Weather to Watch
Detroit at Toronto | Rogers Centre | Clear, 64F | Wind: 5 mph SE
The roof is expected to be open, and 64 degrees is cool enough to trim home run odds by about 4%. The 5 mph breeze points out but it's too light to matter, so I'd play this as a run-scoring game more than a power game.
Baltimore at New York Mets | Citi Field | Clear, 67F | Wind: 8 mph NNW
An 8 mph crosswind at 67 degrees knocks home run odds down close to 7%, and it hits right-handed bats hardest, at more than 10%. That's a problem for Alonso and Mayo, and it's why I don't have an Orioles bat anywhere in this article.
Atlanta at Chicago Cubs | Wrigley Field | Partly Cloudy, 70F | Wind: 15 mph SE
Wrigley is being Wrigley today. The 15 mph wind is a crosswind that lifts right-handed home run odds by 22% while taking a few points off lefties, which matters for a Cubs stack that has Suzuki and Bregman hitting second and fourth and for Acuna on the other side.
New York Yankees at Minnesota | Target Field | Overcast, 60F | Wind: 13 mph SSE
It's 60 degrees with a 44% rain chance and a 13 mph crosswind, and the total effect is about 7.5% off home run odds, 9% off for lefties. I still have the Yankees written up below, but this forecast is the reason they're a tournament stack and not a cash one.
San Francisco at St. Louis | Busch Stadium | Clear, 85F | Wind: 11 mph SE
Warm and clear at 85 degrees, which adds about 7.5% to home run odds and closer to 11% for right-handed hitters. Busch normally holds power down, so this is a day it plays closer to average, and Jordan Walker is the bat who benefits most.
San Diego at Colorado | Coors Field | Overcast, 78F | Wind: 21 mph WNW
Nothing else on the board blows 21 mph, and it's blowing across the field, which helps lefties a little (Merrill, Cronenworth) and costs righties about 4%. It doesn't matter much. It's 78 degrees at Coors, and the park factor swamps whatever the wind does.
Seattle at Los Angeles Angels | Angel Stadium | Clear, 74F | Wind: 8 mph SSW
Wind out at 8 mph and 74 degrees adds close to 5% to home run odds and about 3% to run scoring, and Angel Stadium can use the help. It's the forecast nobody will talk about, and it's part of why two Angels show up in the tournament notes.
Miami at Arizona | Chase Field | Mostly Clear, 86F | Wind: 4 mph ENE
Chase projects open at 86 degrees with almost no wind, and that heat is worth about 9% on home run odds, the biggest boost of any game today. The catch is the roof. If Arizona closes it, this line disappears and Chase goes back to playing as a pitcher's park.
No true domes on the slate today. Rogers Centre and Chase Field are the two retractable roofs, and a closed roof at either one just removes the weather line above.
Model Bets
Under 11 (-110) | San Diego at Colorado | Edge: +2.6%
The simulation has the under at 52.6% against a devigged market of 50.0%, and the whole edge comes from Casey Mize, who has a 2.2 BB/9 and a 12.8% swinging-strike rate even at altitude. I'll say up front that this cuts against the Padres stack I'm recommending below. The way I square it is that the Padres score 6 or 7 on their own and Mize keeps Colorado under 4.
These come off the game simulation and are posted for tracking only. Nothing here is a wagering recommendation.
HR Calls
Jackson Merrill (SD) DK $5,500 | FD $3,600 vs Tomoyuki Sugano
Sugano can't get lefties out, and he's pitching at Coors. Lefties have hit him for a .375 wOBA and a .565 slug with 2.46 HR/9, and 24.4% of their fly balls off him have gone out. His K/9 against that side is 5.7, so Merrill is putting the ball in play 4 times. Merrill's barrel rate is 14.2%, he makes hard contact 48.7% of the time, and his ISO over the last 30 days is .305, so the power is loud right now. The crosswind at Coors tilts toward left-handed bats today. DraftKings prices him among the top 10 bats at $5,500, and $3,600 on FanDuel sits in the upper half of a pool that tops out at $4,300, so you're paying up on both sites. Tatis is $1,500 more and doesn't have the platoon side. Merrill's the Padre I want.
Kyle Stowers (MIA) DK $4,400 | FD $3,100 vs Corbin Burnes
Corbin Burnes will be the most rostered pitcher on the slate, and he has thrown 57 pitches this season. One start, 3 innings, on September 8. I don't know what Arizona lets him throw tonight, but I'd be surprised if it's 90, which means Stowers gets Burnes once or twice and then the Diamondbacks bullpen, which over its last 30 days has let lefties hit .337 wOBA with 1.53 HR/9 and has walked them at a 4.4 BB/9 clip. Nobody in this section hits the ball harder than Stowers, 60.8% hard contact against righties, with a 14.2% barrel rate and a .236 ISO. He strikes out a third of the time, which is the risk. At $4,400 he's a real mid-tier price on DraftKings, and $3,100 on FanDuel is the middle of that board too. If the Chase roof stays open, 86 degrees is the best home run weather on the slate.
