Weather to Watch
Miami at Kansas City | Kauffman Stadium | Clear, 100F | Wind: 11 mph SW
Best hitting weather anywhere tonight, by a wide margin. A hundred degrees with the wind pushing out to center, and two of my three stacks come out of this game because of it.
Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs | Wrigley Field | Overcast, 88F | Wind: 1 mph SSW
The flags are dead, so what you're buying is a hot afternoon at Wrigley and not much else. Heat alone still carries a ball, though I wouldn't price this like a wind-out day at Clark and Addison.
Detroit at Minnesota | Target Field | Overcast, 88F | Wind: 3 mph SW
Warm, with the faintest push toward left. I'll take the bump, though this game gets decided by the pitching matchup and not the air.
Baltimore at Colorado | Coors Field | Mostly Clear, 86F | Wind: 7 mph ENE
Coors in the high 80s does exactly what you expect. The crosswind shaves a little off balls hit by lefties and leaves righties with the cleaner path out.
New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels | Angel Stadium | Clear, 76F | Wind: 9 mph SW
Mild night, wind blowing out. Small help, and with the Angels carrying the second-lowest implied total on the board it doesn't move my read on either side.
St. Louis at Los Angeles Dodgers | UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium | Clear, 69F | Wind: 7 mph WSW
Coolest game of the night by a good margin. The breeze out gives lefties a nudge. That's all there is here.
Arlington, Houston and Phoenix are all playing under a closed roof, so park factor is the only environmental input in those three.
Model Bets
St. Louis +1.5 (-143) | St. Louis at Los Angeles Dodgers | Edge: +3.0%
The simulation lands on a 59.3% cover rate where the market is pricing 56.3%. Los Angeles has one of the three best implied totals on the slate, but Eric Lauer is making his first start in two weeks and Michael McGreevy walks just 2.41 per nine, which is the profile of a guy who keeps a game close even when he loses it.
Athletics +1.5 (-136) | Athletics at Texas | Edge: +2.4%
57.5% against a market number of 55.1%, so it's a small one. It also doesn't fight the rest of this article: I want MacKenzie Gore because the Athletics can't score, and a game where nobody scores tends to stay inside a run.
These come off the game simulation and are posted for tracking only. Nothing here is a wagering recommendation.
HR Calls
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) DK $6,500 | FD $4,200 vs Sean Burke
Sean Burke has been the best arm Chicago has run out there all season, and I won't pretend otherwise. He's at 9.72 K/9 with a 3.15 SIERA and he's better on both sides of the plate than he was a year ago. What he hasn't fixed is the damage: 1.23 HR/9 and a 16.0% HR/FB against left-handed bats. Alvarez brings a .312 ISO, a 17.6% barrel rate and 57.1% hard contact into a park that plays 110 for home runs, and that's the half of this matchup I care about.
Jac Caglianone (KC) DK $5,100 | FD $3,100 vs Tyler Phillips
The rookie has spent all year hitting the ball as hard as anyone in this lineup and DraftKings still prices him like a project. Caglianone: .223 ISO, 17.2% barrel rate, 59.0% hard contact. Tyler Phillips walks 4.72 per nine against lefties, and a starter falling behind that often has to come back over the middle, which is where 47.1% of the contact he allows to that side gets hit hard. One note on price, because the two sites don't scale together: $5,100 makes him one of the more expensive bats on DraftKings, while $3,100 sits near the middle of a FanDuel hitter pool that only runs from $2,000 to $4,500. He's a much easier build over there.
Griffin Conine (MIA) DK $3,800 | FD $2,900 vs Randy Dobnak
DraftKings is clearly overlooking what Conine has done across 184 plate appearances. A .314 ISO with an 18.6% barrel rate and 56.7% hard contact shouldn't cost this little, and he draws the softest of these three matchups. Randy Dobnak has struck out 4.99 per nine against left-handed hitters this season, so Conine gets to swing at strikes in hundred-degree air. Roster him.
