Weather to Watch
Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs | Wrigley Field | Partly Cloudy, 88F | Wind: 10 mph SW
Ten mph blowing out at 88 degrees works out to about a 30% home run boost, with lefty bats getting a little more of it than righties. Every fly ball in this game has help, and it's not subtle.
Detroit at Minnesota | Target Field | Clear, 90F | Wind: 6 mph WNW
Ninety degrees with a modest breeze headed out, call it 14% extra on homers. The warm air is doing most of the work here.
Baltimore at Colorado | Coors Field | Overcast, 81F | Wind: 16 mph W
The 16 mph crosswind is the strongest wind anywhere tonight, and at altitude it tilts toward the lefty pull side, roughly 12% for lefties against under 3% for righties. There's a one-in-six rain chance, so peek at the radar before lock.
New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels | Angel Stadium | Clear, 79F | Wind: 8 mph SW
A soft 8 mph pushing out on a clear night. Call it a small nudge, maybe 7%, and nothing you build around.
Texas, Houston, and Arizona all project to have the roof shut, so those three games are pure ballpark reads.
Model Bets
Athletics +1.5 (-112) | Athletics at Texas | Edge: +3.9%
The simulation has the Athletics staying inside the run line 54.4% of the time while the market prices it at 50.6%. Jacob deGrom has been handing games to the bullpen after roughly four innings across his last five starts, and short outings in a 7.5-total game keep the margin tight.
Los Angeles Angels +1.5 (-143) | New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels | Edge: +2.7%
New York starts Elmer Rodriguez, who walks more than five per nine, and free baserunners are how a quiet Angels lineup hangs around all night. The simulation gets the Angels covering 59% of the time against a market at 56.3%.
These come off the game simulation and are posted for tracking only. Nothing here is a wagering recommendation.
HR Calls
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) DK $6,300 | FD $4,000 vs Brandon Pfaadt
Pfaadt's 3.54 ERA makes this look like a bad spot, and I don't buy it. His xFIP sits at 5.48 with a .260 BABIP, and lefties have tagged him for 1.7 HR/9 with a 27.5% HR/FB. Schwarber against righties: .302 ISO, 28 homers, 54.9% hard contact. He's $6,300 on DraftKings and $4,000 on FanDuel, where the hitter board stops at $4,400, so both sites want premium money and I'd pay it on either one.
Jake Bauers (MIL) DK $4,500 | FD $3,300 vs Clay Holmes
Bauers won't stop hitting the ball hard: 58.2% hard contact against righties with a .215 ISO and 17 homers off them this season. Holmes keeps the ball on the ground, no argument there, but his 2.27 ERA floats on a .236 BABIP while the xFIP reads 3.82, and Wrigley with the wind out forgives any mistake that gets elevated. At $4,500 he sits in the true middle of the DK hitter board, and that's my favorite ratio of ceiling to cost tonight.
Walker Jenkins (MIN) DK $3,000 | FD $2,400 vs Jackson Jobe
You probably haven't rostered Jenkins yet, and at $3,000 batting ninth, the price alone gets him into builds. The rookie's early barrel numbers are loud, about one batted ball in four, though I'll be honest that the sample is small. Jobe walks 4.5 lefties per nine, and when he falls behind he comes back over the plate, which is why lefty hitters have cleared the wall on 20% of their fly balls against him. The wind's blowing out at Target Field, and his $2,400 FanDuel tag sits near that board's floor.
Stacks to Target
1. Baltimore vs Tanner Gordon (R) | Implied Total: 6.17 | ROO Score: 6.1/10 | Cash
Coors with the Orioles in town is the safest ceiling on the slate, and the market agrees: Baltimore is implied for more than six runs, the biggest team number tonight. Gordon has allowed more than half his contact in the air with 1.84 HR/9 on the season, and his xFIP near 7 says the 5.41 ERA is flattering him. Lefties are the side to press: 2.2 HR/9 and a .378 wOBA against, and Baltimore sends Holliday, Henderson, Basallo, and Cowser at him from that side. Once Gordon exits, the Colorado pen has run a 5.12 xFIP against lefty bats with more than a homer per nine, so the second half of the game keeps paying. My one honest caveat is that the simulation's own run expectation lands a shade under the market number, so you're paying full price for the floor. In cash I'm doing it anyway.