Jose Siri (LAA) DK $3,200 | FD $2,600 vs Kade Anderson
This is the swing I'd take at the bottom of the board. Siri is a homer-or-nothing hitter with a 16.1% barrel rate, 46.8% fly balls and a .222 ISO against lefties, and he strikes out 34% of the time against them, so I'm not pretending the floor exists. Kade Anderson is a rookie left-hander 4 starts into his career with a 1.71 HR/9, and righties have a 20% HR/FB against him in a small sample. Behind Anderson, the Mariners bullpen has a 7.04 ERA over the last 30 days and gives up 1.96 HR/9. The wind's blowing out at Angel Stadium. On FanDuel he's $2,600 in a pool that bottoms out at $2,000, so he's a punt on both sites.
Stacks to Target
1. San Diego Padres vs Tomoyuki Sugano (R) | Implied Total: 6.8 | ROO Score: 6.4/10 | CASH
San Diego is implied for 6.8 runs, and no other offense on the board is within 1.5 runs of it. That alone gets them into a cash lineup, and the details are worse for Sugano. Sugano: 5.31 ERA, 4.73 xFIP, 5.5 K/9, 1.90 HR/9, 41% hard contact, and a 7.0% swinging-strike rate that's the lowest of any starter on the slate. Righties slug .481 off him with 46% hard contact, lefties slug .565, so both halves of the order are live, and he's lasted 4.8 innings a start across his last 5. Then the Rockies bullpen, at a 5.14 ERA and 4.7 BB/9 over the last 30 days, takes over for 4 more innings at Coors. The cost is the problem. Tatis, Machado and Merrill together run $18,500, and this is the stack everyone in a cash game is building, so I'm joining the field on this one. Campusano, $3,900 and a 141 wRC+ against righties, is the piece that makes it fit.
Core pieces: Fernando Tatis $7,000 (R), Manny Machado $6,000 (R), Jackson Merrill $5,500 (L), Luis Campusano $3,900 (R), Xander Bogaerts $4,800 (R)
2. Chicago Cubs vs Reynaldo Lopez (R) | Implied Total: 5.3 | ROO Score: 5.1/10 | CASH
Reynaldo Lopez is a 4.14 ERA with a 5.79 xFIP underneath it, and I'd trust the second number. His BB/9 is 3.8, he gives up 1.30 HR/9 on a 44% fly-ball rate, and against left-handed hitters the BB/9 jumps to 7.0, which is where Crow-Armstrong, Busch and Conforto come in. Lopez has averaged 4.9 innings a start across his last 5. The Braves bullpen behind him is good, a 3.30 ERA over the last 30 days, so this stack lives in the first 5 innings. The wind helps. That 15 mph crosswind at Wrigley adds 22% to right-handed home run odds, and Suzuki (124 wRC+ against righties) and Bregman (118) hit second and fourth. Crow-Armstrong has a .416 ISO over the last 30 days. You can build the Cubs for about $2,500 less than the Padres top 3 and lose very little, which is why I'd call them the cash stack for anyone who doesn't want to pay Coors prices.
Core pieces: Pete Crow-Armstrong $6,500 (L), Seiya Suzuki $5,000 (R), Alex Bregman $5,500 (R), Michael Busch $4,200 (L), Ian Happ $3,700 (S)
3. New York Yankees vs Dean Kremer (R) | Implied Total: 4.7 | ROO Score: 4.4/10 | GPP
Dean Kremer has given up 2.02 HR/9 this season, and a third of the fly balls hit off him have left the park. Lefties are the reason: .358 wOBA, .518 slug, 2.09 HR/9, 25% HR/FB. The Yankees run 6 left-handed bats at him. Ben Rice leads off with a 155 wRC+ and a .301 ISO against righties, Bellinger sits at 117, Luis Garcia hits cleanup, and Spencer Jones makes hard contact 59.8% of the time from the left side even though he strikes out 37%. Judge is Judge, and no hitter on this slate will draw more rosters. So why is this a tournament stack and not cash? It's 60 degrees at Target Field with a 44% rain chance and a crosswind that takes 9% off left-handed home run odds, and Kremer's 8.7 K/9 plays up in that weather. I'd build it with Rice, Garcia and Jones and let the field carry Judge.
Core pieces: Ben Rice $5,400 (L), Aaron Judge $5,900 (R), Cody Bellinger $4,700 (L), Luis Garcia $4,900 (L), Spencer Jones $3,600 (L)
Pitchers
Reid Detmers (LAA) vs SEA | DK $8,800 | FD $10,100 | CASH
If you're spending up at pitcher, this is where I'd spend it. Detmers has a 3.32 ERA on a 3.27 xFIP, so I believe the ERA, and the stuff behind it holds up: 10.2 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 28.4% strikeouts, 12.8% swinging strikes. He's gone 6.6 innings a start across his last 5, the longest leash on the board. Seattle is implied for 3.9, and hitters from either side are under a .280 wOBA against him. The price is the odd part. FanDuel charges more for him than any other arm, $10,100, while DraftKings has him $200 under Troy Melton, and I'd rather pay Detmers than Melton, for reasons I'll get to below. He'll be popular, and I'm fine with that.