Stacks to Target
1. Baltimore vs Gabriel Hughes (R) | Implied Total: 6.18 | ROO Score: 6.2/10 | CASH
Baltimore is the only offense projected for six runs tonight, and the arm standing in front of them cannot miss a bat. Gabriel Hughes carries a 6.67 ERA across 47.2 innings while stranding only 57.0% of the runners he allows, so runners against him tend to come around and score. He strikes out 5.70 per nine against lefties, and Baltimore's left-handed group is the better half anyway at a 104 wRC+ with an 18.1% HR/FB against right-handed pitching. When Colorado goes to the bullpen it stays soft on that side: a 4.84 xFIP against left-handed bats compared with 3.46 against righties. Plenty of rosters will land here and I'm fine sharing, because Coors with the top total on the slate gives you a floor, and a floor is what I want in cash.
Core pieces: Pete Alonso $6,700 (R), Gunnar Henderson $6,200 (L), Samuel Basallo $5,200 (L), Jackson Holliday $4,900 (L), Colton Cowser $3,600 (L)
2. Kansas City vs Tyler Phillips (R) | Implied Total: 5.17 | ROO Score: 5.3/10 | CASH
I covered the ballpark up top. The pitcher is the other half of it. Phillips against lefties: 4.72 BB/9, 1.14 HR/9, 47.1% hard contact allowed. Kansas City puts three left-handed bats in the top five and that group posts a 109 wRC+ with 44.9% hard contact against right-handed pitching, so the top of that order keeps putting the wrong hitter in front of him. Miami's relief corps is no better on that side at a 4.88 xFIP and 1.45 HR/9, so Miami fixes nothing by going to its bullpen. Be honest about the cost, though. Witt and Caglianone together take $11,200 off your cap before you've filled a third of the roster.
Core pieces: Bobby Witt $6,100 (R), Jac Caglianone $5,100 (L), Carter Jensen $4,000 (L), Vinnie Pasquantino $3,900 (L), Salvador Perez $3,600 (R)
3. Miami vs Randy Dobnak (R) | Implied Total: 4.83 | ROO Score: 5.0/10 | GPP
Same ballpark, same air, a fraction of the attention. Dobnak's 1.93 ERA holds up right until you notice he's stranding 89.9% of baserunners while striking out 5.98 per nine, and that strikeout rate drops to 4.99 against left-handed hitters. Miami is built to punish exactly that: Stowers, Conine, Marsee, Caissie and Mack all hit left-handed, and the group carries a 115 wRC+ with an 18.4% HR/FB against righties. The Kansas City bullpen then hands them a 5.47 xFIP and 1.38 HR/9 on that same side. Kansas City is the popular way into this game. Miami is the way you win one.
Core pieces: Kyle Stowers $4,200 (L), Heriberto Hernandez $4,000 (R), Griffin Conine $3,800 (L), Owen Caissie $3,100 (L), Joe Mack $2,900 (L)
Pitchers
Jesus Luzardo (PHI) vs ARI | DK $10,500 | FD $11,100 | CASH
There's no such thing as a must play in baseball, but I can't really build an argument against him. Luzardo: 11.21 K/9, 2.78 xFIP, 2.54 SIERA, 163 innings. His 3.09 ERA is the worst number on the sheet, and a .305 BABIP explains it, so the surface line sells him short. Arizona sits at a 3.33 implied total, and the closed roof in Phoenix takes weather out of the equation. He's the priciest arm on both sites and he's at the very top of the FanDuel board, so the question is whether your other eight spots can live with it. Mine can.
MacKenzie Gore (TEX) vs ATH | DK $8,800 | FD $9,200 | CASH
Gore's 4.41 ERA is a lie and I'll spend the paragraph proving it. His xFIP is 3.61, his SIERA is 3.28, and he's stranding only 72.3% of runners. That combination usually belongs to a pitcher who has been better than his record. He also draws the lowest implied total on the slate: the Athletics are at 2.74. Against right-handed hitters, where most of that lineup lives, he runs 10.46 K/9 with a 3.42 xFIP. The roof is closed in Arlington so there's no weather to price in. My favorite arm on the board relative to what he costs, and he isn't drawing anything like Luzardo's attention.
