Weather to Watch
Houston at Philadelphia | Citizens Bank Park | Overcast, 84F | Wind: 10 mph S
Ten out to the pull side in Philly. Nothing else on the schedule tonight scores runs like this park will, and the only thing in the way is the guy on the mound. I'll get to him.
Cleveland at Baltimore | Oriole Park at Camden Yards | Overcast, 89F | Wind: 11 mph S
Eighty-nine degrees at Camden with the wind pushing out. Only Philly grades better tonight, and this one is going to get overlooked, which is how I like my tournament stacks.
Cincinnati at Los Angeles | Dodger Stadium | Partly Cloudy, 90F | Wind: 4 mph WSW
Ninety degrees in Chavez Ravine, and you can ignore the four-mile breeze. The temperature carries it on its own, which is plenty when the Dodgers are the ones hitting.
Pittsburgh at Chicago | Rate Field | Partly Cloudy, 84F | Wind: 10 mph W
A ten-mile wind out to left at Rate Field moves the needle. The White Sox lean left-handed at the top, so it plays for them to the opposite field more than straight over the wall.
Tampa Bay at Atlanta | Truist Park | Overcast, 90F | Wind: 3 mph ENE
Truist is 90 degrees with three miles an hour of wind coming in, which amounts to nothing. Call it a neutral-to-good park and move on.
Chicago at Milwaukee | American Family Field | Overcast, 84F | Wind: 9 mph W
The roof is forecast open with a mild wind out. American Family still suppresses home runs, so I wouldn't let the forecast talk me into anything here.
Colorado at New York | Yankee Stadium | Overcast, 81F | Wind: 9 mph S
Nine miles an hour crossing at the Stadium is a small nudge. The short porch and the guy on the mound matter a lot more tonight than the wind does.
Los Angeles at Boston | Fenway Park | Overcast, 79F | Wind: 12 mph S
No park tonight has more wind pushing out than Fenway's twelve, though 79 degrees keeps the total effect modest. It still helps.
Arizona at Kansas City | Kauffman Stadium | Light Drizzle, 79F | Wind: 14 mph NE
Avoid. Fourteen miles an hour straight in with drizzle and 77% humidity makes this the worst hitting environment on the slate by a wide margin.
Miami has the roof projected shut for the Mets game, so you're playing the park there and ignoring the forecast.
Model Bets
Under 8.5 (-105) | New York Mets at Miami Marlins | Edge: +2.6%
The simulation has the under near 51.5% while the devigged market sits around 48.9%, which is thin but real. loanDepot has the roof projected shut and it's the hardest park on the board to drive a ball out of, which is also why neither of these lineups shows up in my stacks.
These come off the game simulation and are posted for tracking only. Nothing here is a wagering recommendation.
HR Calls
Aaron Judge (NYY) DK $6,000 | FD $3,900 vs Tomoyuki Sugano
Judge is the one bat on this board I'd pay any price for, and on DraftKings $6,000 isn't much of a price. Sugano against right-handers: 5.28 K/9, 1.09 HR/9, 46.8% hard contact allowed. He can't miss a bat and he doesn't keep the ball on the ground, which is the combination that turns a routine fly ball into a row-ten souvenir. The two sites price him differently: he's $3,900 on FanDuel against a $4,300 ceiling for hitters, so he takes a much bigger bite out of that roster than he does here.
Coby Mayo (BAL) DK $4,200 | FD $2,900 vs Foster Griffin
DraftKings is underpricing this one and it isn't close. Mayo: .429 ISO, 23.4% barrel rate, 51.1% hard contact, 75.3 mph bat speed, hitting cleanup at Camden with the wind out and the thermometer at 89. Righties have taken Griffin deep at a 1.25 HR/9 clip with 18.6% of their fly balls clearing, and Baltimore's right-handed side owns a 108 wRC+ and a .182 ISO against lefties. In that price range I don't see a better power spot tonight.
