Weather to Watch
Arizona at Kansas City | Kauffman Stadium | Clear, 101F | Wind: 11 mph SSW
A hundred and one degrees with the breeze pushing out to left. Best place to hit on the whole board tonight, and by enough that I won't let Kauffman's usual suppression talk me out of the game.
Toronto at Athletics | Sutter Health Park | Partly Cloudy, 93F | Wind: 5 mph NW
Ninety-three in a park that already inflates power, with a crosswind soft enough to ignore. Second-friendliest home run environment on the board.
Cincinnati at Los Angeles Dodgers | Dodger Stadium | Clear, 91F | Wind: 5 mph W
Ninety-one degrees and no wind to speak of, which is a straight double-digit bump to home run odds with nothing pushing back. It lands on a Dodger lineup that didn't need the help.
Washington at San Diego | Petco Park | Clear, 91F | Wind: 9 mph N
Hot, though a steady push off the water takes some of that back at nine miles an hour. Home run odds still grade above average here; total run scoring doesn't.
Tampa Bay at Atlanta | Truist Park | Clear, 87F | Wind: 5 mph E
Eighty-seven, clear, wind moving sideways at five. Truist plays like Truist plus a little, and I'd hit here without thinking about it much.
St. Louis at San Francisco | Oracle Park | Overcast, 75F | Wind: 13 mph W
Thirteen miles an hour blowing out is the strongest wind on the slate and for once it's aimed the right way. Oracle is still Oracle, so all this does is drag a bad park up to playable.
Colorado at New York Yankees | Yankee Stadium | Overcast, 78F | Wind: 2 mph N
Dead calm at 78, which leaves you the short porch and nothing else. Against a card this left-handed that's still plenty.
Pittsburgh at Chicago White Sox | Rate Field | Partly Cloudy, 82F | Wind: 8 mph SSE
Warm enough, but an eight mile an hour breeze is working against the hitters and mostly wins. I've got no read on this game either way.
Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee | American Family Field | Overcast, 79F | Wind: 10 mph S
The roof projects to stay open and ten is coming in. Decent conditions, wrong direction, and the market has this at 7.5 for a reason.
Texas at Seattle | T-Mobile Park | Clear, 70F | Wind: 7 mph N
Seventy degrees and a breeze in from center at the coldest yard on the slate. This is the one game where I'd knock a bat down.
Milwaukee and Seattle are the only two retractable roofs in play tonight and both project open, so every game on this slate gets graded on the forecast.
Model Bets
Colorado +1.5 (+128) | Colorado at New York Yankees | Edge: +2.7%
The simulation has the Rockies staying inside a run 44.6% of the time and the market prices that at 41.9%. It also runs straight into my top stack, since I'm building around the Yankees putting up six, so treat the two as the disagreement they are rather than pretending they fit together.
These come off the game simulation and are posted for tracking only. Nothing here is a wagering recommendation.
HR Calls
Ben Rice (NYY) DK $5,700 | FD $3,800 vs Gabriel Hughes
DraftKings has him $300 under Judge and I think they've got the wrong Yankee at the top of the price sheet. Rice: .275 xISO, 16.7% barrel rate, 52.1% hard contact, 45.5% of it pulled. Hughes is at 3.63 BB/9 with a 6.17 xFIP behind it, and a righty pitching from behind that often winds up feeding hitters strikes they can drive, which is how a 6.22 ERA happens. Left-handed power at Yankee Stadium is running a 136 index tonight.
Teoscar Hernandez (LAD) DK $4,200 | FD $3,000 vs Nick Lodolo
Right-handed bats have been taking Lodolo apart all season and DraftKings hasn't adjusted. Righties own a 1.92 HR/9 and a 23.0% HR/FB mark off him, slugging .500 and squaring up 45.5% of their contact. Hernandez brings a .205 xISO with barrels on 13.6% of contact and he's been the better version of himself at a .235 ISO. Ninety-one degrees in Chavez Ravine adds better than 14% to home run odds, and at $3,000 against a FanDuel hitter ceiling of $4,300 he costs less there than his DraftKings tag suggests.
