Weather to Watch
Washington at St. Louis | Busch Stadium | Clear, 92F | Wind: 4 mph E
92 degrees is the number that matters here. The wind's technically in at 4 mph but that's nothing, and the heat by itself is worth about 11% on home run odds. No other game on this schedule gets that much from the forecast.
Milwaukee at Baltimore | Oriole Park at Camden Yards | Clear, 81F | Wind: 8 mph N
Heat and wind mostly cancel each other out. 81 degrees adds roughly 6% and an 8 mph breeze pointed in takes about 4% back, so the net lands near 2%, and righties end up closer to zero than that.
Seattle at Colorado | Coors Field | Light Drizzle, 69F | Wind: 10 mph WSW
Coors doesn't need help and isn't getting much. It's 69 degrees with a 10 mph crosswind that nudges left-handed bats up about 5% and knocks righties down slightly, plus a 35% drizzle chance I'd keep an eye on. Altitude does the rest.
Minnesota at Los Angeles Angels | Angel Stadium | Clear, 74F | Wind: 7 mph WSW
A rare night where the forecast helps this ballpark. It's clear and 74 degrees, and the breeze finally runs toward the outfield at 7 mph, which buys about 4% on home runs and 3% on runs. That's about the best this yard offers, and it matters for the stack below.
Philadelphia at New York Mets | Citi Field | Clear, 76F | Wind: 6 mph N
Wrong direction at a yard that already eats fly balls. 76 degrees is fine, but a 6 mph breeze coming in costs right-handed hitters about 5%, and Citi is a hard place to go deep before you add anything.
Miami at San Diego | Petco Park | Mostly Clear, 71F | Wind: 8 mph NW
Tough spot to put one over the fence. 71 degrees and 8 mph running straight at the hitters cuts home run odds roughly 3% overall, and right-handed bats eat about 5% of that.
Athletics at Cleveland | Progressive Field | Overcast, 69F | Wind: 9 mph NNE
Nothing about this one helps the hitters. Overcast, 69 degrees, wind in at 9 mph, and that combination trims home run odds around 6% and runs about 3%. Real headwind for a stack I still want for reasons that have nothing to do with the sky.
Detroit at Chicago White Sox | Rate Field | Mostly Clear, 68F | Wind: 7 mph E
The coldest first pitch on the schedule, and it shows up in the numbers. 68 degrees with a 7 mph wind coming in shaves about 7% off home run odds, and righties lose closer to 9%. Lefties get off a little easier.
San Francisco at Los Angeles Dodgers | UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium | Clear, 70F | Wind: 6 mph WSW
Nothing in this one moves a decision. Clear and 70 degrees with a soft 6 mph push toward the outfield is worth maybe 2%, so price Dodger Stadium as Dodger Stadium and move on.
Four games sit out the forecast entirely: Tropicana is a dome, and Chase, Daikin and Globe Life all project closed roofs.
Model Bets
San Francisco +1.5 (+113) | San Francisco at Los Angeles Dodgers | Edge: +3.5%
The simulation puts the Giants within a run and a half at 48.3% where the market has 44.8%, a thin edge and I'd treat it that way. It also argues with the Tyler Glasnow write-up further down, since I want him for strikeouts and this wants a tight game, and both can be true when the Dodgers are only implied for 5.76.
These come off the game simulation and are posted for tracking only. Nothing here is a wagering recommendation.
HR Calls
James Wood (WSH) DK $6,200 | FD $4,200 vs Kyle Leahy
Washington's implied for 3.67 runs, which is the argument against this one, so let's get that out of the way. Everything else points the other direction. Leahy versus left-handed hitters: 3.96 xFIP, 3.90 BB/9, 1.21 HR/9, .473 slug, 49.8% hard contact allowed. He walks that side more than three times as often as he walks righties, and a pitcher who falls behind lefties that often ends up putting fastballs over the middle of the plate. At Busch in 92 degrees, that's how home runs happen. Wood: 22.2% barrel rate, .272 ISO, 60.6% hard contact. Leahy has also averaged 3.5 innings across his last 5 turns, so Wood probably gets the St. Louis bullpen too, and that group has been a 7.00 ERA mess this past month with a 5.63 BB/9 against lefties. FanDuel won't let you spend more on a hitter than the $4,200 they're asking here.