Spencer Jones (NYY) DK $3,100 | FD $2,800 vs Tomoyuki Sugano
Second bite at the same pitcher, and this one costs almost nothing. Sugano comes apart against left-handed bats: 2.47 HR/9, .572 slug allowed, 24.1% HR/FB. Jones bats fifth with a 60.9% hard-contact rate and 76.2 mph bat speed, and the short porch grades out at a 136 park factor for left-handed power. Under $3,500 with that swing, I'd take that shot.
Stacks to Target
1. New York Yankees vs Tomoyuki Sugano (R) | Implied Total: 6.13 | ROO Score: 6.6/10 | CASH
Colorado can't get lefties out and they're walking into a park where that gets punished. Sugano has taken a beating all year: 5.21 ERA, 1.85 HR/9, and just 14.0% of the hitters he faces strike out. Lefties have slugged .572 off him with a 24.1% HR/FB, and the Yankees run seven of them through this order. If Colorado goes to the pen early you get a 4.92 xFIP group that's been worse than he has. Six runs is the only six on the board and everyone can see it. I'm on it anyway.
Core pieces: Aaron Judge $6,000 (R), Ben Rice $5,500 (L), Luis Garcia $5,000 (L), Cody Bellinger $4,500 (L), Spencer Jones $3,100 (L)
2. Los Angeles Dodgers vs Rhett Lowder (R) | Implied Total: 6.06 | ROO Score: 6.3/10 | CASH
Lowder gives up nearly all of his damage in one direction, and Los Angeles is built to punish that. Against left-handed hitters he carries a 5.48 xFIP with 4.93 BB/9 and 1.56 HR/9, and he's surrendered a .468 slug to that side. Dodger lefties post a 120 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, and Ohtani and Freeman hit first and second with Muncy and Tucker behind them. He handles righties fine, so I wouldn't call this a full-lineup smash spot. Target the left side and stop there. Cincinnati's bullpen at a 3.27 xFIP is the best pen any of my three stacks has to get past.
Core pieces: Shohei Ohtani $6,600 (L), Freddie Freeman $5,100 (L), Mookie Betts $4,900 (R), Max Muncy $4,300 (L), Kyle Tucker $3,600 (L)
3. Baltimore Orioles vs Foster Griffin (L) | Implied Total: 4.18 | ROO Score: 3.5/10 | GPP
I'm moving this one ahead of two better-ranked spots on purpose, and I'll defend it. Griffin's 3.26 ERA reads clean until you find the 18.1% HR/FB and the 79.3% strand rate holding it up. Righties have slugged .408 against him off a 3.87 xFIP. Baltimore answers with six righties in the order, a 108 wRC+ and a .182 ISO against left-handed pitching, and a 46.8% hard-contact rate. Add the Camden weather I flagged up top. One catch I won't hide: Cleveland's bullpen sits at a 2.80 xFIP, so you want the runs before the sixth. Barely anyone will roster this lineup, which is the whole reason it's here.
Core pieces: Coby Mayo $4,200 (R), Gunnar Henderson $4,600 (L), Christian Encarnacion-Strand $4,400 (R), Pete Alonso $5,300 (R), Rece Hinds $2,700 (R)
Pitchers
Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) vs HOU | DK $11,500 | FD $10,500 | CASH
I tried to build a case against paying $11,500 tonight and got nowhere with it. Sanchez has thrown 181.1 innings of 2.58 ERA ball with a 2.46 xFIP underneath, so none of it is smoke, and a .335 BABIP says the results have run behind the work. He draws Houston at a 3.27 implied total, second-lowest on the board, with 10.29 K/9 and a 58.6% ground-ball rate. That ground-ball profile is what you want in a park playing this hot. He tops the FanDuel board at $10,500 as well. Pay up anyway.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) vs CIN | DK $11,000 | FD $9,900 | CASH
Cincinnati has less going for it than any lineup on the slate at a 2.44 implied total, and Yamamoto is most of the reason the number is that low. I'll be upfront that his 2.67 ERA is running ahead of a 3.16 xFIP on the back of a .224 BABIP and an 80.7% strand rate, so the surface line flatters him. Against this lineup it doesn't much matter. He's the most popular arm on the board and that's fine, because he's also the steadiest.
