Weather to Watch
San Francisco at St. Louis | Busch Stadium | Clear, 95F | Wind: 8 mph SE
This is where I want my hitters today. Clear and 95 degrees, which buys roughly 14% on home run odds overall and about 17% if you swing from the right side. Busch usually takes power away. Not today.
Seattle at Los Angeles Angels | Angel Stadium | Mostly Clear, 74F | Wind: 10 mph SSW
Wind out at 10 mph with a 74-degree first pitch, worth roughly 5% on home run odds. Modest on its own, but it lands on a game I already liked.
New York Yankees at Minnesota | Target Field | Clear, 70F | Wind: 9 mph NW
Nothing dramatic. A 9 mph breeze pushing out, clear skies, 70 degrees, and maybe 2% added to home run odds with 3% for the lefties. The matchup is doing the work here, not the forecast.
San Diego at Colorado | Coors Field | Clear, 75F | Wind: 9 mph ENE
The crosswind trims left-handed power a touch and gives righties about 5%, and neither side of that changes much. It's 75 degrees at altitude. That's the environment, and nothing else in this line matters.
Atlanta at Chicago Cubs | Wrigley Field | Overcast, 75F | Wind: 2 mph SSW
Wrigley without wind is just a ballpark. Overcast, 75 degrees, a 2 mph breeze and a 15% rain chance, so this one doesn't move my board in either direction.
Baltimore at New York Mets | Citi Field | Clear, 67F | Wind: 6 mph SSE
Coolest game on the schedule at 67 degrees, and the 6 mph crosswind takes about 2% off left-handed power while giving righties about 3%. Juan Soto is the bat that cuts against.
Detroit at Toronto | Rogers Centre | Overcast, 70F | Wind: 3 mph SSW
Roof open, overcast, 70 degrees, 3 mph. Home run odds land a hair under neutral. As close to no weather as an outdoor game gets today.
Arizona, Texas and Houston all project to play under a closed roof, so Chase, Globe Life and Daikin get their park factors and no forecast at all.
Model Bets
Under 11.5 (-114) | San Diego at Colorado | Edge: +3.9%
The simulation puts the under at 54.8% against a devigged market of 50.9%, which is awkward, because the Padres are my top stack below. I'm taking the stack and leaving the total alone, and you should know the two calls disagree.
Colorado +1.5 (+104) | San Diego at Colorado | Edge: +3.2%
Same game, and this side I like better: 50.0% from the simulation against 46.8% from the market. Walker Buehler has walked 3.45 per 9 this season and Coors punishes free passes, so the Rockies keeping this within 1.5 runs isn't a reach.
Miami +1.5 (-165) | Miami at Arizona | Edge: +2.2%
Thinnest of the three at 61.7% against 59.5%, so take it or leave it. Michael Soroka makes his first start in 24 days for Arizona, and an arm coming back from that long a gap usually gets a short outing and an early bullpen behind him.
These come off the game simulation and are posted for tracking only. Nothing here is a wagering recommendation.
HR Calls
Fernando Tatis (SD) DK $7,000 | FD $4,400 vs Kyle Freeland
Nobody is priced above him on either site and I'd pay it anyway. Freeland against right-handed hitters: .395 wOBA, .576 slug, 2.16 HR/9, 22.3% HR/FB, 46.9% hard contact. Tatis has hit the ball hard 49.5% of the time and put up a .419 ISO in his last 30 days, and he bats leadoff, so he's the one guy in this order guaranteed the extra trip. My reservation is a 15.2% fly ball rate, because you can't homer on a grounder. Coors has a way of sorting that out.
Ben Rice (NYY) DK $5,400 | FD $3,800 vs Bailey Ober
Ober has a problem with left-handed bats, and Rice is the best one he'll see all night. Ober against lefties: 5.23 xFIP, 1.57 HR/9, 15.4% HR/FB, 4.98 K/9. He isn't missing bats and he isn't keeping the ball in the yard. Rice against righties: 155 wRC+, .301 ISO, 51.0% hard contact, .396 wOBA. At $5,400 he's the second expensive bat in this section, not a discount, and I'd rather say that plainly than dress it up.
