Weather to Watch
Toronto at Kansas City | Kauffman Stadium | Overcast, 101F | Wind: 3 mph S
A hundred and one degrees is the whole story here, and the light southerly breeze pushes the same direction. Best home run air on the board tonight, righties a shade more than lefties.
St. Louis at Colorado | Coors Field | Overcast, 91F | Wind: 2 mph SE
Ninety-one degrees at altitude with 14% humidity and dead air. An 11-run total says the market and the forecast agree.
Washington at Los Angeles Dodgers | UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium | Clear, 79F | Wind: 7 mph WSW
Warm with a real push out toward right, and it grades out as the third-best power spot on tonight's board. It won't show up in a 7-run total because Washington isn't scoring.
Minnesota at Chicago White Sox | Rate Field | Partly Cloudy, 72F | Wind: 11 mph N
Cool, but the wind is out at 11 and angled toward right field. That's a lefty-friendly setup and it's the only reason this game stays in the conversation.
New York Yankees at San Diego | Petco Park | Mostly Clear, 83F | Wind: 8 mph NW
Petco at 83 runs warmer than this park normally gives you, and the heat beats a crosswind that's blowing in. A small add for left-handed bats. Nothing for the righties.
Boston at Baltimore | Oriole Park at Camden Yards | Mostly Clear, 82F | Wind: 7 mph NNE
Warm night with the wind coming in from center. Those two cancel and you're left with the park doing the work alone.
Athletics at Seattle | T-Mobile Park | Partly Cloudy, 67F | Wind: 6 mph ESE
Coldest air on the slate in the park that already takes the most off a fly ball. I'm fading bats in this one.
Two roofs are shut, Daikin and Globe Life. Both venues still play the way they play, the sky just doesn't enter into it.
Model Bets
Athletics +1.5 (-101) | Athletics at Seattle | Edge: +4.1%
The simulation gives the Athletics 52% to finish inside a run of Seattle where the market prices it at 48%. Seattle is the biggest favorite on the board and this is the coldest park on the board, and the sim doesn't buy both of those at once.
Washington +1.5 (-115) | Washington at Los Angeles Dodgers | Edge: +2.2%
53% for the Nationals to cover against 51% at the book. I have Tyler Glasnow as a cash arm further down, so I'll say the obvious part out loud: those two takes fight each other, and the way they coexist is Glasnow going six untouched while the Los Angeles bullpen hands a run back.
These come off the game simulation and are posted for tracking only. Nothing here is a wagering recommendation.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
HR Calls
Jac Caglianone (KC) DK $5,400 | FD $3,200 vs Max Scherzer
Scherzer's issue with left-handed hitters stopped being subtle a while ago. His walk rate to that side is 5.24 BB/9 with a 5.80 xFIP, and a pitcher handing out that many free passes lives behind in counts, which is where the 3-1 fastball over the middle comes from. He's already surrendered 1.84 HR/9 to lefties with an 18.4% HR/FB, and Caglianone answers with 76.2 mph bat speed, a 16.5% barrel rate and 58.5% hard contact. Worth noting the FanDuel number too, because $3,200 on a hitter board that tops out at $4,300 is a very different ask than $5,400 on DraftKings.
Corbin Carroll (ARI) DK $5,200 | FD $3,500 vs Ethan Pecko
Pecko has three big league starts and the left-handed slice of them is rough: 8.22 BB/9, 4.70 HR/9, 46% of contact in the air. I'd normally toss out seven innings of split data, except the full season line agrees at 6.23 BB/9 and 2.77 HR/9, so what you have is a young arm with no idea where the ball is going, and he elevates when he misses. Carroll carries a .227 ISO with a 13.5% barrel rate and he pulls 43% of what he hits, which is the profile that punishes that mistake. The roof is closed at Daikin, so nothing muddies the read.