Core pieces: Jackson Holliday $4,700 (L), Pete Alonso $6,700 (R), Gunnar Henderson $6,200 (L), Samuel Basallo $5,000 (L), Colton Cowser $3,600 (L)
2. Milwaukee vs Clay Holmes (R) | Implied Total: 4.66 | ROO Score: 4.8/10 | GPP
I'll take the discount dugout in the windy game. Most rosters will land on the Cubs half of Wrigley, and Milwaukee's lefty group gets the same 30% weather at a discount. Holmes owns the shiniest ERA of any starter tonight at 2.27, but the ingredients read differently, a 3.82 xFIP, a .236 BABIP, an 82% strand rate, and he rarely finishes the sixth. Milwaukee's lefties run a 111 wRC+ against righty pitching and walk 11.5% of the time, with Turang at a 143 wRC+ and 16 homers off that side. Chicago's pen behind him is legitimate at a 3.81 xFIP versus lefties, so the runs probably have to come early. Medium ownership plus that forecast makes it my favorite tournament stack.
Core pieces: Brice Turang $5,300 (L), Jackson Chourio $5,500 (R), Jake Bauers $4,500 (L), Christian Yelich $4,600 (L), Garrett Mitchell $3,900 (L)
3. Houston vs Anthony Kay (L) | Implied Total: 4.64 | ROO Score: 4.7/10 | Cash
Kay is two different pitchers depending on the batter's box. Against lefties he's been terrific, a .241 wOBA and a 2.70 xFIP, and against righties it unravels: a 5.11 xFIP, a .373 wOBA, 1.56 HR/9 on a 21.9% HR/FB, and barely six Ks per nine. Houston can stack the exact side that hurts him with Pena, Paredes, Altuve, Walker, and Diaz, and Christian Walker's 122 wRC+ against southpaws leads that group. Alvarez is the one lefty I'd still consider because he's Alvarez, but the platoon math says build righty. The White Sox pen doesn't fix anything either, a 4.31 xFIP against right-handed bats with 1.22 HR/9. Ownership projects moderate, which is a nice bonus for a floor this steady.
Core pieces: Jeremy Pena $5,000 (R), Yordan Alvarez $6,500 (L), Isaac Paredes $4,100 (R), Jose Altuve $4,200 (R), Christian Walker $3,500 (R)
Pitchers
Jacob deGrom (TEX) vs ATH | DK $8,800 | FD $9,500 | CASH
The Athletics are priced for two and a half runs, the lowest number anywhere tonight, and deGrom's 17.5% swinging strike rate is the best of any starter on this slate. His 4.22 ERA has been lying about him all year: the xFIP is 2.96, the SIERA is 2.59, and a .307 BABIP with a 71% strand rate explains the rest. The catch is workload, since he's averaged about four innings over his last five starts, which caps the ceiling and is half the reason the simulation likes the A's on the run line above. I'm still anchoring cash here. He's $8,800 on a DK board that stops at $9,000, while FanDuel wants $9,500 out of a taller pitcher pool, so the relative price is friendlier on DraftKings.
Kyle Harrison (MIL) vs CHC | DK $9,000 | FD $9,700 | GPP
Harrison is the most expensive arm on today's DK board, and he's earned it. He strikes out more than eleven per nine, every estimator under the hood sits in the mid-2s, and the sub-3 ERA is no accident. So why isn't he cash? Wrigley, wind out, 30% homer weather, and a Cubs lineup that has scored more than seven runs a game over the last 7 days. Righties have reached him for 1.61 HR/9 with a 21.7% HR/FB, and Suzuki and Bregman both swing right inside the first three lineup spots. The strikeouts play in tournaments. My safest money doesn't go into that forecast.
