Weather to Watch
Los Angeles Angels at Athletics | Sutter Health Park | Mostly Clear, 82F | Wind: 7 mph SW
Sacramento is the one stop tonight where every piece lines up. Mostly clear, 82 degrees, 7 mph carrying toward the outfield, and the combination is worth roughly 12% on home run odds on top of a yard that already plays small.
Cincinnati at Atlanta | Truist Park | Overcast, 85F | Wind: 1 mph NNE
Hottest first pitch on the schedule at 85 degrees with 1 mph of wind, worth roughly 9% on home run odds. There's an 18% rain chance attached, which I'd log and otherwise ignore.
Minnesota at San Francisco | Oracle Park | Clear, 62F | Wind: 15 mph W
Stiffest wind of the night at 15 mph and for once it's aimed the right way. 62 degrees strips carry back out, but the net still lands near 6% up on home runs and close to 5% on scoring. At Oracle I'll take that.
Arizona at Colorado | Coors Field | Overcast, 75F | Wind: 11 mph W
An 11 mph crosswind is taking a bite out of the altitude, and that is not how this ballpark usually works. Call it 4% up on home runs, and at Coors that reads as a downgrade. Buy the 11-run total, not the forecast.
San Diego at Los Angeles Dodgers | Dodger Stadium | Clear, 69F | Wind: 6 mph WSW
Clear at 69 degrees with 6 mph drifting out, worth about 2%. That's nothing. Chavez Ravine plays itself tonight.
Houston at Seattle | T-Mobile Park | Overcast, 65F | Wind: 6 mph N
Roof projects open at 65 degrees with 6 mph pushing back in, which is roughly 6% off home run odds and 2% off scoring. Hold that thought until the pitcher section.
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City | Kauffman Stadium | Mostly Clear, 70F | Wind: 9 mph NE
Mildest temperature in the suppressed group at 70 degrees, and the 9 mph coming in still takes roughly 10% off home run odds. Kauffman never needed the extra help swallowing fly balls.
Tampa Bay at New York Yankees | Yankee Stadium | Overcast, 62F | Wind: 9 mph NE
The nightcap goes off at 62 degrees with 9 mph running in, which knocks 12% off home run odds. The short porch is still the short porch. Nothing else in this one is on the hitters' side.
Miami at Chicago Cubs | Wrigley Field | Overcast, 59F | Wind: 11 mph NE
Coldest and harshest setup on the main slate: 59 degrees with 11 mph straight in off the lake takes about 29% off home run odds. That's the biggest suppression anywhere today and it changes how I read the starter here.
Globe Life is the only roof tonight and it projects shut, so Texas and the Mets get the same game whatever the sky does.
Model Bets
Over 9.5 (-102) | Los Angeles Angels at Athletics | Edge: +2.3%
The simulation cashes this 50.6% of the time against a market that devigs to 48.3%. Small gap, small conviction, but it agrees with everything else I like about Sutter Health Park tonight: Yusei Kikuchi walking people and Brady Basso handing the ball off early.
Miami +1.5 (-126) | Miami at Chicago Cubs | Edge: +1.4%
54.7% to cover in the sim against 53.3% in the market. This one argues with my Shota Imanaga writeup below, because a Cubs blowout is exactly what I want there and this play needs Miami to lose by a run at most.
Seattle -1.5 (+141) | Houston at Seattle | Edge: +1.3%
41.0% against a 39.7% market. Same read as the Logan Gilbert blurb further down, only expressed as a margin: Houston is down for 3.21 runs and I'd rather bet how big the gap gets than bet who wins.
These come off the game simulation and are posted for tracking only. Nothing here is a wagering recommendation.
HR Calls
Ketel Marte (ARI) DK $5,200 | FD $3,700 vs Kyle Freeland
Freeland has one enormous hole and Arizona has its whole order pointed at it. Right-handed hitters have taken him deep at 2.37 HR/9 with a 24.2% HR/FB, a .591 slug and 47.5% hard contact, which is a lot of evidence for one season. Marte turns around to that side hitting second, with a .272 ISO and 50.0% hard contact of his own. A 7-run implied total at Coors against that split. Pay it.
Henry Bolte (ATH) DK $4,500 | FD $3,200 vs Yusei Kikuchi
Kikuchi can't find the plate, and that's the whole reason this one is here. He hands right-handed hitters a 4.43 BB/9 with a 20.0% HR/FB and 46.1% hard contact, and a starter who's behind in the count that often has to put a fastball over the middle eventually. Bolte leads off with 53.8% hard contact, a 15.4% barrel rate and a .462 ISO across the last 30 days. Put him in the friendliest ballpark and the friendliest forecast anybody draws tonight and $4,500 is honest money.
