Weather to Watch
Atlanta at Chicago Cubs | Wrigley Field | Overcast, 69F | Wind: 8 mph N
Wrigley is the one forecast today that changes a decision. The wind comes straight in at 8 mph, which drops home run odds about 15% overall and closer to 20% for right-handed bats, and 69 degrees doesn't do anyone any favors either.
San Diego at Colorado | Coors Field | Light Drizzle, 73F | Wind: 14 mph NNE
Coors with a wind blowing in is not a combination you see much. It's 14 mph straight in with a 14% chance of drizzle, and that shaves about 6% off home run odds at the one park where nobody expects it. Altitude still stretches the gaps, so the runs are there. It's the over-the-fence part I'd trim.
Baltimore at New York Mets | Citi Field | Overcast, 73F | Wind: 8 mph SSE
Helpful, and lopsided. The 8 mph crosswind hands right-handed hitters about 8% on home run odds and gives lefties almost nothing, which is a wrinkle for the Mets stack below, since the bat I like best there swings from the left side.
Seattle at Los Angeles Angels | Angel Stadium | Overcast, 73F | Wind: 8 mph SW
A small push in a park that needs a big one. A breeze pointed out at 8 mph with 73 degrees is worth maybe 4% on home runs and slightly more on runs scored. Angel Stadium still grades as the hardest place on tonight's schedule to put one over the fence.
Three roofs project closed tonight: Globe Life, Daikin and Chase. Nothing in the forecast reaches those three.
Model Bets
Under 11.5 (-120) | San Diego at Colorado | Edge: +3.7%
Two of my calls in one game and they don't agree. The number here is 55.9% for the under where the market prices 52.2%, and the Padres are still the top stack below. A total of 11.5 leaves enough room for both to be right, and the 14 mph wind blowing in is most of the reason the under has an edge at all.
Colorado +1.5 (-108) | San Diego at Colorado | Edge: +2.5%
Same game, other side, and I'd rather have this one. It sits at 52.0% against 49.6% from the market. Robbie Ray gives up 1.52 HR/9 to right-handed hitters on a 49.1% fly ball rate, Colorado's lineup is implied for 4.6, and the Rockies only need to lose by a run.
Over 7.5 (-108) | Atlanta at Chicago Cubs | Edge: +2.4%
This one argues with the wind, which is why the edge is thin at 52.0% against 49.6%. JR Ritchie hasn't started a game for Atlanta since August 2, a gap of 45 days, so I'd expect a short outing and relievers early. The Cubs bullpen has walked 6.31 lefties per 9 with a 4.38 ERA across the last 30 days, so both managers end up asking their relievers for more innings than they want.
Los Angeles Angels +1.5 (-149) | Seattle at Los Angeles Angels | Edge: +2.3%
Thinnest of the four and I'd understand skipping it, at 59.5% against 57.3%. Seattle's bullpen carries a 6.80 ERA over the last 30 days with 1.85 HR/9 and a 5.65 xFIP against lefties, and that's the piece of this game the market keeps pricing too kindly.
These come off the game simulation and are posted for tracking only. Nothing here is a wagering recommendation.
HR Calls
Juan Soto (NYM) DK $6,100 | FD $3,900 vs Chris Bassitt
Bassitt has a left-handed problem and Soto is the worst possible version of it to run into. From that side Bassitt allows a .495 slug with 1.41 HR/9, a 17% HR/FB and a 5.08 xFIP, and the 4.24 BB/9 is the tell: he falls behind, has to come back over the plate, and at 6.59 K/9 he's not missing the bat when he does. Soto barrels 16.7% of his contact with a .335 xISO and a .250 ISO over his last 30 days. The honest catch is that tonight's crosswind tilts toward righties and does nothing for him. He's $3,900 on a FanDuel board topping out at $4,400, so you're paying near the ceiling there and premium money here.
Willson Contreras (BOS) DK $4,900 | FD $3,500 vs MacKenzie Gore
I'm about to contradict myself and I'd rather flag it than bury it. Gore shows up in my pitcher section and I want this bat against him anyway. Right-handed hitters have taken Gore out at 1.18 HR/9 with a 17% HR/FB, and he walks 3.39 of them per 9, so a strikeout arm working from behind in the count ends up grooving one. Contreras: 16.7% barrels, .308 xISO, 45.2% hard contact, .200 ISO in his last 30 days. At $4,900 this is upper-tier money and not a bargain, and I'd rather say so than dress it up, but the Texas bullpen behind Gore has given righties 1.64 HR/9 with a 4.87 xFIP over the last 30 days.
