Weather to Watch
Los Angeles Angels at Washington | Nationals Park | Overcast, 83F | Wind: 3 mph WSW
Overcast, 83 degrees, almost no wind, and the 8% rain chance isn't worth a second thought. Nationals Park leans toward power on its own and the heat pushes home run odds up close to 8%, so this is the outdoor game I'd build hitters around first.
Philadelphia at Atlanta | Truist Park | Clear, 82F | Wind: 8 mph WNW
Clear, 82 degrees, and an 8 mph crosswind that helps left-handed pull power a little more than it helps righties. Truist plays fair on its own, and today it plays a touch better than fair for Schwarber, Harper and Olson.
New York Mets at New York Yankees | Yankee Stadium | Overcast, 75F | Wind: 5 mph NW
A 53% rain chance matters more than the 5 mph crosswind. I'm not pulling Yankees off my player pool over it, but I'd keep a pivot ready in case the forecast firms up before lock.
Baltimore at Toronto | Rogers Centre | Clear, 79F | Wind: 5 mph SSW
With the roof expected open, Toronto gets a 79-degree afternoon and a light 5 mph breeze blowing out. That's a small boost for both sides and one of the reasons I like Okamoto below.
Cleveland at Minnesota | Target Field | Clear, 68F | Wind: 9 mph NW
Cool and clear at 68 degrees with the wind out at 9 mph. The temperature and the wind cancel each other out for home runs, so I'd call Target Field neutral and let Joe Ryan decide the game.
Cincinnati at Milwaukee | American Family Field | Overcast, 69F | Wind: 10 mph NW
The roof projects open, it's 69 degrees, the wind is pushing out at 10 mph, and there's a 13% rain chance. That nudges run scoring up a few ticks, and Milwaukee already owns the slate's biggest implied number.
Chicago White Sox at St. Louis | Busch Stadium | Overcast, 83F | Wind: 4 mph W
Best home run conditions on the whole board at 83 degrees, a 4 mph wind out and a 9% bump to home run odds, better than 9% for left-handed bats. Busch suppresses power on a normal day, so the weather is doing real work for Murakami and Burleson here.
Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs | Wrigley Field | Partly Cloudy, 71F | Wind: 11 mph NNE
An 11 mph wind blowing straight in at Wrigley cuts home run odds by close to 20%, which is the worst forecast of the day by a wide margin. I'm off Cubs and Pirates power, and the 7-run game total agrees with me.
Kansas City at Boston | Fenway Park | Light Rain, 68F | Wind: 6 mph ENE
Light rain, a 72% precipitation chance and a 6 mph wind blowing in. This is the game most likely to get delayed or shortened, and it's the reason Payton Tolle lands in the GPP tier instead of cash.
Tropicana never opens and Miami is shutting the roof on the Dodgers, so park factor alone decides those 2.
Model Bets
Cincinnati +1.5 (-127) | Cincinnati at Milwaukee | Edge: +2.9%
The simulation keeps the Reds inside a run and a half 56.5% of the time; the devigged market says 53.5%. That comes from Chase Burns keeping the first turn through the Brewers order quiet, and it runs straight into the Milwaukee stack I write up below, so take one side or the other rather than both.
These come off the game simulation and are posted for tracking only. Nothing here is a wagering recommendation.
HR Calls
James Wood (WSH) DK $6,200 | FD $4,200 vs Grayson Rodriguez
Grayson Rodriguez has been the wrong kind of pitcher to be left-handed against all year. Lefties own a .403 wOBA and a .551 slug off him with a 1.80 HR/9, and 51% of the contact they make is hard. You don't see that often from a starter who still gets the ball every 5 days. The 5.20 BB/9 against lefties explains it: he falls behind in the count and has to come into the zone with a fastball he can't locate. Wood carries a 22.8% barrel rate, a .338 xISO and a 163 wRC+ against righties. His power has gone quiet in his last 30 days, no argument, but 83 degrees at Nationals Park against this arm is where a cold streak ends. He's one of the 3 most expensive bats on DraftKings and $4,200 against a $4,300 ceiling on FanDuel, so you're paying full price on both sites. I'd pay it.
Munetaka Murakami (CWS) DK $4,700 | FD $3,600 vs Michael McGreevy
DraftKings has left Murakami in the true mid-tier at $4,700 while the weather at Busch hands lefties the best home run conditions of the day. McGreevy against left-handed hitters: 5.63 K/9, 1.24 HR/9, 43% hard contact, 4.72 xFIP. He doesn't miss bats or keep the ball off the barrel, and Murakami lives on the barrel, at 19.6% with a .296 ISO and a 135 wRC+ against righties. The strikeouts are real at 34% and I could argue he goes 0 for 4 with 3 punchouts. I'd still take that swing on an 83-degree day at Busch.
