Weather to Watch
Philadelphia at New York Mets | Citi Field | Overcast, 78F | Wind: 7 mph S
Citi is the only forecast tonight that changes anything. A 7 mph breeze pushing out at 78 degrees is worth close to 10% on home run odds, which is a lot for a yard that normally eats fly balls, and it happens to land on the one starter in this game with a homer problem.
Detroit at Chicago White Sox | Rate Field | Overcast, 69F | Wind: 9 mph N
Don't let the arrow fool you. It's 9 mph pointed out, but 69 degrees and overcast take most of that back, and the net on home run odds lands near zero. Price the park factor here and ignore the sky.
Minnesota at Los Angeles Angels | Angel Stadium | Clear, 73F | Wind: 8 mph WSW
You will not fix this ballpark with a breeze. It's clear and 73 degrees with the wind out at 8 mph, which adds about 3% to home run odds, and Angel Stadium is still the toughest yard on the board for a fly ball by a wide margin. Great news if you're paying up for a pitcher here.
Daikin and Globe Life are both projecting a closed roof, which takes Houston and Texas out of the forecast entirely.
Model Bets
Kansas City +1.5 (-163) | Kansas City at Houston | Edge: +2.6%
The simulation has the Royals inside a run and a half 61.9% of the time against a market price of 59.3%, and Houston's choice of starter explains almost all of the gap. Ethan Pecko hasn't gone past 5 innings in a start yet, his last one came 12 days ago, and the Houston bullpen has walked 3.95 per 9 over the last 30 days, so Kansas City keeps getting chances in a game they're supposed to lose.
These come off the game simulation and are posted for tracking only. Nothing here is a wagering recommendation.
HR Calls
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) DK $5,900 | FD $4,100 vs Seth Lugo
Lugo has spent the whole season trying to keep left-handed hitters in the yard and he hasn't managed it. From that side he's allowed a .481 slug and a .369 wOBA on 43.3% hard contact with a 4.61 xFIP, and the 3.42 BB/9 is what turns that into a homer problem instead of a baserunner problem. Sitting at 7.38 K/9, he can't strike his way out of a 2-0 count, so the next pitch is a strike a good lefty gets to lift. Alvarez: 17.4% barrels, .303 ISO, 56.6% hard contact. FanDuel prices him at $4,100, the top of their entire hitter board tonight, so you can't pay more for a bat over there. Pay it anyway.
Carter Jensen (KC) DK $4,300 | FD $3,200 vs Ethan Pecko
I keep circling back to this one. Pecko against left-handed hitters: 7.00 xFIP, 6.75 BB/9, 3.38 HR/9, 29.4% HR/FB, .531 slug allowed. It's a small sample and I won't pretend otherwise, but every piece of it points the same way, and a young arm walking almost 7 lefties per 9 spends his night behind in counts serving fastballs over the middle. Jensen leads off, barrels 13.2% of his contact and carries a .482 ISO over the last 30 days. DraftKings wants $4,300 for that and FanDuel wants $3,200, so the FanDuel version is the one I'm buying more of.
Francisco Alvarez (NYM) DK $3,200 | FD $2,700 vs Aaron Nola
Nola is the rare starter who's handed homers to everybody. Right-handed hitters have a 30.4% HR/FB and 1.98 HR/9 against him, uglier than what the lefties have done, and his 3.07 BB/9 means he's pitching from behind often enough that the mistake shows up on schedule. Alvarez barrels 15.2% of his contact out of the 9-hole with the wind blowing out. The honest catch: his ISO across the last 30 days is .087, and that's cold. At $3,200 he doesn't need to be hot. He needs one swing.
Stacks to Target
1. Houston Astros vs Seth Lugo (R) | Implied Total: 5.2 | ROO Score: 4.8/10 | CASH
Houston is at 5.2 runs and the next-best offense on the board is at 4.4, so the direction isn't in question. What's worth knowing is the shape. This is a lefty stack. Houston's left-handed bats carry a 118 wRC+ with a .196 ISO and 44.7% hard contact against righties, their right-handed half sits at 95, and Lugo's damage comes from that same lefty side. So Alvarez, Varsho and Wade are the block that matters, and Pena, Altuve and Paredes come along for the batting-order spots rather than the matchup. Kansas City's relievers have walked 4.65 lefties per 9 across the last 30 days, so the sixth and the seventh point the same direction as the first. This will be the most popular stack on the slate. I'm on it anyway and I won't dress that up as a contrarian read.
