Weather to Watch
Washington at St. Louis | Busch Stadium | Overcast, 96F | Wind: 3 mph WSW
Nothing else on this schedule comes close. It's 96 degrees and the wind is doing nothing at 3 mph, so heat that extreme is worth roughly 16% on home run odds by itself. Both dugouts get to use it.
Seattle at Colorado | Coors Field | Overcast, 66F | Wind: 10 mph NNW
This is the forecast that changes a decision. Coors is still Coors, but the conditions fight it: 66 degrees, a 10 mph wind pointed in, home run odds down about 8% overall and nearer 10% for righties, with a 28% rain chance on top. Altitude wins the argument by a much smaller margin than usual.
Minnesota at Los Angeles Angels | Angel Stadium | Clear, 76F | Wind: 7 mph SW
A breeze finally points the right way in Anaheim. Clear, 76 degrees, 7 mph carrying toward the fence, and that combination adds roughly 5% on home run odds and 3% on runs. Friendliest version of this ballpark you'll see all month.
San Francisco at Los Angeles Dodgers | UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium | Clear, 74F | Wind: 6 mph WSW
Modest help, and it lands where I want it to. Clear at 74 degrees, 6 mph working behind the hitters, close to 5% added on home runs overall, and left-handed bats collect nearer 6% of that.
Miami at San Diego | Petco Park | Mostly Clear, 74F | Wind: 8 mph NW
This one cuts the other way. 74 degrees is comfortable enough, but 8 mph pointed at the plate trims home run odds about 1% overall and 3% for right-handed bats, and Petco was already a hard yard to elevate in.
Three closed roofs on the schedule: Globe Life, Daikin and Chase. Those games get graded on park factor and nothing else.
Model Bets
Under 11.5 (-120) | Seattle at Colorado | Edge: +2.9%
The simulation lands at 55.1% for the under where the devigged market sits at 52.2%, and the wind and the 66 degrees are doing that work rather than any opinion about Jose Quintana. I'm stacking Seattle in this same game below, so the two takes pull against each other. I'd rather show you that than bury it.
Over 7 (-112) | San Francisco at Los Angeles Dodgers | Edge: +2.4%
A 7-run total is short for a game where one side is priced at 5.35 by itself, and the simulation gets to 52.8% against a market number of 50.4%. The Giants are running a bullpen game behind Yunior Marte, which is how a total this low ends up climbing.
These come off the game simulation and are posted for tracking only. Nothing here is a wagering recommendation.
HR Calls
Ben Rice (NYY) DK $5,600 | FD $3,800 vs Brandon Pfaadt
Pfaadt has one hole and it's enormous. Against left-handed hitters: 1.61 HR/9, a 24.5% HR/FB, a .451 slug. Against righties: 0.32 HR/9. Same pitcher, and nearly all of his damage arrives from one direction. Rice leads off from there with a .295 ISO, a 16.2% barrel rate and 44.6% pull, and the Chase roof is shut at 78 degrees, adding about 5% before anybody swings. DraftKings wants $5,600 and FanDuel wants $3,800 against a hitter ceiling of $4,200, so he's an expensive bat on both sheets, just less painfully so on FanDuel.
Daylen Lile (WSH) DK $4,500 | FD $3,100 vs Michael McGreevy
The heat gets the headline and the pitcher closes the argument. McGreevy misses almost nobody at 6.30 K/9 with an 8.2% swinging strike rate, and lefties have hit him for a 4.71 xFIP, 1.20 HR/9, a .435 slug and 43.4% hard contact. A contact pitcher working in 96-degree heat at Busch is a bad pairing for him. Lile hits second with a .225 ISO on the season and a .352 mark over the last 30 games, and Washington's lefties carry a 113 wRC+ and an 18.8% HR/FB against right-handers. That's the genuine mid-tier ceiling swing on this board.
Joc Pederson (TEX) DK $3,100 | FD $2,700 vs José Soriano
Soriano turns into a different pitcher depending on which box the hitter stands in. Righties get a 3.13 xFIP, 9.95 K/9 and 0.37 HR/9. Lefties get a 4.22 xFIP, 4.23 BB/9, 1.22 HR/9 and a 22.0% HR/FB. That walk rate is what converts into home runs here, because a starter who works from behind against one side has to come back over the plate, and Texas lefties are waiting on it. Pederson leads off with a .251 ISO, a .310 figure over the last 30 games and 50.8% hard contact. At $3,100 he's the easiest of these three to fit.
