Weather to Watch
Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs | Wrigley Field | Clear, 86F | Wind: 10 mph SW
Clear, 86 degrees, wind out at 10 mph. That's the best place to hit on the whole board today, and it lands on a game with Paul Skenes in it, which tempts you to argue with the forecast. The wind doesn't care who's pitching, and I'm not going to either.
San Diego at San Francisco | Oracle Park | Clear, 67F | Wind: 19 mph WNW
The strongest wind of the day is 19 mph and it's pointed out, but it's 67 degrees at Oracle and the fences don't move. I'd treat this as Oracle playing closer to neutral than usual rather than a launching pad, which still matters when Michael King is the arm you're deciding on.
Cleveland at Minnesota | Target Field | Clear, 74F | Wind: 13 mph NW
A 13 mph wind out at 74 degrees is a real boost at a park that already plays fair. Gavin Williams gives up more homers than his strikeout rate would suggest, so the forecast and the pitcher pick are pulling against each other here.
Los Angeles Angels at Washington | Nationals Park | Overcast, 83F | Wind: 7 mph ESE
Warm and a little humid with a light crosswind, plus a 9% rain chance I'm ignoring. Nationals Park has been kind to right-handed power this year and the Angels run 8 right-handed bats at Andrew Alvarez.
Baltimore at Toronto | Rogers Centre | Overcast, 77F | Wind: 6 mph ESE
The roof is projected open, which puts a mild 77-degree day with a 6 mph crosswind on the board. Neutral. If it closes before first pitch, nothing changes for how I'd play either side.
Colorado at Detroit | Comerica Park | Overcast, 79F | Wind: 9 mph SW
Overcast, 79 degrees, and a 9 mph crosswind. Comerica still suppresses home runs even on a decent day, and this isn't a decent day for fly balls. The Detroit stack is about run scoring, not the long ball.
New York Mets at New York Yankees | Yankee Stadium | Overcast, 79F | Wind: 8 mph SSE
An 8 mph crosswind on a 79-degree afternoon does nothing for the short porch one way or the other. The park does the work here, the weather is just along for the ride.
Kansas City at Boston | Fenway Park | Partly Cloudy, 73F | Wind: 10 mph ENE
Of the 8 outdoor games, this is the forecast I'd hold against a stack. The wind is blowing in at 10 mph and it takes a few ticks off run scoring at Fenway, which is worth knowing when Boston carries the top implied total on the slate. Think gappers rather than homers.
Miami has the roof closed for the Dodgers, so loanDepot plays as a dome.
Model Bets
San Francisco +1.5 (-131) | San Diego at San Francisco | Edge: +2.5%
The simulation has the Giants covering the run line 56.7% of the time against a market that says 54.2%. Most of that gap is the read on Michael King, whose 3.00 ERA sits on a 4.27 xFIP, and I'll get to him in the Pitchers section.
Under 9 (-120) | Cleveland at Minnesota | Edge: +2.3%
The simulation puts the under at 54.5% against a devigged 52.2%, and the number has already dropped to 8.5 at most books since this was posted. I'll be honest that a 13 mph wind out at Target Field argues against it, so this one leans on Gavin Williams' strikeouts and a Twins lineup implied for only 4.25 runs.
These come off the game simulation and are posted for tracking only. Nothing here is a wagering recommendation.
HR Calls
Oneil Cruz (PIT) DK $6,700 | FD $4,000 vs Clay Holmes
Holmes is a ground-ball pitcher and I'm picking against him anyway. He runs a 56% ground-ball rate with a 0.52 HR/9, so on a normal day this is a matchup I'd skip. Today isn't normal, though. Cruz has a 17.5% barrel rate and 54% hard contact, his ISO across his last 30 days is .295, and he's hitting at Wrigley on an 86-degree afternoon with a 10 mph wind out. When Cruz lifts one, it goes, and the weather turns a warning-track fly into a seat. DraftKings has him as the most expensive hitter on the slate at $6,700, while FanDuel asks $4,000 against a hitter ceiling of $4,200, so the FD version is the easier fit.
Riley Greene (DET) DK $4,700 | FD $3,200 vs Tanner Gordon
Tanner Gordon is a fly-ball pitcher who gives up hard contact, and you don't need much more than that. He allows a 52% fly-ball rate and a 43% hard-hit rate, he's given up 1.64 HR/9 on the year, and lefties have slugged .554 off him with nearly 2 HR/9. Greene's 17.2% barrel rate and .266 xISO from the left side are the profile that punishes a pitcher like that. Comerica is a poor home run park, no argument there, but Gordon's mistakes leave any yard. At $4,700 he's a true mid-tier price on DK.
