Weather to Watch
Miami at Kansas City | Kauffman Stadium | Clear, 100F | Wind: 12 mph S
A hundred degrees at Kauffman and a south wind carrying toward the outfield. No other park tonight is even in the conversation. Right-handed bats get the bigger add, but nobody in this game is hurt by it.
Boston at Baltimore | Oriole Park at Camden Yards | Overcast, 92F | Wind: 6 mph SE
The breeze crosses instead of carrying, so 92 degrees is doing the work on its own and that's plenty. Right-handed pull power is what I want out of this one.
Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs | Wrigley Field | Clear, 81F | Wind: 6 mph ENE
Wind's coming in off the lake, which drags Wrigley back to roughly average instead of the launching pad it can be. Left-handed bats take the bigger hit.
Athletics at Seattle | T-Mobile Park | Overcast, 62F | Wind: 6 mph SW
Coolest air on the slate and it shaves a little off everything hit in the air. Stack this game for the pitcher and the park. The forecast gives you nothing.
St. Louis at Los Angeles Dodgers | UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium | Clear, 69F | Wind: 7 mph WSW
Mild night with a light push out toward right field. It's a small nudge for lefty bats and I wouldn't build around it.
One roof tonight: Globe Life is closed at 73 degrees, so Texas gets park factor and nothing else.
Model Bets
Athletics +1.5 (-127) | Athletics at Seattle | Edge: +3.6%
Give the A's 57% to lose by a run or win outright, where the market sits at 53%. That cuts against the Seattle stack further down this page, and I won't pretend Kade Anderson is a lock in his third career start.
St. Louis +1.5 (+113) | St. Louis at Los Angeles Dodgers | Edge: +3.4%
Other game, same idea. The Cardinals grade at 48% to cover where the market has them at 45%, because Tarik Skubal turns it over after six innings and one loud frame against the Dodger pen settles it. I am stacking Los Angeles anyway.
These come off the game simulation and are posted for tracking only. Nothing here is a wagering recommendation.
HR Calls
Junior Caminero (TB) DK $6,700 | FD $3,800 vs Cal Quantrill
Quantrill has been living on borrowed time all season and tonight is the kind of night that collects. His ERA is 3.03 and his xFIP is 5.86, propped up by a .253 BABIP, a 78.1% strand rate and a 3.3% HR/FB that nobody holds onto. Caminero pulls 46.4% of his contact with a .262 ISO, and if Texas goes to the bullpen the relievers behind Quantrill carry a 5.04 xFIP and 1.94 HR/9 against righties. He sits near the top of the price sheet on both sites at DK $6,700 and FD $3,800, so there is no discount version of this play.
Roman Anthony (BOS) DK $4,800 | FD $2,900 vs Brandon Young
DraftKings has Anthony leading off at a mid-tier number and I think that is light for what he is doing to the baseball. Young walks 4.04 per 9 against left-handed hitters, and command that loose means he is pitching from behind and putting fastballs in the middle third rather than off the edges, which is how a guy gets to 1.04 HR/9 and a 15% HR/FB from that side. Anthony is hitting the ball hard on 54.4% of his batted balls. Camden at 92 degrees adds real carry to left-handed contact, and this is the cheapest way to buy it.
Coby Mayo (BAL) DK $3,900 | FD $2,900 vs Jake Bennett
I'll concede the awkward part first: Bennett gets ground balls on 65.4% of the contact righties put in play, so the chances in the air are limited. But right-handed hitters are still squaring him up 39.6% of the time and 11.3% of their fly balls have left the yard, and Mayo is barreling 24.7% of his contact with half of it pulled. Put that in 92-degree air at Camden and he does not need volume, just the one pitch. I would not call it a lock. At this price it does not have to be.
Stacks to Target
1. Los Angeles Dodgers vs Quinn Mathews (L) | Implied Total: 5.39 | ROO Score: 4.8/10 | Cash
Nothing else on the board is close to the Dodgers tonight, and the reason is the guy they're facing. Mathews has four big league starts, a 5.16 ERA and a 3.75 BB/9, and right-handed hitters are reaching base at a .365 clip with only 7.71 K/9 to slow them down. Betts, Will Smith and Teoscar Hernandez all swing from that side and none of them costs more than $4,200. The St. Louis pen runs a 4.42 xFIP and 1.47 HR/9 against right-handed bats, so an early hook does not fix much. Half the field will have some version of this. In cash I do not care, and in a tournament it is the one call I would think twice about.
Core pieces: Shohei Ohtani $6,500 (L), Freddie Freeman $5,000 (L), Mookie Betts $4,200 (R), Will Smith $3,800 (R), Teoscar Hernandez $3,700 (R)
2. Seattle vs Jack Perkins (R) | Implied Total: 4.89 | ROO Score: 4.5/10 | Cash
Everybody has hit Perkins hard this year and it gets ugly against left-handed bats: .361 wOBA, 1.82 HR/9, 23.3% HR/FB, 4.74 BB/9. Seattle bats Canzone, Naylor, Cole Young and Crawford from that side with Raleigh switching over to it, so nearly the whole card gets the good half of this matchup. T-Mobile plays big for left-handed pull power even on a 62-degree night, so the cold air matters less here than you would guess. The one thing pulling this back is the Athletics bullpen at a 3.95 xFIP against lefties, better than the man starting the game, so the damage needs to happen early. That's chalk, and it's chalk for a reason.
