Weather to Watch
Detroit at Cleveland | Progressive Field | Overcast, 78F | Wind: 4 mph NNW
The breeze is light and blowing in from center, so Progressive plays a touch pitcher-friendly tonight. Nothing here changes how I'd build.
Boston at Baltimore | Oriole Park at Camden Yards | Partly Cloudy, 88F | Wind: 4 mph WNW
Heat is the story in Baltimore, with a crosswind that isn't doing much either way. Warm and heavy air at Camden usually means a couple of extra fly balls carry, and I'd give the Orioles righties a small bump because of it.
San Francisco at New York Mets | Citi Field | Clear, 79F | Wind: 7 mph NW
A cross breeze at Citi with a little push toward the left-field line. That favors the lefty bats slightly and does nothing for the righties, which matters with San Francisco running out seven left-handed hitters.
Minnesota at Chicago White Sox | Rate Field | Clear, 93F | Wind: 8 mph WSW
Rate Field at 93 degrees with the wind angling out to right-center is one of the better hitting environments tonight. The righties get the bigger boost from the wind direction, but the heat helps everybody.
Toronto at Kansas City | Kauffman Stadium | Clear, 97F | Wind: 9 mph S
Best hitting weather anywhere tonight, by a wide margin. Ninety-seven degrees with the wind blowing straight out at Kauffman turns a big neutral park into a launching pad for one night, and the right-handed bats benefit most.
St. Louis at Colorado | Coors Field | Mostly Clear, 84F | Wind: 5 mph SSE
Coors in the mid-80s with a light wind out is what you want when the total sits at 11.5. Humidity is low too, so the ball should carry the way it always does here, maybe a little more.
New York Yankees at San Diego | Petco Park | Overcast, 72F | Wind: 6 mph WNW
Cool, damp, and a crosswind at Petco. This is the one outdoor game tonight where the air works against the hitters, and it lines up with a 7.5 total.
Washington at Los Angeles Dodgers | Dodger Stadium | Clear, 70F | Wind: 6 mph WSW
Comfortable evening in Chavez Ravine with a slight wind out to left. Neutral to slightly positive for the Dodgers lefties, and nothing that should scare you off the stack.
Athletics at Seattle | T-Mobile Park | Clear, 66F | Wind: 2 mph NNW
The roof is projected open, and 66 degrees with dead air is the coolest game on the slate. Seattle already suppresses the long ball, and tonight the weather leans the same way.
Three roofs are closed tonight: loanDepot park, Globe Life Field, and Daikin Park. Park factor still applies in each, the forecast does not.
Model Bets
Washington +1.5 (+114) | Washington at Los Angeles Dodgers | Edge: +2.7%
The simulation has the Nationals covering the run line a little over 47% of the time against a devigged market of 45%. This runs against the Dodgers stack I'll get to below, so I'm treating it as a reminder that Jackson Kent's walks and Blake Snell's short outings both bring the bullpens into play early.
San Francisco +1.5 (-136) | San Francisco at New York Mets | Edge: +2.7%
Close to 58% for the Giants to stay within a run versus 55% from the market. Matt Wilkinson is a three-start rookie, but the Mets bats have been cold, and the simulation isn't buying a blowout.
Miami +1.5 (-150) | Chicago Cubs at Miami | Edge: +2.4%
Just under 60% for the Marlins to cover, against roughly 57.5% at the book. Shota Imanaga's home run problem is the reason a Cubs blowout is less likely than the moneyline implies.
Under 7.5 (-114) | New York Yankees at San Diego | Edge: +2.3%
The simulation lands at 53% for the under against 51% from the market. Petco in cool air with Max Fried on one side and Walker Buehler's improved underlying numbers on the other, and I don't hate it.
These come off the game simulation and are posted for tracking only. Nothing here is a wagering recommendation.
HR Calls
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) DK $6,400 | FD $4,200 vs Merrill Kelly
There's no such thing as a must play in baseball, but this is about as close as the slate gets. Kelly against lefties: 5.68 xFIP, 5.0 BB/9, 1.98 HR/9, 22% HR/FB. He walks left-handed hitters often enough that he pitches from behind most innings, and when he has to come into the zone the pitch gets hit hard, which is how you allow a .512 slugging to that side. Alvarez is hitting .311 ISO with a 198 wRC+ against righties, barrels 17% of his contact, and hits the ball hard 57% of the time. He's the priciest bat on both sites, and his $4,200 on FanDuel sits near the top of that hitter board. I don't think you get a cleaner power spot tonight at any price.
Kazuma Okamoto (TOR) DK $4,000 | FD $3,100 vs Daniel Lynch IV
Okamoto is one of the better right-handed platoon bats on the slate, and DraftKings has him at a price that reads like a utility guy. Against lefties he owns a .258 ISO and a 133 wRC+ with 49% hard contact, and he pulls the ball more than half the time, which is the swing you want at Kauffman on a 97-degree night with the wind out. Lynch has been a two-to-four inning starter all month, so Okamoto probably sees him once and then gets the Kansas City bullpen, and Lynch's 3.8 BB/9 to righties says the one look is a good one. My lean is that this is the mid-tier ceiling piece tonight, and the $3,100 on FanDuel is a fair bit cheaper relative to that board.