Kazuma Okamoto (TOR) DK $3,900 | FD $3,200 vs Trevor Rogers
Trevor Rogers is 2 different pitchers depending on who's in the box. Lefties can't touch him, at a .240 wOBA and 0.23 HR/9, but righties slug .439 with a 1.21 HR/9 and 40% hard contact, and Toronto is sending 7 right-handed bats at him. Okamoto is the one I want, and I'm a little surprised he's still under $4,000. He's got a 135 wRC+ and a .265 ISO against lefties on the season, a 17.9% barrel rate, and his power in his last 30 days has been as loud as any bat I looked at for this slate. He bats fifth at $3,900 with the roof projected open on a 79-degree day, and $3,200 on FanDuel sits well below the middle of that pool. This is my salary save.
Stacks to Target
1. Los Angeles Dodgers vs Eury Perez (R) | Implied Total: 4.9 | ROO Score: 4.6/10 | CASH
Eury Perez is better than the Dodgers stack numbers make him look, and I'm stacking against him anyway. His 3.95 ERA matches his 3.96 xFIP, his K/9 sits at 9.7, and lefties have managed only a .284 wOBA against him, so the platoon argument here is thinner than usual. The innings sell it. Perez has averaged 4.5 innings over his last 5 starts, and the Marlins bullpen behind him has a 4.71 ERA and a 4.76 xFIP across the last 30 days with a 4.5 BB/9, so the Dodgers get 2 turns against Perez and then a long night against the soft part of the Miami staff. Righties are the better side of him, at a .338 wOBA, .430 slug and 1.68 HR/9, which makes Betts and Smith real pieces instead of afterthoughts. The roof is closed, the implied total is 4.9, and this is the chalk. Muncy is going to be the most rostered bat on the slate, so if you want to be different inside the stack, that's the spot to swap.
Core pieces: Freddie Freeman $4,900 (L), Max Muncy $4,600 (L), Mookie Betts $4,800 (R), Will Smith $4,200 (R), Tommy Edman $4,500 (S)
2. Washington Nationals vs Grayson Rodriguez (R) | Implied Total: 4.7 | ROO Score: 4.3/10 | GPP
Read the Wood blurb above and you already have most of the case. Rodriguez has a 6.32 ERA on a 4.61 xFIP, a 20% HR/FB and 4.1 BB/9, and the left side of the Nationals order is built to punish exactly that: Wood at a 163 wRC+ against righties, Abrams at 146 with a .248 ISO, Lile at 112 with a .217 ISO, and Ortiz hitting second at $2,500. Washington's lefties as a group carry a 114 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. The back half is the catch, because the Angels bullpen has been very good against lefties across the last 30 days, at a 2.60 xFIP with 0.42 HR/9, so this stack lives on the 5-plus innings Rodriguez pitches and not on what comes after. So it's a GPP stack. At 83 degrees in a park that helps power, I think the 5 innings are enough.
Core pieces: James Wood $6,200 (L), CJ Abrams $5,900 (L), Daylen Lile $4,600 (L), Abimelec Ortiz $2,500 (L), Keibert Ruiz $3,900 (S)
3. Milwaukee Brewers vs Chase Burns (R) | Implied Total: 5.1 | ROO Score: 4.5/10 | GPP
Milwaukee is implied for 5.1, more than anyone else today, and one of the best pitchers on the slate stands in front of it, so I have it third. Chase Burns is legit: 2.73 ERA, 3.24 xFIP, 10.7 K/9, and righties have hit .219 wOBA off him. The angle is his workload. Last time out he threw 3 innings on 44 pitches and Brandon Williamson covered the next 4-plus, and Williamson is the pitcher you want to stack against, at a 6.05 ERA, a 7.73 xFIP and a 6.5 BB/9. Behind them the Reds bullpen has a 6.42 ERA across the last 30 days with a 4.8 BB/9. If Burns goes 3 again, the Brewers spend 6 innings against the worst pitching on the board. Lefties like Turang (148 wRC+ against righties) and Bauers (147 with 58% hard contact) get Burns' softer side at 1.31 HR/9, but they lose the platoon edge once Williamson takes over, so Chourio and Contreras are the pieces that hold up either way. Tournament only, because if Burns goes 6 this stack is dead.
Core pieces: Jackson Chourio $5,800 (R), Brice Turang $5,300 (L), Jake Bauers $4,700 (L), William Contreras $4,400 (R), Christian Yelich $4,000 (L)
Pitchers
Cam Schlittler (NYY) vs NYM | DK $11,400 | FD $10,900 | CASH
There's no such thing as a must play in baseball, but this is the closest the slate gets. Schlittler has a 2.02 ERA on a 2.71 xFIP with 11.1 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9, he's averaged 6.4 innings over his last 5 starts, and the Mets, at 2.82, carry the smallest implied number on today's board. The .257 BABIP and 83% strand rate say he's had a little help, but the strikeout and walk profile underneath is what you're paying for, and that part is elite. DraftKings prices him above every other arm, and FanDuel has him at $10,900 against a $10,900 ceiling, so there's no discount anywhere. The 53% rain chance in the Bronx is the only argument against him, and I'm not moving off for it.