Core pieces: Yordan Alvarez $5,900 (L), Jose Altuve $4,200 (R), Isaac Paredes $3,700 (R), Daulton Varsho $3,100 (L), LaMonte Wade $2,700 (L)
2. Detroit Tigers vs Erick Fedde (R) | Implied Total: 4.2 | ROO Score: 4.3/10 | GPP
Fedde has a 3.99 ERA and I don't believe any of it. His xFIP is 6.80, he strikes out 6.15 per 9 with a 6.5% swinging strike rate, and he's ridden a .265 BABIP and a 77.8% strand rate to get where he is. That won't hold. The leak already shows up on the righty side, where he's giving up 2.34 HR/9 with a 24.2% HR/FB, so Dingler, Torkelson and Hao-Yu Lee matter here as much as Riley Greene does from the four hole. Chicago's bullpen carries a 4.99 xFIP and 1.52 HR/9 against lefties over the last 30 days, which is a problem for them in the seventh as much as the third. Detroit is getting ignored tonight, and that's most of why I want them.
Core pieces: Riley Greene $4,900 (L), Dillon Dingler $4,400 (R), Spencer Torkelson $3,900 (R), Hao-Yu Lee $3,300 (R), Zach McKinstry $2,500 (L)
3. New York Mets vs Aaron Nola (R) | Implied Total: 4.4 | ROO Score: 4.0/10 | CASH
The breeze at Citi and the pitcher standing in it make the same argument. Nola gives up 1.90 HR/9 with a 15.9% HR/FB overall, and against left-handed hitters it's 1.88 HR/9, a 23.5% HR/FB and 4.31 BB/9, which is the version of him you want on a night the wind is out. New York's lefties hit for a 110 wRC+ with 44.6% hard contact against righties while the right-handed half is down at 83, so I want the lefties. That's Soto, Benge, Young and Baty, with Lindor turning around to that side. Philadelphia's bullpen has given up 1.72 HR/9 over the last 30 days, the highest mark of any pen in tonight's five games. Plenty of people will be here with me and I'd still rather own it than fight it.
Core pieces: Juan Soto $6,000 (L), Francisco Lindor $4,500 (S), Carson Benge $4,100 (L), Jared Young $3,100 (L), Brett Baty $2,800 (L)
Pitchers
Taj Bradley (MIN) vs LAA | DK $9,500 | FD $9,500 | CASH
Start with where he's pitching. Angel Stadium is the most suppressed park on the board by a wide margin, the Angels are implied for 3.5 runs, and Bradley misses more bats than anyone else working tonight at 10.36 K/9 with an 11.7% swinging strike rate. For once the surface line and the underlying line agree, a 3.82 ERA against a 3.75 xFIP, so none of this is borrowed. My only real worry is the 3.92 BB/9, because walks are how a strikeout arm ends up at 90 pitches in the fifth. He'll be the most popular play on the slate and I cannot build an argument against it.
Sonny Gray (BOS) vs TEX | DK $9,000 | FD $9,800 | CASH
No offense on this slate is priced lower than Texas at 3.3 runs, and that's the whole case. Now the caveat. A 2.77 ERA flatters him, since an 83.2% strand rate isn't a skill anybody keeps and the 3.51 xFIP is nearer the truth. It's still a good arm in the best available spot, with 8.07 K/9, 2.42 BB/9 and a 48.0% ground ball rate. The two price sheets disagree about him in a way that changes your build: $9,000 on DraftKings, $9,800 on FanDuel where arms stop at $10,000, so he costs you a lot more of your FanDuel cap than your DraftKings one.