Michael Massey (KC) DK $3,500 | FD $2,600 vs Jameson Taillon
Massey is the dart. He's a pull-heavy lefty, 51% of his batted balls go to the right side and a third of them are fly balls, and he's stepping into the best home run weather on the slate. Taillon has given up 3.02 HR/9 to left-handed hitters this year with a 25.5% HR/FB. Taillon also carries a 5.2 BB/9 against lefties, and that's the connection that matters: he falls behind, has to throw a fastball over the plate, and it's been leaving the park. Taillon hasn't made a start in 25 days, so the leash is going to be short, but the Toronto bullpen behind him is worse against lefties than he is. At $2,600 on FanDuel he's near the floor of that board, and $3,500 on DraftKings is value territory for a seventh-place hitter with this much wind behind him.
Stacks to Target
1. St. Louis vs Ryan Feltner (R) | Implied Total: 6.24 | ROO Score: 5.9/10 | Cash
The Cardinals lead the slate at 6.24 implied runs and nobody else is above six, and they get it against the worst starter on the board. Feltner: 5.87 ERA, 6.73 xFIP, 4.0 BB/9, 1.69 HR/9, and only 65% of his baserunners get stranded. He's been worse against righties on the power side, 1.85 HR/9 and a .528 slugging, but his 5.0 BB/9 against lefties means nobody in this lineup gets a bad look. Feltner also hasn't started in 11 days, and the Rockies bullpen behind him sits at a 4.79 xFIP, so there's no relief coming from the relief. Alec Burleson is the centerpiece: 160 wRC+ against righties with a .526 hard-hit rate, and Jordan Walker at 127 is the other bat I'd pay for. This is the chalk stack, and it's earned. Play it in cash and don't overthink it.
Core pieces: Alec Burleson $5,500 (L), Jordan Walker $6,200 (R), Ivan Herrera $5,200 (R), Jose Fermin $4,200 (R), Nolan Gorman $3,200 (L)
2. Los Angeles Dodgers vs Jackson Kent (L) | Implied Total: 5.87 | ROO Score: 5.8/10 | Cash
Kent has thrown 19 innings across four big-league starts with a 7.1 BB/9. Against righties it's a 9.2 BB/9. That's a rookie who can't find the zone, and the Dodgers lineup is built to make him pay for it: Ohtani has a .266 ISO and 139 wRC+ against lefties, Tommy Edman is at 118, Freeman at 114, and the righties as a group are above average against southpaws. The Nationals bullpen is fine at a 3.87 xFIP, so the runs need to come early, and with Kent averaging under five innings I'd expect them to. The simulation's Washington run-line bet above says the game stays closer than the moneyline thinks, and I'll concede the Dodgers have been a cold group this week. I still think this is a cash-safe stack, one where the field is going to be right there with you.
Core pieces: Shohei Ohtani $6,500 (L), Freddie Freeman $5,000 (L), Tommy Edman $4,100 (S), Teoscar Hernandez $3,800 (R), Kyle Tucker $3,500 (L)
3. Kansas City vs Jameson Taillon (R) | Implied Total: 4.99 | ROO Score: 5.0/10 | GPP
This is where I'd go if you want to get off the chalk. Taillon's numbers this season are ugly: 5.68 ERA, 2.79 HR/9, 19.8% HR/FB, and the lefty split is worse. Add the 97-degree heat, the wind out, and a first start in 25 days, and you've got a pitcher who is probably capped around 60 pitches and gives up fly balls that carry. The catch is that Kansas City then faces the Toronto bullpen, but that pen has a 5.11 xFIP against left-handed hitters, so the second half of this game isn't a downgrade. Jac Caglianone is the engine at a 137 wRC+ and 59% hard contact against righties, Carter Jensen has 19 homers off right-handers, and the Royals lefties as a group are hitting the ball hard 45% of the time against righties. Lower owned than the two stacks above and with a real ceiling in this weather, so it's my preferred tournament build.
Core pieces: Jac Caglianone $4,900 (L), Bobby Witt $5,900 (R), Carter Jensen $4,400 (L), Vinnie Pasquantino $4,000 (L), Michael Massey $3,500 (L)
Pitchers
Blake Snell (LAD) vs WSH | DK $11,000 | FD $10,500 | CASH
I can't build much of an argument against him. Snell: 2.42 ERA, 2.82 xFIP, 12.5 K/9, 33% strikeout rate, and a 20.8% swinging-strike rate through five starts. The walks are there at a 4.2 BB/9, and that's why he's averaging a shade over five innings, but Washington's 2.13 implied runs are the fewest of any team tonight, so the walks are a pitch-count problem more than a run problem. He's the most expensive arm on both sites. On FanDuel that $10,500 is the top of the board and a bigger bite of your roster, so pay attention to what it does to the rest of your build there. On DraftKings he's chalk and he's worth it.