Luis Campusano (SD) DK $3,600 | FD $2,500 vs Riley Cornelio
Washington is throwing a bullpen game and that's the whole call. Cornelio has 22.2 innings across 12 appearances with 8.51 BB/9, and Washington used him for 2.2 innings out of the pen six days ago, so the Padres are hitting into a relief corps at a 6.32 xFIP and 2.36 HR/9. Nobody else on this slate is looking at a group that bad. Campusano barrels 12.5% of his contact, pulls 40.2% of it, sits at a .200 ISO and hits sixth. No bat in this section costs less on either sheet.
Stacks to Target
1. New York Yankees vs Gabriel Hughes (R) | Implied Total: 5.96 | ROO Score: 6.5/10 | CASH
Top implied number on the board and the least complicated argument in the article. Hughes: 6.22 ERA, 6.17 xFIP, 59.2% strand rate, 3.63 BB/9. Seven of the nine Yankees hit from the left side, and those seven carry a 20.1% HR/FB with hard contact on 47% of what they put in play, which is exactly what you want in this ballpark. Colorado's bullpen is worse than the guy starting it, 5.01 xFIP and 1.18 HR/9, so the Rockies have no better answer waiting in the middle innings. Everyone is going to be here and I don't have a reason to be anywhere else.
Core pieces: Ben Rice $5,700 (L), Cody Bellinger $4,900 (L), Jazz Chisholm $4,700 (L), Spencer Jones $3,400 (L), Ryan McMahon $2,700 (L)
2. Toronto vs Jack Perkins (R) | Implied Total: 5.88 | ROO Score: 5.5/10 | CASH
Second-highest total of the night, in the park nobody remembers to check. Perkins: 6.56 ERA, 6.37 xFIP, 4.34 BB/9, 1.66 HR/9. He does miss bats, 10.72 K/9, and that's the fair counterargument, except Toronto strikes out on only 16.9% of its trips against right-handed pitching, so the whiffs he needs are the hardest ones available today. What I can't tell you is how many of those balls in play find grass. Springer, Guerrero, Kirk, Okamoto and Clement all hit from the right side, where Perkins has allowed a .471 slugging mark and a 15.1% HR/FB. Sutter Health Park is adding 15.5% to home run odds at 93 degrees, and the Athletics pen behind him is at a 4.57 xFIP. This one doesn't have to be clever.
Core pieces: George Springer $4,900 (R), Vladimir Guerrero $4,700 (R), Kazuma Okamoto $4,500 (R), Alejandro Kirk $4,200 (R), Ernie Clement $3,700 (R)
3. Atlanta vs Freddy Peralta (R) | Implied Total: 4.38 | ROO Score: 4.5/10 | GPP
I want one stack the field won't crowd, and Atlanta is it. The Braves sit sixth in implied runs tonight, which is the only reason this spot is buyable. Peralta has a 4.96 ERA with 1.41 HR/9, and lefties have taken him for 1.60 HR/9 at a 19.1% HR/FB while slugging .462. Baldwin leads off, Olson bats third, Harris bats fourth and Yastrzemski bats ninth. Atlanta's lefties post a 111 wRC+ off right-handed pitching and clear the fence on 18.9% of their fly balls. The Tampa Bay bullpen is at a 6.25 xFIP and 2.47 HR/9, and only Washington's group is worse tonight, so the back half of this game is just as soft. Truist at 87 degrees handles the rest.
Core pieces: Matt Olson $5,000 (L), Drake Baldwin $4,900 (L), Michael Harris $4,400 (L), Ozzie Albies $4,300 (S), Mike Yastrzemski $2,700 (L)
Pitchers
Cam Schlittler (NYY) vs COL | DK $11,200 | FD $10,900 | CASH
Colorado is implied for 2.04 runs, the smallest number on the slate, and this is the arm you aim at it. Schlittler is at 11.04 K/9 with a 31.0% strikeout rate and 2.21 BB/9, though the 2.05 ERA is sitting a bit under the 2.78 xFIP on an 82.9% strand rate, so don't buy the shutout every time out. You don't need one here. Misiorowski costs $500 more and misses more bats if you want the tournament version of this exact idea. In cash I'd rather own the opponent.