Cal Raleigh (SEA) DK $5,600 | FD $3,700 vs Ryan Feltner
Ryan Feltner is the reason a Seattle bat sits at the top of my board tonight, and there's nothing subtle about it. He's running a 5.65 ERA and a 6.75 xFIP with 1.55 HR/9 and a 16.1% HR/FB, and he does it at Coors, 5,279 feet up. Raleigh switch hits into both halves of that problem, and over the last 30 days he's put up a .460 ISO with a 16.3% barrel rate and 52.6% pull. $5,600 makes him one of the pricier bats on DraftKings and there's no getting around that, but $3,700 is the softer version of the same buy on a FanDuel board that stops at $4,200.
Lars Nootbaar (ARI) DK $2,700 | FD $2,700 vs Gerrit Cole
DraftKings has him at $2,700 hitting leadoff against a $9,000 arm, and I think they've got the price wrong. Cole's good, that isn't the argument. The argument is that lefties have taken him deep at a 1.69 HR/9 clip with a 21.7% HR/FB and a .417 slug, which is a lot of damage from one side of the plate for a pitcher this expensive. Nootbaar makes hard contact 51.8% of the time, pulls 41.2% of it, and carries a .271 ISO across his last 30 days. Chase is closed at 78 degrees, worth about 5% on home runs with no wind in the equation. Cheapest call on this page and the one I have the fewest doubts about.
Stacks to Target
1. Seattle Mariners vs Ryan Feltner (R) | Implied Total: 6.54 | ROO Score: 6.1/10 | CASH
There's the obvious stack tonight and then there's everybody else. Seattle's implied for 6.54 runs and the Dodgers are the next closest at 5.76. Feltner's the reason: a 5.65 ERA, a 6.75 xFIP and a 1.53 WHIP. Versus left-handed hitters that becomes a 5.31 xFIP, 4.98 BB/9, a .504 slug and a .376 wOBA, which is a starter who can't locate against the side Seattle is built to attack. The Mariners' lefties hit for a 102 wRC+ with a .169 ISO and an 18.3% HR/FB when a righty is on the mound, and Crawford, Canzone, Naylor, Young and Montes all swing from there, with Raleigh turning around to it. The Colorado bullpen is no place to hide either, a 5.06 ERA and 4.47 BB/9 across the last month. Everybody's going to be here. So am I.
Core pieces: Randy Arozarena $6,100 (R), Cal Raleigh $5,600 (S), Julio Rodriguez $5,000 (R), Dominic Canzone $4,500 (L), Lazaro Montes $4,200 (L)
2. Cleveland Guardians vs Mason Barnett (R) | Implied Total: 5.41 | ROO Score: 5.3/10 | CASH
Barnett's season line is the one I'd least want to defend: 7.16 ERA, 7.29 xFIP, 5.37 BB/9 and 2.69 HR/9 over 40.2 innings, with righties owning a .560 slug and a 36.8% HR/FB against him. Now the catch. His last start came on August 17, a gap of 32 days, so expect a short pitch count and maybe 2 turns through this order before somebody else is warming. That makes the Athletics bullpen half the bet, and that group's month reads 4.31 BB/9 with a 4.05 xFIP, soft enough to keep the stack alive rather than kill it. Only Seattle and the Dodgers are implied for more than Cleveland's 5.41. The 9 mph wind coming in is the piece I'd hold against it.