Jahmai Jones (BOS) DK $2,400 | FD $2,300 vs Cody Bradford
Cheapest way onto this list, and the one I like most per dollar. Bradford has a 5.05 xFIP and a 5.56 K/9 against right-handed hitters and he's given up a .472 slug to them. That's the profile of a guy who throws strikes and then watches them leave. Jones has a 116 wRC+ and a 48.6% hard-hit rate against lefties, plus a .263 ISO across the last 30 days. The strikeout rate against that side is 30.6%, so there's no floor to speak of. DraftKings has him at $2,400 and FanDuel at $2,300 on a board that starts at $2,000, and at those prices you're not paying for a floor anyway.
Stacks to Target
1. San Diego Padres vs Kyle Freeland (L) | Implied Total: 7.3 | ROO Score: 6.1/10 | CASH
The market made up its mind about this game and I'm not going to argue with it. The Padres are down for 7.3 runs and nobody else on the board clears 5. Freeland has a 6.38 ERA with a 20% HR/FB and hard contact on 46.1% of balls in play, and righties have done the real damage, slugging .576 with 2.16 HR/9 against him. Tatis, Machado, Campusano and Samad Taylor all hit from that side, though I'll concede Machado has been ordinary against lefties this year at a 94 wRC+. Freeland also hasn't started a game in 27 days, which would normally soften a stack take, except the Colorado bullpen has a 5.03 ERA and a 4.74 BB/9, so the innings after him get worse rather than better. The field will be here and so am I.
Core pieces: Fernando Tatis $7,000 (R), Manny Machado $6,200 (R), Samad Taylor $4,500 (R), Luis Campusano $4,200 (R)
2. New York Yankees vs Bailey Ober (R) | Implied Total: 4.9 | ROO Score: 5.1/10 | CASH
The Yankees have turned into a left-handed lineup, and today that's the entire point. Ober against lefties: 5.23 xFIP, 1.57 HR/9, 15.4% HR/FB, 4.98 K/9, .447 slug allowed. He's also a 34.7% fly ball pitcher against them, and the wind at Target Field is blowing out. Rice, Luis Garcia and Spencer Jones are the affordable end of this. Judge is the expensive end, and plenty of the field will get there through him. Minnesota's relievers have struck out 10.27 per 9 over the last 30 days, so the late innings do tighten up. I'd still build here in cash.
Core pieces: Aaron Judge $5,900 (R), Ben Rice $5,400 (L), Luis Garcia $4,700 (L), Spencer Jones $3,500 (L), Austin Wells $2,400 (L)
3. St. Louis Cardinals vs Blade Tidwell (R) | Implied Total: 4.8 | ROO Score: 4.5/10 | GPP
This is how you get off the two stacks above without giving much up. Tidwell is split-dependent and one side of it is ugly: against lefties he's walked 6.45 per 9 with a 6.60 xFIP, 2.02 HR/9 and a .398 wOBA allowed. Against righties he's been excellent, so Jordan Walker and Ivan Herrera are leaning on 95 degrees rather than on the matchup, and you should go in knowing that. Alec Burleson is my favorite bat in the group, 159 wRC+ with a .227 ISO against right-handed pitching at $4,900. San Francisco's bullpen is at a 4.34 xFIP, so the middle innings stay open too. Fewer people will be here than on the two stacks above, and that's a good chunk of why I like it.
Core pieces: Jordan Walker $5,400 (R), Alec Burleson $4,900 (L), Ivan Herrera $4,400 (R), Leo Bernal $3,500 (S), Bryan Torres $3,400 (L)
Pitchers
Logan Gilbert (SEA) vs LAA | DK $10,000 | FD $9,600 | CASH
I cannot really build an argument against him tonight. Gilbert: 3.72 ERA, 3.29 xFIP, 2.82 SIERA, 9.78 K/9, 12.8% swinging strikes. The two numbers under the ERA are the ones I trust. The Angels have the second-lowest implied total on the board and they run four left-handed bats at a pitcher who punches out 11.25 per 9 against that side. No arm costs more on either site today, and because the FanDuel pitcher pool only runs $5,500 to $9,600, he takes up a bigger slice of a FanDuel roster than his $10,000 does here. Everybody's on him. Be on him too.