Tarik Skubal (LAD) vs CIN | DK $10,700 | FD $10,600 | CASH
I went looking for the case against him and there isn't one. Skubal: 2.86 ERA, 2.56 xFIP, 2.20 SIERA, 10.83 K/9, 1.50 BB/9. The ERA sits above both estimators because he's carried a .300 BABIP and stranded only 75.3% of runners, which means the results have trailed the pitching. Cincinnati is implied for 2.13. Plenty of people will roster him and that doesn't bother me at all.
Casey Mize (SD) vs WSH | DK $7,500 | FD $8,400 | CASH
Cheapest real edge on the board. Washington is implied for 2.99 in Petco, San Diego is a heavy favorite at -193, and Mize is at 2.23 BB/9 behind a 3.66 ERA and a 4.01 xFIP that agree with each other, so none of this is on loan. The price is what closes it for me: $7,500 here against $8,400 on FanDuel, which is backwards, and on DraftKings saving three thousand dollars at the position is what lets you run a full stack. He's the least popular of the arms I'm writing up.
Sean Burke (CWS) vs PIT | DK $8,200 | FD $9,400 | GPP
The strikeouts are real and the ERA is not. Burke has a 3.21 ERA sitting under a 5.39 xFIP, and the whole gap traces to an 81.0% strand rate nobody keeps. Buy the 9.75 K/9 and the 26.3% strikeout rate instead, because those show up again next start. Pittsburgh is implied for 3.65 and swings through plenty. Two homers and seven punchouts is the likeliest shape of his night, which is a tournament line and not a cash one.
Bryce Miller (SEA) vs TEX | DK $7,800 | FD $8,300 | GPP
Everything that beats Miller leaves the yard, 1.56 HR/9 with a 5.80 xFIP well north of the 4.03 ERA, and tonight he's working in the one park that takes it away. T-Mobile at seventy degrees with a north wind is the only park on the slate cutting home run odds tonight. He misses bats at a 13.4% swinging-strike clip and 8.71 K/9, and the Rangers are implied for 3.56. The reason he isn't in my cash tier: Texas leans left, and lefties have already gotten to him for 1.49 HR/9 at a 17.0% HR/FB.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
Michael Wacha (KC), Negative Regression Candidate
A 3.37 ERA on a 4.09 xFIP is the smaller half of what's wrong here. Wacha has run a .258 BABIP with 78.3% of his baserunners stranded, and righties have already put up 1.99 HR/9 against him at a 25.4% HR/FB, slugging .513 along the way. Now put him in 101 degrees with the wind blowing out. Moreno and Arenado hit third and fourth for Arizona with Perdomo and Marte both able to turn around to that side, and I'd rather have those bats than the arm.
David Peterson (CHC), Positive Regression Candidate
That 5.39 ERA is ugly and most of it isn't his doing. Peterson has allowed a .328 BABIP while stranding just 65.5% of his runners, and a 2.77 SIERA says the strikeout and walk profile underneath is far better than the runs he's been charged with. He's still not a play tonight against Milwaukee at $6,000, and I won't talk myself into one. He's the arm I'd buy the next time he draws a soft lineup.
Final Thoughts
Cash builds start with Schlittler and Mize, about $18,700 of the $50,000, which leaves more than enough room for a real Yankees block. Rice, Bellinger and Chisholm are the three I want most from that side. Ryan McMahon at $2,700 batting eighth is how you afford all three. If doubling into one game bothers you, Toronto gets you the same shape for less money, with Okamoto at $4,500 and Clement at $3,700 carrying most of the weight.
Two things worth a second look before lock. Kansas City is the only game where the forecast can still swing the math, because at a hundred degrees with the wind blowing out, a two mile an hour change costs you 10% of the home run boost. The other is the San Diego card, where Campusano batting sixth against a bullpen game is the difference between a punt and a real play, and sliding him to eighth or ninth costs a trip to the plate.
For tournaments I keep landing back on Atlanta. The Braves draw a starter who surrenders a home run every six innings to lefty bats, plus a pen at 6.25 behind him, and I don't get that pairing at this ownership often. Pair the Olson and Harris core with Yastrzemski at $2,700 and the five-man block costs less than four Yankees. If you want one more swing, Spencer Jones at $3,400 hitting fifth in the Bronx hits the ball hard enough that the price won't hold.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.