Core pieces: Jose Ramirez $5,100 (S), Travis Bazzana $4,300 (L), Angel Martinez $4,100 (S), Chase DeLauter $4,000 (L), Steven Kwan $3,800 (L)
3. Minnesota Twins vs Grayson Rodriguez (R) | Implied Total: 4.26 | ROO Score: 3.7/10 | GPP
The cleanest platoon spot on the board comes attached to a 4.26 implied total, and that's the trade. Rodriguez against left-handed hitters: 5.15 xFIP, 5.03 BB/9, 1.68 HR/9, .542 slug, 51.9% hard contact. Against righties he's a different pitcher at a 3.80 xFIP with 2.56 BB/9, so every bit of this edge lives on one side of the plate, and Minnesota's lefty bats carry a 104 wRC+ and a .177 ISO with an 18.7% HR/FB when a righty starts. Clemens hits third, Larnach sixth and Emmanuel Rodriguez eighth, and both Brooks Lee and Josh Bell get to turn around to that side too. The wind at Angel Stadium runs toward the outfield at 7 mph, worth about 4%. The honest problems: Minnesota has scored 2.67 runs a game over the last week, and the Angels bullpen is better than their starter at a 3.81 xFIP. That's why this belongs in tournaments and nowhere near a cash lineup.
Core pieces: Ryan Jeffers $4,700 (R), Kody Clemens $4,400 (L), Luke Keaschall $4,200 (R), Josh Bell $3,800 (S), Trevor Larnach $3,500 (L)
Pitchers
Dylan Cease (TOR) vs TEX | DK $11,300 | FD $10,700 | CASH
There isn't much of a debate here and I'm not going to invent one. Cease: 2.38 ERA, 2.60 xFIP, 2.37 SIERA, 12.79 K/9, 15.3% swinging strikes. His surface line and his underlying line have agreed all season, which is more than half the arms on this board can say. Texas is implied for 3.33 under a closed roof, and Cease holds left-handed hitters to a .244 wOBA with 13.09 K/9. Price is the only real objection: nobody on either site costs more, $11,300 on DraftKings and $10,700 on FanDuel, which is the very top of their pitcher board. Spend the money. His 3.90 BB/9 keeps the pitch count honest and his last 5 turns average 5.7 innings, so this isn't a workhorse profile, just a very good one.
Tyler Glasnow (LAD) vs SF | DK $10,500 | FD $10,200 | CASH
Nobody draws an easier assignment tonight. San Francisco is implied for 2.24 runs, close to half a run below anyone else on the slate, and that alone would make somebody a cash play. Glasnow happens to be excellent too, at 11.32 K/9 with a 2.93 xFIP and a 2.52 SIERA, and he cuts that xFIP to 1.96 with 13.09 K/9 against right-handed hitters. Workload is the thing that stops me calling it free. He's made 11 starts this season and his last 5 turns average 4.6 innings, so you're buying strikeout rate here and the innings are a coin flip. He's the chalk arm tonight and I don't have a counter.
Cade Cavalli (WSH) vs STL | DK $9,300 | FD $10,300 | CASH
The two sites can't agree on what Cavalli is worth, and the gap changes your build. DraftKings wants $9,300 while FanDuel wants $10,300, which is $100 more than they're charging for Glasnow. The profile earns the DraftKings number: 3.12 ERA, 3.16 xFIP, 2.71 SIERA, 10.63 K/9, 2.63 BB/9, and a .307 BABIP that says none of the good result is borrowed. St. Louis is implied for 3.83, and the catch is who they run out there. Four left-handed bats in that order, and lefties are Cavalli's softer side at a 3.39 xFIP and a .309 wOBA against the 2.83 and .274 he posts versus righties. Add the 92 degrees at Busch and the 1.04 HR/9 he gives lefties, and Alec Burleson hitting third is the at-bat I'd worry about.