Gerrit Cole (NYY) vs LAA | DK $9,500 | FD $10,000 | CASH
The Angels own the second-lowest implied total tonight and Cole is the guy who gets to attack it. He's at 9.62 K/9 against 1.92 BB/9, and his ERA and xFIP sit almost on top of each other, so there's nothing hiding in either direction. He'll be popular for the obvious reason. If you can fit him he's a fine cash anchor, but he's only $1,000 cheaper than Luzardo on DraftKings and I'd rather have Luzardo and find the savings elsewhere.
Connor Prielipp (MIN) vs DET | DK $6,700 | FD $7,200 | GPP
Read past the 5.55 ERA. Prielipp's xFIP is 3.75 and his SIERA is 3.43, and the gap comes from a .327 BABIP and a 59.3% strand rate that nobody sustains. He's punched out 9.64 per nine. Detroit runs five right-handed bats, which is the side where he's good: 3.38 xFIP and 9.74 K/9 across 73 innings against righties, versus 4.82 and a 5.68 BB/9 problem against lefties. Target Field is warm tonight and that's what keeps him at GPP instead of cash, but this is the cheapest real strikeout equity available.
Troy Melton (DET) vs MIN | DK $9,300 | FD $9,100 | GPP
Careful with this one. Melton is going to attract a crowd on the strength of a 1.86 ERA, and underneath it sit a 3.69 xFIP, a .231 BABIP and an 88.5% strand rate. He is excellent against right-handed hitters, no argument there, at a 2.08 xFIP and 8.86 K/9. Lefties are where he gets hurt: 4.93 xFIP, 1.48 HR/9 and a 94.3% strand rate, and Minnesota has Clemens, Larnach and Jenkins plus two switch-hitters to point at him. Use him in tournaments at this price. I wouldn't anchor a cash lineup to him.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
Grayson Rodriguez (LAA), Positive Regression Candidate
A 6.07 ERA reads like a broken pitcher and he mostly isn't one. Rodriguez sits at a 4.49 xFIP and a 4.12 SIERA behind 8.22 K/9, and the gap comes from a .324 BABIP and a 61.4% strand rate that are both a long way from where they'll finish. He's not a play tonight, since the Yankees and their 4.69 implied total are the wrong opponent for a bounce-back. Note him for the next start, because the price won't have moved yet.
Randy Dobnak (KC), Negative Regression Candidate
I covered why I'm stacking against him above, so I'll keep this short. Dobnak's 1.93 ERA is supported by nothing: 5.98 K/9, 3.69 BB/9, and an 89.9% strand rate that no starter holds across a full season. His FIP is 3.73 and the contact he allows is worse than that. Miami is the beneficiary, and in the hottest ballpark on the schedule I'd expect that gap to start closing tonight.
Final Thoughts
Cash builds start with Luzardo and Gore, which is $19,300 of DraftKings pitching and still workable because neither one needs help. From there I want four Baltimore bats around Alonso and Henderson, since Coors plus the slate's best implied total is the most dependable ceiling on the board, and then Caglianone as the expensive Kansas City piece. Conine at $3,800 is the bat that makes the math work, and if you need one more dollar Salvador Perez at $3,600 hits in the same lineup as Caglianone.
Three things worth checking before lock. The Kauffman wind reading can still move between now and first pitch, and if 11 mph fades toward calm the whole game re-prices downward. Robert Gasser hasn't started in twelve days, so I'd expect Milwaukee to hold him to a short count against the Cubs and go to relievers earlier than the matchup implies. And the Athletics are opening with Brady Basso, who threw one inning in his most recent start and two and a third the time before, so Texas is really facing a bullpen tonight.
For tournaments, take the whole Kansas City and Miami game. Ten runs on the total, both teams above 4.8 implied, two starters surviving on strand rate rather than stuff, and the best weather on the schedule. Overweight Miami, because the Kansas City side will be popular and the Miami side won't. If you'd rather get different somewhere else, Gasser gives up 1.86 HR/9 to right-handed hitters on a 21.2% HR/FB and the Cubs run six righties, so Seiya Suzuki and Tyrone Taylor are live at Wrigley. On the mound Melton is the pivot, as long as you accept you're betting a strand rate holds up one more night.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.