Dylan Cease (TOR) vs BAL | DK $10,800 | FD $10,800 | CASH
If you can only afford one of the two aces, I think the answer is Schlittler, but Cease is close enough that I'd be fine either way. He's struck out 35% of the hitters he's faced with a 2.40 ERA and a 2.57 xFIP, and both sides of the plate hit under .255 wOBA against him. Baltimore is implied for 3.18. The walks (a 3.7 BB/9) are the one thing that could shorten his day, and the Blue Jays bullpen at a 2.64 ERA across the last 30 days won't give any of it back. He costs the same $10,800 on both sites, and on FanDuel's compressed board that's a bigger bite of the roster than it is on DraftKings.
Joe Ryan (MIN) vs CLE | DK $9,400 | FD $9,000 | CASH
Ryan is the arm I'd use to make the aces affordable elsewhere. A 3.69 ERA on a 3.30 xFIP, plus a strand rate stuck at 68%, says he's been a little unlucky, and the stuff is still there: 10.1 K/9, 1.95 BB/9, 26.8% strikeouts. Cleveland is implied for 3.63 and its lineup doesn't scare anyone. The one hole is left-handed power, where lefties have tagged him for 1.62 HR/9 with a 21% HR/FB, and the wind is out at 9 mph at Target Field, but the temperature is 68 degrees and that keeps it neutral. At $1,400 less than Cease on DraftKings he's the value in this tier.
Payton Tolle (BOS) vs KC | DK $9,900 | FD $10,000 | GPP
Tolle has been as good as anyone on this list against right-handed hitters, at 11.66 K/9 and a 2.97 xFIP, and the Royals carry a 2.84 implied. On a dry day I'd have him in cash without a second thought. The forecast at Fenway is light rain with a 72% chance of more, and a delay or a shortened start turns a $9,900 pitcher into the reason your lineup didn't cash. I'll take that risk in a tournament and nowhere else. If the radar clears by noon, move him up a tier.
Sean Burke (CWS) vs STL | DK $8,400 | FD $8,900 | GPP
Burke's 3.58 ERA is the shiniest number on this slate that I don't believe. His xFIP is 5.47, his BABIP is .285, he's stranded 78% of runners, and only 6.7% of his fly balls have left the yard, which is about half the league rate. On an 83-degree day at Busch with a breeze pushing out, that last number is the one that gives it back. The strikeouts are real at 9.75 K/9, and the Cardinals sit at a 3.69 implied, so there's a version of this where he goes 6 with 8 Ks and you look smart. I'd take that in a GPP, knowing it's closer to a coin flip than a floor.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
Grant Holmes (ATL), Negative Regression Candidate
Holmes has a 3.48 ERA and it's sitting on a 5.98 xFIP, the biggest gap on the slate by a mile. A .256 BABIP plus an 82% strand rate is holding it up, and those numbers rarely hold in September. His K/9 is 7.2 against a 3.7 BB/9, and lefties have hit 48% of their contact hard against him. The Phillies benefit today, and Schwarber and Harper are the two names I'd single out, at Truist on an 82-degree afternoon with a crosswind that helps the pull side.
Emmet Sheehan (LAD), Positive Regression Candidate
Sheehan has a 5.08 ERA and a 3.57 xFIP, and his SIERA is under 3.00. He runs a 10.5 K/9 against a 2.8 BB/9 and gets swings and misses on 14.5% of his pitches. The problem has been the home run ball, at 1.87 HR/9 with 16% of his fly balls leaving, and that rate comes down. Miami is implied for 3.59 with the roof closed. At $7,600 on DraftKings he's the cheapest arm on the slate I'd want in a lineup, and he's my GPP pivot off the chalk aces.
Final Thoughts
My cash build starts with Schlittler and works backward. Freeman, Muncy and Betts are the Dodgers core, and with Muncy carrying most of the ownership on the slate I'm fine being on him in cash rather than fighting it. Okamoto at $3,900 and Ortiz at $2,500 are the two bats that make the aces fit, and if you'd rather not spend $11,400 on a pitcher, Ryan at $9,400 does most of the same job for less.
Check 2 forecasts before lock. Fenway at 72% rain is the one that can wreck a lineup, so I'd keep Tolle out of cash until the radar says otherwise, and the Bronx at 53% is worth one more refresh. I'm also watching how Cincinnati handles Burns. His last outing was 3 innings and 44 pitches, and if the Reds run the same plan, the Milwaukee stack gets 6 innings of Williamson and a bad bullpen.
For tournaments, the Nationals are my favorite stack on the day, and my guess is the field doesn't get there because Rodriguez still has a name. Milwaukee's righties, Chourio and Contreras, are the pieces that survive whichever Cincinnati pitcher is on the mound. The Yankees lefties are the other way to be different: Rice has a 152 wRC+ against righties, Scott's lefty split shows 1.29 HR/9 and a 19.6% HR/FB, and the short porch does the rest. Pair whichever stack you pick with Sheehan or Burke at pitcher and you've got a roster the chalk isn't building.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.