Nick Pivetta (SD) vs MIA | DK $8,800 | FD $8,300 | GPP
Everything around this start cooperates. Miami at 2.71 implied runs, in Petco, with the wind blowing straight at the hitters, which is about as kind a set of conditions as any pitcher gets tonight. And Pivetta's rates hold up their end: 11.16 K/9, 2.16 BB/9, 0.36 HR/9, a 2.94 xFIP and a 2.27 SIERA. The reason he isn't in the cash tier is volume. He's made 6 starts and thrown 25 innings this season, his last 5 turns average 4.4 innings, and 5 innings doesn't leave many chances to pile up strikeouts. Nobody's on him, which is the part that makes it a reasonable tournament swing.
Dustin May (MIL) vs BAL | DK $7,500 | FD $8,400 | GPP
That 4.50 ERA is the worst thing about May and it's mostly not his doing. Underneath it sit a 3.79 xFIP, a 3.54 SIERA, a .317 BABIP and a 67.2% strand rate, and he's been good against right-handed hitters at a 3.55 xFIP with 1.26 BB/9 and a .281 wOBA allowed. Baltimore is implied for 3.71. So why only tournaments? His last 5 turns average 3.3 innings, and no DFS pitcher score survives getting pulled in the fourth. If Milwaukee lets him run to 6 he wins you a tournament. I wouldn't put much on it.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI), Negative Regression Candidate
A 2.63 ERA across 178.1 innings reads like an ace season until you check what's holding it up. His xFIP is 4.29, his BABIP is .274, and he's left 81.3% of his baserunners on base, which is well above where that number usually settles. Take that away and you get a 6.82 K/9 with a 7.4% swinging strike rate. That's a contact pitcher, and the profile stops working the moment those balls start finding holes. New York gets the first crack at collecting, and Aaron Judge at $5,900 is where I'd start if you want a piece of it.
Dustin May (MIL), Positive Regression Candidate
Same pitcher as above, same argument, and here are the numbers underneath what I already said. May's ERA sits 0.71 above his xFIP, his .317 BABIP is among the highest of anybody starting tonight, and a 67.2% strand rate is well under where pitchers settle over a full season. Look at the 0.72 HR/9. He isn't giving up the kind of damage a 4.50 ERA implies, he's giving up base hits that fall in. Baltimore at 3.71 is a fine spot to buy that. Three and a third innings a start is not, and that gap is the entire reason he's a tournament arm instead of the discounted cash play his rates make him look like.
Final Thoughts
Glasnow is where my cash roster begins. San Francisco at 2.24 runs is the softest offense anybody draws tonight and $10,500 is a lot, but 11.32 K/9 against a lineup that can't hit is how you buy a floor. Cavalli at $9,300 is the second arm I'd pair with him on DraftKings specifically, because that discount doesn't exist on FanDuel. From there I want four Seattle bats, and I'm not submitting a lineup without Raleigh in it. Lars Nootbaar at $2,700 is what makes the math close, since a leadoff hitter at that price facing a righty with a home run problem is the cheapest real playing time on the board.
Two things I'd check before lock. Coors has a 35% drizzle chance in the forecast, and a delay there hurts a Seattle stack more than it hurts anything else I've written up, so watch it. The other is Mason Barnett's workload. His last start was 32 days back, and if the Athletics have somebody warming by the second inning, the Cleveland stack gets graded on a bullpen instead of a starter, which pushes Ramirez and Bazzana up my list and the bottom of that order down.
Tournaments are where the Minnesota block lives. Grayson Rodriguez has been two separate pitchers depending on which side of the plate he's facing, and you can put Clemens, Larnach, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Josh Bell together for $14,700 with the wind finally running toward the outfield at Angel Stadium. Pair them with May at $7,500; coming down off Glasnow frees $3,000, which is most of what that block costs. One more nobody will have: Riley Greene at $4,700 draws David Sandlin, who's given left-handed hitters a .536 slug and a 33.3% HR/FB, and Detroit at 3.88 runs is low enough that the field walks right past him.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.