Jose Soriano (TOR) vs DET | DK $8,500 | FD $9,200 | CASH
Soriano is the safer version of the same idea, minus a couple of strikeouts. Soriano: 3.48 ERA, 3.78 xFIP, 8.5 K/9, 51% ground balls, and close to 6 innings a start across his last 5. Detroit is implied for 3.4, second lowest on the slate. The one thing I don't love is the lefty split: left-handed hitters have a .320 wOBA off him with 4.3 BB/9 and 1.27 HR/9, and Detroit sends 5 of them out, McGonigle, Keith, Greene, Clark and McKinstry. At 64 degrees under an open roof the power side of that gets trimmed. He's $9,200 on FanDuel, which is $900 under Detmers on a board where that gap matters. Cash on both sites, and the arm I'd pair with the Padres.
Casey Mize (SD) vs COL | DK $7,000 | FD $8,400 | GPP
Yes, I know it's Coors. Mize has a 3.70 ERA on a 3.97 xFIP with 8.1 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 and a 12.8% swinging-strike rate, and Colorado is implied for 4.2 in its own park, which is the number a bad lineup gets there. His HR/FB sits at 3.3% this year, so a homer tonight wouldn't shock me, and that's why he isn't cash. The Rockies do run 5 left-handed or switch bats, and Mize holds lefties to a .263 wOBA and 0.66 HR/9, so the platoon math is on his side. Few people will roster a $7,000 pitcher at Coors, and the simulation already leans under. In a tournament he's my pivot away from Melton and Burnes.
Will Warren (NYY) vs MIN | DK $7,300 | FD $8,300 | GPP
Warren's 4.05 ERA reads as ordinary, but the .311 BABIP points to some bad luck, and the 22.9% strikeout rate is better than the price suggests. Against right-handed hitters he runs 10.2 K/9, and Minnesota is implied for 3.8 in a cold park that's taking 7.5% off home runs tonight. The left side is where he leaks, at a .340 wOBA, and Minnesota has Clemens, Larnach and Jenkins from that side, plus Lee and Bell switching. Same game as the Yankees stack, so the 44% rain chance applies to him too. That's a tournament profile at $7,300, and he'll draw little attention behind Detmers, Soriano and Melton.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
Troy Melton (DET), Negative Regression Candidate
Melton has a 2.42 ERA, and it's the least believable number on the slate. His xFIP is 3.88, his BABIP is .236, he's stranding 83.3% of runners, and his HR/FB is 4.3%, about a third of the league rate. The strikeouts don't support any of it, 7.25 K/9 and a 7.6% swinging-strike rate. He's the priciest arm DraftKings lists at $9,000, and the field will be on him because of the ERA. I'm off. Toronto's lefties are the ones to look at, because Melton allows a .318 wOBA and 1.61 HR/9 to that side, and Bateman, Lukes, Josh Smith and Gimenez all hit from the left.
Dean Kremer (MIN), Positive Regression Candidate
Kremer's 5.69 ERA is sitting on a 4.07 xFIP and a 3.60 SIERA, and the gap is all home runs: a 33.3% HR/FB, which nobody sustains, and his 14.2% swinging-strike rate is the highest of any starter pitching today. He's stranding only 63.7% of runners. Long term he's a mid-4.00s pitcher with strikeouts, and 60 degrees with the wind crossing at Target Field is the kind of night his fly balls stay in the park. I'm still stacking the Yankees against him in tournaments, because the lefty split is the one part of his line that isn't luck. He's $6,600 on DraftKings, a deep tournament dart if you believe the strikeouts more than the ERA.
Final Thoughts
My cash lineup starts with Soriano and Warren at $15,800 combined, then Tatis and Merrill at $12,500, which leaves about $21,700 for 6 hitters, roughly $3,600 apiece. That's where the Cubs come in: Happ at $3,700 and Busch at $4,200 give you the Wrigley side without paying for Crow-Armstrong. Campusano at $3,900 and Nootbaar at $2,700, leading off for Arizona against Sandy Alcantara, who allows 1.21 HR/9 to lefties, are the bats that make the math work. If you'd rather have Detmers than Soriano, the $300 comes out of the Machado slot you weren't filling anyway.
Two forecasts to refresh before lock. Target Field is at 44% rain, and if that number climbs I'd move Warren and the Yankees stack to the bench and let Rice be the only one I keep. The Chase Field roof is the other, because the 86-degree line only counts if it's open. The 21 mph wind at Coors is a crosswind as of this morning, and if it swings to blowing out, the Rockies side of that game gets more interesting than it looks right now.
For tournaments, my favorite move is the Marlins lefties against Burnes and his 57-pitch season. Stowers is the HR call, and Griffin Conine has a 155 wRC+ and a 17.2% barrel rate against righties at $3,800, so 3 Marlins for under $12,000 gets you a stack few others will build. The Yankees lefties without Judge are the second play, and Mize at Coors is the pitcher pivot away from the Melton and Burnes chalk. If you want a cheap righty stack, Neto has a 138 wRC+ against lefties with a .361 ISO over the last 30 days, Trout is at 130, and Kade Anderson plus that Seattle bullpen is a soft landing at Angel Stadium with the wind out.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.