Max Fried (NYY) vs MIN | DK $9,000 | FD $9,100 | CASH
Fried is the rare arm who costs more on FanDuel than on DraftKings, and neither price is wrong. A 2.73 ERA with a 0.36 HR/9, against a Minnesota team carrying the lowest implied total on the slate at 3.1 runs, is exactly the cash shape. His HR/FB is 1.8% and nobody holds that. The strikeout and walk rates point at a mid-3s ERA as the real version of him, which is still plenty at this price. Minnesota sends six righties and three switch-hitters at him, and he's held right-handed hitters to a .260 wOBA with 9.04 K/9.
Kevin Gausman (CHC) vs ATL | DK $8,800 | FD $8,800 | CASH
DraftKings priced the ERA and not the pitcher. Underneath that 4.61 you get a 3.34 xFIP, 9.27 K/9, a 12.3% swinging-strike rate, a .314 BABIP and only 67.8% of runners stranded. That's an unlucky pitcher, not a bad one. Atlanta is implied for 3.7 and there's no wind at Wrigley to help them. What I'd flag is that righties have gotten to him for 1.75 HR/9, and Acuna, Riley and Sean Murphy all hit from that side. Same price on both sites, which almost never happens.
Hunter Brown (HOU) vs KC | DK $9,500 | FD $9,500 | GPP
The strikeouts are real and so are the walks. Brown misses bats at 9.78 per 9 behind a 3.76 xFIP, and he's also issued 4.50 walks per 9, which is how a 6-inning start turns into 5 innings and 95 pitches. Kansas City is implied for 3.2 with the roof shut at Daikin, so the setting is on his side. Plenty of people will roster him and I understand why. An arm that walks this many is a tournament play for me, never the one I anchor a cash build to.
Shane Baz (BAL) vs NYM | DK $8,500 | FD $8,600 | GPP
Baz has pitched better than his 4.05 ERA says. His FIP is 3.54 against a 4.10 xFIP, his BABIP is .312 and he's stranded only 68.6% of runners. That's the usual shape of a pitcher getting the wrong end of things. The Mets are implied for 4.4, so I'm not selling you a soft spot, and 67 degrees at Citi Field helps a little. He's under the radar next to every arm priced above him. That's why he's in here.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
Kyle Freeland (COL), Positive Regression Candidate
Yes, he's the pitcher my top stack is aimed at. Both things can be true. Freeland's 6.38 ERA is more than 2 runs above his 4.25 xFIP, his BABIP is .328 and he's stranded just 61.9% of runners, so the surface number is meaner than the pitcher has been. What keeps me from buying the bounce today is a 46.1% hard-hit rate and a 20% HR/FB, and Coors doesn't forgive either one. Circle him for a road start in a cold park instead.
Michael Wacha (KC), Negative Regression Candidate
Somebody is going to buy the ERA here and it shouldn't be you. Wacha's 3.26 sits against a 4.11 xFIP, a .255 BABIP and a 79.1% strand rate, and all three of those drift the wrong way from here. The specific hole is right-handed hitters: .340 wOBA, .496 slug, 1.90 HR/9, a 25.4% HR/FB. Houston runs Pena, Paredes, Altuve, Yainer Diaz, Christian Walker and Cam Smith at him from that side. The Astros are the ones who benefit tonight.
Final Thoughts
Cash starts with Gilbert at $10,000 and Gausman at $8,800, and that still leaves room for Tatis plus two more Padres bats. Ben Rice at $5,400 is the piece I'd build around after that, and when I need to save at the end, Austin Wells and Jahmai Jones are both $2,400 in spots I actually like. The San Diego piece isn't optional today. A team implied for 7.3 runs against a starter allowing hard contact on 46.1% of balls in play is not a place to get clever.
Two things worth checking before lock. Arizona and Toronto are both sending out arms who won't go deep, Soroka on 24 days since his last start and Braydon Fisher opening with Spencer Miles behind him, so the middle innings of both games belong to relievers, and the bottom third of those orders gets more interesting for it. The other is Wrigley, where a 2 mph breeze is doing nothing at the moment; Atlanta's bats need that to pick up before I move them up my board.
For tournaments I'd get to the Cardinals. Burleson at $4,900 against a pitcher walking 6.45 lefties per 9 is the cleanest angle on the board, and Leo Bernal at $3,500 puts a second bat in that order at a price almost nobody's paying. Spencer Jones is the other one, because a 59.8% hard-hit rate next to a 37.5% strikeout rate is exactly the shape you want from a $3,500 bat in a large field. Baz is the arm that pairs with all of it.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.