Nolan McLean (NYM) vs PHI | DK $8,700 | FD $10,000 | GPP
Against right-handed hitters McLean is close to unhittable: a .241 wOBA, a .252 slug, 0.52 HR/9 and a 3.17 xFIP. That's most of this Philadelphia lineup, and the Phillies' right-handed half has been their worst version all year at an 80 wRC+ against righties. So why isn't he cash? The wind's out at Citi and Schwarber and Harper both swing from the exact side where McLean's 1.21 HR/9 and 18.6% HR/FB live. He's also the single most expensive player on FanDuel tonight at $10,000, hitters included, and that's a lot to spend on an arm with a two-batter hole in the matchup.
Framber Valdez (DET) vs CWS | DK $6,800 | FD $8,300 | GPP
DraftKings and FanDuel can't agree on what Valdez is worth. DraftKings has him at $6,800 while FanDuel wants $8,300, so on DraftKings he frees up a premium bat somewhere else and on FanDuel he frees up nothing. The profile is honest enough, a 4.03 ERA against a 4.16 xFIP with a 47.6% ground ball rate, and Chicago is implied for 4.3 in a park that plays near neutral. What keeps him out of the cash tier is the shape of the matchup: the White Sox righties carry a 114 wRC+ and a .200 ISO against left-handed pitching, and at 5.76 K/9 versus righties he's managing contact rather than avoiding it. He'll go under the radar tonight. I get why.
Walbert Urena (LAA) vs MIN | DK $8,500 | FD $8,900 | GPP
I'd like to like him more than I do. Against right-handed hitters Urena has a 3.45 xFIP with 9.63 K/9 and a .274 slug allowed, and in this park that's a genuine strikeout play with Minnesota implied for only 4.0. The trouble is the other side of the plate: 5.45 BB/9 against left-handed hitters with a 4.56 xFIP, and the Twins send Clemens, Larnach and Emmanuel Rodriguez up from there with Brooks Lee and Josh Bell switching over to it. Walks in bunches are how this becomes a 4-inning night. Tournaments only, and honestly the ballpark is why he made the list at all.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
Erick Fedde (CWS), Negative Regression Candidate
A 3.99 ERA sitting on top of a 6.80 xFIP is a gap you don't see often. The inputs explain it: a .265 BABIP, a 77.8% strand rate, 6.15 K/9 and a 6.5% swinging strike rate, which adds up to a pitcher who lets hitters put almost everything in play and has been fortunate about where it lands. He's already surrendering 2.34 HR/9 to right-handed hitters with a 24.2% HR/FB, so you can see the crack inside the good ERA instead of behind it. The Tigers are the ones who collect tonight.
Seth Lugo (KC), Positive Regression Candidate
Lugo has pitched better than a 4.99 ERA. His xFIP is 4.53, his FIP is 4.16, his BABIP is .331 and only 66.8% of the runners he's allowed have been stranded, the lowest strand rate of any starter on this slate. That combination is where you usually go shopping for a discounted arm. Tonight he draws the offense with the highest implied total on the board under a closed roof, so I'm filing it for his next turn instead of acting on it.
Final Thoughts
If I'm playing cash I start with Taj Bradley and I don't agonize over it, because the most suppressed park on the slate plus a 3.5 implied total plus double-digit strikeout stuff is about as clean as this gets. Sonny Gray is the pivot if you'd rather not be on the chalk arm, and Texas at 3.3 runs makes that an easy trade. From there I'd take four Houston bats weighted hard to the left side, with Alvarez the one I won't build without, and pay down behind the plate with Francisco Alvarez at $3,200 or Yainer Diaz at $3,300 to make the salary work.
Two things worth watching before lock. Both roofs are listed as projected closed rather than confirmed, so if Globe Life or Daikin opens up, the hitting environment in those two games changes and the Boston and Houston bats get better. And Ethan Pecko hasn't thrown more than 5 innings in a start all year with his last one 12 days back, so Houston's relievers are live from the fifth on. That matters for Kansas City's lefty block and it matters for anyone fading Houston.
For tournaments the Detroit stack is the one I'd press. Fedde's strikeout and walk rates can't hold that ERA up, the White Sox pen behind him is worse than he is, and the field isn't going to be there. The second piece I like is a four-bat Kansas City lefty block against Pecko, Jensen and Caglianone and Pasquantino and Massey, which gets you leverage on the softest arm of the night at prices that still let you afford Bradley on top. Fair warning that it pulls against the Royals run line above, which wants this game close and quiet rather than wild.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.