Weather to Watch
Tampa Bay at Atlanta | Truist Park | Clear, 86F | Wind: 3 mph SSE
Eighty-six and clear. The breeze is a three mile an hour non-factor, so the temperature is the whole story here, and it's worth roughly 9% on home run odds in a park that plays big before you add a single degree.
Houston at Philadelphia | Citizens Bank Park | Overcast, 87F | Wind: 10 mph W
Ten crossing at Citizens Bank. The direction matters more than the speed because it's pointed at the lefty pull side, and left-handed home run odds jump close to 20% here today while right-handers get about a third of that. This is the game to attack.
Texas at Seattle | T-Mobile Park | Overcast, 66F | Wind: 6 mph WNW
Sixty-six degrees with the roof projecting open, roughly twenty degrees cooler than the two eastern parks. Home run odds tick negative here. Mark every bat in this game down before you get to anything else.
HR Calls
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) DK $6,200 | FD $4,100 vs Cristian Javier
Javier's trouble is that he can't throw strikes and can't keep the ball down. He walks 4.02 per nine with a 1.57 WHIP and 1.65 HR/9, and an arm that far behind in counts has to groove one eventually. Schwarber is who you want in the box when it shows up. He's carrying a .294 ISO with an 18.2% barrel rate, 53.0% hard contact and 54.9% of it pulled, leading off in a park adding nearly 20% to left-handed home run odds. On FanDuel he's $4,100 against a $4,200 hitter ceiling, so he's the priciest bat on that sheet while DraftKings lets you have him for a much smaller slice of the cap.
Matt Olson (ATL) DK $4,800 | FD $3,700 vs Nick Martinez
Olson keeps getting priced like a complementary piece and he keeps hitting third. Atlanta hasn't forgotten what he is. He barrels 16.7% of his contact with a .295 xISO and 52.4% hard contact, and he's stepping in at 86 degrees at Truist. Martinez has given up 12 homers to left-handed bats while only 6.5% of his fly balls have cleared, a rate that doesn't hold. If Tampa Bay reaches the pen, the group behind him carries a 6.21 xFIP with 2.38 HR/9 against lefties.
Taylor Trammell (HOU) DK $2,800 | FD $2,400 vs Zack Wheeler
Yes, it's Wheeler, and I'd take that swing anyway. Everything that beats him comes from the left side: 1.54 HR/9, a .407 slug allowed, 24.1% of the fly balls to that side leaving the park, and 3.67 BB/9 from an arm that's normally stingy with free passes. Trammell barrels 13.8% of his contact and pulls 47.3% of it, hitting eighth in the one park today where lefty power gets the biggest lift. Yordan Alvarez at $6,000 buys the same argument with more certainty attached.
Stacks to Target
1. Philadelphia vs Cristian Javier (R) | Implied Total: 5.3 | ROO Score: 4.7/10 | CASH
Philadelphia is implied for 5.3 runs and nothing else on this board clears 4.4. Javier: 6.04 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 4.02 BB/9, 1.65 HR/9. One wrinkle, and I'd rather name it than bury it. His splits are far uglier against right-handed hitters, a .383 wOBA and 2.39 HR/9, but Philadelphia's righty group is the weak half of this lineup at a 77 wRC+, while the left-handed side carries a 111 wRC+, a .181 ISO, and 19.0% of the fly balls off those bats leave the yard. The wind settles it. Lefty home run odds are up close to 20% at Citizens Bank today, and Houston's pen has been good at a 3.42 xFIP, so I'm building this one to score early instead of late.
Core pieces: Kyle Schwarber $6,200 (L), Bryce Harper $5,700 (L), Trea Turner $4,300 (R), Luis Arraez $4,200 (L), Bryson Stott $4,100 (L)
2. Atlanta vs Nick Martinez (R) | Implied Total: 4.4 | ROO Score: 4.6/10 | CASH
This stack is a bet on what happens after Martinez leaves. He's a soft-contact arm with almost no swing and miss at 5.34 K/9, so the first five innings probably won't be loud, and I'd be selling you something if I claimed otherwise. Tampa Bay's relief corps is the problem: a 6.21 xFIP with 2.38 HR/9 allowed to left-handed bats, and Atlanta answers with Baldwin, Olson, Harris and Yastrzemski from that side, a group posting a 109 wRC+ off righties with a .182 ISO. Martinez has also allowed 12 homers to lefties while stranding 82.0% of his runners, and that pairing usually breaks in one direction. Add 86 degrees at Truist and the ceiling is real. The field will be on this lineup. I'm fine sharing it in cash.
Core pieces: Ronald Acuna $5,800 (R), Matt Olson $4,800 (L), Drake Baldwin $4,600 (L), Michael Harris $4,300 (L), Mike Yastrzemski $2,700 (L)
3. Tampa Bay vs Martín Pérez (L) | Implied Total: 4.1 | ROO Score: 3.8/10 | GPP
This is the contrarian side of the board and the reason sits right there in the ERA. Pérez reads fine at 3.26 until you find the 5.37 xFIP under it, the .253 BABIP and the 79.1% strand rate. Against right-handed bats he walks 4.69 per nine and strikes out only 6.32, and Tampa Bay answers with seven righties carrying a 118 wRC+ and a .179 ISO versus right-handers. He's stingy with home runs to that side at 0.71 HR/9, so this stack scores on traffic and doubles more than on swings over the wall, and Atlanta's pen at a 4.03 xFIP and 1.38 HR/9 is where it gets messy. Leave the lefties out. Tampa Bay's left-handed hitters own a 74 wRC+ and a .074 ISO against southpaws, so Aranda and Simpson are the two pieces I'd skip.
