Weather to Watch
Toronto at Baltimore | Oriole Park at Camden Yards | Overcast, 72F | Wind: 9 mph NE
Camden is the only yard tonight built to help hitters, and tonight it helps less than usual. Overcast at 72 degrees with 9 mph coming in trims home run odds roughly 4%, a touch more against left-handed bats. Still the friendliest of the three by a wide margin.
Washington at Detroit | Comerica Park | Overcast, 64F | Wind: 8 mph NE
Coldest start of the night at 64 degrees, and the 8 mph crosswind isn't doing much for anybody. Call it 4% off home run odds overall, though the split is what I'd act on: righties lose close to 5% while left-handed bats give back barely 2%.
Minnesota at San Francisco | Oracle Park | Overcast, 58F | Wind: 11 mph W
Keep a tab open on this one. It's 58 degrees, which kills carry, but 11 mph is pushing out and that returns about 8% on home run odds. Net the two and you land a hair above neutral, with scoring up close to 3%. At Oracle, neutral counts as help.
HR Calls
Pete Alonso (BAL) DK $5,700 | FD $3,600 vs Trey Yesavage
Yesavage hasn't logged a start in 48 days. That's a reason to buy Baltimore bats, not a reason to avoid them. Toronto's relievers own the middle innings of this game, and over the last month they've given righties 1.11 HR/9 on 5.12 BB/9. Alonso hits second. Season ISO .262, last month .292, hard contact 53.0%, and he's the only bat in this section clearing half on that last one. He's the second-priciest hitter on FanDuel at $3,600 against a $4,200 ceiling, so this costs you real money on both sheets.
Kody Clemens (MIN) DK $4,500 | FD $3,000 vs Blade Tidwell
Tidwell is two different pitchers and the version lefties see is a wreck. Against left-handed hitters: 5.96 BB/9, a 6.33 xFIP, 2.10 HR/9, a 23.1% HR/FB and a .381 wOBA. A 5.96 BB/9 is a command problem, and a starter buried in hitters' counts all night eventually has to groove one. Clemens bats third, pulls 47.3% of his contact, and carries a .248 ISO that sits at .286 across the last month. The honest knock is the ballpark, because Oracle is the hardest place on the schedule to cash this in, and $4,500 buys a real mid-tier bat rather than a discount.
Spencer Torkelson (DET) DK $3,600 | FD $2,900 vs DJ Herz
DraftKings is a step behind on how Torkelson is swinging it. Torkelson over the last month: .386 ISO, 13.7% barrels, 47.7% pull. That ISO beats anybody else in this section by close to 100 points. Washington's bullpen is the soft spot in this game: 5.46 xFIP against righties, 5.11 BB/9, 1.46 HR/9 this past month. That's a group that walks itself into trouble and then has to challenge somebody. Comerica does take about 5% off right-handed power tonight, and $3,600 is still a price I'll pay for that bat.
Stacks to Target
1. Detroit Tigers vs DJ Herz (R) | Implied Total: 4.92 | ROO Score: 5.2/10 | CASH
Let's not get clever on a three-game board. Detroit tops it at 4.92 implied runs, three quarters of a run clear of the next team, and Herz has no logged major league innings this season, so I'm grading this on the lineup and the relievers rather than pretending to know the arm. Washington's pen has been the worst relief group on this schedule over the last month at a 6.85 ERA and a 5.61 xFIP on 5.62 BB/9, and it leaks to both sides: 5.50 xFIP against lefties, 5.46 against righties. The Tigers have scored 6.25 runs a game over the last week, their top five carry a 118.8 wRC+, and their right-handed bats own a 19.2% HR/FB against righties. Plenty of people will be here with me. I don't mind the company on a slate this small.
Core pieces: Kevin McGonigle $5,300 (L), Riley Greene $5,000 (L), Dillon Dingler $4,400 (R), Gleyber Torres $4,100 (R), Spencer Torkelson $3,600 (R)
2. Minnesota Twins vs Blade Tidwell (R) | Implied Total: 4.17 | ROO Score: 4.2/10 | CASH
Oracle Park is the reason to pass and I'm buying this anyway. Tidwell's overall line reads 4.58 ERA, 6.04 xFIP, 3.56 BB/9 across 53.1 innings, and one side of the plate accounts for nearly all of it. Righties have managed a .210 wOBA off him. Lefties sit at a .381 wOBA with a 6.33 xFIP behind it, and Minnesota runs Clemens, Bell, Rodriguez and Jenkins from there with Brooks Lee able to turn around too. Against right-handed pitching those lefties own a 105 wRC+, an 18.9% HR/FB and 40.9% hard contact. San Francisco's relievers are no rescue either, at a 5.49 xFIP with 5.83 BB/9 and a .392 wOBA against lefties this past month.
Core pieces: Ryan Jeffers $4,700 (R), Kody Clemens $4,500 (L), Luke Keaschall $4,300 (R), Brooks Lee $3,900 (S), Emmanuel Rodriguez $3,000 (L)
3. San Francisco Giants vs Zebby Matthews (R) | Implied Total: 3.83 | ROO Score: 3.3/10 | GPP
Nothing on this side of the ball projects for meaningful ownership, and the case underneath is better than that suggests. The Giants' left-handed hitters are the strongest platoon group on the board against right-handed pitching at a 117 wRC+, with a .268 average, a .168 ISO and a 17.3% strikeout rate, and the starter they draw has exactly one hole. Matthews surrenders 1.70 HR/9 to lefties with a 20.0% HR/FB and a .458 slug. Gilbert, Eldridge, Lee, Hill, Cavanaugh and McCray fill six of the nine slots from that side, the wind is pushing out at 11 mph, and the Minnesota bullpen has given lefties a .367 wOBA with 4.96 BB/9 over the last month. The implied total is why this stays a tournament play, and five of these bats fit for $16,800.