Core pieces: Randy Arozarena $5,100 (R), Cal Raleigh $4,500 (S), Julio Rodriguez $4,300 (R), Dominic Canzone $3,800 (L), Josh Naylor $3,300 (L)
3. Kansas City vs Sandy Alcantara (R) | Implied Total: 4.40 | ROO Score: 4.1/10 | GPP
Kansas City can't match the two stacks above it on implied runs, but they have the best run environment on the slate and they're the cheapest way to buy into it. Alcantara punches out only 6.66 per 9, and lefties have handled him all season at a .300 wOBA with 0.96 HR/9 and a 4.29 xFIP. The Royals run five left-handed bats through the order behind Jensen and Caglianone, which lines up with a 100-degree night and the wind blowing out. Miami's bullpen is where this breaks open, a 4.84 xFIP and 1.34 HR/9 against lefties, and the Royals get there whether Alcantara goes six or five. Fewer rosters here than on the Dodgers or Seattle. Same ceiling.
Core pieces: Bobby Witt $6,200 (R), Jac Caglianone $5,200 (L), Carter Jensen $4,200 (L), Vinnie Pasquantino $4,000 (L), Salvador Perez $3,700 (R)
Pitchers
Tarik Skubal (LAD) vs STL | DK $10,500 | FD $10,900 | CASH
There is no case to make against him. None. He's at 10.91 K/9 with a 1.50 BB/9 and a 2.56 xFIP, and the Cardinals carry the lowest team total on the slate at just over two runs. Right-handed hitters have managed a .244 wOBA against him and the Cardinals will send five or six of them up. He tops the price sheet on both sites, but the FanDuel pitcher pool only starts at $6,900, so he takes a bigger bite there than the DK number suggests. Pay up anyway.
Kevin Gausman (CHC) vs MIL | DK $8,100 | FD $8,600 | CASH
Gausman has the worst ERA of any starter I am recommending and almost none of it is his doing. The 4.53 sits on a 3.40 xFIP and a 3.29 SIERA, with 9.05 K/9 underneath, and the gap traces back to a .314 BABIP paired with a 67.3% strand rate, neither of which is a repeatable skill. Against right-handed hitters he's been better still at a 2.96 xFIP and 9.99 K/9, and Chourio and William Contreras are the Brewers bats on that side. The wind is blowing in at Wrigley tonight, and that removes the one thing that actually hurts him. He is in most of my cash lineups.
Logan Henderson (MIL) vs CHC | DK $9,500 | FD $10,000 | GPP
Henderson is the only strikeout arm on the slate in Skubal's neighborhood: 10.17 K/9, 1.66 BB/9, and a 2.92 xFIP that says the 2.48 ERA is earned. The batted-ball shape gives me pause. He's put only 18.5% of contact on the ground this year, and an extreme fly-ball pitcher walking into Wrigley carries a specific kind of risk. Tonight's wind is the reason he's rosterable at all, and if it turns out before first pitch I'm off him.
Shane McClanahan (TB) vs TEX | DK $7,700 | FD $8,200 | GPP
Roof closed, Texas implied for under four runs. About as controlled as this slate gets. The reason he's not a cash anchor is that a 3.19 ERA sitting on a 3.91 xFIP with a 3.5% HR/FB will give some of that back. You're buying 8.20 K/9 at a price that still lets you fit the Dodger bats.
Jake Bennett (BOS) vs BAL | DK $7,500 | FD $8,900 | GPP
A 92-degree night at Camden should scare you off a starter in this range, and with most arms it would. Bennett gets ground balls on two-thirds of his contact, 66.7% on the year and 65.4% against righties, which is the best protection anyone's offering against a warm night in a small park. The catch is 7.15 K/9, so you are buying innings and a quality start rather than a big raw number. The two sites disagree on him: FanDuel has him fifth among tonight's twelve arms while DraftKings has him seventh, so he's the better buy on DK.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
Cal Quantrill (TEX), Negative Regression Candidate
No starter tonight has a wider split between his ERA and his xFIP, 3.03 against 5.86, and everything underneath points the same direction: a .253 BABIP, a 78.1% strand rate, and a 3.3% HR/FB that no pitcher keeps. He's striking out 6.86 per 9 with a 45.5% fly-ball rate, which is a rough pairing once the balls start carrying. The Rays are on the right side of that tonight.
Kevin Gausman (CHC), Positive Regression Candidate
Same arm I recommended above, and the case is the same in reverse. A 4.53 ERA sitting on a 3.40 xFIP and a 3.29 SIERA, and the difference is a .314 BABIP next to a 67.3% strand rate. His strikeout and walk numbers haven't moved. Milwaukee draws a starter better than his surface line.
Final Thoughts
Skubal and the Dodgers are the backbone of every cash lineup I'll build tonight, and the reason that works at these prices is the bottom of the Los Angeles order. Betts at $4,200, Will Smith at $3,800 and Teoscar Hernandez at $3,700 are premium bats priced like role players against a rookie with a walk problem. Gausman is the second starter that makes the math close, and when the build comes up short, Miguel Rojas at $2,600 or Kyle Isbel at $2,800 closes the gap.
Wrigley is the one to watch before lock. Gausman and Henderson both need that wind to keep blowing in, and if the forecast flips, Milwaukee's left-handed bats turn into the best value on the slate while both arms come off my sheet. Kansas City is the other spot worth a second look, though there the direction is settled and the only question is how hot it gets by first pitch.
For tournaments, the Royals are the differentiation. Same slate, better air than anything else on it, and stacking them leaves enough salary to double back on the Dodgers or fit Caminero. Coby Mayo at $3,900 is priced under what his contact quality deserves, and Baltimore's entire right-handed middle gets the platoon edge against Bennett. If you want one more contrarian angle, the Athletics against a starter making his third career appearance is a fine large-field swing.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.