Nolan Gorman (STL) DK $3,200 | FD $2,800 vs Mason Adams
Cheapest ticket into an 11-run game. Gorman puts 40% of his contact in the air and pulls 46% of it, and that shape at Coors on a 91-degree night with 14% humidity is about as good as September gets. Adams has thrown four and a third innings against left-handed hitters as a big leaguer, and in them he's walked 6.23 BB/9, given up 2.08 HR/9 and allowed hard contact on 55% of the balls in play. At $3,200 he's the salary save that lets you pay up twice somewhere else.
Stacks to Target
1. St. Louis vs Mason Adams (R) | Implied Total: 5.58 | ROO Score: 5.6/10 | Cash
Coors at 11 runs, and the Cardinals are the side the market prefers. Adams: two career starts, 9 innings, 5.00 BB/9, 2.00 HR/9, 4.53 xFIP. He's averaged four and a half innings a start, so St. Louis probably sees him twice and then meets a Colorado bullpen carrying a 4.67 xFIP. The left-handed half of this lineup is the group I want, at a 101 wRC+ against right-handed pitching with 43.5% hard contact, while the right-handed half sits at 86. Burleson and Gorman lead my exposure, Walker and Baez come along because of where the game is. Everybody will be here and that's fine with me.
Core pieces: Alec Burleson $5,500 (L), Jordan Walker $6,200 (R), Ivan Herrera $5,200 (R), Joshua Baez $5,000 (R), Nolan Gorman $3,200 (L)
2. Kansas City vs Max Scherzer (R) | Implied Total: 4.81 | ROO Score: 4.8/10 | Cash
It feels strange typing a future Hall of Famer into the softest spot on a slate, but the 2026 version is a 6.16 ERA with 1.89 HR/9, a 19.4% HR/FB, and 55% of the contact against him going in the air. Drop that into a 101-degree yard with the wind out and the arithmetic writes itself. Kansas City's lefties sit at a 109 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching with 44.8% hard contact, which puts Caglianone, Jensen and Pasquantino on the side Scherzer can't get out. Toronto's bullpen is at a 5.05 xFIP, so the innings after he exits don't improve anything. The whole room will be on this one. I don't mind sharing it.
Core pieces: Bobby Witt $6,100 (R), Jac Caglianone $5,400 (L), Carter Jensen $4,400 (L), Vinnie Pasquantino $4,100 (L), Salvador Perez $3,700 (R)
3. Toronto vs Seth Lugo (R) | Implied Total: 4.69 | ROO Score: 4.6/10 | GPP
Same ballpark, same heat, fewer people. Lugo's 5.03 ERA has a 4.52 xFIP underneath it, he's at 6.90 K/9, and he barely misses a bat at a 7.8% swinging-strike rate. Toronto strikes out on only 17.0% of its plate appearances against right-handed pitching, so this is a lineup that will put nine balls in play a night in air adding close to a quarter to every fly ball. Springer pulls 42% of his contact and Okamoto pulls better than half of everything he hits, and that batted ball shape is what cashes in this air. I'll concede the knock: the Kansas City bullpen at a 3.73 xFIP is better than what backs Scherzer, so the late innings tilt to the other dugout. I'd still rather buy this side at the discount.
Core pieces: George Springer $4,400 (R), Vladimir Guerrero $4,000 (R), Kazuma Okamoto $3,800 (R), Alejandro Kirk $3,700 (R), Ernie Clement $3,200 (R)
Pitchers
Tyler Glasnow (LAD) vs WSH | DK $10,500 | FD $10,700 | CASH
I went looking for the argument against him and there isn't one. Glasnow: 2.81 ERA, 2.59 xFIP, 2.33 SIERA, 10.90 K/9, 12.2% swinging strikes. His .207 BABIP is the only thing whispering regression, but the xFIP sits below the ERA rather than above it, which tells you the strikeouts and the command built this, not the gloves behind him. Washington is implied for two and a half runs. He's the most popular arm on the slate and I'm not fighting it.