Core pieces: Bryce Eldridge $4,000 (L), Jung Hoo Lee $3,700 (L), Turner Hill $3,400 (L), Drew Gilbert $3,200 (L), Grant McCray $2,500 (L)
Pitchers
Shane Baz (BAL) vs TOR | DK $8,000 | FD $8,500 | CASH
This isn't a hard one. Baz has the split that matches the order in front of him, and the Blue Jays are down for 3.67 runs. Righties have hit .238 off him with a .275 wOBA, a 3.67 xFIP and 0.50 HR/9, and Springer, Guerrero, Kirk, Okamoto and Clement give him five of those to work through. Baz: 4.11 ERA, 4.14 xFIP, .314 BABIP, 68.9% strand rate. Those four numbers agree with each other, so what you see is what he's actually been. He'll be the most popular arm on the board and he's earned it.
Zebby Matthews (MIN) vs SF | DK $7,100 | FD $8,600 | CASH
The two sheets disagree about him and DraftKings is the side I want. FanDuel asks $8,600 against a $9,000 ceiling while DraftKings asks $7,100, so the same start eats a fifth of your roster in one place and a good deal less in the other. Matthews: 4.75 ERA, 4.05 xFIP, 3.80 SIERA, 1.65 HR/9, 16.1% HR/FB. Read that in order and the gap between the first two numbers is explained entirely by the last two. Tonight he takes that flaw to Oracle Park, which strips roughly a quarter off left-handed home run odds, and the San Francisco righties he'll see hit for an 88 wRC+. A 2.74 K/BB ratio covers the rest.
Trey Yesavage (TOR) vs BAL | DK $8,500 | FD $9,000 | GPP
I could argue this one either way and I'd still keep him out of cash. Yesavage is making his first start in 48 days, so a capped pitch count and a quick hook are the reasonable expectation no matter how good the stuff is, and he'd averaged 4.07 innings across his last 5 starts even before the gap. The surface line flatters him too. His 3.67 ERA sits over a 4.21 xFIP and a .218 BABIP, and his HR/FB rate has been zero all season. The stuff is real: 8.79 K/9, 13.8% swinging strikes, and Baltimore's righties whiff 24.8% of the time against right-handed pitching. I'd use him as a tournament dart and let somebody else pay the highest price on either site for a cash anchor.
Blade Tidwell (SF) vs MIN | DK $6,200 | FD $7,100 | GPP
Everything I wrote about Tidwell and left-handed hitters above is real, and Minnesota will run four or five of them out. Now the other half: against righties he's at a 2.88 xFIP with 8.46 K/9, 1.30 BB/9 and a .210 wOBA, and a 58-degree first pitch at Oracle takes the carry out of anything he does leave up. He's the cheapest of the four arms here at $6,200 and the lightest-owned of them too. If the Twins card tilts right-handed, this is the contrarian route to two bats you couldn't otherwise afford.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
Trey Yesavage (TOR), Negative Regression Candidate
A 0.0% HR/FB rate across 93.2 innings is not a skill, it's a coin that has landed the same way 18 straight times. Stack a .218 BABIP and a 73.7% strand rate on top of that and the 3.67 ERA makes sense, but the 4.21 xFIP and the 4.08 FIP are the honest version of him. He also gives up 4.44 BB/9, so the runners are already aboard when a mistake leaves the yard. Baltimore's left-handed bats collect on this one if anybody does, because Yesavage has handed that side 4.85 BB/9 and a 4.77 xFIP. Samuel Basallo at $3,900 is the cheap way to aim at it.
Zebby Matthews (MIN), Positive Regression Candidate
Matthews owns the biggest gap on this board in the other direction. A 4.75 ERA over a 4.05 xFIP and a 3.80 SIERA, a 69.6% strand rate that's the lowest of anybody starting tonight, and a 16.1% HR/FB that nobody sustains. He gives up 2.81 BB/9 and strikes out 20.5%, which is a competent starter's profile hiding behind a bad number. Most buy-low arms need you to wait. This one doesn't, because the park tonight already takes about a quarter off home run odds.
Final Thoughts
My cash build opens with Baz and Matthews, and $15,100 for both leaves real room underneath on a three-game board. Four Detroit bats go next, because 4.92 implied runs against a 6.85 ERA relief corps is the cleanest thing to buy tonight, and McGonigle and Greene are the two I won't leave out. Torkelson at $3,600 balances the salary from there, and if you need one more dollar back, Emmanuel Rodriguez at $3,000 does it while keeping you pointed at Tidwell.
Two things I'd check before lock. Detroit has two arms priced at $7,800 on DraftKings and River Ryan is the one listed to start, so don't let the other name confuse a late build. The second is the Oracle wind, because the whole case for a San Francisco stack rests on 11 mph pushing out at a 58-degree first pitch, and if that dies down the ballpark takes the game back.
The Giants are the block I want in tournaments. Five of those bats cost $16,800, ownership on the whole side projects near the bottom of the slate, and the argument underneath is as strong as anything here: the best left-handed group against right-handed pitching, facing the one arm tonight who gives that side 1.70 HR/9. Pair it with Tidwell for the full contrarian build, or with Josh Bell at $3,700 if you'd rather own both halves of a game the market has at 8 runs. If you're not paying full freight twice at pitcher, Tidwell at $6,200 hands you back $1,800 against Baz, and that's one more expensive bat in the lineup.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.