Kevin Gausman (CHC) vs MIL | DK $8,600 | FD $8,700 | CASH
Gausman's ERA is lying to you. It sits at 4.39 while the xFIP says 3.33, the strand rate is a rough 68.3%, and the BABIP is .312, which is the signature of a pitcher getting worse results than he's earned. He still misses bats at 9.16 K/9, and Milwaukee sits at a 4.09 implied total in a park that knocks down home runs. If you're saving anywhere at pitcher tonight, save it here.
Logan Henderson (MIL) vs CHC | DK $10,000 | FD $10,100 | GPP
The two sites disagree on Henderson in a way you can use. He's $1,500 cheaper than Sanchez on DraftKings but costs more than Yamamoto on FanDuel, so he's a different roster decision depending on where you're playing. The stuff is real, a 30.0% strikeout rate against a 2.98 xFIP, but a .212 BABIP and an 87.6% strand rate are propping up that 2.49 ERA, and he gives up 1.30 HR/9 with a 50.0% fly-ball rate. Ceiling arm. I wouldn't anchor cash to him.
Davis Martin (CWS) vs PIT | DK $6,700 | FD $6,900 | GPP
He'll go lightly rostered and I understand the reasoning, because he's averaged under four innings across his last five starts and you can't win a cash game on that. In a tournament it reads differently. The Pirates carry a 3.60 implied total, Martin's underlying work is better than his 4.15 ERA with a .318 BABIP behind him, and he's held right-handed hitters to a 3.53 xFIP. At $6,700 he frees up close to $5,000 for the bats.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
Foster Griffin (CLE), Negative Regression Candidate
Griffin's season reads like a solid mid-rotation year and the 3.26 ERA backs it up, but the 3.72 xFIP tells a duller story. The tells are a 79.3% strand rate and an 18.1% HR/FB, and when a pitcher strands that many runners while also giving up that share of his fly balls over the wall, one of those two numbers usually breaks. Camden with the wind out is a bad night to find out which one. Baltimore's righties are the ones collecting.
Shane Baz (BAL), Positive Regression Candidate
Baz has pitched better than a 3.92 ERA. The xFIP is 4.04 and the FIP is 3.39, but the BABIP against left-handed hitters is .338 and the strand rate is a miserable 68.7%, which is the kind of luck that doesn't hold all year. I'm not calling him a play tonight against a Cleveland lineup that handles right-handed pitching fine, and Camden isn't the park for it either. Keep the name, though. The price should keep sliding and I'd rather buy him in a pitcher's park in two weeks.
Final Thoughts
The cash foundation is Sanchez at $11,500, which means one expensive arm and then discipline everywhere else. The cleanest way to do it is a four-bat Yankee core around Judge and Ben Rice, with Spencer Jones at $3,100 as the piece that makes the math work. If you'd rather not pay the top price, Gausman at $8,600 is the same idea for nearly three thousand less, and the savings put Ohtani or Freeman on the other side of the roster.
Two things I'm watching before lock. Colorado's bullpen usage matters more than usual, because Sugano has averaged 4.8 innings over his last five starts and a 4.92 xFIP group behind him is what turns a good Yankee stack into a great one. In Baltimore, Coby Mayo hitting cleanup is the version of that lineup I want, and if he drops in the order, Encarnacion-Strand at sixth becomes the better single piece.
For tournaments, Baltimore is where I'm overweight. The two obvious stacks are going to be everywhere, and taking six Orioles righties into 89 degrees with the wind out costs almost nothing in roster share while the ceiling holds up fine. Pair it with Davis Martin and you've got a build that looks nothing like the field's without giving much up on paper. Junior Caminero at $6,400 is another one worth a look if you want a bat almost nobody else will have.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.