Heliot Ramos (NYY) DK $3,400 | FD $2,700 vs Zac Thornton
Ramos is a platoon bat, and today the platoon lines up for him. Against lefties he carries a .372 wOBA, a .227 ISO, and a 61% hard-hit rate, while Thornton has allowed 1.50 HR/9 with a 16.7% HR/FB and a 57% hard-hit rate against, which is a lot of loud contact for a guy with a 3.54 ERA. Ramos has an ISO near .390 across his last 30 days, hits fifth in the Bronx, and costs $3,400. FanDuel has him at $2,700, nearer the bottom of the pool than the middle, so he's a salary save on both sites. This is the cheap one I'd take a swing on.
Stacks to Target
1. Detroit vs Tanner Gordon (R) | Implied Total: 5.2 | ROO Score: 5.1/10 | CASH
Not much about Tanner Gordon says he should be starting a September game against a good lineup. His 5.41 ERA is bad, and his 6.75 xFIP says it could be worse, because a 52% fly-ball rate and a 43% hard-hit rate against don't leave much room for luck to help. He walks almost nobody, which is the one thing in his favor, but the Tigers' lefties don't need free passes when they're slugging .554 off him as a group. Kevin McGonigle has a 143 wRC+ against righties with an 11.6% strikeout rate, Dillon Dingler carries a .249 ISO from the right side, and Greene we covered above. The Rockies bullpen behind him sits near a 4.70 xFIP, so the runs keep coming after he's gone. Detroit is the safest stack on the board and everyone building a cash lineup knows it, which is fine.
Core pieces: Kevin McGonigle $5,200 (L), Riley Greene $4,700 (L), Dillon Dingler $4,500 (R), Colt Keith $3,200 (L), Gleyber Torres $4,100 (R)
2. Boston vs Randy Dobnak (R) | Implied Total: 5.4 | ROO Score: 5.0/10 | CASH
Dobnak's 2.56 ERA is a mirage, and it isn't a subtle one. His xFIP is 5.53, he has a 6.1 K/9, and he's stranding 87% of runners, which nobody sustains. Boston has the highest implied total on the slate at 5.4, and it's the left-handed side of the lineup that gets the soft matchup: Dobnak allows a .317 wOBA and 1.15 HR/9 to lefties with a 5.3 K/9 against them. Roman Anthony and Wilyer Abreu are the two lefties I'd start with, and the switch-hitters Mickey Gasper (164 wRC+ from the left side) and Adley Rutschman turn around to face him too. The wind blowing in at Fenway caps the home run part of this, which is why it sits behind Detroit. The Royals pen at a 4.66 xFIP isn't a rescue. Chalk-safe cash stack, and I'm not fighting it.
Core pieces: Roman Anthony $5,200 (L), Mickey Gasper $4,100 (S), Adley Rutschman $3,900 (S), Wilyer Abreu $5,600 (L), Jarren Duran $4,400 (L)
3. Pittsburgh vs Clay Holmes (R) | Implied Total: 4.2 | ROO Score: 4.3/10 | GPP
My tournament stack runs through Pittsburgh. Holmes has been good, a 2.83 ERA with a 3.77 xFIP, and his sinker keeps the ball on the ground against everyone. Stacking against him feels wrong until you remember it's 86 degrees at Wrigley with the wind out, the Pirates' left-handed bats are a 122 wRC+ group against righties, and the Cubs bullpen behind Holmes carries a 5.01 xFIP, which is the worst pen among the games I'd consider. Brandon Lowe has a .257 ISO and a 146 wRC+ against righties, Cruz is the headline HR call, and Bryan Reynolds is steady from both sides. Rafael Flores at $3,900 with a 57.5% hard-hit rate is the cheap piece down the order. Few people stack against a 2.83 ERA, so the Pirates should come in lighter owned than the spot deserves, and that's the whole tournament case.
Core pieces: Brandon Lowe $5,700 (L), Bryan Reynolds $5,200 (S), Oneil Cruz $6,700 (L), Rafael Flores $3,900 (R), Esmerlyn Valdez $4,000 (R)
Pitchers
Tyler Glasnow (LAD) vs MIA | DK $10,700 | FD $10,300 | CASH
Miami is implied for 2.9 runs, the lowest number on the slate, under a closed roof. Glasnow's 11.0 K/9 and 32% strikeout rate trail only Gavin Williams on this board, and his 2.80 xFIP says the 3.15 ERA is a touch unlucky on sequencing even with a low BABIP. The knock is workload: he's averaged under 5 innings across his last 5 starts, so you're paying the top price on DK for strikeouts rather than length. On FanDuel he's $10,300 while Gavin Williams sits above him at $10,800, so the FD board has him slightly cheaper relative to the field. He'll be the most popular arm on the slate, and I think the field has that right.