George Kirby (SEA) vs ATH | DK $8,400 | FD $9,000 | CASH
DraftKings is pricing an earned run average and missing the pitcher underneath it. Kirby's 4.20 ERA sits on a 3.74 xFIP with a .333 BABIP, which is the kind of gap that closes without anybody doing anything, and he's at 2.13 BB/9 with a 53.6% ground ball rate. Seattle is a 250 favorite and the Athletics are implied for two and a half in the coldest park of the night. The boards don't agree on him: seventh-priciest arm on DraftKings, near the ceiling of a FanDuel pitcher pool that runs to $10,700. Discount on one board, roughly fair on the other.
Jacob deGrom (TEX) vs TB | DK $9,600 | FD $9,500 | CASH
A 4.00 ERA on a 2.92 xFIP and a 2.52 SIERA. That's the pitch. He's at 10.96 K/9 with the highest swinging-strike rate on the slate at 17.5%, and the run prevention lags because he's stranded only 71.6% of his baserunners. Roof closed at Globe Life, Tampa Bay implied for three and a half. Everybody sees this, so he's chalk next to Glasnow, but he's chalk you can anchor a cash lineup with.
Drew Rasmussen (TB) vs TEX | DK $9,300 | FD $9,700 | GPP
The other half of that game and $300 cheaper on DraftKings. Rasmussen's ERA and xFIP agree at right around 2.95, and the walks explain it: 1.66 BB/9, the best mark of any starter tonight. Texas is implied for three and a half under the same closed roof. He doesn't have deGrom's strikeout ceiling, which is why I've got him tagged for tournaments instead of the cash slot.
Cade Cavalli (WSH) vs LAD | DK $8,800 | FD $10,200 | GPP
The leverage arm, and the two price tags tell the story before the stats do: $8,800 on DraftKings against $10,200 on FanDuel, where pitchers stop at $10,700. Cavalli is at a 3.13 ERA, a 3.23 xFIP and 10.47 K/9, and he shuts down right-handed hitters at a 2.90 xFIP with 10.74 K/9. The Dodger lefties are the problem and Los Angeles is implied for five, which is why almost nobody will roster him. I want the exposure for that reason alone.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
Matthew Liberatore (STL), Positive Regression Candidate
A 5.43 ERA propped over a 3.92 xFIP, with a .341 BABIP and only 69.0% of baserunners stranded. He's at 9.46 K/9, so the stuff is real, and his batted-ball luck has been the worst of any starter on this slate. None of it helps him tonight because he's throwing at Coors into the highest team total on the board. Circle him for his next turn in a normal ballpark.
Brandon Pfaadt (ARI), Negative Regression Candidate
Pfaadt's 3.51 ERA reads like a competent season and his 5.62 xFIP says most of it is smoke. He's at 5.96 K/9, the lowest of any starter tonight, so there's no strikeout floor propping this up, and he's already allowed 1.06 HR/9 with a 16.0% HR/FB. Houston is the lineup on the good end of that.
Final Thoughts
My cash core is Glasnow and Kirby with the Cardinals stacked behind them, and Kirby at $8,400 is the piece that makes a two-arm build fit at all. Burleson and Walker are the bats I want most, and Gorman at $3,200 buys you a fifth Cardinal for almost nothing. If you'd rather run one pitcher, deGrom plus a deeper Kansas City stack gets to the same place.
Mason Adams is what I'm watching before lock. Two career starts, four and a half innings a night, and a Colorado bullpen at a 4.67 xFIP waiting behind him. Knock him out in the third and both offenses gain, which is the case for playing the entire Coors game at 11 runs with both sides implied near five.
Toronto is where I'd get different. Same 101-degree air Kansas City gets, a starter in Lugo who's worse than his salary suggests, and a lineup that hardly strikes out, all at a fraction of the exposure the Royals will draw. Pair a five-man Blue Jays stack with Cavalli and you're off both arms everybody else is starting. Corbin Carroll is the other spot I'd differentiate, because Pecko's command should crack early and Arizona hits him second.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.