearance the rest of the order doesn't. Mason Adams has four innings on his big league ledger and every one of the walks came against left-handed hitters. I'm not going to pretend four innings tells us much, and the Colorado bullpen behind him owns a 5.04 xFIP, so Atlanta keeps hitting into a soft spot after he leaves.
Ryan Vilade (TB) DK $3,200 | FD $2,500 vs Robbie Ray
This is the cheap one, and he's cheap on both boards: $3,200 on DraftKings, $2,500 on FanDuel, where the floor is $2,000 and the ceiling is $4,300. Vilade's .238 ISO is fine for the price and he hits second. The case is really about Ray, who walks 4.66 right-handed hitters per nine and surrenders 1.55 HR/9 to that side with a 15.8% HR/FB. When a lefty's command goes that sideways against righties, the fastball he throws to get back in the count is the one that leaves.
Stacks to Target
1. Atlanta vs Mason Adams (R) | Implied Total: 5.74 | ROO Score: 5.9/10 | Cash
Nothing else on this board is priced for six runs. Mason Adams is making one of his first big league starts with four innings of major league work behind him, and while I won't build a case off a sample that small, the market has already decided what it thinks. Atlanta's left-handed hitters carry a 114 wRC+ against right-handed pitching with a .187 ISO and a 19.5% HR/FB, and Baldwin, Olson, and Harris all bat from that side at the top and middle. The Colorado bullpen xFIP is 5.04, so pulling Adams early solves nothing for them. The field is going to be here in numbers and I'm fine with that.
Core pieces: Drake Baldwin $4,700 (L), Ronald Acuna $5,900 (R), Matt Olson $5,000 (L), Michael Harris $4,400 (L), Ozzie Albies $4,100 (S)
2. Milwaukee vs Kumar Rocker (R) | Implied Total: 5.10 | ROO Score: 4.9/10 | Cash
Rocker's 4.42 ERA is the friendliest number in his profile and it's hiding a 5.37 xFIP underneath. Against lefties he's worse in every direction that matters: 4.15 BB/9, 1.56 HR/9, a 19.7% HR/FB and a .364 wOBA allowed. Milwaukee's left-handed bats run a 112 wRC+ versus righties and walk in 11.5% of their trips, which is exactly the profile that punishes a starter who can't find the zone. Turang, Yelich, Bauers, and Mitchell all hit from that side. Texas relievers carry a 4.58 xFIP, so getting Rocker out of the game solves very little for them. I trust the floor here almost as much as Atlanta's, and fewer people will be on it.
Core pieces: Jackson Chourio $6,100 (R), Brice Turang $5,900 (L), Christian Yelich $4,900 (L), William Contreras $4,600 (R), Jake Bauers $4,300 (L)
3. Seattle vs Max Scherzer (R) | Implied Total: 4.49 | ROO Score: 4.6/10 | GPP
It's strange to write this about a future Hall of Famer, but Scherzer has nothing left against left-handed hitters. Against lefties: 6.07 BB/9, 2.12 HR/9, a 6.28 xFIP and a .391 wOBA allowed. His overall fly ball rate is 55.4% and his HR/FB has climbed to 19.4%, which is where a starter ends up once the stuff stops missing bats. Naylor, Canzone, Crawford, and Young all bat left, and Raleigh switches over to that side too. Behind him, Toronto's relievers post a 5.76 xFIP, the worst bullpen mark on this slate. Rogers Centre grades neutral today, so the matchup is the entire reason to be here, and it'll cost you far less ownership than Atlanta.
Core pieces: Randy Arozarena $4,700 (R), Cal Raleigh $4,400 (S), Julio Rodriguez $4,300 (R), Dominic Canzone $3,400 (L), Josh Naylor $3,100 (L)
Pitchers
Tyler Glasnow (LAD) vs DET | DK $10,300 | FD $10,400 | CASH
Nobody expects the Tigers to score today, 2.91 runs implied, and Glasnow strikes out a third of the hitters he faces. That's the whole argument and I can't build a case against it. He's at an 11.40 K/9 with a 2.65 BB/9 and a 2.61 xFIP that sits under his 3.05 ERA, so there's no mirage propping up the surface line. He'll be the most-rostered arm on the slate by a wide margin. His $10,400 FanDuel tag is the very top of that pitcher board, so rostering him there leaves the rest of your lineup on scraps. DraftKings gives you a wider price sheet and $10,300 still fits. Pay it on DK, think twice on FD.