Taj Bradley (MIN) vs DET | DK $8,700 | FD $9,200 | CASH
Detroit has scored three runs a game over the last 7 days and sits at 3.8 implied tonight. Bradley brings 10.3 K/9 with an ERA and xFIP within a quarter run of each other, the boring, trustworthy shape I want in cash. The soft spot is lefty power, where his HR/9 climbs past one and a half, and Detroit's better young bats swing left. I'd still rather pay $8,700 here than chase Ks in the wind at Wrigley, and he'll draw a fraction of deGrom's attention.
Aaron Nola (PHI) vs ARI | DK $7,200 | FD $8,900 | GPP
DraftKings looked at the 5.03 ERA and hung a $7,200 tag on Nola, and I think they priced the wrong number. The xFIP is 3.58, the SIERA is 3.31, a .314 BABIP has inflated the damage, and Arizona has scored two and a half runs a game over the last 7 days. The wart is real though: 2.01 HR/9 with a 15.9% HR/FB, so one bad pitch can still wreck the line even with the Chase roof shut. Cheap with a live downside reads tournament to me. More on his regression case below.
Peter Lambert (HOU) vs CWS | DK $8,400 | FD $8,400 | GPP
Price note first: Lambert costs exactly $8,400 on both sites, which almost never happens given how differently the two boards scale. The matchup is friendly, the White Sox sit at 3.86 implied, but I trust the spot more than the arm. His 3.66 ERA runs ahead of a 4.34 xFIP with a .272 BABIP, and a 4.3% HR/FB is the kind of number that climbs sooner or later. He's a fine dart on a slate without much pitching depth behind the top tier, as long as you know you're buying the matchup, not the pitcher.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
Walbert Urena (LAA), Negative Regression Candidate
Urena carries a 2.96 ERA with almost nothing underneath holding it up. His xFIP is more than two runs worse than that, at 5.11. He's been living on a .251 BABIP and a 78.6% strand rate while walking five per nine, and that mix catches up with a starter fast. The Yankees are the bats positioned to collect, and Rice, Bellinger, and Chisholm from the left side line up against the softer half of his profile.
Aaron Nola (PHI), Positive Regression Candidate
The gap between what Nola has allowed and what he's earned is one of the wider ones you'll find in a late-August rotation. A 5.03 ERA sits on a 3.58 xFIP, and a .314 BABIP is doing most of the inflating. The strikeout rate hasn't gone anywhere, nearly 10 per nine, and the walk rate is ordinary. The homer habit keeps this from being a clean buy, which is why he lands in tournaments tonight rather than cash.
Final Thoughts
Cash for me starts with deGrom and Bradley in the same build, $17,500 combined on a board where pitcher prices stay low, and that pairing leaves real money for bats. Spend it on the Baltimore lefties: Holliday at $4,700 and Basallo at $5,000 are the core, and Cowser at $3,600 is the discount that lets Alonso fit too. If one more cheap bat closes the lineup, Jenkins at $3,000 doubles as the homer dart.
Two things before lock. Coors shows a one-in-six rain chance and a 16 mph wind that's been swinging around, so check the final reading there. Watch the Wrigley flags too, because the gap between 10 mph out and 5 mph out changes how hard I'd push the Milwaukee and Chicago bats.
The tournament move is the full Coors game. Eleven is the tallest total anywhere tonight and both sides clear four and a half implied runs, so a four-man Baltimore core with a McCarthy and Moniak bring-back buys the whole environment while most rosters settle for one side. Milwaukee at medium ownership is the other path, and if you want a lineup few others will have, Suzuki and Bregman against Harrison's righty split is a two-man Cubs piece that fits next to almost anything.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.