Stacks to Target
1. Seattle Mariners vs Jose Quintana (L) | Implied Total: 6.64 | ROO Score: 6.1/10 | CASH
Start with the total, because it's enormous. Seattle sits at 6.64 implied runs and nothing else on this board is within a run of it. Quintana's season reads 5.27 ERA, 5.58 xFIP and a 1.51 WHIP over 41 innings, and at 4.39 K/9 he keeps the ball in play 5,279 feet up. His last logged start was 118 days back, so I'd expect a limited pitch count and Colorado relievers by the fourth, and that group carries a 4.78 xFIP with 1.31 HR/9. Now for the part I don't love. Seattle's lefties own an 86 wRC+ with a .101 ISO when a southpaw starts, the righties are worse at 82, and tonight's conditions are holding this game down. I'm buying 6.64 anyway and tilting hard toward the right-handed half of that order.
Core pieces: Randy Arozarena $6,200 (R), Cal Raleigh $5,700 (S), Julio Rodriguez $5,100 (R), Dominic Canzone $4,600 (L), Josh Naylor $4,400 (L)
2. Los Angeles Dodgers vs Yunior Marte (R) | Implied Total: 5.35 | ROO Score: 5.6/10 | CASH
San Francisco doesn't really have a starter tonight. Marte has thrown 14.2 innings all season across 3 appearances and DraftKings prices him at $4,000, so this is a bullpen game wearing a starter's name. Grade it on relievers instead: the Giants pen sits near the bottom of tonight's groups at a 4.96 xFIP, and Los Angeles sees fresh arms from the third inning on rather than a starter finding a rhythm. The Dodger lefties do the heavy lifting here at a 122 wRC+ with a .176 ISO and a 17.3% HR/FB versus righties, and the 6 mph push toward the fence is worth about 6% to that side. This is the chalk stack and I'm comfortable being on it.
Core pieces: Mookie Betts $5,200 (R), Freddie Freeman $5,100 (L), Max Muncy $5,000 (L), Teoscar Hernandez $4,800 (R), Kyle Tucker $4,500 (L)
3. Washington Nationals vs Michael McGreevy (R) | Implied Total: 3.89 | ROO Score: 3.8/10 | GPP
Washington at 3.89 implied runs is the case against, and I'm taking it anyway. Busch at 96 degrees is the friendliest place to hit anybody draws tonight, up around 16% on home runs, and McGreevy is the arm standing in it at 6.30 K/9 with an 8.2% swinging strike rate. From the left side he's surrendered a .435 slug, a 14.4% HR/FB and 43.4% hard contact, and Wood, Lile, Ortiz and Abrams fill the first four spots from exactly there. The Cardinals bullpen carries a 4.89 xFIP with 1.30 HR/9, so the middle innings argue the same way the first three do. Ownership should stay light at that implied total, and these prices let you fit five of them.
Core pieces: James Wood $6,300 (L), CJ Abrams $5,700 (L), Daylen Lile $4,500 (L), Dylan Crews $4,000 (R), Abimelec Ortiz $2,600 (L)
Pitchers
Tarik Skubal (LAD) vs SF | DK $10,800 | FD $10,800 | CASH
The Giants are implied for 1.65 runs, which is about as low as a team total goes, and that number alone puts a pitcher in play. Skubal earns the spot rather than just inheriting it: a 2.57 xFIP, a 2.24 SIERA, 10.65 K/9, 1.54 BB/9, a 13.7% swinging strike rate, and an ERA that has tracked those numbers all season. He's gone 6.6 innings a start over his last 5 outings, which is what separates him from most of this page. He's the heaviest chalk on the slate. Fine by me.
Cam Schlittler (NYY) vs ARI | DK $11,500 | FD $11,200 | CASH
That 1.95 ERA is doing some acting. A .253 BABIP and an 83.7% strand rate sit beneath it, and neither survives a longer sample, so treat the 2.69 xFIP as the honest figure. A 2.69 xFIP is still excellent. And 11.14 K/9 with a 31.6% strikeout rate and 13.6% swinging strikes is stuff, not a hot streak. Arizona sits at 3.27 with the roof shut, and he's gone 6.5 innings a start over his last 5 outings. At $11,500 on DraftKings and $11,200 on FanDuel he tops both price sheets, so something else on your roster has to get cheap.