Griffin Conine (MIA) DK $3,800 | FD $3,000 vs Merrill Kelly
Merrill Kelly hasn't gotten left-handed hitters out all season. Lefties own a .371 wOBA and a .496 slug off him with 1.85 HR/9 and a 20.7% HR/FB, and the 4.93 BB/9 he hands that side means he's working from behind and feeding them pitches they can handle. Conine makes hard contact 52.4% of the time with a 16.9% barrel rate and a .257 ISO, and he hits third. The roof is closed at Chase, so there's no forecast to argue with. This is the value price of the three and the one I'll have in the most lineups.
Stacks to Target
1. San Diego Padres vs Mason Adams (R) | Implied Total: 6.9 | ROO Score: 6.0/10 | CASH
Vegas isn't being subtle here. The Padres sit at 6.9 runs implied, close to 2 runs clear of every other offense today, which tells you plenty about the arm standing in front of them. Mason Adams has 4 career starts and 18.2 innings, and in that sample right-handed hitters have slugged .636 with a 42.9% HR/FB, numbers I'd call pretty unsustainable in both directions. He walks 4.45 per 9 and has averaged 4.67 innings across his last 5 outings, so Colorado's bullpen shows up early, and that group owns a 5.20 ERA with 4.60 BB/9 and a 6.80 K/9 over the last 30 days. San Diego's righties are the half I want, at a 102 wRC+ and 43.0% hard contact against right-handed pitching. This is the chalk for a reason and I'm standing in it.
Core pieces: Fernando Tatis $7,200 (R), Manny Machado $6,200 (R), Xander Bogaerts $5,000 (R), Ty France $4,900 (R), Luis Campusano $4,400 (R)
2. New York Mets vs Chris Bassitt (R) | Implied Total: 5.1 | ROO Score: 5.1/10 | CASH
That 4.89 ERA is the friendly version of Bassitt's season. Underneath it sits a 6.30 xFIP, a 3.60 BB/9 and a 6.59 K/9, and against left-handed hitters it gets uglier: .321 average, .495 slug, 1.41 HR/9. The Mets are built for exactly that. Their lefties carry a 111 wRC+ against right-handed pitching with 44.3% hard contact. Soto bats second, Carson Benge cleans up, then Jared Young, A.J. Ewing and Brett Baty fill in behind them, all of them swinging from the left, with Lindor switching over. What stops me short of loving it is Baltimore's bullpen, which has a 2.63 ERA and 9.33 K/9 across the last 30 days and holds lefties to a .295 wOBA, so this stack wants its damage done before the sixth. Still cash.
Core pieces: Juan Soto $6,100 (L), Francisco Lindor $4,600 (S), Carson Benge $4,100 (L), A.J. Ewing $3,600 (L), Jared Young $3,000 (L)
3. Miami Marlins vs Merrill Kelly (R) | Implied Total: 4.1 | ROO Score: 4.0/10 | GPP
Forget the team name for a second and look at the platoon math. Six of the nine Marlins in this order swing from the left or switch, and Kelly's season comes apart against that side: 5.61 xFIP, 1.85 HR/9, 20.7% HR/FB, 43.8% hard contact allowed, plus a 5.34 K/9 that keeps the ball in play. Stowers leads off, Conine hits third, Jakob Marsee hits fifth, and Miami's lefties sit at a 116 wRC+ with an 18.9% HR/FB against right-handed pitching. Arizona's bullpen is solid overall and soft from the same direction, a 4.10 xFIP with 1.26 HR/9 and 3.98 BB/9 against lefties. A 4.1 implied total is why this stack stays contrarian, and it's exactly why I want it in tournaments instead of cash.
Core pieces: Kyle Stowers $4,300 (L), Griffin Conine $3,800 (L), Xavier Edwards $3,800 (S), Jakob Marsee $3,400 (L), Joe Mack $2,600 (L)
Pitchers
George Kirby (SEA) vs LAA | DK $9,000 | FD $9,000 | CASH
Kirby is the first name I write down tonight. His 4.25 ERA sits on a 3.72 xFIP and a 3.64 SIERA with a .335 BABIP, and nothing else starting today is close to that unlucky. He's stranding only 73% of runners. He walks 2.13 per 9. The Angels are implied for 3.5, the lowest total today, they're right-handed heavy, and Kirby runs a 3.01 xFIP with a 1.27 BB/9 against that side. He costs $9,000 on both sites, and if the whole field lands on him I'd understand exactly why.
Shota Imanaga (CHC) vs ATL | DK $8,800 | FD $8,900 | CASH
Imanaga's one real flaw is the home run, at 1.89 per 9 with a 17.9% HR/FB on a 45.2% fly ball rate, and tonight the wind takes that flaw away from Atlanta. Wrigley cuts home run odds 15% with the breeze pointed in, and it bites hardest against the left-handed bats that hurt him most, the ones he allows 2.34 HR/9. Atlanta is implied for 3.3, the lowest offense on the slate. I'll concede the ERA is prettier than the pitcher, because a .260 BABIP and an 82.6% strand rate both come back eventually. Not in this wind, against this lineup.
