Weather to Watch
Seattle at Athletics | Sutter Health Park | Clear, 83F | Wind: 12 mph SW
Clear and 83 degrees with the wind blowing out at 12 mph. Home run odds climb better than 15% here, nothing else on the slate gets within 9 points of that, and the yard already plays small before the forecast touches it.
San Diego at San Francisco | Oracle Park | Clear, 61F | Wind: 17 mph WNW
Wind blowing out at 17 mph, the strongest on the schedule, and that's the only reason Oracle grades positive tonight. At 61 degrees it claws most of that back, so call it mildly helpful rather than a green light.
Philadelphia at Atlanta | Truist Park | Drizzle, 76F | Wind: 5 mph SSW
The rain chance sits at 18%, and that's the number I'd watch here rather than a 5 mph wind pushing out. Truist is neutral-to-good on its own and a 76-degree evening nudges it a little higher.
Cleveland at Minnesota | Target Field | Overcast, 78F | Wind: 13 mph S
Wind crossing at 13 mph at Target Field on a warm overcast night. Crosswinds are mostly noise, so credit the 78 degrees for what little you get here, and it lands as a small boost.
New York Mets at New York Yankees | Yankee Stadium | Clear, 77F | Wind: 5 mph NNW
A 5 mph crosswind in the Bronx is close to nothing. That leaves the ballpark itself as the entire argument for left-handed power in this one.
Kansas City at Boston | Fenway Park | Clear, 73F | Wind: 5 mph WNW
Fenway, clear, 73 degrees, with the wind sliding across at 5 mph rather than out. That turns into doubles off the wall more often than balls over it, and the numbers agree at a modest bump.
Chicago White Sox at St. Louis | Busch Stadium | Overcast, 75F | Wind: 3 mph SE
Overcast with a 3 mph wind. The forecast isn't deciding anything here, so let the matchup do it.
Cincinnati at Milwaukee | American Family Field | Clear, 74F | Wind: 10 mph SE
The roof projects open and the wind is coming in at 10 mph, which drags run scoring down better than 3%. I'd mark both lineups down even though the total reads 8.
Baltimore at Toronto | Rogers Centre | Clear, 67F | Wind: 5 mph E
Coolest spot on the board at 67 degrees, with a 5 mph crosswind and the roof forecast to stay open. Home run odds run negative, and this is the one game where I'd fade power outright.
Chase Field and loanDepot park both project their roofs shut, and Tropicana never opens. Park factor settles those three on its own.
Model Bets
Athletics +1.5 (-114) | Seattle at Athletics | Edge: +2.8%
The simulation has the Athletics covering at 53.7% against a devigged market number of 51.0%. I'll flag the obvious tension rather than bury it: Seattle is my top stack below, and this is a bet on the game staying inside a run. Both can land if Seattle scores six and wins by one, but the two calls are pointed in different directions and you should know that going in.
Over 10 (-108) | Seattle at Athletics | Edge: +2.1%
Ten is already the highest total on the slate and the simulation still wants more, at 51.7% against 49.6% from the market. Jeffrey Springs and George Kirby in an 83-degree park with the wind blowing out is about as clean as this bet gets.
These come off the game simulation and are posted for tracking only. Nothing here is a wagering recommendation.
HR Calls
Roman Anthony (BOS) DK $5,000 | FD $3,000 vs Seth Lugo
Boston keeps writing him into the leadoff spot and he keeps earning it. Anthony carries a .220 xISO with a 15.5% barrel rate and 50% hard contact, a profile a batting order builds around rather than hides. Lugo is the arm that lets you find out, because he strikes out 6.74 per 9 and the ball goes into play constantly, and lefties have slugged .477 off him while hitting 43.5% of their contact hard. He's $5,000 here against $3,000 on FanDuel, where the hitter ceiling is $4,300, so he's an expensive bat on both sheets and DraftKings is where I'd rather pay it.
Corey Seager (TEX) DK $4,200 | FD $3,300 vs Merrill Kelly
DraftKings has this one wrong and I don't think it's close. Kelly walks 4.87 left-handed hitters per 9, and when a pitcher lives behind in the count that often he eventually has to serve one up just to get back even, which is how you wind up surrendering 1.91 HR/9 to that side with 20.9% of the fly balls they hit going over the wall. Seager hits second with a .243 xISO and a 15.8% barrel rate, and Kelly gives up hard contact on 43.8% of what lefties put in play. The roof projects shut at Chase, so nothing about the evening gets in the way.