Jake Burger (TEX) DK $3,100 | FD $3,000 vs Sean Manaea
A cleanup hitter at $3,100 is a pricing mistake and I'm glad to take the other side of it. Manaea against righties: 4.91 xFIP, 1.73 HR/9, 17.1% HR/FB, .515 slug, 43.8% hard contact. Burger over the last 30 days sits at a .500 ISO with a 19.2% barrel rate and 51.0% hard contact, which is the loudest month of anybody in this section. FanDuel's hitter board tops out at $4,400 today, so $3,000 there doesn't buy you nearly as much relief as $3,100 does on DraftKings.
Stacks to Target
1. Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kyle Freeland (L) | Implied Total: 7.00 | ROO Score: 6.2/10 | CASH
7 implied runs, and Atlanta at 5.98 is the next closest. Freeland is why: a 6.39 ERA with 1.90 HR/9 and a 20.0% HR/FB, and right-handed bats are doing all of it at 2.37 HR/9, a .401 wOBA and 47.5% hard contact while lefties see a manageable 3.64 xFIP. Arizona's righties hit for a 112 wRC+ with a 12.3% HR/FB against southpaws, and Moreno, Arenado and Lawlar come from that side with Marte, Perdomo and Vargas able to turn around. Colorado's relievers have posted a 5.14 ERA over the last month with a 4.78 xFIP and 4.72 BB/9 against righties, so the back half of this game is no rescue either. The field knows about this one. At an 11-run total I'll share.
Core pieces: Ketel Marte $5,200 (S), Gabriel Moreno $4,800 (R), Geraldo Perdomo $4,400 (S), Nolan Arenado $4,100 (R), Ildemaro Vargas $4,000 (S)
2. Atlanta Braves vs Brandon Williamson (L) | Implied Total: 5.98 | ROO Score: 6.4/10 | CASH
It's been 20 days since Williamson's last logged start, so a short outing is the sane expectation and the relievers matter as much as the arm here. That's fine by me. Cincinnati's pen has run a 5.85 ERA with 1.53 HR/9 over the last month and gets worse against left-handed hitters at a 5.04 xFIP and 4.49 BB/9. Williamson is broken in both directions himself, just differently: righties draw a 6.46 BB/9 behind a 6.20 xFIP, while lefties have gone deep at 2.08 HR/9 with a 30.0% HR/FB. Atlanta's left-handed bats carry a 105 wRC+ with 44.0% hard contact against southpaws, which is unusual, so Olson, Baldwin and Harris stay in the build instead of getting platooned out. 85 degrees at Truist and no breeze to speak of is the second-best hitting weather of the night.
Core pieces: Ronald Acuna $5,500 (R), Matt Olson $5,000 (L), Drake Baldwin $4,400 (L), Austin Riley $3,300 (R), Sean Murphy $2,700 (R)
3. Athletics vs Yusei Kikuchi (L) | Implied Total: 4.75 | ROO Score: 4.2/10 | GPP
Kikuchi is the softest real starter on the board and he's throwing it in the friendliest ballpark. Right-handed bats have put up a 4.13 xFIP against him with 1.27 HR/9, a 20.0% HR/FB, a .470 slug and 46.1% hard contact, and the 4.43 BB/9 is what turns that into crooked numbers, because a pitcher living behind in the count has to come back over the plate. The Athletics answer with a righty-heavy card carrying a 104 wRC+, a 19.6% HR/FB and 38.8% hard contact against southpaws, in 82 degrees with 7 mph carrying out at Sutter Health Park. The catch, and I'm not burying it: the Angels' bullpen has held righties to a 2.89 xFIP with 0.44 HR/9 over the last month, so the innings after Kikuchi leaves get harder rather than easier. Weigh that. This is still one of the lightest-owned lineups on the board, and the five bats below add up to $20,800.
Core pieces: Zack Gelof $5,500 (R), Shea Langeliers $4,900 (R), Henry Bolte $4,500 (R), Jonah Heim $3,200 (S), Tommy White $2,700 (R)
Pitchers
Shota Imanaga (CHC) vs MIA | DK $9,000 | FD $9,000 | CASH
Miami is implied for 2.24 runs and no other lineup tonight is even under 3. That by itself would put Imanaga in cash builds, but the weather is what makes him the cleanest arm on the board. His one real flaw is the long ball, 1.82 HR/9 with a 17.9% HR/FB, and Wrigley tonight takes about 29% off home run odds with 11 mph blowing in at 59 degrees. His BB/9 is 1.98, so there's nothing free on the bases either. Tonight he gets to pitch with his worst outcome mostly off the table.