Jake Bennett (BOS) vs TEX | DK $8,300 | FD $9,100 | CASH
Bennett is the floor play and he's good at being one. He walks 1.63 per 9, gets ground balls on 66.7% of contact, and carries a 3.69 ERA that his 3.77 xFIP agrees with, so there's nothing here he has to give back. Texas is implied for 4.0 under a closed roof. The strikeouts are the catch at 7.11 per 9, and right-handed hitters have gotten 1.40 HR/9 and a 16% HR/FB off him, which matters with Jake Burger and Justin Foscue in that order. He's the most expensive arm on the FanDuel side of anyone I'm writing up, at $9,100 on a pitcher board running to $10,800.
MacKenzie Gore (TEX) vs BOS | DK $7,800 | FD $8,800 | GPP
I've now recommended a home run against this pitcher and the pitcher himself, and both hold. Gore's 4.63 ERA hides a 3.81 xFIP, a 3.52 SIERA, a .308 BABIP and 9.60 K/9, and Boston is implied for 4.0 in the same closed-roof game. Strikeouts are the whole reason to be here: he punches out 10.11 per 9 versus right-handed hitters, and Boston is stacked with them. He hands that same side 1.18 HR/9, which is the tournament part. Worth your time on price, too. He's $1,200 under Kirby on DraftKings but only $200 under him on FanDuel, so this pivot saves real money on exactly one site.
Yusei Kikuchi (LAA) vs SEA | DK $6,600 | FD $7,900 | GPP
The cheapest arm I'd put in a lineup today, and the lightest-rostered one in this section. A 4.75 ERA with a 3.88 xFIP, a .327 BABIP and 9.17 K/9 describes a better pitcher than his line does, and $6,600 puts him about $2,400 under Kirby. Seattle at 4.5 is the honest risk, because right-handed hitters carry a 20.7% HR/FB and a .471 slug against him and the Mariners swing mostly from that side. Angel Stadium being the toughest home run park on the board tonight is what makes me willing to take that swing anyway.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
Robbie Ray (SD), Negative Regression Candidate
Ray's ERA says one thing and everything underneath it says the opposite. That 3.72 sits on a 5.05 xFIP, a .261 BABIP and a 77.3% strand rate, and none of those three survive contact with altitude. The walks drive all of it: 4.74 per 9 overall and 5.03 against right-handed hitters, who also go deep on him at 1.52 HR/9 with a 49.1% fly ball rate. Colorado's righties are the ones cashing that check, and Hunter Goodman at $5,900 with a .259 ISO is where I'd look first.
George Kirby (SEA), Positive Regression Candidate
I wrote him up as a cash play above, so treat this as the same argument with the receipts attached. Nobody starting tonight has been hit harder by luck on balls in play, at .335, and a 73% strand rate sits under league, which is how a pitcher with a 2.13 BB/9 and a 53.6% ground ball rate ends up wearing a 4.25 ERA. His FIP is 3.84 and his SIERA 3.64, and both of those are the real him. What I'd watch is the left-handed split, where he gives up 1.35 HR/9 and a .471 slug, but the Angels don't run many of those out.
Final Thoughts
The build I'd submit in cash starts at Kirby and ends at Coors. Take him at $9,000, add Bennett at $8,300 as the second arm, and then spend what's left on Padres. Tatis and Machado together run $13,400, which is a lot, so Ty France at $4,900 and Luis Campusano at $4,400 are how you get a third and fourth bat out of that order without wrecking the math. Willson Contreras at $4,900 goes in next for me, and if you'd rather skip Tatis entirely, Bogaerts at $5,000 hitting eighth gives you the same offense for $2,200 less.
A couple of moving parts between now and first pitch. Colorado's wind reads 14 mph straight in right now, and that's the only reason I'm treating San Diego as a run-scoring stack rather than a power one; if it swings around, Tatis and Machado climb my board. Wrigley is the second one, because the entire Imanaga case rests on that breeze holding its direction. Atlanta going to its bullpen early behind a starter who hasn't pitched since August 2 is what could turn that game into the over the simulation likes, and Michael Harris hitting sixth gets more interesting if it does.
Tournaments are where the Miami block lives. You can put four of those lefties in a lineup for under $15,000, which is not a price you usually pay for a matchup this soft. Stowers and Conine carry the power, Jakob Marsee at $3,400 is the cheap third piece, and Joe Mack at $2,600 finishes it at a price that funds everything else on the roster. Kikuchi at $6,600 is the arm I'd put next to that group, because the $2,400 you save off Kirby is what makes room for both the Miami bats and a Padre. If you want one more contrarian bat, Jake Burger at $3,600 has an 18.6% barrel rate and a .410 ISO over his last 30 days against a lefty who gives righties 1.40 HR/9.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.