Max Muncy (ATH) DK $3,400 | FD $2,700 vs George Kirby
Most of this argument belongs to the ballpark, and I'd rather say so than dress it up. Kirby is the better pitcher in the game and he handles right-handed bats fine, at a 3.11 xFIP with 1.35 BB/9 to that side, but the one thing he hasn't done is keep their fly balls in the yard, and 16.7% of them have left. Muncy bats seventh at $3,400 with 48.1% hard contact and a 71.7 mph bat speed, in the park getting the biggest home run boost on the board today. On FanDuel he's $2,700 against that same $4,300 ceiling, which is roughly as cheap as a real swing gets over there.
Stacks to Target
1. Seattle vs Jeffrey Springs (L) | Implied Total: 5.9 | ROO Score: 5.9/10 | CASH
Take the bad news first. Seattle's right-handed bats have managed just a 74 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, the weakest platoon group among my three stacks. I'm on them anyway, because Springs has no side to hide on. Righties have taken him deep at 2.29 HR/9 with 23.5% of what they lift leaving the yard and a .508 slug, and lefties sit at 2.39 HR/9 and .544, so there's no platoon door to walk through and no escape at 7.20 K/9 either. His 6.02 ERA rests on a 4.87 xFIP, which means the surface line isn't lying. Vegas has Seattle at 5.9 runs and Boston at 5.4 is the next name on the list. One catch I'd rather say out loud: the Athletics relief corps has been sharp at a 3.74 xFIP with 0.29 HR/9 over the last 30 days, so you want the damage while Springs is still in the game.
Core pieces: Randy Arozarena $5,900 (R), Cal Raleigh $5,400 (B), Julio Rodriguez $5,000 (R), Josh Naylor $4,000 (L), Taylor Ward $3,700 (R)
2. Boston vs Seth Lugo (R) | Implied Total: 5.4 | ROO Score: 5.5/10 | CASH
This stack is built on the late innings as much as the early ones. Lugo gets through an order on contact instead of swing and miss, and Boston's left-handed bats have slugged .477 against him with a .367 wOBA while a .353 BABIP works against him. Fenway does cap the ceiling and I won't pretend otherwise, so expect doubles off the wall before you expect a four-homer night, especially with Lugo allowing only 0.93 HR/9 to that side. It opens up once he's gone. Kansas City's relievers carry a 5.07 xFIP against left-handed hitters with 5.00 BB/9 and a .347 wOBA over the last 30 days, the weakest group behind any starter I'm attacking today. Anthony, Abreu and Duran are the three I want, with the switch hitters in front of them keeping the platoon edge intact.
Core pieces: Wilyer Abreu $5,500 (L), Roman Anthony $5,000 (L), Jarren Duran $4,000 (L), Mickey Gasper $3,900 (B), Adley Rutschman $3,700 (B)
3. Texas vs Merrill Kelly (R) | Implied Total: 4.1 | ROO Score: 4.0/10 | GPP
A 4.1 implied total doesn't look like a stack, which is most of why it's sitting here. Kelly against left-handed hitters is the softest matchup on the slate: a 5.64 xFIP, 5.29 K/9, 4.87 BB/9, 1.91 HR/9, a .501 slug allowed and 43.8% hard contact. Texas answers with lefties in the 1, 2, 4, 7 and 8 holes, and that group draws a walk 10.3% of the time against right-handers while hitting 42.2% of its contact hard. Arizona's bullpen doesn't repair the problem either, at a 4.47 xFIP with 1.52 HR/9 to that side. The roof projects shut at Chase, which removes the weather question and leaves a neutral park. Seattle is where the ownership is going tonight, and this is the other end of that trade.
Core pieces: Corey Seager $4,200 (L), Brandon Nimmo $3,700 (L), Joc Pederson $3,100 (L), Evan Carter $3,000 (L), Nicky Lopez $2,400 (L)
Pitchers
Chris Sale (ATL) vs PHI | DK $11,000 | FD $10,200 | CASH
Nobody on this board is implied for fewer runs than Philadelphia's 2.8, and Sale is why that number sits where it does. The 2.10 ERA is supported by a 2.68 xFIP and a 2.25 SIERA, and a .310 BABIP behind him says the results haven't even been fortunate. He's striking out 30.6% of the hitters he sees at 11.04 K/9 while walking 1.74 per 9, and only 0.54 balls per 9 leave the yard against him. The drizzle and the soft wind out at Truist is the single thing I'd rather not have on the ledger. He tops the DraftKings board at $11,000 but sits third on FanDuel at $10,200 behind Snell and Messick, so the cap hit isn't the same problem on both sheets. Everyone is going to have him and I don't see that as a reason to get clever.