Logan Gilbert (SEA) vs ATH | DK $9,500 | FD $9,300 | CASH
Gilbert's surface line and his underlying numbers agree, which is rare enough to point out: 3.43 ERA, 3.39 xFIP, 9.3 K/9 against 2.2 BB/9. The Athletics lineup has four lefties and a switch hitter in it and Gilbert runs a 10.9 K/9 against left-handed hitters. The Athletics' implied total is 2.36, second lowest on the slate, and T-Mobile Park in 66-degree air is where you want a fly-ball pitcher. He's going to be popular tonight and I'm fine with that. Pair him with Snell in cash if you can find the salary, and if you can't, he's the one I'd keep.
Nolan McLean (NYM) vs SF | DK $10,000 | FD $10,100 | GPP
Ten thousand dollars for McLean is a real ask, but the matchup makes it easier to swallow. San Francisco starts seven left-handed hitters, and McLean is a 10.2 K/9 pitcher against lefties with a 3.89 xFIP to that side. The Giants sit at 2.98 implied runs. The walk rate is what holds him back from cash for me, a 3.5 BB/9 overall and 3.8 against lefties, plus an ERA that sits about half a run under his xFIP on a .262 BABIP. He's good, I'm not disputing that, but the price sheet is paying for the ERA and not the profile. I'd rather have him in tournaments where the strikeout ceiling matters more than the floor.
Max Fried (NYY) vs SD | DK $9,000 | FD $9,500 | GPP
Fried's 2.80 ERA is built on a 1.8% HR/FB, and nobody holds that. His xFIP sits at 3.47, his BABIP is .257, and he's only averaged four and two-thirds innings over his last five starts, so there's a workload question along with the luck question. That's the bad news. On the positive side, San Diego runs out a righty-heavy lineup and Fried holds right-handed hitters to a .261 wOBA with an 8.8 K/9, Petco is the best pitcher's park on the slate, and the Padres are implied for 3.43 runs. The ownership projections have him well under the radar for a $9,000 arm with this matchup, and the simulation likes the under in this game. That's tournament leverage at a fair price.
Ranger Suarez (BOS) vs BAL | DK $8,500 | FD $8,300 | GPP
The Orioles are running out six right-handed hitters, and righties are the side Suarez handles: .276 wOBA allowed to righties, 0.50 HR/9, 8.1 K/9. His overall 3.65 ERA and 3.57 xFIP line up, so I'm not worried about a mirage here. The concern is Camden at 88 degrees and a Baltimore lineup with Coby Mayo and Christian Encarnacion-Strand in it, both of whom hit the ball hard when they connect. Baltimore's implied total is a modest 4.07 and the ownership is light. That combination is why he's here as a tournament play instead of a cash one.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
Walker Buehler (SD), Positive Regression Candidate
Buehler's 4.67 ERA sits two-thirds of a run above his 4.01 xFIP, he's stranded 72% of his runners, and his BABIP has been ordinary at .298. The stuff isn't what it was, a 7.6 K/9 and a 7.6% swinging-strike rate say so, but the ERA is punishing him more than the profile deserves. Tonight he draws a Yankees lineup that is nine left-handed hitters deep, and his xFIP against lefties is 3.96 with 8.2 K/9. At Petco in cool air, at $7,100 on DraftKings, he's the buy-low arm most people will skip while they pay up.
Nick Martinez (TB), Negative Regression Candidate
Martinez has a 3.00 ERA and a 4.31 xFIP, and the gap is luck: a .268 BABIP and 82.4% of his baserunners stranded. He sits at a 5.3 K/9 and walks almost nobody, which keeps the damage contained on most nights, but a pitcher who doesn't miss bats and lives on sequencing is due to give runs back. Texas is the lineup that benefits, with Seager, Langford, and Nimmo in the middle of the order at Globe Life. I'm not stacking the Rangers with the roof closed and a 3.88 implied total, but I'm not playing Martinez at $8,200 either.
Final Thoughts
Cash builds start with Snell and Gilbert if you can afford both, and I think you can if you stay disciplined with the bats. The St. Louis stack is the anchor, Burleson and Walker plus one of Herrera or Fermin, and the Dodgers give you a second reliable source of runs against a starter who can't find the zone. Nolan Gorman at $3,200 hitting sixth in Coors is the cheap bat that makes the two-pitcher build work, and Massey at $3,500 does the same job if you'd rather have the Kauffman weather.
Before lock, the thing I'm watching is the Texas pitching listing. Trevor Williams is on the board as the starter and he's been used as a two-inning opener, so Kumar Rocker is the arm the Rays will face for the bulk of that game, and Rocker's 4.5 BB/9 against lefties is what a Tampa stack would be built on. Taillon's pitch count is the second thing I'll check. If Toronto plans to let him go deep, the Royals stack gets better, not worse.
For tournaments, Kansas City is my favorite pivot off the two chalk stacks, and the Coors game qualifies as a full game stack: an 11.5 total, both sides implied above five runs, and neither starter anybody would call an ace. Colorado's side of it has Hunter Goodman and Jake McCarthy against Andre Pallante, who is making his first start in 18 days and probably isn't going six. Fried at low ownership is the pitcher pivot, and Okamoto plus George Springer against Lynch and the Kansas City pen is the cheap way into the best weather on the slate from the visiting dugout.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.