Logan Gilbert (SEA) vs HOU | DK $9,500 | FD $9,600 | CASH
Only Miami has a lower implied total than Houston's 3.21, and a lineup that quiet does half the job for whoever's throwing to it. Gilbert does the other half: 9.81 K/9, 2.33 BB/9, a 2.84 SIERA. His 3.69 ERA sits above a 3.32 xFIP, so if anything he's been a shade unlucky rather than propped up. Home runs are the leak, 1.42 HR/9 on a 14.8% HR/FB, and 6 mph blowing in at T-Mobile is the setting where that leak costs the least. The two sites have him within $100 of each other, $9,500 against $9,600, which almost never happens.
Drew Rasmussen (TB) vs NYY | DK $9,800 | FD N/A | CASH
There's no such thing as a must play in baseball, but this is about as close as tonight gets. Rasmussen: 2.73 ERA, 3.03 xFIP, 0.93 WHIP, 1.58 BB/9. Nothing in that line is fighting with anything else in it, which is what I want out of a cash arm, and a .255 BABIP with a 76.9% strand rate isn't the sort of luck that collapses inside one start. Left-handed hitters, the side that usually cracks a right-hander, have managed a .260 wOBA and a 2.89 xFIP against him. The Yankees sit at 3.73 implied with 9 mph blowing in at 62 degrees. FanDuel doesn't carry the nightcap, so this is a DraftKings-only play.
Taj Bradley (MIN) vs SF | DK $10,000 | FD $9,500 | GPP
The best strikeout rate on this board belongs to the priciest arm on it, and I still can't anchor cash to him. Bradley misses bats at 10.41 K/9 and San Francisco is implied for 3.43, which is the easy part of the argument. The hard part is that Oracle has the only wind tonight working for hitters, 15 mph out, and Bradley's left-handed split is where he bleeds: 4.41 BB/9, 1.50 HR/9, a 20.5% HR/FB. San Francisco fills a lot of its card from that side. Spend the $10,000 in tournaments.
Michael King (SD) at LAD | DK $8,800 | FD $9,100 | GPP
Two numbers that aren't really King's have carried his season. A .255 BABIP and an 82.0% strand rate are the entire distance between a 3.03 ERA and a 4.20 xFIP. He's a competent starter having a charmed year, and the Dodgers at 4.17 implied runs aren't the lineup where charm holds up. He stays on the page because almost nobody will roster him and he's averaged 6.40 innings over his last 5 starts, so the volume is there if the night breaks right. Tournament dart.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
Michael Soroka (ARI), Negative Regression Candidate
A 3.46 ERA over a 5.19 xFIP is the widest gap in that direction on this board, and Soroka is carrying it into Coors Field. His 73.9% strand rate and .292 BABIP are both ordinary. What's holding the ERA down is a 2.25 BB/9 keeping traffic off the bases while the contact underneath says more of it should have scored. Colorado collects on this if anybody does, and the left side of their order is where to aim, because Soroka holds right-handed hitters to a 2.89 xFIP while lefties have taken a .325 wOBA and a 4.19 xFIP off him. I'm stacking the other half of this game and I'd own pieces of both.
MacKenzie Gore (TEX), Positive Regression Candidate
Gore's 4.69 ERA is lying to you and the components say otherwise: a 3.92 xFIP, a 3.61 SIERA, a .302 BABIP and a 70.9% strand rate that sits near the bottom of tonight's field. He strikes out 9.37 K/9, and a 3.76 BB/9 is the actual flaw rather than anything about run prevention. Tonight that goes under a closed roof against a Mets offense implied for 3.43 runs, at $8,300 on DraftKings and $8,600 on FanDuel. Usually a buy-low arm asks you to be patient. This matchup pays out tonight.
Final Thoughts
Cash opens with Imanaga at $9,000 and Gilbert at $9,500, and the bats I want most are cheap enough that paying twice still works. Four Arizona pieces go next, because 7 implied runs against a starter giving righties a .591 slug is the least complicated thing on this board, and I'm not building one of these without Marte and Moreno in it. Sean Murphy at $2,700 and Ha-Seong Kim at $2,000 get the money back to even while keeping you aimed at Williamson.
Two things worth a look before you build. The Dodgers have three arms priced on DraftKings tonight, Roki Sasaki at $8,200, Justin Wrobleski at $7,700 and Shohei Ohtani at $5,500, and Sasaki's last logged start was 27 days ago with Ohtani's going back to early July, so I'd leave that game alone at pitcher rather than guess at anybody's workload. The other is Truist, where an 18% rain chance hangs over the hottest first pitch of the night, with Coors carrying 12% behind it.
In tournaments I'm loading up on the Athletics. Gelof, Langeliers, Bolte, Heim and White come to $20,800 together in the best home run environment anybody draws, against a starter handing righties a 20.0% HR/FB on a 4.43 BB/9. You can reach the same ballpark from the other dugout too, since Jose Siri at $4,000 and Zach Neto at $5,600 lead a card that swings right-handed top to bottom, though Brady Basso has averaged 2.47 innings over his last five so most of that side is a bet on the Athletics' relievers rather than the starter.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.