Drew Rasmussen (TB) vs HOU | DK $9,200 | FD $9,700 | CASH
Houston at 2.9 implied is the second-lowest lineup on the board, and Rasmussen is the rare arm whose surface line and underlying work agree with each other. The 2.88 ERA, the 3.01 xFIP and the 2.75 SIERA all land in roughly the same place, and the 0.91 WHIP comes straight out of walking 1.59 per 9. He does surrender the occasional mistake, with a 14.8% home run to fly ball rate, though he's indoors at the Trop tonight where that matters less than it would anywhere else on this slate. That's $1,800 less than Sale on DraftKings for a floor nearly as sturdy.
Matthew Liberatore (STL) vs CWS | DK $7,000 | FD $7,500 | CASH
His ERA is going to talk you out of this, and it shouldn't. Liberatore reads 5.57 while the xFIP underneath says 3.93 and the SIERA says 3.47. A .339 BABIP and a 67.2% strand rate account for the distance between those numbers, and a pitcher keeps neither one. He's missing bats all year at 9.32 K/9. The honest warning is home runs, 1.62 per 9 on the season, but Busch is one of the harder parks on this board to clear and Chicago's right-handed bats are the group that would worry him most. At $7,000 here against $7,500 on FanDuel, this is where I'm saving if I pay up anywhere else, and hardly anyone will be on him.
Sonny Gray (BOS) vs KC | DK $9,000 | FD $9,800 | GPP
The 2.70 ERA is the prettiest number in this section and the least trustworthy. Gray has stranded 84.3% of his baserunners, which no starter holds onto for a full season, and the xFIP underneath reads 3.50. Call it a demotion of one tier. He still walks only 2.40 per 9 and Kansas City is implied for just 3.1, so the matchup itself is legitimate. I just won't anchor a cash lineup to results that luck has been paying for. FanDuel wants $9,800 while DraftKings asks $9,000, an $800 swing on the same arm, and at the FanDuel tag he gets much harder to justify.
Dustin May (MIL) vs CIN | DK $7,200 | FD $8,300 | GPP
The Reds sit at a 3.0 implied total with the wind coming in at American Family, which is the environment you want behind a pitcher whose luck has been rotten. May's 4.70 ERA conceals a 3.82 xFIP, a .324 BABIP and a 66.6% strand rate. The catch is real though. His last 5 outings have averaged 3.47 innings, and you can't build a cash lineup on that kind of length. In a tournament the strikeouts and the ballpark make the short leash easier to stomach.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
Robbie Ray (SD), Negative Regression Candidate
Ray's 3.54 ERA and his 5.07 xFIP are describing two different pitchers, and the xFIP is the one I trust. He walks 4.66 per 9, a .262 BABIP keeps the hit total down, and he has stranded 78.5% of the runners who reach. Right-handed hitters are where this should crack first: a 5.23 xFIP, 4.80 BB/9 and 1.55 HR/9 against that side. San Francisco is implied for only 3.4 and Oracle Park is a rough place to collect on any of it, so stacking against him tonight isn't the move. Just don't pay for the ERA when his price catches up to it.
Matthew Liberatore (STL), Positive Regression Candidate
I made the case above, so I'll keep this one short. A 5.57 ERA against a 3.93 xFIP is the widest positive gap among today's starters, and a .339 BABIP plus a 67.2% strand rate hold those two numbers apart, neither of which is a skill he owns. The strikeout rate has held at 9.32 per 9 all season, which is the part that tells you the arm is fine. If tonight doesn't work out, the price should stay low, and I'd keep buying it.
Final Thoughts
Sale at $11,000 with a four-bat Seattle block is the build I keep landing on, and Liberatore at $7,000 in the second pitcher slot is what makes it fit. Arozarena, Raleigh and Julio run $16,300 together, which sounds heavy until you do that arithmetic and find there's still room underneath. Max Muncy at $3,400 or Joc Pederson at $3,100 is the bat that gets you to the number at the bottom, and both of them come with a real swing attached rather than a warm body.
Two items worth a second look before lock. The drizzle at Truist is the only forecast on this slate that can still move, and an 18% rain chance in the game where I'm recommending an $11,000 pitcher is worth one refresh. The other is Kumar Rocker, making his first start in 12 days for Texas, and his last 5 turns have averaged 4.33 innings, so Arizona probably sees relievers earlier than usual tonight even though I've got the Rangers stacked on the opposite side.
For tournaments, Texas is the spot I keep circling back to. What Kelly does to lefties is the softest thing on this board, the Rangers send five of them through the order, and the roster share will be a fraction of what Seattle draws. The Athletics are the other one and they're close to free: Lawrence Butler at $4,200 and Max Muncy at $3,400 in the biggest home run park on the slate, with almost nobody standing in the way. Pair either group with Gray or May and you've built something the room won't have.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.