Reid Detmers (LAA) vs MIN | DK $8,900 | FD $10,000 | CASH
The two price sheets are $1,100 apart on him, which decides what kind of roster he belongs on. DraftKings asks $8,900 while FanDuel asks $10,000 against a pitcher ceiling of $11,200, so he's a discount on one site and close to full freight on the other. The underlying line justifies the DraftKings price either way: a 3.22 xFIP, a 2.68 SIERA, 10.29 K/9, 2.38 BB/9, a .277 BABIP and a 73.5% strand rate, so the ERA is telling the truth about him. Minnesota is implied for 3.68 in a yard that eats fly balls, and Detmers runs a 3.08 xFIP with a 30.0% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters. My one reservation is that 7 mph wind blowing out.
Eury Pérez (MIA) vs SD | DK $8,400 | FD $8,500 | GPP
Petco with the wind coming in is most of why he made this list. Pérez misses bats at 9.68 K/9 with a 3.49 SIERA, and San Diego's righty-heavy order has to elevate into an 8 mph headwind that costs right-handed bats about 3%. So why tournaments only? He walks 4.00 per 9, and righties have hit him for a 4.34 xFIP with 1.62 HR/9 and a 23.4% HR/FB. Walks stacked on a home run leak against the side he's facing is how this start ends in the fourth. Ownership should sit lighter than the matchup deserves, which is the whole appeal.
Casey Mize (SD) vs MIA | DK $6,700 | FD $7,800 | GPP
Cheapest arm here and the matchup earns the spot. Miami is implied for 3.11 runs, second-lowest on the slate, in a park working against its own hitters. Mize carries a 3.70 ERA against a 4.07 xFIP and a 3.64 SIERA, so the rates are ordinary rather than broken, and 2.25 BB/9 means he isn't walking himself out of the game. Length is the problem. He's averaged 4.5 innings over his last 5 starts, and a fifth-inning hook caps whatever score you were hoping for. Right-handed hitters also own a .485 slug and an 18.8% HR/FB off him, which describes most of that Miami order. Save him for the build where you paid up twice at hitter.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
Cal Quantrill (TEX), Negative Regression Candidate
You do not often see a 2.91 ERA sitting on a 5.73 xFIP. Nobody else working tonight carries a spread anything like that. Check the supports: a .243 BABIP, a 79.0% strand rate, 6.74 K/9 and a 7.7% swinging strike rate across 108.2 innings. He lets almost everything get put in play and the results have landed kindly so far. Toronto at 4.26 implied runs is the offense in position to collect, and I'm more interested in their bats than in the fade itself.
Joe Ryan (MIN), Positive Regression Candidate
There's a better pitcher hiding under Ryan's 3.85 ERA. His xFIP is 3.40, his FIP is 3.69, and he leaves only 68.9% of his baserunners on base, a lower figure than any other starter tonight. He's also at 9.86 K/9 with a 1.96 BB/9 over 133.2 innings, which is a strikeout and walk profile the run prevention hasn't caught up to. Why I'm filing this instead of playing it: Anaheim has the wind out at 7 mph and Ryan allows 1.35 HR/9, which is the exact kind of night that keeps an ERA elevated.
Final Thoughts
Skubal is where my cash build starts, and a Giants lineup sitting at 1.65 runs makes $10,800 easy to swallow. Reid Detmers is the DraftKings-specific companion, because $8,900 there and $10,000 on FanDuel are two different decisions about one pitcher. Then I'd take four Mariners bats tilted to the right-handed side, since 6.64 implied runs is more than a run clear of anything else, and Abimelec Ortiz at $2,600 is the piece that makes the salary math close.
Rain is first on my watch list. Denver is listed at 28%, and a delay there does more damage to a Seattle roster than to anything else on this page. After that it's how quickly Colorado reaches for the bullpen. Quintana has 41 innings logged all season and nothing since May, so if a reliever is up in the third, the top of that Seattle order matters much more than the bottom, and I'd shift toward Arozarena and Rodriguez accordingly.
Washington is the block I'd press in tournaments. Busch at 96 degrees is the best hitting spot of the night, McGreevy can't miss bats, and Wood, Abrams, Lile and Ortiz cost $19,100 together, which leaves plenty of room for Schlittler or Skubal on top. Pair it with Ben Rice at $5,600 if you want a second left-handed bat aimed at a home run problem. And if spending twice at pitcher isn't for you, Casey Mize at $6,700 into a Miami lineup priced at 3.11 is the cheapest way to free up a full stack.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.