Gerrit Cole (NYY) vs NYM | DK $9,500 | FD $9,800 | CASH
The Mets are implied for 3 runs and Cole has a 1.8 BB/9. That combination is a cash arm: a 3.41 ERA against a 3.26 xFIP, nothing lucky or unlucky about it, and he's averaged over 6 innings in his last 5 starts, which is the length Glasnow can't give you. The strikeouts are more modest at a 9.2 K/9, and the Mets do have Juan Soto sitting in the two-hole with a .349 xISO. A solo shot to Soto and 6 innings of 7 strikeouts still pays at this price, and he's a real salary saver against the top of the board.
Ranger Suarez (BOS) vs KC | DK $7,600 | FD $8,600 | CASH
Same logic as Cole, cheaper price tag. The Royals sit at 3.1 implied runs, the wind is blowing in at Fenway, and Suarez has a 3.46 ERA that lines up with a 3.63 xFIP and a .304 BABIP. He doesn't miss many bats, 8.4 K/9, and he'll be under the radar with two aces and Cole on the slate. At $7,600 on DK he's the arm that makes Detroit and Boston fit in the same lineup. FanDuel prices him at $8,600, which is a bigger share of that board, so he's a better value on DraftKings.
Gavin Williams (CLE) vs MIN | DK $10,500 | FD $10,800 | GPP
Williams has a 12.1 K/9 and a 33.5% strikeout rate, and his xFIP of 2.62 is more than a full run under his 3.78 ERA. He's been unlucky by any measure I trust, so why isn't he cash? Home runs. He's allowed 1.44 HR/9 with a 15.3% HR/FB, righties have slugged .445 off him, and Target Field has a 13 mph wind blowing out today. The Twins are implied for 4.25 runs, which is a middle-of-the-slate number, not a soft one. On DK he's priced right next to Glasnow, and on FanDuel he's the most expensive pitcher on the board at $10,800. You're buying the strikeout ceiling and living with the home run risk, which is a tournament profile.
Paul Skenes (PIT) vs CHC | DK $9,100 | FD $8,800 | GPP
Skenes at $9,100 on DK and $8,800 on FanDuel is cheaper than Cole on both sites, and he's the better pitcher. His 3.83 ERA hides a 2.94 xFIP, a .306 BABIP, and a 68% strand rate, so the luck has been running against him all year. The problem is the spot: Wrigley, 86 degrees, wind out at 10 mph, and a Cubs lineup with Pete Crow-Armstrong carrying a .314 ISO from the left side. My guess is 6 strikeouts and a homer, which is fine at this price, but it's a GPP play today because the weather can turn 2 mistakes into 4 runs instead of 2.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
Michael King (SD), Negative Regression Candidate
King's 3.00 ERA is built on a .253 BABIP and an 82% strand rate, and his 4.27 xFIP is the number I'd bet on going forward. His K/9 is down to 7.7 with a 3.5 BB/9, which is a fine mid-rotation profile, not a $8,500 ace. The Giants, implied for 3.3 runs, aren't the lineup to punish him, but Oracle has 19 mph of wind blowing out today and the sim already has San Francisco on the run line. At $8,500 I'm off him.
Paul Skenes (PIT), Positive Regression Candidate
We covered why the ERA lies above. A 3.83 ERA on a 2.94 xFIP with a 68% strand rate and a .306 BABIP is about as clean a buy-low profile as I've seen this September. The Wrigley forecast is why he isn't in my cash lineups today, but his price is going to drift down if the ERA doesn't fix itself soon, and I'd rather be early on that than chase it next week.
Final Thoughts
I'm starting cash lineups with Glasnow or Cole, and it's Cole if you want both Detroit and Boston, because the Tigers' core against Gordon and the Red Sox lefties against Dobnak are the two safest scoring environments on the slate. Ranger Suarez at $7,600 is the arm that makes a double stack fit. Heliot Ramos at $3,400 is my favorite cheap bat, and Colt Keith at $3,200 is the way to get a fifth Tiger without breaking the budget.
Two things to check before the 1:10 lock. Toronto is opening with Spencer Miles, who has gone 1 and 2 innings in his last 2 starts, and Spencer Arrighetti is the likely bulk arm behind him after a 16-day gap between appearances, so the Orioles are facing Arrighetti's 5.06 BB/9 and the Toronto bullpen rather than a true starter. And the Rogers Centre roof is only projected open, so check it, though as I said above it doesn't change the play.
For tournaments the Pirates are where I'd take my shot, and I'd pair them with a Cubs bring-back of Crow-Armstrong and Seiya Suzuki because the wind helps both dugouts and neither pen is trustworthy. Skenes is the pitcher pivot off the Glasnow chalk if you're willing to live with the weather, and Gavin Williams is the pure strikeout swing. If you want a stack nobody else is building, the Angels are implied for 3.9 but Zach Neto and Mike Trout both hit lefties well and Andrew Alvarez has a 4.1 BB/9.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.