Core pieces: Junior Caminero $6,400 (R), Yandy Diaz $4,900 (R), Jonny DeLuca $3,900 (R), Ryan Vilade $3,400 (R), Jorge Mateo $2,900 (R)
Pitchers
Zack Wheeler (PHI) vs HOU | DK $10,000 | FD $10,200 | CASH
I spent a while trying to talk myself off Wheeler at $10,000 and got nowhere. Wheeler's 3.24 ERA sits on a 3.01 xFIP and a 2.68 SIERA, and when both estimators agree with the ERA you can believe the ERA. He's punching out 29.8% of everyone who steps in, at 10.78 K/9. Houston is implied for 3.2, with only Texas priced lower, and their right-handed hitters have managed just a 95 wRC+ in same-side matchups. He tops the FanDuel sheet at $10,200 while DraftKings prices him $1,200 above deGrom, so the two boards ask you for different things. He'll be popular. That isn't a reason to look elsewhere.
Jacob deGrom (TEX) vs SEA | DK $8,800 | FD $9,500 | CASH
The ERA is the worst of the three arms I like today and it's also the most misleading number in this section. Everything underneath the 3.96 disagrees with it: a 2.89 xFIP, a 2.50 SIERA, 10.94 K/9 and a 17.5% swinging-strike rate, with only 72.7% of his baserunners stranded. Seattle is implied for 3.5 and sends six left-handed or switch bats through the order, and left-handed hitters have hit .212/.262/.374 against him. FanDuel charges more for him than for Gilbert while DraftKings goes the other way, so on DraftKings he's the discount and on FanDuel he isn't. He's the heaviest-rostered arm today. He's earned it.
Logan Gilbert (SEA) vs TEX | DK $9,000 | FD $9,300 | GPP
Texas is implied for 3.0 and no lineup today is priced lower, and T-Mobile at 66 degrees is the only park this afternoon taking home runs away. That's the whole case for him, and it's a good one. One thing keeps him out of my cash tier, the same thing that has beaten him all season: 1.42 HR/9 overall and 1.76 against right-handed hitters, who have slugged .466 with 23.0% of their fly balls leaving. Langford, Burger and Duran can each end his afternoon with one swing. Of the three arms I'd actually roster, he's the one the fewest people will own. In a tournament that's the trade you want.
Martín Pérez (ATL) vs TB | DK $6,300 | FD $7,400 | GPP
This is the only way under $7,000 at the position, so be honest about what you're buying. A .253 BABIP and a 79.1% strand rate are holding up the 3.26 ERA, the xFIP underneath says 5.37, and he strikes out 6.81 per nine, so the strikeout upside isn't there either. He does get Tampa Bay at a 4.1 implied total, at home. FanDuel charges $1,100 more for him than DraftKings does, so the DraftKings tag is the one worth using. Small share, tournaments only.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
Nick Martinez (TB), Negative Regression Candidate
A 3.04 ERA on a 4.30 xFIP is a wide gap and everything propping it up is the sort of thing that stops. Martinez has stranded 82.0% of his runners on a .266 BABIP, and just 6.5% of the fly balls against him have cleared, about half what a normal pitcher lives with. He does pound the zone at 1.35 BB/9. The problem is contact: 5.34 K/9 means nearly everything gets put in play, and Atlanta's left-handed hitters are the group best set up to collect.
Martín Pérez (ATL), Negative Regression Candidate
Two of these in the same game is unusual and it's not a coincidence. Pérez runs a 3.26 ERA against a 5.37 xFIP, the widest gap of any starter today, on a .253 BABIP with 79.1% of his baserunners stranded. He walks 3.91 per nine, misses almost no bats at 6.81 K/9, and 40.0% of the contact against him is hard. Both starters at Truist have been living on results their work hasn't earned. That's most of why both lineups made my stack list.
Final Thoughts
Wheeler at $10,000 plus a Philadelphia block is where I start, and on a three-game slate you can afford both without much strain. Schwarber, Harper and Arraez give you the lefty core, Trea Turner at $4,300 is the righty I'd add to it, and Mike Yastrzemski at $2,700 hitting ninth for Atlanta is how the salary gets there. If the top price bothers you, deGrom at $8,800 saves $1,200 and hands you the better strikeout profile, and that $1,200 buys Caminero in a tournament build.
The wind at Citizens Bank is the one number worth refreshing before first pitch. Lefty home run odds there are riding on a ten mile an hour push toward the pull side, and if that falls to four or five, the gap between Philadelphia and the rest of this board narrows in a hurry. Seattle projects to keep the roof open, which is what the 66 degree read already assumes, so the only surprise available in that game makes a cold park play colder.
The tournament lever I like most is Houston, and I know how that reads with Wheeler on the mound. Their left-handed hitters are the best platoon group on this board at a 122 wRC+ with a .199 ISO and 45.0% hard contact, Wheeler surrenders 1.54 HR/9 to that side, and the ballpark is pointed straight at them. Alvarez, Varsho and Trammell cost $12,000 together on DraftKings and that trio will go lightly rostered. The second lever is Tampa Bay. Caminero is the priciest bat on the whole slate at $6,400 and one of the thinnest-rostered, and I'll pay that without thinking hard about it.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.