Parker Messick (CLE) vs KC | DK $9,700 | FD $10,100 | CASH
The Royals are down for 2.79 runs, which is the second-quietest offense today, and Messick has been the more consistent arm all season even if he draws less attention. A 1.01 WHIP with a 9.06 K/9 and a 2.38 BB/9 means he isn't handing out traffic, and his 3.01 xFIP is close enough to the 2.50 ERA that I trust the shape. Kansas City is a righty-leaning lineup and Messick's xFIP against right-handed hitters is 2.88, better than his mark against lefties. Plenty of people will be on him. That's fine, he's earned it.
Tyler Mahle (ATL) vs COL | DK $7,800 | FD $8,700 | CASH
No offense on this card is priced lower than Colorado at 2.76 runs, and Mahle costs $2,500 less than Glasnow. His 4.42 ERA is uglier than the arm has been: the xFIP sits at 3.94 and a .305 BABIP has been doing the extra damage. The catch is his split, because he's given up 1.44 HR/9 and walked 4.32 per nine against right-handed bats, and Colorado runs Goodman and the righties at him in a park playing up 9% on homers. I'd call it the price you pay to fit a stack. He's the discount that makes the rest of the roster work.
Ranger Suarez (BOS) vs NYY | DK $8,800 | FD $8,300 | GPP
Suarez has been very good all year and hardly anyone will roster him. He's allowed 0.53 HR/9 across the season, which is the lowest mark among the arms I'd consider today, and against right-handed hitters it drops to 0.41 with a 6.6% HR/FB. That travels well into Yankee Stadium, where the short porch punishes lefties who leave the ball up and Suarez mostly doesn't. New York is implied for 3.75. The ballpark keeps this a tournament play rather than a cash lock, and the light field is the payoff for the risk.
Matthew Liberatore (STL) vs PIT | DK $6,200 | FD $8,000 | GPP
His ERA is 5.44 and I'm recommending him anyway. The xFIP is 3.94 against a .339 BABIP, and he's stranded only 68.6% of his baserunners, so he's pitched better than the runs on his line. He also strikes out 9.21 per nine, which is what you need from a $6,200 arm. The problem is the ballpark. Busch is 92 degrees today with the biggest home run bump on the slate, and Liberatore already gives up 1.60 HR/9. That's why he's tagged for tournaments and nowhere near a cash build, and it's also why he's the lowest-rostered arm I'm writing up. Note the FanDuel flip too: he's $8,000 there against $6,200 on DraftKings, so the discount only exists on one site.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
Robbie Ray (SD), Negative Regression Candidate
Ray's 3.37 ERA is the best kind of lie. His xFIP is 4.99, his BABIP is .260, and he's stranding 79.5% of the runners he puts on, which no pitcher sustains while walking 4.49 hitters per nine. He's also giving up fly balls on 49.1% of contact. Put those together and you have a starter whose ERA is running a run and a half under what the underlying skills earn. Tampa Bay is the offense on the right end of it today, and it's why I like a cheap Rays bat.
Dustin May (MIL), Positive Regression Candidate
May's 4.57 ERA has almost nothing to do with how he's pitched. The xFIP is 3.77, the BABIP is .320, and only 66.1% of his baserunners have been stranded, which is a bottom-of-the-league mark that tends to correct on its own. His 0.65 HR/9 says he isn't giving up the damage that his ERA implies. He faces Texas today, an offense implied for 3.40, and I wouldn't be shocked if this is the start where the numbers finally line up.
Final Thoughts
Cash pitching starts with Glasnow against a Detroit lineup nobody expects to score, and I'd put Messick next to him if you can fit both, or Mahle at $7,800 if you'd rather spend on bats. The Atlanta stack is where that money goes: Baldwin leading off at $4,700, Olson at $5,000, Harris at $4,400, and Sean Murphy at $2,000 in the nine hole if you need to squeeze the last dollar. Murphy at that price is the salary save that makes a two-ace build legal.
Watch Busch before lock. It's 92 degrees in St. Louis with the largest home run boost of the day, and if you want more exposure to that game, Bryan Reynolds and Esmerlyn Valdez sit at the top of the Pittsburgh order against a starter who has given up a lot of hard contact. The other pre-lock item is Detroit, where there's a 27% chance of rain and a delay would put Glasnow's workload in question.
Tournament leverage lives in Toronto. Seattle against Scherzer is the softest matchup on the board and it will go overlooked next to Atlanta, so a five-man Mariners stack with Naylor and Canzone as the cheap left-handed pieces gets you a different lineup than most of the room. Murakami is the other one I'd reach for, a legitimate power bat on a team nobody's watching. If you want to differentiate without abandoning the chalk, run Atlanta but swap the middle for Albies and Yastrzemski instead of the obvious two.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.